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Journal by khallow
I ran across a recent study ("Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues", published July 2022) that had some interesting results. The study asked subjects to rate their opposition to some scientific claim that is generally held to be true (a "consensus"). They then asked the subjects to evaluate their own knowledge in the area and finally tested the subjects on their actual knowledge of the subject. This resulted in a three value data set of "opposition", "subjective knowledge", and "objective knowledge". The opposition questions are listed in the above study.

For example, one on GM foods:

"Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques."

The primary conclusion is that for a number of claims that are generally held to be true by consensus, opposition to those results show interesting correlations: opposition correlates negatively with objective knowledge (what the final test indicated that the subject knew about the field), and positively with subjective knowledge (what the subject thought they knew about the field). Those who were most opposed tended to exhibit a large gap between what they knew and what they thought they knew.

Here's the list of subjects and then I'll get to the punch line:

  • GM foods
  • Vaccination
  • Homeopathic medicine
  • Nuclear power
  • Climate change
  • Big bang
  • Evolution

Which one wasn't like the others?

Climate change!

The question was in the same vein as the rest:

Most of the warming of Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century has been caused by human activities.

Unlike every other field listed in this research, there was a slight positive correlation between opposition to the claim and objective knowledge of the subject (see figure 2).

What other consensus viewpoints are out there where agreement with the consensus correlations with greater ignorance of the subject? Economics maybe?

 

Reply to: Re:Trees vs khallow

    (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 23 2022, @01:09PM

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 23 2022, @01:09PM (#1268102)

    The evidence is presented in the linked journal papers that discuss each of the three events that were listed. In short, because you don't want to click through and actually look at the papers, you're denying that there's any evidence. It's plainly obvious that you haven't even looked at any of the three papers that are linked on that webpage, and because you couldn't be bothered to click the links, you're pretending there's no evidence provided. That is incredibly lazy, and your reason to claim that no evidence was provided is asinine and disingenuous. The evidence is literally two clicks away from this comment: one to https://www.ametsoc.org/ams/index.cfm/publications/bulletin-of-the-american-meteorological-society-bams/explaining-extreme-events-from-a-climate-perspective/three-extreme-events-that-were-not-possible-in-a-preindustrial-climate/ [ametsoc.org] [ametsoc.org], the second to one of the three journal papers. You do understand how to identify and click links on a webpage, don't you? The linked articles are BAMS articles, which are intended to be more accessible to people with a general science background than, say, an article in Journal of Climate. BAMS is, of course, still a peer-reviewed journal.

    I see you present no evidence. If it's easy for me to do, then it probably is easy for you to do as well. As a result, I think there's a slight error in your claim as to who is being dishonest here.

    Because they're simulations not actual observations of reality. Reliance on models instead of reality is a common symptom of the problems we have with climatology.

    This is vague and unscientific. It is not a useful criticism. The models are verified against past climates, and generally do a good job of simulating the past. In this case, the models are simulating climates of the past and present day, which exactly what they've been verified against. This is not the same as the scenario of simulating future climates, which have more uncertainty because the models are being extrapolated into conditions for which there's currently no data to verify them against. But attribution studies involve simulating past and present climates. Models have been verified in these climatic conditions. They do a good job of replicating them.

    No, it's quite scientific. The huge problem being missed here is that it's quite easy to build models that fit against existing data, but extrapolate to anything you want. And this practice of claiming that something is too extreme for non-climate change scenario is worse than the scenario of simulating future climates because there is no way to check the claim.

    Now, you could say that there's a problem with a specific model. There are flaws and biases in each model, sure. But you'd also be wrong to involve that argument, because the researchers were using data from CMIP5. It's a collection of data from many models [llnl.gov], so they didn't just rely on one model.

    Now, we're making a silly argument that because there's a lot of models, then the models must be right. The obvious rebuttal here is confirmation bias. For example, we have a several decade history [soylentnews.org] of that mass of models understating carbon sinks - models running hot and making predictions that overshoot actual warming but interpreted otherwise once one adjusts the model for actual greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    Your criticism is unscientific and would be dismissed out of hand if you provided it as a peer reviewer.

    Note, that doesn't make it a false claim. Or for that matter, something that would be dismissed out of hand if I were to present it as a peer reviewer. If the journal really would ignore my concerns about paper two, for example, then they would be heavily biased. It's such an elementary concern.

    TL;DR: These studies are simulating climates of the recent past. The simulations can be trusted because the models have been verified against those climates. There are many models, so the results aren't because one single model is flawed.

    No, they haven't been so verified. You merely claim they have. There's only one genuine test here - testing against unknown, future data rather than fitting to existing data. And as I noted above, they're failing that test collectively.

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