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I ran across a recent study ("Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues", published July 2022) that had some interesting results. The study asked subjects to rate their opposition to some scientific claim that is generally held to be true (a "consensus"). They then asked the subjects to evaluate their own knowledge in the area and finally tested the subjects on their actual knowledge of the subject. This resulted in a three value data set of "opposition", "subjective knowledge", and "objective knowledge". The opposition questions are listed in the above study.

For example, one on GM foods:

"Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques."

The primary conclusion is that for a number of claims that are generally held to be true by consensus, opposition to those results show interesting correlations: opposition correlates negatively with objective knowledge (what the final test indicated that the subject knew about the field), and positively with subjective knowledge (what the subject thought they knew about the field). Those who were most opposed tended to exhibit a large gap between what they knew and what they thought they knew.

Here's the list of subjects and then I'll get to the punch line:

  • GM foods
  • Vaccination
  • Homeopathic medicine
  • Nuclear power
  • Climate change
  • Big bang
  • Evolution

Which one wasn't like the others?

Climate change!

The question was in the same vein as the rest:

Most of the warming of Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century has been caused by human activities.

Unlike every other field listed in this research, there was a slight positive correlation between opposition to the claim and objective knowledge of the subject (see figure 2).

What other consensus viewpoints are out there where agreement with the consensus correlations with greater ignorance of the subject? Economics maybe?

 

Reply to: Re:Trees vs khallow

    (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:16PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:16PM (#1268312)

    You're making shit up like you always do.

    You find the most outlandish prediction you can, then claim it's somehow representative of what climatologists are predicting. You say the outlandish prediction is false, then pat yourself on the back and proclaim you're smarter than everyone else when the outlandish prediction fails.

    Sea level rise was not projected to rise a meter by 2030. Even the most extreme scenario at https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/publications/techrpt83_Global_and_Regional_SLR_Scenarios_for_the_US_final.pdf [noaa.gov] only projects sea levels rising by 0.24 m between 2000 and 2030. Going back to a 2004, https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2003RG000139 [wiley.com] doesn't come even close to projecting a sea level rise of a meter or even half a meter between 1990 and 2030.

    The fact that you accurately identified outlandish prediction as false in your game does not mean you're smarter than all of the climatologists. Anyone with half a clue could look at climatologists' actual projections and see that nobody was projecting a meter of sea level rise between 1994 and 2030. If you really had a track record of being right about predicting climate, you would not have chosen an outlandish example like this to validate your supposed expertise. Since you chose this example, it's a pretty good sign that you're not right about very much at all.

    The fact that you're patting yourself on the back as being right on the basis of refusing to click three links demonstrates that your ignorance is willful. You don't want to look at the studies because you're afraid they might challenge your views. It's like a toddler putting their hands over their ears and screaming "la-la-la, I can't hear you." Your childish outburst and refusal to look at the studies doesn't mean you're right.

    You've been right on two things: COVID-19 and Ukraine. That's it. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut once in awhile.

    My take? You have a room temperature IQ. We're just not sure if the units are degrees Fahrenheit or degrees Celsius.

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