Stories
Slash Boxes
Comments

SoylentNews is people

The Fine print: The following are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.

Journal by khallow
I ran across a recent study ("Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues", published July 2022) that had some interesting results. The study asked subjects to rate their opposition to some scientific claim that is generally held to be true (a "consensus"). They then asked the subjects to evaluate their own knowledge in the area and finally tested the subjects on their actual knowledge of the subject. This resulted in a three value data set of "opposition", "subjective knowledge", and "objective knowledge". The opposition questions are listed in the above study.

For example, one on GM foods:

"Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques."

The primary conclusion is that for a number of claims that are generally held to be true by consensus, opposition to those results show interesting correlations: opposition correlates negatively with objective knowledge (what the final test indicated that the subject knew about the field), and positively with subjective knowledge (what the subject thought they knew about the field). Those who were most opposed tended to exhibit a large gap between what they knew and what they thought they knew.

Here's the list of subjects and then I'll get to the punch line:

  • GM foods
  • Vaccination
  • Homeopathic medicine
  • Nuclear power
  • Climate change
  • Big bang
  • Evolution

Which one wasn't like the others?

Climate change!

The question was in the same vein as the rest:

Most of the warming of Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century has been caused by human activities.

Unlike every other field listed in this research, there was a slight positive correlation between opposition to the claim and objective knowledge of the subject (see figure 2).

What other consensus viewpoints are out there where agreement with the consensus correlations with greater ignorance of the subject? Economics maybe?

Display Options Threshold/Breakthrough Reply to Comment Mark All as Read Mark All as Unread
The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 21 2022, @05:39PM (4 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 21 2022, @05:39PM (#1267812)

    If the time frames were that much longer than the current one, then trees would not have evolved a response to deal with it.

    They would have evolved for a different climate or grown in a different location. Having an evolved response to a sudden event means that sudden event has occurred often enough, over a long enough time, to exert a selection pressure on those trees.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 21 2022, @10:06PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 21 2022, @10:06PM (#1267845)

    Droughts do not require global climate change. Not that trees reslonding to droughts proves climate change, but it is another data point amidst the overwhelming evidence that climate change is happening and is due to human pollution. Even if we are in a natural warmung period the greenhouse gases are accelerating the process which will cause excess hardships and much less time for life to adapt. Poor silly conservatives, so caught up with their own egos and politics they cannot see past their own noses.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 22 2022, @09:29PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 22 2022, @09:29PM (#1268027)

      Do you experience any cognitive dissonance holding both these views?
      - These droughts occur often enough that trees have an evolved response.
      - This drought is due to unprecedented climate change.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 23 2022, @12:22AM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 23 2022, @12:22AM (#1268055) Journal
        Well, I have no idea what's going on with the grandparent AC, but in a century span, if a normal, non-climate change climate were to have 20 years of drought, and instead it were 50 years of drought with some sort of rational physics model that explains why climate change should result in European/UK drought, then it would be reasonable to claim that most of that drought were due to climate change. Here, I just don't see any such overt argument so can't say what their reasons could be for the claim.
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @06:30PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @06:30PM (#1268263)

        Lol, can't help someone that thinks those are contradictory statements.