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One is not like the others

Journal by khallow
I ran across a recent study ("Knowledge overconfidence is associated with anti-consensus views on controversial scientific issues", published July 2022) that had some interesting results. The study asked subjects to rate their opposition to some scientific claim that is generally held to be true (a "consensus"). They then asked the subjects to evaluate their own knowledge in the area and finally tested the subjects on their actual knowledge of the subject. This resulted in a three value data set of "opposition", "subjective knowledge", and "objective knowledge". The opposition questions are listed in the above study.

For example, one on GM foods:

"Consuming foods with ingredients derived from GM crops is no riskier than consuming foods modified by conventional plant improvement techniques."

The primary conclusion is that for a number of claims that are generally held to be true by consensus, opposition to those results show interesting correlations: opposition correlates negatively with objective knowledge (what the final test indicated that the subject knew about the field), and positively with subjective knowledge (what the subject thought they knew about the field). Those who were most opposed tended to exhibit a large gap between what they knew and what they thought they knew.

Here's the list of subjects and then I'll get to the punch line:

  • GM foods
  • Vaccination
  • Homeopathic medicine
  • Nuclear power
  • Climate change
  • Big bang
  • Evolution

Which one wasn't like the others?

Climate change!

The question was in the same vein as the rest:

Most of the warming of Earth’s average global temperature over the second half of the 20th century has been caused by human activities.

Unlike every other field listed in this research, there was a slight positive correlation between opposition to the claim and objective knowledge of the subject (see figure 2).

What other consensus viewpoints are out there where agreement with the consensus correlations with greater ignorance of the subject? Economics maybe?

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The Fine Print: The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.

  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday August 24 2022, @10:39PM (5 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday August 24 2022, @10:39PM (#1268303) Journal
    My take is that this bout of climate change obsession will end in a decade or two. They've had half a century to show a urgent emergency that required massive societal changes and they already failed. The developing world isn't going to go along with this mess without serious bribes from the developed world, and the latter just doesn't have that kind of wealth to throw around - both to pay off the developing world and to shut down so much of the developed world as well.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:24PM (4 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:24PM (#1268316)

    My take is that you invested your entire retirement savings into fossil fuel companies, and you're afraid that if people believe the truth about global warming, you'll lose your life savings. That's why you spend so much time shilling about global warming. Boomers like you will be dead before the worst effects of climate change are realized. You selfishly want to make sure you can continue to profit from your investments in the fossil fuel industry while leaving future generations to suffer the consequences.

    You're not here to discuss the topic in anything resembling an honest manner. I'm right, and I continue to be right.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:27PM (2 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:27PM (#1268319) Journal

      My take is that you invested your entire retirement savings into fossil fuel companies, and you're afraid that if people believe the truth about global warming, you'll lose your life savings.

      Cool narrative bro.

      You're not here to discuss the topic in anything resembling an honest manner. I'm right, and I continue to be right.

      Just here to fight to the forces of ignorance. That would be you, bro.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:30PM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday August 24 2022, @11:30PM (#1268322)

        Just here to fight to the forces of ignorance. That would be you, bro.

        If you actually believe that and the other bullshit you're posting, you might want to see a doctor and get checked for cognitive decline.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday August 25 2022, @12:21AM

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday August 25 2022, @12:21AM (#1268337) Journal

      My take is that you invested your entire retirement savings into fossil fuel companies, and you're afraid that if people believe the truth about global warming, you'll lose your life savings.

      Just to add to this brilliant gem: of course, I would post anti-climate cooties here since that will cause our many, wealthy thought leaders tol stampede to big oil and bail me out. The plan is flawless. I'll name my third mansion after you!