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It's not a war, but a Special Military Operation. And that operation goes so well, it is now time not to call a general mobilisation, but only a partial mobilisation.
On Wednesday September 21, at 09:15h, Russian President Vladimir Putin made the announcement that was rumored since days: all members of the Russian Army's reserve, as well as anybody who has ever served in the Russian military, are called upon to do their duty in the Special Military Operation, fighting the Nazi-Ukrainian forces.
Refusing to report will result in 15 years prison. Skipping out during service will result in 15 years prison. And surrendering to the enemy without being incapacitated will result in 15 years prison, as will not trying to flee from a POW camp.
The move is not unexpected. The Ukrainian counter-offensive triggered the first comments on Russian television about the need for mobilisation, and it was just waiting until Russian regional elections had passed, last week. On top of that, the recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation didn't go to plan, apparently.
First there was India's Modi publicly stating that this ain't a time for war, and that he had repeatedly asked to stop the whole thing. Then there was a falling out over the same subject with both Turkey and Kazakhstan, to which Putin apparently reacted very agressively. All combined might perhaps explain the rather confused press conference afterwards.
Immediately after the end of the SCO Summit, one Nikolai Patrushev stepped on a plane to meet with Chinese colleagues to discuss strategic stability and public security and law and order. He returned after 2 days, on the 19th. On the 20th, a statement by Putin was announced for the evening, but that was postponed for reasons unknown.
In a first phase, 300,000 reservists are being called up but, as Russia's Kommersant business newspaper noted, the total number of people who will be called up is secret, hence open to modification.
Do I need to add that it all ended with the threat to use nuclear weapons?
Official announcement here.
(Score: 3, Informative) by quietus on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:09PM (6 children)
It is not only the self-proclaimed DNR and LNR republics that are going to hold a referendum. The same referendum will also be held in Russian-occupied territories in the Kherson region and around Zhaporozye.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:18PM (3 children)
Correction: it is not the same referendum in those last 2 regions. Voters there will be asked 2 additional questions: whether they want to want to withdraw their region from Ukraine territory and declare their region an independent state.
To ensure that the low bar of 50% in favour is reached (memories of Brexit, perhaps), voting authorities can decide it is too unsafe to count the votes in place, and instead move the counting to a central location.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday September 21 2022, @08:48PM (2 children)
Ignore the Russian guys at the entrance with AKs.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @08:34PM
It's the ones waiting in the voting booths to 'help you vote correctly' that you need to watch out for..
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @01:22AM
In addition to the Russian loyalist guards they will have two clear plastic receptacles, the respective votes go in different ones, and only the no votes in the no box count while any yes vote in either box counts, if it is like the one in Crimea.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:49PM (1 child)
Somehow I predict the answer will be 96%! It's somehow always 96.....
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @09:21AM
Gotya there -- Izvestia reports it will be 97%.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:14PM (9 children)
https://www.newsweek.com/how-break-arm-becomes-top-google-trend-russians-face-putin-ukraine-war-conscription-1744830 [newsweek.com]
(Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:54PM (1 child)
As of a few hours ago those protests have resulted in hundreds of arrests. Being arrested for protesting can result in 15 years in prison so those guys are not fucking around.
Ukraine conflict: Russia arrests hundreds at anti-war protests [bbc.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:32PM
Those arrested are being conscripted. Just when we don't think the Russian military can do worse, Putin instills mutiny in the ranks.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:59PM (6 children)
I'm hearing that even morons who adopted Z symbolism are having epiphanies when they get handed their conscription papers.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:08PM (5 children)
There's some pretty crazy stories coming out on various social medias from folks who claim to be on the ground. Probably just some propaganda and/or wanting to believe; but shit might seem to be heating up....
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @02:42PM (3 children)
Well, the enlistment offices are. [kyivpost.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:34PM (1 child)
Vell, comwade. Just asking for a fwiend, vhat happens vhen you put a Molotov in a home-made twebuchet?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @06:17PM
The molecules become fully mobilized, just how Vlad likes it.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @08:32PM
Again? I suppose it shouldn't be surprising since the penalty for protesting or draft dodging is 15 years, but arson is only five to ten.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @06:44PM
Old Russian Proverb: Break a Leg!
(Score: 3, Interesting) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @07:46AM (18 children)
(Good that nobody reads the links in a sub, so I still have room to make some silly comments.)
The escalation does not lie in the mobilisation of the Russian population for the Special Military Operation. That was expected and would be necessary just to freeze the front.
The real escalation is in officially declaring that the "collective West" is the real enemy. From the horse's mouth:
Now, a scenario.
Russia uses the current mobilisation to replace well-trained troops in the Far East with drafted people, moving the experienced military to the Ukrainian front, supported by modern tanks -- no T-34s anymore but, say, T-14s [wikipedia.org] -- and long range artillery [rbth.com]. The Ukrainians are pushed back to beyond the Dnjepr. What next?
Well, take the whole South, ofcourse, i.e. the Black Sea coast. Then what? Well, fulfill the whole original aims of the operation and take Kiev too. By then you've conquered more than half the country anyway, so why not go further and take the rest of the country?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @12:46PM (11 children)
Well, why didn't they do that in the first place? My bet is that Putin couldn't get the political support to do that. Such a move might lose enough support in the military that he can't stay in power.
And now, that Ukraine is well armed with both a ridiculous number of anti-tank missiles and longer range artillery, as well as an experienced military that already has chalked some wins on the battlefield, I think it'd be a real mess for the Russians. They can to some extent afford to throw away what they're losing now. If they start losing that advanced gear and experienced personnel, it'll create serious strategic weaknesses for years to come.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @02:50PM (9 children)
Well, why didn't Stalin do that at the start of Operation Barbarossa? And as your talking about political support by the military, can you point to at least a couple of military men who grew rich under Putin and belong to his Kremlin inner circle? Forgive my stupidity here, but I only see FSB, former bodyguards and 'self-made' men there.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @05:53PM (5 children)
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @09:12AM (4 children)
Is that why the Ukraine operation runs so well, because the military professionals are in charge?
(Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Saturday September 24 2022, @12:35PM
One of the things missed about a democracy is that the military can run with a much longer leash, because a military leader who takes initiative and succeeds on the battlefield doesn't automatically become a threat to the government. Meanwhile in Russia, such a leader might become the nucleus for a coup. There are plenty of Russian military leaders, but they don't have incentive to stand out and risk getting culled by Putin (or bombed by Ukraine).
It remains that the invading army was remarkably unskilled for the important task they were performing. Even now, they can't seem to do a lot of standard military tactics like combined arms, which used to be a Russian competence.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @05:11AM (2 children)
The Ukrainian military runs so well because they follow modern military science. The US and the West have devoted a large amount of resources in learning from the past to avoid repeating its failures. The failures of Russia go well beyond Putin acting as generalissimo and go to the very core of their military culture, organization, strategy, tactics, and doctrine.
For the best example of that, look at how Russia and Ukraine have so far taken completely different approaches regarding the Dnieper River, among other major offenses.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @12:43PM (1 child)
[citation-needed]
Dubya made a fine mess in both Afghanistan and Iraq. ISIS and the resurgence of the Taliban have proven the War on Terror to have been a complete failure.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @09:58PM
The War on Terror may have been a failure but that isn't the military's fault. They did exactly what they were supposed to do and quickly had the Taliban and Saddam on the run. The problem is that US diplomacy failed and the hearts and minds weren't desirous of the outcome the US wanted to impose. The only reason things went as relatively well as they did is precisely because the military managed to prop up the situation from complete collapse.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @09:36PM (2 children)
Because he was more interested in weeding out thoughtcrime than in having a functioning military. If Putin is following in Stalin's military boots, then it's going to hurt for Russia.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @08:13AM (1 child)
Putin did the same -- since 2016 political commissars were added to the army, to ensure the correct political thought. You might notice the similarity with the Chinese system.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday September 24 2022, @12:36PM
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @03:12AM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @01:58AM (5 children)
> Russia uses the current mobilization to replace well-trained troops in the Far East with drafted people, moving the experienced military to the Ukrainian front,
One potential problem I see with your scenario is the relationship between Putin and Xi. Xi certainly seems to have the upper hand now and if Russia removes most of their troops on the Chinese & Mongolian borders, what's to stop China from waltzing in. This could be in parallel to the way that China has persistently put settlers and troops into their western neighbors for years (think Tibet, but plenty of others as well).
The other problem of course is that the experienced Russian troops in the Far East have it (I'm guessing here) relatively easy now as "security". How many will defect or go AWOL if they find out they are being sent to a hot war?
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @08:54AM (1 child)
Your opinion vis-a-vis the Putin-Xi relationship is shared by the vast majority of analysts. I've been closely following Chinese and Russian propaganda since the start of covid, and I think that opinion is wrong.
We thought the Cold War ended with the fall of the Wall, and the subsequent opening up of China (and so, but with a wary mind, did the local population). We were mistaken, because the conflict isn't about ideology, but about superiority.
The best comparison is with the conflict between Germany and France at the end of the 19th century. In China and Russia's vision, 1989 is comparable to the end of the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71. They've signed the peace resolution at Strassbourgh, but have been preparing for World War I since.
All warfare is deception.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @04:59PM
You aren't comparing like. Superiority is a war goal. Ideological differences are fault lines along which a conflict can occur. Having said that, I agree that this conflict isn't ideologically driven.
But I don't agree that Russia can cooperate with China to the extent you describe. After all, it's only now when their war effort is in a dire strait that those experienced troops are being moved to Ukraine. That indicates to me considerable lack of trust in China.
If Russia falls into chaos as a result of this, I wouldn't be surprised to see China nibble a little at Russian territory - in support of the Ukrainians, of course.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Monday September 26 2022, @06:12AM (2 children)
Warning: all links direct from the horse's mouth, that is .globaltimes.cn
The fact that Xi has now Russia's resources for cheaps (or for chips [globaltimes.cn] if you like it better), as the prices for the Russia's gas are going to go into free fall next year.
Opening a conflict with Russia is counterproductive to the Chinese today [globaltimes.cn].
It may happen for the Chinese to walk in, if Russia's flow of cheap resources start to diminish because of a "reckless manager", it will be "just good business sense" to replace him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @03:37AM (1 child)
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china [ustr.gov]
What's a few billion between friends(?) Russia and China?
Not much compared with China trade with USA:
3/4 million USA'ins supported by the trade with China. Compare with the population of the whole western region of Russia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Far_East#Population [wikipedia.org]
> Given the vast territory of the Russian Far East, 6.3 million people translates to slightly less than one person per square kilometer, making the Russian Far East one of the most sparsely populated areas in the world.
China's won't get too excited about trading with their Russian neighbors.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:05AM
The dynamics of the things are the one telling more of the story of what you can expect in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @08:01AM (7 children)
I've noticed that runaway has been downmodded strongly. Mod points aren't there to express your feelings though.
Anyway, I think that his downmods are unfair: he makes several interesting points which should be answered far better than with claiming he's a Russian shill.
Take, for example, the point he makes about the risk of nuclear war/retaliation. How effective are our own missile defenses against such an event? Will those defenses cover Eastern Europe, Western Europe, or only the United States? Or nobody? And in response: would it be better to respond with convential weapons instead of ICBMs? After how many kilotons does the probability of nuclear winter reach a non-acceptable threshold? What is that probability?
Similarly, about the cost of war, and the effects of inflation. How big will those costs be in 6 months? a year? 5 years? How will the economy [need to] change? What about popular support? How many Americans actually support the war in Ukraine? What price are Americans willing to pay? How much funding are they willing to give to weapons for Ukraine? to Taiwan?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @12:39PM
His presentation is one-sided. It doesn't discuss the risk of nuclear war in an appeasement scenario. I think that's even worse in the long term.
For anyone confident in this strategy, keep in mind that it worked due in huge part to the glaring incompetence of the Russians. A better executed, better supplied strategy might well have ended the war in a few weeks with the Russians well positioned to execute the strategy again anywhere from Finland south to Turkey.
Consider also a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. China can afford a great deal of incompetence and still capture Taiwan easily (depends on how the US responds). I do find it disturbing how they're policing [bbc.com] discussion of the war in a way that supports the Russian side. Pro-Ukrainian viewpoints are being suppressed. That may mean that they're steering long term public discourse to support an invasion of Taiwan.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @02:32PM (4 children)
That is just pro-Russian propaganda and everyone has the idea of nukes in mind. There is no point in discussing niclear options because that would be MAD. Runaway has been a pro-Russian stooge at least since Don the Con and his GOP cronies became Putin's #1 fans. Whine if you'd like, Runaway has made his positions very clear.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @02:42PM (3 children)
So you're saying that the best policy is to keep my eyes shut stiff and put fingers in my ears? I've tried doing that but nearly got overrun by a tank.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @05:43PM (2 children)
No, the best policy is for you to not be so naive. Runaway has been shilling for Russia long enough for anyone who has been paying attention to see for themselves. Any more questions?
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @08:27AM (1 child)
Yes, and quite a lot. For your convenience I've summed them up already in my original post.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @10:11PM
And you need to learn what JAQing off is (if you haven't already), especially when no one you are asking could possible answer your alleged question.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 26 2022, @04:10AM
That's an opinion.
However, it's one with which I disagree.
That said, I haven't downmodded Runaway in this journal entry.
Everyone should just read at -1 and the mods don't matter WRT visibility.
And that's my opinion. Feel free to disagree.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @02:38PM (8 children)
It is predicted that a coalition of right-wing parties will win this weekend's elections in Italy. While they've been very careful to claim to support EU sanctions against Russia, one of them couldn't resist shooting his mouth off [brusselstimes.com].
Combined with the Republicans carrying Congress after the next elections, this doesn't bode well for keeping up support for Ukraine.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @03:39PM (7 children)
The current crop of sanctions seems much more oriented on helping Putin keep his cannon fodder from running away, than on really hitting him and his where it would hurt.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @05:25PM (6 children)
How so?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday September 24 2022, @03:00AM (5 children)
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @05:08AM (4 children)
Some countries are banning Russian "visitors", but the BBC reports that Germany is inviting all to apply (with screening naturally). Finland and Georgia also seem to be accepting many "draft dodgers", with long traffic jams at border crossings.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @12:12PM (3 children)
The coordinated border closure for Russians by Poland and the Baltic states (leaving only Finland which wanted the same but failed to make a run-around their constitution in time) was on September 19th. Putin's mobilization order was written on September 20th. One hell of a coincidence, isn't it?
Also remember the VISA and MasterCard sanctions. Do you believe it is Putin or his cronies who need these things for paying for their living outside Russia?
A number of other things working for the same apparent goal can be pointed out too, besides these most glaring examples.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @03:26PM (2 children)
The Baltic states have been unwilling to accommodate incoming Russians since begin summer. Their reasoning is simple: if you only started running in June/July, that means you were all OK with the invasion in the months before, and we simply don't want you to mingle with the genuine war/political refugees (apart from you being a possible member of a fifth column). Finland already saw an average of 3000 cars a day pass the border in the preceding months -- the night of the 21st that peaked to 4500; I haven't heard about amending the constitution for an additional 1500 cars.
The Visa and Mastercard blockade had indeed to do with Putin and relatives e.g. Medvedev's son: in March the visa/mastercard blockade, in June he reappears in Moscow, after having lived in the US. He could have safely hopped from country to country on tourist visas, but my guess is the money was gone, and he had to return.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @06:58PM (1 child)
You are misinformed; it started at the end of July, out of the blue. And "reasoning", ANY reasoning, does nothing to explain the coincidence of the dates. Had the EU politicians known Putin's plans to the day, months in advance, seemingly before Putin himself? HOW had they known? WHY had they been inventing strange "reasons" instead of telling the world of the mobilization plans if they had known?
As to Medvedev's son, it is PERSONAL sanctions' doing. Or do you really believe he didn't have bank accounts outside Russia? Really?
Taken together, your "counter" misses the mark by several Earth orbit diameters.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @02:58AM
I think you know the answer to that. If Putin didn't know, then they wouldn't either.