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China has a "stunning lead" over the US:
The Biden administration might be limiting China's ability to manufacture advanced chips, but according to an independent think tank, the Asian nation is still ahead of the US when it comes to research in 37 out of 44 crucial and emerging technologies, including AI, defense, and key quantum tech areas.
Insider reports that the Canberra-based Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) believes China has a "stunning lead" over the US when it comes to high-impact research across the majority of critical and emerging technology domains.
[...] The think tank notes that for some of these technologies, the ten leading research institutions are based in China and are collectively generating nine times more high-impact research papers than the second-ranked country, which is usually the US. What could be especially worrying for America is that two areas where China really excels are Defense and space-related technologies. ASPI writes that China's advancements in nuclear-capable hypersonic missiles took the US by surprise in 2021.
How is China so far ahead? Some of it is down to imported talent. The report notes that one-fifth of its high-impact papers are being authored by researchers with postgraduate training in a Five-Eyes country (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States). However, most of China's progress comes from deliberate design and long-term policy planning by President Xi Jinping and his predecessors.
The near-term effects of China's lead could see it gaining a stranglehold on the global supply of certain critical technologies, while the long-term impact could result in the authoritarian state gaining more global influence and power.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 06, @12:10AM (17 children)
Wonderful. You know a bit of history. But, a hundred years ago is history. So is 20 years ago. A year ago is history. Today the US is sliding into irrelevancy. Read the post above about getting Chinese students to study gender fluidity, women's history, black history, and underwater basket weaving. STEM is where students need to be, if we want to remain technologically relevant.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 06, @01:32AM
My point was that Azimov's "cult of ignorance", that he claims the US always has had, doesn't appear to have have prevented the technological rise and dominance of the USA. So is it really a big deal to worry about?
I'm going to need more than some pearl-clutching about vociferous social studies students to convince me that the largest economy, and largest most technologically advanced military, is sliding to irrelevance in any meaningful timeframe. Especially if you're suggesting that China, with its teetering economy, time-bomb demographics, reactionary politics, and untested military, is going to slide any slower.
As of today, the greatest technological advancement released so far this year appears to be ChatGPT, and where was that developed? China?
No, the "AI" that China's top tech companies demonstrate to the public is little more than a woman with a microphone behind a low-FPS Unreal Engine stock avatar: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wJRjQ_wMzA&t=80s [youtube.com]
Or perhaps you heard that now half of the planet's satellites were made by SpaceX. A Chinese company is that?
What advanced technology has China actually brought to the table in recent history? I don't mean rumours or propaganda, I mean actual products that can be acquired today. 5G you might say? Sure, Huawei played a part, but not as much as China wants you to think [ericsson.com]. Anything else?
Your pet social studies boogie men are irrelevant. You only think social studies students are a problem because your favourite news outlet is amplifying extremists. STEM is thriving, it's well paid, it's cool, it's in the zeitgeist, it's just not newsworthy.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday March 06, @12:31PM (15 children)
So if we didn't read the post above the US wouldn't be sliding into irrelevancy? Thanks for not telling us first, you meanie.
There has to be a need first for those students. One of the things missed here is that institutional and societal obstacles still happen - such as environmental regulations and NIMBYism against a host of industrial works (refineries, nuclear plants, and rare earth mines, for example). And the less flexible and open a society is, the less STEM it'll do. That's a large part of why Silicon Valley happened in California. STEM people tend to be weird and California used to handle weird better.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Monday March 06, @01:07PM (14 children)
Isn't California not also famous for its (extensive) environmental regulations?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday March 06, @01:24PM (13 children)
(Score: 2) by quietus on Tuesday March 07, @07:41AM (12 children)
Since which they've rested on their laurels. One of the interesting points raised in Frederick P. Brooks "The Design of Design" is that constraints are an advantage. They bound the design space, thus speeding up the task of deciding exactly what to design. Couldn't it be argued that, as people grow wealthier, they will long for better health, fresh air, crystal clear rivers? If that is so, wouldn't an economy with more strict environmental standards be better prepared for the future?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday March 07, @01:17PM (2 children)
(Score: 2) by quietus on Tuesday March 07, @04:23PM (1 child)
Want stuff == basis of advanced economy.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday March 07, @11:02PM
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday March 07, @01:48PM (8 children)
(Score: 2) by quietus on Tuesday March 07, @04:28PM (7 children)
To prepare for the future, you better surround yourself with people, and businesses who are also preparing for the future. You do realize that the Industrial Revolution first took hold in those places where wage costs were highest, don't you?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday March 07, @10:57PM (6 children)
Nope, and I doubt you realize that either! I'll note, for example, that the poorest tended to be the people employed in factories and mines.
Moving on, we see today a very high sensitivity to labor costs. They certainly aren't flocking to high wage cost locations today!
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday March 08, @11:04AM (5 children)
Mmmm. If you really are interested in economic history, try to get hold of Fernand Braudel's books -- they're not in print anymore, but you can still find them in antique shops. He's a giant in the field, and his books are well worth the investment. Specifically, for industrial revolutions, read Civilization and Capitalism (it's a trilogy, like his other work, The Mediterranean).
For now, you'll have to contend with a 2015 article from The Economic History Review, The high wage economy and the industrial revolution: a restatement [sci-hub.st].
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday March 08, @03:36PM (4 children)
Sure there is a logical explanation via supply and demand for why expensive labor would incentivize cheaper automation. But that ignores that there were other paths that could be taken. Another is simply that UK exports go down, causing labor value to decline as well, and wages to go down. That is, wage differences equalize and nothing changes.
And that's where California heads now. Sure, they have those high labor costs, but they also have a variety of onerous obstructions to anyone who wants to build improved automation: aggressive environmental regulations, labor union protectionism, goofy political ideology, etc. They'll get the high costs (including high cost of living!) without the benefits. And a large, extremely poor population to boot. They still have a waning Silicon Valley so for the near future, we may see key automation improvements done in California, but there's not much room for them there.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday March 08, @05:09PM (3 children)
I see you made it to Table 1. I am surprised.
(Score: 2, Funny) by khallow on Wednesday March 08, @06:51PM (2 children)
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday March 10, @03:33PM (1 child)
Luckily that doesn't happen all too often :P
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday March 15, @05:49PM
Let's consider an example of how California blocks automation: "AB 5" [wikipedia.org] a state law that attempted (and failed) to ban the practice of classifying gig economy workers as contractors. My take is that this was done merely to protect labor unions (and that we'll likely see future efforts to ban gig work). Any automation that significantly displaces workers would also run hard against this political opposition.
So why would someone developing new automation develop and apply it in California where their efforts could be torpedoed by hostile labor unions?