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posted by LaminatorX on Thursday January 15 2015, @01:22PM   Printer-friendly
from the rolling-thunder dept.

Reuters reports that Elon Musk, speaking at an industry conference in Detroit, said Tesla may not be profitable until 2020 but that Tesla plans to boost production of electric cars to "at least a few million a year" by 2025. Musk told attendees at the Automotive News World Congress that "we could make money now if we weren't investing" in new technology and vehicles such as the Model 3 and expanded retail networks.

Musk does not see the Chevrolet Bolt as a potential competitor to the Model 3. "It's not going to affect us if someone builds a few hundred thousand vehicles," said Musk. "I'd be pleased to see other manufacturers make electric cars." On another topic, Musk said he was open to partnerships with retailers to sell Tesla vehicles, but not until after the company no longer has production bottlenecks. "Before considering taking on franchised dealers, we also have to establish (more of) our own stores," said Musk adding that "we will consider" franchising "if we find the right partner." Musk did not elaborate, but said Tesla "is not actively seeking any partnerships" with other manufacturers "because our focus is so heavily on improving our production" in Fremont. Last year, Tesla delivered about 33,000 Model S sedans and said the current wait for delivery is one to four months. Tesla has already presold every Model S X that it plans to build in 2015. “If you ordered a car today, you wouldn’t get it until 2016."

[Update] The above links presented conflicting reports as to whether it was the Model S or the Model X whose 2015 orders were sold out. According to Tesla Motor's own web page, it was the Model X :

The delivery estimate for new reservations is early 2016.

 
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  • (Score: 2) by frojack on Thursday January 15 2015, @10:56PM

    by frojack (1554) on Thursday January 15 2015, @10:56PM (#135234) Journal

    The documentary was pretty much a hack job of half truths and exaggerations, but mostly it was done decade too soon.

    None of those companies really has adequate range to meet daily use in the modern era, and quite frankly most of those were mere demonstration products, and contrary to your assertion there was never any significant, real demand for them.

    Their range was too limited, the charge stations weren't being built where they were needed, and most of them were still using lead acid batteries.

    It makes a nice conspiracy story but realistically the technology was just not there yet. Its just barely here now.

    Now every manufacturer has an electric vehicle waiting in the wings, or on the showroom floor. Many are still putting small gas engines in them because their range is just not adequate yet due to the high cost of batteries. And billions are being poured into battery plants and battery technology.

    As for how Musk did it, history will show, he started at the high dollar luxury end, (which appeals to people who actually take care of their things) and thumbed his nose at the whole car dealer concept, and engineered a car that was viable not only as an every day driver but a weekend getaway car as well. So Range, range, and more range.

    He knew he was never going to make money opening traditional dealerships because maintenance was so low sending a guy around in a truck was cheaper.

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  • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Thursday January 15 2015, @11:28PM

    by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Thursday January 15 2015, @11:28PM (#135240) Homepage
    > adequate range to meet daily use

    How many km do you drive per typical day?
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    • (Score: 1) by tftp on Friday January 16 2015, @12:09AM

      by tftp (806) on Friday January 16 2015, @12:09AM (#135245) Homepage

      How many km do you drive per typical day?

      This is not a correct question to ask, as you cannot apply joules that you haven't spent yesterday for a hill climb that you are trying today. The only correct question would look like this:

      What is the longest trip that you ever make per day?

      For me the answer would be "about 450 miles." One could say, of course, that I ought to have another car for such a trip - but don't you think that it would be a bit wasteful to own a car that is driven a few times per year?

      If we set those rare trips aside, even then I cannot tell. I drive about 80 miles per day once per week. But I don't know how these translate into flat land figures, as the trip is across a hilly terrain, and it includes considerable climbs and descents. I cannot say how much of the recovered energy can be put back into the battery (they can't be charged with infinite power) and how much energy will be required to drive the EV uphill. I suspect that you could easily double the trip distance for those conditions, making it, say, 150 miles once a week. As I wouldn't want to arrive home with less than half of useful charge, the total range has to be about 250-300 miles. I can give you a much more accurate answer once a proper range calculator is developed, one that takes into account such factors as terrain profile, wind, and rolling resistance on some portions of the road, and even the driving pattern (start-stop in a city still uses friction brakes sometimes.)

      • (Score: 2) by DECbot on Friday January 16 2015, @12:49AM

        by DECbot (832) on Friday January 16 2015, @12:49AM (#135252) Journal

        A friend of mine rented a Model S P85 while putting around Austria for the weekend (well, perhaps I should say flooring the accelerator while climbing mountains). 150 to 200 miles would be a good estimate for aggressive driving through hilly terrain. Driving like Grandma through Kansas would likely get you the estimated 250 miles. A quick google search finds this interesting tidbit: a constant 20 to 30 miles per hour Tesla estimates a range of 400 miles [teslamotors.com].

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        • (Score: 1) by tftp on Friday January 16 2015, @01:17AM

          by tftp (806) on Friday January 16 2015, @01:17AM (#135259) Homepage

          A quick google search finds this interesting tidbit: a constant 20 to 30 miles per hour Tesla estimates a range of 400 miles.

          Indeed it is interesting. But range in a gas car is usually (in a city) an abstract factor, as you can see gas stations at every other intersection. Range in an EV is what separates you arriving home on time, safe and sound, from sitting on a shoulder of a busy freeway in pouring rain, at night, waiting for a tow truck.

          I see that speeds in range 70-80 mph are resulting in range that is only 240-200 miles of range. That is on a flat terrain, and with constant power: zero acceleration during the trip - all the energy is spent on wind and rolling resistance. A hilly terrain will simply not allow you to drive that fast, so the energy loss will be driven by other factors (by lifting the car, primarily.) Braking and acceleration would be also affecting the performance. This is, actually, what I dislike about Tesla's presentation - they *always* give me theoretical charts; but once a journalist takes an actual drive, he is villified for all the "mistakes" that he made - and that any regular Joe would have done as well. I want to see trips, in .kml format, that have the SoC overlaid. I want to see lots of those trips, so that useful statistic can be gathered. Perhaps I would even find trips in the area that I am interested in. Theory is no good when you buy a car, especially when Tesla themselves put a hundred disclaimers there - "not a real trip," "professional driver in controlled conditions," and "YMMV." Seems like Tesla wants the drivers to be responsible for figuring out if the car that they haven't seen is a good fit to their travel pattern. Like "Buy the car to learn if it is good enough for you." Perhaps Tesla should rent vehicles to people for a week or two. As far as I know, they are not doing that. I would have rented one, assuming that charging can be arranged.

      • (Score: 2) by hemocyanin on Friday January 16 2015, @01:16AM

        by hemocyanin (186) on Friday January 16 2015, @01:16AM (#135258) Journal

        You don't have to buy a car for that one 450 mi trip -- you can rent one.

        • (Score: 1) by tftp on Friday January 16 2015, @01:22AM

          by tftp (806) on Friday January 16 2015, @01:22AM (#135261) Homepage

          You don't have to buy a car for that one 450 mi trip -- you can rent one.

          I considered renting a car once for such a trip (for a week,) because it was still cold and I had to cross some mountain passes - which begs for a 4WD. It appears that it would have costed me well above $500 just because of calendar time - even though it included only two days of driving. I chose to take my own car.

        • (Score: 2) by frojack on Friday January 16 2015, @02:49AM

          by frojack (1554) on Friday January 16 2015, @02:49AM (#135272) Journal

          Given that you decide to own a car anyway, owning one that does what you want makes more sense than owning one that doesn't quite do what you want so you have to rent another and pay for both. Especially if we are talking about more than once a year vacation.

          450 miles isn't that much of a trip, its just what you can do comfortably in a day.

          By the way, here is a range estimate chart produced by Tesla for the model S
          http://autoweek.com/article/car-news/tesla-breaks-down-battery-range-model-s [autoweek.com]

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      • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Friday January 16 2015, @10:00AM

        by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Friday January 16 2015, @10:00AM (#135323) Homepage
        > > How many km do you drive per typical day?

        > This is not a correct question to ask, as you cannot apply joules that you haven't spent yesterday for a hill climb that you are trying today. The only correct question would look like this:
        > What is the longest trip that you ever make per day?
        > For me the answer would be "about 450 miles." One could say, of course, that I ought to have another car for such a trip - but don't you think that it would be a bit wasteful to own a car that is driven a few times per year?

        That would be what rental cars are for. Wouldn't you like the added assurance that if you have some mechanical issue, there will be a replacement set of keys in your hand within hours, and you don't have to care about the one you're leaving behind? I used to have the same outlook as you, and asked pretty much the same question myself here several EV stories ago, but was fortunate to have my eyes opened to the fact that rental cars just make so much sense for the "few times a year" tasks. The few hundred dollars that costs is less than the insurance, road tax, maintenance, and depreciation on a car that you own. There's no shame in not owning everything that you use.
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        • (Score: 1) by tftp on Friday January 16 2015, @07:32PM

          by tftp (806) on Friday January 16 2015, @07:32PM (#135486) Homepage

          That would be what rental cars are for. Wouldn't you like the added assurance that if you have some mechanical issue, there will be a replacement set of keys in your hand within hours, and you don't have to care about the one you're leaving behind?

          Rental cars cost money on calendar basis, separately from distance driven. If you rent such a car for a week-long trip to relatives who live on a ranch, you are in for a surprise in the nearest credit card bill.

          Additionally, how would one rent a car? Some rental companies actually deliver and pickup cars, but other do not. It is maybe 10 miles of driving from my home to a nearest rental location. Should I leave my car at their parking lot for a week? I don't think so. Anything else (such as asking a friend) quickly devolves into a complicated, limiting scheme. Compare to just starting *your* car and driving wherever you want.

          When we look at other issues, no, I am not willing to pay for a set of replacement keys. I prefer to not lose my keys. I have a spare with me on long trips anyway. I don't want to trust a car that may have a mechanical problem, or that was repeatedly redlined by a careless customer. I don't want to drive a car that may have traces of drugs in it, left by an earlier customer. There are all kinds of problems with a car that you don't know anything about. It's safe to use in a city; but if you need to cross Nevada using one of those smaller desert roads where gas stations are available every 100 miles, you need to be careful.

          Most certainly a rental vehicle is not a good idea for trips that one makes regularly. It's too much hassle and it's too expensive. As others have already pointed out, it's most reasonable to buy a car that does all that you need. Some people even buy trucks, even though they rarely carry such a load. Specialized cars - one for grocery shopping, one for road trips - are not efficient. Not today, at least. My personal expectation is that eventually the network of chargers will expand, and the charge time will go down. If a car can be recharged in 15 minutes at every gas station, and if it can then drive 250 miles (which is already possible) then it becomes a useful vehicle for all purposes. What is missing today is first the chargers, and second the shorter charging time. I'm even willing to negotiate on the charging time. But lack of chargers caused that NYT journalist to become stranded. A 120V outlet is *not* enough for an EV - it barely can keep the battery from discharging on its own, sitting still.

          The few hundred dollars that costs is less than the insurance, road tax, maintenance, and depreciation on a car that you own.

          I'm paying, I think, about $300 per year for insurance on my car. It is considerably less than cost of a rental car for a week or two. Maintenance is very cheap and, for me, done twice per year regardless of the mileage. Depreciation is driven not only by miles driven but also by the calendar age of the car, so it won't help you much if you don't drive it. As matter of fact, the most effective use of a car is to drive it as much as possible, like taxis or city buses. A car that doesn't move still gets older.

          • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Saturday January 17 2015, @11:54AM

            by FatPhil (863) <pc-soylentNO@SPAMasdf.fi> on Saturday January 17 2015, @11:54AM (#135645) Homepage
            Regarding "keys", please look up "synecdoche" in your nearest dictionary. I conclude you're American, and aparently irony isn't the only trope you have no clue about.
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