SoylentNews is people
SoylentNews
Investors sold after the investment bank's analysts warned about what they called the 'China butterfly effect':
Shares of General Motors and Ford Motor traded lower on Wednesday after Morgan Stanley downgraded the overall U.S. auto sector, citing worries that Western automakers might struggle in the intensifying competition with Chinese rivals.
General Motors was downgraded to "underweight" from "equal weight," and its shares fell 5.4 percentage points, to $45.50. Ford went to "equal weight" from "overweight," with its shares dropping more than 4 percentage points, to $10.43.
Electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian Automotive and Canadian parts manufacturer Magna International were both downgraded to "equal weight" from "overweight." Shares of Rivian were down 5.7 percentage points while Magna's were off 4.7 percentage points.
Investors sold after Morgan Stanley analysts warned about what they called the "China butterfly effect," a metaphor suggesting that even small surges in China's industrial production capacity could have significant ripple effects across the global market.
[...] Bolstered in part by massive government subsidies, Chinese manufacturers have rapidly emerged as major players in the EV industry, accounting for 60 percent of worldwide EV sales and almost one in five EVs sold in Europe last year.
Both Washington and Brussels have hiked tariffs in response to China's excess production of low-price EVs.
Previously:
- VW Turns on Germany as China Targets Europe's EV Blunders
- Auto Woes
- Chinese Automaker Zotye Plans 2020 Entrance into the U.S. Market
(Score: 5, Interesting) by DrkShadow on Sunday September 29 2024, @04:24AM
If they're getting $1 billion from Cruise, they're counting money from other units and not deducting development costs. Cruise isn't successful, and their hope to have huge income from it by 2030 means they're _planning_ on having full-autonomous driving, and planning that every other vendor *will not*. The plan would basically also necessitate that no one owns a vehicle and uses their service, by 2030. Nuhhh...
They're telling you what to expect: the GM stock is going to be utterly flat, and perhaps around 2029 they're going to go through a reconning. Most likely they'll update those numbers in 2027 - 2028, because.. not a chance.
Back when I got my first AV ride in 2018, I was like, "Wow! This is pretty cool -- in 10-15 years, we could probably have this going for real!" -- the CTO's response was to chuckle and say that he hoped it would be much sooner than that. The company ran out of money some years later. Now, in 2024, I look around, I see what Waymo is up to, and I look at the strife that Cruise has had, and the (lack) of progress in the past five years, various other companies dropping out of the running, even the long-haul trucking almost winding down.. it's almost like we're at a stand-still. Clearly more driving practice isn't helping these systems get better.
AI inference boxes will not help these systems improve - it's hard to limit output, especially on unlimited input. It needs to be rules-based: actual, physical rules, given object detection and classification (the AI part), and knowledge of where it is in the world. Then, _rules_ (not AI) will be able to put the car in the _correct place_. However - you have to consider every situation in advance. That's not so bad, as there are rules to the road, and "Vehicle should be X distance from others at all times" -- and exception handling, "Vehicle came suddenly from the side," leading to rules of how-to-correct. These are really pretty generic, otherwise no one would ever be able to drive without stopping and thinking. (Car comes at us from the side, "Omg get away!!" and move to our other side and make room, without hitting whatever might be on our other side.)
Paradigm change. Rules (like physics) development, instead of AI. Strong, intuitive, lack-of-mistakes classification of objects, direction of travel, and speed, and intuition toward where they will go. It's doable. It will require culture-shift. Not by 2030, though.