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Arthur T Knackerbracket has processed the following story:
A six-year investigation into the vast Thwaites glacier in Antarctica has concluded with a grim outlook on its future.
Often dubbed the “doomsday glacier”, this huge mass of ice is comparable in size to Britain or Florida and its collapse alone would raise sea levels by 65 centimetres. Worse still, this is expected to trigger a more widespread loss of the ice sheet covering West Antarctica, causing a calamitous sea level rise of 3.3 metres and threatening cities like New York, Kolkata and Shanghai.
It is an extremely remote and difficult area to get to, but the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC), a joint UK-US research programme, has managed to deploy 100 scientists there over the past six years, using planes, ships and underwater robots to study the dynamics of this ice in detail. “It was a tremendous challenge, and yet we really learned a lot,” says Ted Scambos at University of Colorado Boulder.
These discoveries include the fact that Thwaites glacier is particularly vulnerable, as it rests on a bed of rock that is well below sea level and is being melted from the underside by warmer seawater. What’s more, the bedrock slopes downwards towards the interior of the ice sheet, so, as the glacier retreats, even more ice is exposed to warm seawater, threatening to accelerate the collapse.
[...] “It’s not going to instantaneously lead to a catastrophic retreat in the next year or the year after, but, at the same time, we are very sure that Thwaites is going to continue to retreat, and ultimately the retreat is going to accelerate,” says Rob Larter at the British Antarctic Survey, another member of the team. “We can’t put an exact time frame on that.”
Ultimately, however, the ITCG researchers think that, by the end of the 23rd century, Thwaites glacier and much of the West Antarctic ice sheet might be lost.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by HiThere on Monday September 30 2024, @05:00PM (5 children)
In a sense, you're correct. But this is a clear warning that long term investments should not be made in that real estate.
Also, "by the end of the 23rd century" translates to "less than 200 years from now", and this isn't a problem that is going to "suddenly appear" at the end of two centuries, it's one that is here now from people living on low-lying islands, and which will increasingly get worse until New York and similar places need to move. (New Orleans should already start moving.)
If you wait, the ways to deal with this will get increasingly expensive. Perhaps investments in technology for sea-steading would be a good idea, but they probably wouldn't be applied until after significant permanent, rather than just episodic, damage had been done.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday October 01 2024, @09:59AM (2 children)
Who makes two century plus investments in sea coast assets who can't handle a two foot rise in sea level? It's not many in the first place - people like the Netherlands's dike system. And well, they can solve it - should they choose to. It just costs a little more.
Also keep in mind time value. Things done now have higher costs and benefits than if they were done two centuries from now.
Only if you choose to build and maintain expensive things right on the edge of the oceans. Choose otherwise (including the occasional move to higher ground when your buildings naturally reach end of life) and it doesn't become increasingly expensive.
(Score: 3, Touché) by HiThere on Tuesday October 01 2024, @01:25PM (1 child)
New Orleans is an example of an expensive thing built right on the edge of the ocean.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday October 03 2024, @01:38AM
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday October 01 2024, @05:16PM (1 child)
276 years to be accurate. 76 years till you get to the end of the 21st century. 176 years till you get to the end of the 22nd century, and thus, 276 years till you get to the end of the 23rd century.
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Tuesday October 01 2024, @05:44PM
Mmph. I always get that wrong. Less than 300 years from now is a LOT less significant. (I still wouldn't invest anything long term in New Orleans or Vanuatu though.)
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.