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An Anonymous Coward writes:

By my count, Linux has over 11% of the desktop market. Here's how I got that number - and why people are making the leap:

My colleague Jack Wallen and I have been telling you for a while now that you should switch from Windows to the Linux desktop. Sounds like some of you have been listening.

The proof of the pudding comes from various sources. First, with Windows 10 nearing the end of its supported life, we told you to consider switching from Windows to Linux Mint or another Windows-like Linux distribution. What do we find now?

Zorin OS, an excellent Linux desktop, reports that its latest release, "Zorin OS 18 has amassed 1 million downloads in just over a month since its release." What makes it especially interesting is that over "78% of these downloads came from Windows" users.

[...] Many have already been making the leap. By May 2025, StatCounter data showed the Linux desktop had grown from a minute 1.5% global desktop share in 2020 to above 4% in 2024, and was at a new American high of above 5% by 2025.

In StatCounter's latest US numbers, which cover through October, Linux shows up as only 3.49%. But if you look closer, "unknown" accounts for 4.21%. Allow me to make an educated guess here: I suspect those unknown desktops are actually running Linux. What else could it be? FreeBSD? Unix? OS/2? Unlikely.

In addition, ChromeOS comes in at 3.67%, which strikes me as much too low. Leaving that aside, ChromeOS is a Linux variant. It just uses the Chrome web browser for its interface rather than KDE Plasma, Cinnamon, or another Linux desktop environment. Put all these together, and you get a Linux desktop market share of 11.37%. Now we're talking.

If you want to look at the broader world of end-user operating systems, including phones and tablets, Linux comes out even better. In the US, where we love our Apple iPhones, Android -- yes, another Linux distro -- boasts 41.71% of the market share, according to StatCounter's latest numbers. Globally, however, Android rules with 72.55% of the market.

[...] Now, of course, StatCounter's numbers, as Ed Bott has pointed out, have their problems. So I also looked at my preferred data source for operating system numbers: the US federal government's Digital Analytics Program (DAP).

This site gives a running count of US government website visits and an analysis. On average, there are 1.6 billion sessions over the last 30 days, with millions of users per day. In short, DAP gives a detailed view of what people use without massaging the data.

DAP gets its raw data from a Google Analytics account. DAP has open-sourced the code, which displays the data on the web, and its data-collection code. You can download its data in JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format so you can analyze the raw numbers yourself.

By DAP's count, the Linux desktop now has a 5.8% market share. That may not sound impressive, but when I started looking at DAP's numbers a decade ago, the Linux desktop had a mere 0.67% share. We've come a long way.

If you add Chrome OS (1.7%) and Android (15.8%), 23.3% of all people accessing the US government's websites are Linux users. The Linux kernel's user-facing footprint is much larger than the "desktop Linux" label suggests.

[...] But wait, there's more data. According to Lansweeper, an IT asset discovery and inventory company, in its analysis of over 15 million identified consumer desktop operating systems, Linux desktops currently account for just over 6% of PC market share.

Earlier this year, I identified five drivers for people switching from Windows to Linux. These are: Microsoft's shift of focus from Windows as a product to Microsoft 365 and cloud services, the increased viability of gaming via Steam and Proton, drastically improved ease of use in mainstream distros, broader hardware support, and rising concern about privacy and data control.

Three others have emerged since then. One is that many companies and users still have perfectly good Windows 10 machines that can't "upgrade" to Windows 11. ControlUp, a company that would love to help you move to Windows 11, has found that about 25% of consumer and business Windows 10 PCs can't be moved to Windows 11.

[...] Another is that many people really, really don't want to move to Windows 11. A UK survey by consumer group Which? in September 2025 found that 26% of respondents intended to keep using Windows 10 even after updates stopped. Interestingly, 6% plan to go to an alternative operating system such as Linux.

[...] Finally, not everyone is thrilled with Windows 11 being turned into an AI-agentic operating system. Despite all the AI hype, some people don't want AI second-guessing their every move or reporting on their work to Microsoft.

After Microsoft president Pavan Davulur tweeted on Nov. 10 that "Windows is evolving into an agentic OS, connecting devices, cloud, and AI to unlock intelligent productivity and secure work anywhere," he probably expected Windows users to be happy with this vision. They weren't.

[...] My last reason for people looking to Linux from Windows doesn't matter much to users in the US, but it matters a lot to people outside the US. You see, the European Union (EU) governments don't trust Microsoft to deliver on its service promises under potential US political pressure.

This has resulted in the rise of Digital Sovereignty initiatives, where EU companies and not American tech giants are seen as much more trustworthy. As a result, many EU states have dropped Microsoft programs and have switched to open-source software.

That includes the desktop. Indeed, one EU group has created EU OS. This is a proof-of-concept Linux desktop for a Fedora-based distro that uses the KDE Plasma desktop environment.

It's not just the EU. The UK also no longer trusts Microsoft with its data. A 2024 Computer Weekly report revealed that Microsoft told Scottish police it could not guarantee that data in Microsoft 365 and Azure would remain in the UK.

[...] Taken together, all these shifts make Linux less of a tinker's special and more of a pragmatic option for people who want out of the Windows upgrade treadmill or subscription model.

Desktop Linux is moving from perennial underdog to a small but meaningful slice of everyday computing, especially among technically inclined users, non-American public-sector agencies, and ordinary consumer and business users who want a cheaper, more trustworthy desktop.

Original Submission