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Gartner previously projected AI PCs would reach 50% market penetration before the end of the decade, but rising memory prices on premium-tier hardware will also push that milestone back to 2028. AI PCs, of course, require more onboard memory to run local inference workloads, making them especially exposed to DRAM cost increases.
Longer upgrade cycles will follow directly from higher prices, and Gartner says that PC lifetimes will extend by 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers by the end of 2026, a trend it noted will raise concerns about security vulnerabilities on aging hardware.
For the PC market, demand will increasingly concentrate at the top end, where vendors carry enough margin to absorb component inflation without destroying profitability. Gartner advised vendors to accept unit volume decline rather than cut prices to chase budget buyers. "Overall, device vendors and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimize pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability from the second quarter onwards," Atwal said.
The forecast covers smartphones as well, where shipments are projected to fall 8.4% this year. Gartner estimated basic smartphone buyers will exit the market five times faster than premium buyers in 2026 as rising costs push consumers toward refurbished or second-hand alternatives.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday March 04, @05:12AM (4 children)
Even if the AI bubble doesn't collapse by then, they will just increase RAM production. Current prices are unsustainable all around.
(Score: 5, Informative) by Ken_g6 on Wednesday March 04, @05:46AM (2 children)
But increasing RAM production would require building expensive new facilities, and nobody's sure when the AI bubble will pop.
(Score: 2) by Spamalope on Wednesday March 04, @02:20PM (1 child)
Repeatedly convicted for price fixing memory companies see no reason prices should ever fall.
You can trust them than the massive price spikes after coordination with AI companies is totally organic, with no collusion involved at all.
They pinky swear there is no solution, so you know they can be trusted.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Freeman on Wednesday March 04, @03:47PM
The price fixing scandal and resulting court cases are why TV prices are as low as they are. Maybe there's issues with RAM manufacturers as well. I remain to be convinced that it's not just the market being horrible.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 2) by aafcac on Wednesday March 04, @04:58PM
Maybe, nVidia GPU prices still haven't returned to any sort of reasonable price for entry level systems since they got addicted to crypto dollars. There's no guarantee at all that they won't decide that there isn't enough profit in those lower priced systems to do any of the investment that would lead to the process returning to where they should be. Every time I've looked at nVidia GPUs over the last few years the price of just the GPU itself is practically the cost of an entry level system with AMD or Intel GPUs.