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Bloomberg reports:
The way some parts of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) are calculated are about to change in the wake of the debate over persistently depressed first-quarter growth.
In a blog post published Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis listed a series of alterations it will make in seasonally adjusting data used to calculate economic growth. The changes will be implemented with the release of the initial second-quarter GDP estimate on July 30, the BEA said.
Although the agency adjusts its figures for seasonal variations, growth in any given first quarter still tends to be weaker than in the remaining three, economists have found, a sign there may be some bias in the data. It's a phenomenon economists call "residual seasonality."
ZeroHedge reports:
In other words, as of July 30, the Q1 GDP which will have seen its final print at -1% or worse, will be revised to roughly +1.8%, just to give the Fed the "credibility" to proceed with a September rate hike which means we can now safely assume not even the Fed will launch a "hiking cycle" at a time when the first half GDP will print negative (assuming the Atlanta Fed's 0.7% Q2 GDP estimate is even modestly accurate).
Will abnormally "good" data be revised lower, or whether labor market data, which is already manipulated beyond comparison by the BLS will also be adjusted due to "residual seasonality"? Don't hold your breath.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by captain normal on Monday May 25 2015, @05:59AM
Of course , just like the US Gov. calculates "cost of living". Don't like the way it looks, just include the cost of things you don't need to live. Like electronics from China, or cheap housewares or appliances from China. Meanwhile, the things that one needs to live like costs of food, housing, heating and cooking fuel keep shooting up.
Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts"- --Daniel Patrick Moynihan--
(Score: 2) by VLM on Monday May 25 2015, @11:59AM
Humorously the mantra they recite WRT their weird selection of products was all those household goods are made at the factory down the road so the employee income kind of corrects for the mistakes in goods selection. Oh wait all those jobs went offshore 20 years ago. Whoops.