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posted by martyb on Monday May 25 2015, @04:51AM   Printer-friendly
from the draw-graph-and-then-plot-points dept.

Bloomberg reports:

The way some parts of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) are calculated are about to change in the wake of the debate over persistently depressed first-quarter growth.

In a blog post published Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis listed a series of alterations it will make in seasonally adjusting data used to calculate economic growth. The changes will be implemented with the release of the initial second-quarter GDP estimate on July 30, the BEA said.

Although the agency adjusts its figures for seasonal variations, growth in any given first quarter still tends to be weaker than in the remaining three, economists have found, a sign there may be some bias in the data. It's a phenomenon economists call "residual seasonality."

ZeroHedge reports:

In other words, as of July 30, the Q1 GDP which will have seen its final print at -1% or worse, will be revised to roughly +1.8%, just to give the Fed the "credibility" to proceed with a September rate hike which means we can now safely assume not even the Fed will launch a "hiking cycle" at a time when the first half GDP will print negative (assuming the Atlanta Fed's 0.7% Q2 GDP estimate is even modestly accurate).

Will abnormally "good" data be revised lower, or whether labor market data, which is already manipulated beyond comparison by the BLS will also be adjusted due to "residual seasonality"? Don't hold your breath.

 
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  • (Score: 2) by VLM on Monday May 25 2015, @11:57AM

    by VLM (445) Subscriber Badge on Monday May 25 2015, @11:57AM (#187577)

    There is a lot of production that just can't happen in the winter.

    also demand destruction from holiday buying binges, legendary low real estate sales in the winter leading to low demand for everything housing related so even if you can build houses (like in the deep south) there's no demand at that time of year. "naturally" production will be lower because of demand slump unless the producer is trying to build up an inventory (LOL just in time).

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