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posted by martyb on Monday July 06 2015, @08:57AM   Printer-friendly
from the getting-what-you-asked-for-may-not-be-getting-what-you-want dept.

The Greeks voted no to the European Union's terms, despite warnings from the EU that rejecting new austerity terms would set their country on a path out of the Eurozone. 62% voted "No" while 38% voted "Yes".


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  • (Score: 2) by moondrake on Tuesday July 07 2015, @11:01AM

    by moondrake (2658) on Tuesday July 07 2015, @11:01AM (#206070)

    I think you misunderstand the basis on the contracts that gave rise to the EU. It can be more or less described as a voluntary collaboration. Nobody rules, all are equal (well, formally at least). Provisions for violations are usually focused at helping the country to comply, not putting them into a position where they no longer have to comply. Its a fundamental different philosophy. Use of force is inconceivable within this framework. Its a little bit like raising young children. If they fail to honor their contract, you (are supposed to) try again.

    If any nation, or group of nations, would impede on another countries right (they have rights under the treaty), it would spell the end of the EU as an institution.
    You may also misjudge the willingness of countries to agree with such an action, as its sets a precedent (and they may be next).

    But you do not have to take my word for it, just look at the news today of all countries stressing they want to keep Greece in (and even retracting pre-referendum statements). All of that talk is what I would call politics (politics is not about agreeing imho). I predict that there will be a deal, watered down in the eyes of many EU taxpayers, but sold as the best possible solution. An unilateral expulsion is simply not going to happen. They will probably work out some special status for Greece.

    About leaving on its own: There are provisions for exiting the EU, and, it can be argued, by extension the EMU. But I think its unlikely for them to do that.

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  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 07 2015, @11:42AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 07 2015, @11:42AM (#206076)

    I didn't say it's desirable, just that it's possible. The Eurozone can not perpetually tolerate an unwilling member being in flagrant violation of the treaties. Expulsion by law or by coercion is a possibility, whether Greece or anyone else likes it or not. Consider the situation: Seeing the "success" of Syriza's referendum, Podemos will try the same in Spain (election later this year) and Hollande will want less pressure on France (election in 2017). Italy already has a left-leaning government and is looking for an opportunity to relax the pressure on its finances as well. So it's open season on all fiscally responsible countries, but mostly on Germany due to its size and current economic power. This is not going to work. Germany can not bail out Greece, Spain, France and Italy. The tensions will tear the EU apart.

    What are the options? a) Greece stops its tantrum, abides by the rules, reforms its state apparatus and becomes a good European citizen. The other countries take note and don't try anything funny themselves. b) Greece does not come to its senses, the Eurogroup does not give in, and Greece exits. The other countries take note and don't try anything funny themselves. c) Greece gets away with it, the Eurogroup grants a haircut and agrees to more money for empty promises, open season on Germany, EU breaks apart, everybody loses.

    Option c isn't acceptable, so a haircut is not an option and neither is more money without reforms (not just promises of reforms). So it's option a or b. How likely do you hold option a? That leaves b, Grexit. If it has to be possible, it is possible.

  • (Score: 2) by cafebabe on Saturday July 18 2015, @08:43AM

    by cafebabe (894) on Saturday July 18 2015, @08:43AM (#210721) Journal

    They will probably work out some special status for Greece.

    Currency union without full political union never works. Regardless, from the present situation, a viable solution might be a currency union for the Southern European tourist economies of Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece. However, even that may only delay revolution or war.

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