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Speaking at the International Space Station Research and Development conference, Elon Musk said that a successful maiden flight for Falcon Heavy was unlikely:
SpaceX CEO and founder Elon Musk has downplayed the chances of a successful inaugural flight for his Falcon Heavy space launch vehicle, admitting there is a "good chance it would not make it to orbit in its first launch."
Development of the booster rocket, which is powered by 27 engines, has proven to be "way harder than the team initially thought," he told the International Space Station Research and Development conference on Wednesday.
Falcon Heavy will be the most powerful rocket booster in the world, capable of delivering a 54 ton payload into orbit.
Musk said that combining three Falcon 9 rockets together had multiplied vibrations throughout the vehicle making it difficult to test without a launch.
The maiden test flight is due to take place toward the end of the year.
As if watching the inaugural launch of the most powerful rocket since the Saturn V were not tempting enough, how many more people will watch in hopes of seeing it go BOOM!?
(Score: 4, Insightful) by bob_super on Thursday July 20 2017, @07:18PM (5 children)
After so many high-profile successes, setting low expectations for a prototype, 3 times bigger than anything they've ever done, is not a bad policy.
The first Ariane 5 was a nice expensive fireworks show. Now you hardly ever hear about its always-successful launch.
The question, Mr Musk, is how many tries before you get it right?
These days you're barely allowed one BOOM and one "not-quite", before knowledgeable people start asking questions (as prodded to do so by your competitors).
(Score: 4, Insightful) by DannyB on Thursday July 20 2017, @07:25PM (2 children)
You remind me of something I wrote an posted online quite some time ago, I think on Ars.
There is an important lesson that SpaceX should learn.
Dear SpaceX:
When you set out to do something bold, innovative and challenging. Something that you, yourself, are not even sure can be made to work. The risk is high. The task is difficult.
The important point is that you might possibly fail.
Therefore, you should not ever try. Ever. Just don't bother.
This message brought to you by SpaceX's competitors.
If we sing a slaying song tonight, what tools will be used for the slaying?
(Score: 2) by kaszz on Thursday July 20 2017, @07:38PM (1 child)
Not trying is to ensure no success.
It goes for girls. It goes for finances. It goes for rockets etc.
(Score: 2) by Immerman on Thursday July 20 2017, @08:28PM
I do believe that was the point.
(Score: 2) by richtopia on Thursday July 20 2017, @09:15PM
I've followed SpaceX since before their first launches. I remember finding a proposal similar to this current rendition of their vision:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Falcon_Heavy#/media/File:Falcon_rocket_family4.svg [wikipedia.org]
It looks so much like my strategy to Kerbal Space Program. "The first rocket worked, so double the size! That rocket worked, so just add more boosters!" Unfortunately rockets are more difficult than that in the real world (or even on Kerbin, those poor green space pioneers).
(Score: 2) by driverless on Friday July 21 2017, @06:04AM
It's actually an excellent policy. They're going to have a failure at some point (in fact I'm really surprised they've been so successful so far), so prepping the media for the inevitable is a must-do. Certainly when something does fail it'll be global news for a long time, so you need to be ready in advance.