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The ships full of gas waiting off Europe's coast:
The huge tankers are waiting. Off the coasts of Spain, Portugal, the UK and other European nations lie dozens of giant ships packed full of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Cooled to roughly -160C for transportation, the fossil fuel is in very high demand. Yet the ships remain at sea with their prized cargo.
After invading Ukraine in February, Russia curtailed gas supplies to Europe, sparking an energy crisis that sent the price of gas soaring. That led to fears of energy shortages and eye-watering bills for consumers.
[...] So why are ships loaded with LNG just hanging around Europe, exactly? The answer, as you might have guessed, is a little complicated.
Someone else who has watched the accumulation of vessels is Fraser Carson, a research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. This month, he counted 268 LNG ships on the water worldwide - noticeably above the one-year average of 241. Of those currently at sea, 51 are in the vicinity of Europe.
He explains that European nations plunged into a gas-buying spree over the summer that aimed to fill onshore storage tanks with gas. This was to ensure that heaps of fuel would be available to cover energy needs this winter.
The original target was to fill storage facilities to 80% of their total capacity by 1 November. That target has been met, and exceeded, far ahead of schedule. The latest data suggests storage is now at nearly 95% in total.
Imported LNG has played a key role in getting Europe to this point.
But as LNG continues to be brought ashore, demand for facilities that heat the liquid and turn it back into gas remains high. There aren't very many such plants in Europe, partly because the continent has long relied on gas delivered via pipelines from Russia instead.
On top of this bottleneck, less gas is getting used up in Europe than it otherwise might at present because the weather has been very mild well into October.
Plus, as Antoine Halff, co-founder of Kayrros notes, industrial activities that rely on gas have relaxed. This is something he and his colleagues track by scouring satellite images of factories. "There's been a very dramatic reduction in cement and steel production in Europe," he says.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by c0lo on Friday October 28 2022, @10:21AM (10 children)
No, it won't.
If Putin glasses Kiev, then either the rest of the world keeps its cool and makes an international pariah from Russia for the foreseeable future (even Xi will drop his "frienship", byebye UN security council for Russia) or there will be nobody in this world to tell or listen to stories about beautiful cities. The latter is more likely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 2, Redundant) by Opportunist on Friday October 28 2022, @10:26AM (9 children)
You're presupposing that the Russian nukes can actually launch. At this point, I'm kinda sure even Putin doubts this.
(Score: 4, Informative) by c0lo on Friday October 28 2022, @10:54AM (1 child)
Russia and weapons of mass destruction [wikipedia.org]
Even only half of that on both sides is enough to wipe out the humanity in the nuclear winter to follow. [eurekalert.org] (note: the linked is pre-COVID).
And I guarantee you that at least the ones on the nuke subs are functional.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Friday October 28 2022, @01:33PM
You'd still need enough dimwits to be stupid enough to actually execute an order like that.
And remember, Russians have children, too. And they want to see them grow up.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Thexalon on Friday October 28 2022, @12:27PM (4 children)
They only need 1 of their several thousand to actually work.
I think, however, their actual plan if they think they really need to do something desperate is to blow up the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and claim the Ukrainians did it. Nobody will really believe that claim, but it will maybe sow just enough doubt to prevent a retaliatory strike by NATO. There have been lots of signs of them making preparations to do something like that, such as capturing and kicking out of the area both the plant director and his deputy, and maintaining absolute secrecy about everything going on in and around it.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Opportunist on Friday October 28 2022, @01:31PM
It will probably not be enough for a retaliation strike but it's very likely enough to nix every bars holding back the delivery of heavy artillery to Ukraine.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Friday October 28 2022, @10:09PM (2 children)
Which would be incredible stupid because it will have too little influence on the tactical situation - a, say, 30 km diameter area will be denied to both of the opponents, too little to influence the entire front. If not used as a pretext to escalate beyond conventional weapons, there's no strategic advantage either.
Playing nasty buggers, the Russian would have a higher tactical advantage if blowing the Nova Kakhovka dam upstream Kherson, the ensuing floods would make an unpassable terrain from the area downstream for at least 6 months. Medium and long term, they'd shoot themselves in the foot letting Crimea without water, but if the Ukranian army captures Kherson and starts advancing south, you can bet the Russians will do it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Friday October 28 2022, @11:37PM (1 child)
They're also gearing up diplomatic cover to do that, yes.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Sunday October 30 2022, @08:29AM
Any diplomatic option and credibility the Russians had went out the window a long, long while ago. At this point, Putin could claim that at noon the sun is in the sky and nobody would believe it without going outside to take a look for themselves.
(Score: 2) by sjames on Saturday October 29 2022, @12:19AM (1 child)
Also consider that if Putin gives such an order, it's quite possible that he'll slip on some tea.
He isn't THAT well liked even in Russia these days.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Saturday October 29 2022, @09:34AM
No, he would "retreat to his dacha for some much needed vacation", only to "return and hand over the reins to some valued successor as he decides to retire from the burden of the office" as was the staple of Soviet times when Soviet leaders were to be ousted.