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upstart writes:

The AI Doomers' Playbook:

AI Doomerism is becoming mainstream thanks to mass media, which drives our discussion about Generative AI from bad to worse, or from slightly insane to batshit crazy. Instead of out-of-control AI, we have out-of-control panic.

When a British tabloid headline screams, "Attack of the psycho chatbot," it's funny. When it's followed by another front-page headline, "Psycho killer chatbots are befuddled by Wordle," it's even funnier. If this type of coverage stayed in the tabloids, which are known to be sensationalized, that was fine.

But recently, prestige news outlets have decided to promote the same level of populist scaremongering: The New York Times published "If we don't master AI, it will master us" (by Harari, Harris & Raskin), and TIME magazine published "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike" (by Yudkowsky).

In just a few days, we went from "governments should force a 6-month pause" (the petition from the Future of Life Institute) to "wait, it's not enough, so data centers should be bombed." Sadly, this is the narrative that gets media attention and shapes our already hyperbolic AI discourse.

[...] Sam Altman has a habit of urging us to be scared. "Although current-generation AI tools aren't very scary, I think we are potentially not that far away from potentially scary ones," he tweeted. "If you're making AI, it is potentially very good, potentially very terrible," he told the WSJ. When he shared the bad-case scenario of AI with Connie Loizo, it was "lights out for all of us."

[...] Altman's recent post "Planning for AGI and beyond" is as bombastic as it gets: "Successfully transitioning to a world with superintelligence is perhaps the most important – and hopeful, and scary – project in human history."

It is at this point that you might ask yourself, "Why would someone frame his company like that?" Well, that's a good question. The answer is that making OpenAI's products "the most important and scary – in human history" is part of its marketing strategy. "The paranoia is the marketing."

"AI doomsaying is absolutely everywhere right now," described Brian Merchant in the LA Times. "Which is exactly the way that OpenAI, the company that stands to benefit the most from everyone believing its product has the power to remake – or unmake – the world, wants it." Merchant explained Altman's science fiction-infused marketing frenzy: "Scaring off customers isn't a concern when what you're selling is the fearsome power that your service promises."

[...] Altman is at least using apocalyptic AI marketing for actual OpenAI products. The worst kind of doomers is those whose AI panic is their product, their main career, and their source of income. A prime example is the Effective Altruism institutes that claim to be the superior few who can save us from a hypothetical AGI apocalypse.

In March, Tristan Harris, Co-Founder of the Center for Humane Technology, invited leaders to a lecture on how AI could wipe out humanity. To begin his doomsday presentation, he stated: "What nukes are to the physical world ... AI is to everything else."

[...] To further escalate the AI panic, Tristan Harrispublished an OpEd in The New York Times with Yuval Noah Harari and Aza Raskin. Among their overdramatic claims: "We have summoned an alien intelligence," "A.I. could rapidly eat the whole human culture," and AI's "godlike powers" will "master us."

[...] "This is what happens when you bring together two of the worst thinkers on new technologies," added Lee Vinsel. "Among other shared tendencies, both bloviate free of empirical inquiry."

This is where we should be jealous of AI doomers. Having no evidence and no nuance is extremely convenient (when your only goal is to attack an emerging technology).

[...] "Rhetoric from AI doomers is not just ridiculous. It's dangerous and unethical," responded Yann Lecun (Chief AI Scientist, Meta). "AI doomism is quickly becoming indistinguishable from an apocalyptic religion. Complete with prophecies of imminent fire and brimstone caused by an omnipotent entity that doesn't actually exist."

[...] The problem is that "irrational fears" sell. They are beneficial to the ones who spread them.

[...] Are they ever going to stop this "Panic-as-a-Business"? If the apocalyptic catastrophe doesn't occur, will the AI doomers ever admit they were wrong? I believe the answer is "No."

Doomsday cultists don't question their own predictions. But you should.

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