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from the more-good-news-for-your-children-and-yourself dept.
It looks like the Paris Agreement is as dead as the fried chicken at my local deli.
At Paris, in 2015, the World agreed to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The latest report of the EU's Climate Change Service shows (summary pdf) that this target has been royally breached, at least for Europe. Temperatures there, averaged over the last 5 years, have increased by 2.2 degrees celsius.
Europe, at least, has a climate change service to measure these things. As for the rest of the world, an extrapolation of the pattern shown in Figure 1c, here, indicates that, there too, demand for swimming pools and flood insurance will grow.
To illustrate the complexity of the problem, the heatwave in mid-July of 2022 was caused by hot air from the Sahara moving into Europe, driving temperatures above 40 degrees Celsius. By mid-August, a stationary high-pressure system with clear skies and weak winds took hold, and caused a second heatwave, which was made worse due to the soil being dried out by the mid-July event, and no rains since.
Events above the Sahara might have come a second time in play, here. Increasing temperatures lead to a stronger evaporation over sea, while the land heats up more. This results in a stronger temperature gradient, which draws rains deeper inland: heavier rainfalls now are reported in the central Sahara, in summer, with formerly dry valleys being put under four meters of water. This causes less Sahara dust in the atmosphere, and hence shields the land less from solar radiation: the EU's report mentions that 2022 surface solar radiation was the highest in a 40 year record, and part of a positive trend.
To end with a positive note, the EU ain't doing so bad, compared to Greenland: three different heatwaves in 2022, and an average September temperature more than 8 degrees Celsius higher than normal.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Monday April 24, @07:37AM
The figures about Europe are a bellwether, and a very important one at that.
First off, because the data there are most detailed: a dense network of meteorological sensors, long-term institutionalized knowledge and heavy investment in climate modelling. The only other nation that approaches or exceeds the same level of investment in weather and climate prediction is the United States.
Secondly because the large majority of Europe is situated in the temperate climate agricultural goldilocks zone. The data there can be used as a prediction of trends in other such zones in the world, like the Great Plains mentioned in another post, which are important for a substantial part of the world's food supply.
Thirdly, because there's a large geographical variety, with mountain ranges and river valleys all over the map, and in general a close proximity to a sea or ocean. This is what actually surprised me the most: you would expect these factors to have a strong moderating effect, like the difference between a walk in a densely built city centre, and a stroll along a leafy avenue. The most scary thing of the summer fires in France last year [lemonde.fr] is that they started, and continued -- for weeks -- right along the Atlantic Ocean coast.