Here in the U.S., we keep having stupid, ill-informed discussions about our electoral college. In an effort to inject a little information into this, I'd like to take a little time and go through Federalist Paper #68, "The Mode of Electing the President"; this document is attributed to Alexander Hamilton, and presents the Federalists' justification for, well, the mode of electing the president, as originally specified in the then-new Constitution. We'll see that some of the justifications EC supporters like to use are not mentioned, and that most of the benefits claimed do not currently apply to the EC/direct popular election debate.
Before we dig in, a few things worth noting:
To the People of the State of New York:
THE mode of appointment of the Chief Magistrate of the United States is almost the only part of the system, of any consequence, which has escaped without severe censure, or which has received the slightest mark of approbation from its opponents. The most plausible of these, who has appeared in print, has even deigned to admit that the election of the President is pretty well guarded. [1] I venture somewhat further, and hesitate not to affirm, that if the manner of it be not perfect, it is at least excellent. It unites in an eminent degree all the advantages, the union of which was to be wished for.
1. Vide FEDERAL FARMER.
If you're confused, "the Chief Magistrate of the United States" is a description of the President, and "Federal Farmer" was the pen name of an Anti-Federalist who authored a pair of Anti-Federalist Papers critiquing the Constitution.
It was desirable that the sense of the people should operate in the choice of the person to whom so important a trust was to be confided. This end will be answered by committing the right of making it, not to any preestablished body, but to men chosen by the people for the special purpose, and at the particular conjuncture.
This is one of those arguments that serves direct popular election at least as well.
Inapplicable, or maybe even reversed.
It was equally desirable, that the immediate election should be made by men most capable of analyzing the qualities adapted to the station, and acting under circumstances favorable to deliberation, and to a judicious combination of all the reasons and inducements which were proper to govern their choice. A small number of persons, selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass, will be most likely to possess the information and discernment requisite to such complicated investigations.
This is rendered irrelevant by the party system -- rather than choosing electors who we trust to assess the candidates and vote on our behalf, we're choosing electors based on their party allegiance, and trusting them to vote for that party's candidate. They do no "analyzing" or "deliberation", and they are not in any meaningful sense "selected by their fellow-citizens from the general mass" -- in fact, their names are not even on the ballot in many states.
Inapplicable because the parties have corrupted the EC's intent.
It was also peculiarly desirable to afford as little opportunity as possible to tumult and disorder. This evil was not least to be dreaded in the election of a magistrate, who was to have so important an agency in the administration of the government as the President of the United States. But the precautions which have been so happily concerted in the system under consideration, promise an effectual security against this mischief. The choice of SEVERAL, to form an intermediate body of electors, will be much less apt to convulse the community with any extraordinary or violent movements, than the choice of ONE who was himself to be the final object of the public wishes. And as the electors, chosen in each State, are to assemble and vote in the State in which they are chosen, this detached and divided situation will expose them much less to heats and ferments, which might be communicated from them to the people, than if they were all to be convened at one time, in one place.
This is actually an argument against direct popular vote. I'm not sure it's true, given our current electoral system, where seeing a few electors flipped one way or the other (Florida 2000, anyone?) is clearly seen as equivalent to flipping the outcome. (Again, it would be different if electors were chosen for their wisdom and integrity, and left to vote their conscience, rather than pre-committed tot their parties' candidate.)
At best, sometimes it will be non-tumultuous because the race wasn't close enough to be flipped -- but then, 50 states are 50 times as likely to produce a near-tie in some state than a single national election. It's not clear that these effects should precisely cancel, but I believe they do in large part.
Applicable, but not (to me) very persuasive.
Nothing was more to be desired than that every practicable obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue, and corruption. These most deadly adversaries of republican government might naturally have been expected to make their approaches from more than one quarter, but chiefly from the desire in foreign powers to gain an improper ascendant in our councils. How could they better gratify this, than by raising a creature of their own to the chief magistracy of the Union? But the convention have guarded against all danger of this sort, with the most provident and judicious attention. They have not made the appointment of the President to depend on any preexisting bodies of men, who might be tampered with beforehand to prostitute their votes; but they have referred it in the first instance to an immediate act of the people of America, to be exerted in the choice of persons for the temporary and sole purpose of making the appointment. And they have excluded from eligibility to this trust, all those who from situation might be suspected of too great devotion to the President in office. No senator, representative, or other person holding a place of trust or profit under the United States, can be of the numbers of the electors. Thus without corrupting the body of the people, the immediate agents in the election will at least enter upon the task free from any sinister bias. Their transient existence, and their detached situation, already taken notice of, afford a satisfactory prospect of their continuing so, to the conclusion of it. The business of corruption, when it is to embrace so considerable a number of men, requires time as well as means. Nor would it be found easy suddenly to embark them, dispersed as they would be over thirteen States, in any combinations founded upon motives, which though they could not properly be denominated corrupt, might yet be of a nature to mislead them from their duty.
This is an argument against election by the legislature or similar body. It also looks like a good argument against the current system. The claimed benefit that electors cannot be pre-corrupted "without corrupting the body of the people" is only valid if electors are chosen from the body of the people -- with the rise of the two-party system, you only need to corrupt twice the number of electors, that is, the R slate of electors, and the D slate of electors, both groups known well in advance. And in many states, you can predict which party wins with good confidence, and only need to corrupt one slate of electors.
As far as the dispersion over "thirteen" (or fifty) states, that certainly seems no obstacle to party loyalty (which, AIUI, is exactly the sort of motive referred to as "not properly ... corrupt, [but] of a nature to mislead them from their duty").
But of course, nobody does buy electors -- it's pointless. Not only would it be transparently obvious (because there are clear expectations who each elector should vote for), but it's also easier to just corrupt the primary process, and see your favored candidate gets the party nomination.
Inapplicable
Another and no less important desideratum was, that the Executive should be independent for his continuance in office on all but the people themselves. He might otherwise be tempted to sacrifice his duty to his complaisance for those whose favor was necessary to the duration of his official consequence. This advantage will also be secured, by making his re-election to depend on a special body of representatives, deputed by the society for the single purpose of making the important choice.
Simple enough. If we were talking about initial election, I'd point out that our political parties represent just such a group "whose favor was necessary", but we're actually talking about reelection, where political parties don't want to give up the incumbent advantage; AFAIK, they make comparatively few demands on a sitting president compared to an up-and-coming politician currently or soon-to-be seeking the nomination. (This might be different without Washington's example of stepping down after two terms, and its eventually codification in term limits.)
Inapplicable
All these advantages will happily combine in the plan devised by the convention; which is, that the people of each State shall choose a number of persons as electors, equal to the number of senators and representatives of such State in the national government, who shall assemble within the State, and vote for some fit person as President. Their votes, thus given, are to be transmitted to the seat of the national government, and the person who may happen to have a majority of the whole number of votes will be the President. But as a majority of the votes might not always happen to centre in one man, and as it might be unsafe to permit less than a majority to be conclusive, it is provided that, in such a contingency, the House of Representatives shall select out of the candidates who shall have the five highest number of votes, the man who in their opinion may be best qualified for the office.
The process of election affords a moral certainty, that the office of President will never fall to the lot of any man who is not in an eminent degree endowed with the requisite qualifications. Talents for low intrigue, and the little arts of popularity, may alone suffice to elevate a man to the first honors in a single State; but it will require other talents, and a different kind of merit, to establish him in the esteem and confidence of the whole Union, or of so considerable a portion of it as would be necessary to make him a successful candidate for the distinguished office of President of the United States. It will not be too strong to say, that there will be a constant probability of seeing the station filled by characters pre-eminent for ability and virtue. And this will be thought no inconsiderable recommendation of the Constitution, by those who are able to estimate the share which the executive in every government must necessarily have in its good or ill administration. Though we cannot acquiesce in the political heresy of the poet who says: "For forms of government let fools contest That which is best administered is best," yet we may safely pronounce, that the true test of a good government is its aptitude and tendency to produce a good administration.
This is a conclusion, rather than an argument, but it's the closest we get to the idea espoused by some EC supporters, that the Founding Fathers intentionally picked a method requiring a President to win a majority (however slim) in many states, rather than a huge majority in a few states. In point of fact, no such concern is established here -- the concern that Hamilton believes has been defeated is about whether the methods that could make a politician well-known and liked in one state would allow such a politician to win nationally, not that there was ever any concern of a candidate winning only one (or a few) states, and yet winning presidency. The phrase "so considerable a portion of [the Union] as would be necessary to make him a successful candidate", in contrast to a single state, could apply just as well to "a majority of voters" as to "a sufficient number of states to have a majority in the EC", and thus this same statement could have been made, if the Constitution had implemented direct popular election.
But speaking of a politician becoming known and well-liked in one state (or a few) by "the little arts of popularity", and somehow taking the presidency as a result -- doesn't that sound like exactly what all the candidates are trying for when they descend on the early-primary states, hoping to get "momentum" from a win there, and ride it to the party's nomination?
Again, the electoral college could be a good thing, stopping such a candidate's momentum cold in favor of "characters pre-eminent for ability and virtue", but the two-party system means electors are first chosen by their party for loyalty to that party, and then, even if suddenly overwhelmed by a sense of personal duty, have little choice but to hold their nose and vote for their own candidate (low character, but presumably on the "right" side of the issues) or to vote for the opposite party (even if better character, still on the "wrong" side) -- right or wrong, you're a fool to bet on the latter.
The Vice-President is to be chosen in the same manner with the President; with this difference, that the Senate is to do, in respect to the former, what is to be done by the House of Representatives, in respect to the latter.
The appointment of an extraordinary person, as Vice-President, has been objected to as superfluous, if not mischievous. It has been alleged, that it would have been preferable to have authorized the Senate to elect out of their own body an officer answering that description. But two considerations seem to justify the ideas of the convention in this respect. One is, that to secure at all times the possibility of a definite resolution of the body, it is necessary that the President should have only a casting vote. And to take the senator of any State from his seat as senator, to place him in that of President of the Senate, would be to exchange, in regard to the State from which he came, a constant for a contingent vote. The other consideration is, that as the Vice-President may occasionally become a substitute for the President, in the supreme executive magistracy, all the reasons which recommend the mode of election prescribed for the one, apply with great if not with equal force to the manner of appointing the other. It is remarkable that in this, as in most other instances, the objection which is made would lie against the constitution of this State. We have a Lieutenant-Governor, chosen by the people at large, who presides in the Senate, and is the constitutional substitute for the Governor, in casualties similar to those which would authorize the Vice-President to exercise the authorities and discharge the duties of the President.
Well, nobody today seems to want to abolish the Vice-Presidency, so I guess we don't need to get into that bit...
PUBLIUS
And done!
Finally, there's an argument that's not (AFAIK) stated by the Federalists with regards to the EC, but is often mentioned by EC, and not totally without basis. Namely, that the EC strikes a balance between giving each state equal say, and giving each person equal say; as each state's number of electors is equal to their representation in Congress, i.e. 2 for their 2 Senators, plus as many as their Representatives (proportional to population). On one hand, this isn't wrong -- while it's not mentioned (again, AFAIK) for the EC, they certainly didn't follow the same compromise used for Congress by accident. Other proposals were contemplated, and they must have chosen this for the same reason.
But on the other hand the reason the Senate has equal representation per state and the House has equal representation per person was not because that's the one true logical way to run an entity that's half a confederacy of coequal states and half a nation of coequal citizens. It was because the low-population states would have rejected a Constitution calling for both houses of Congress to be proportional to population, and the high-population states would have rejected one calling for both houses to be equal per-state.
Likewise, the use of the same numbers for electors was not for ideological reasons, but because that was the compromise that everyone could live with. And I, for one, have no problem revisiting old compromises -- as long as everyone can live with whatever setup we might replace the EC with, it doesn't matter that it's not the same as it was, 2 centuries and 37 states ago. But if we choose to hold the old compromise sacred, it's simple enough to establish a weighted popular vote, where votes in each state are weighted differently. This keeps the extra impact of small states, but still removes the EC, and still lets voters in non-swing states have an effect on the election. So this argument, valid or not, is no argument for the EC, only against uniformly-weighted popular vote.
(BTW, I've gotten into historical stuff I've not studied in any depth here -- if the simplified version I've no doubt been taught is misleading here, I'd welcome correction.)
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Now maybe you find that third argument more persuasive than I do, and support the EC because you fear a popular vote will cause rioting. If so, cool -- at least you have a reason.
I don't find it persuasive, but I'm still weakly opposed to abolishing the EC. Why?
*I really don't have time to go in-depth here, but briefly: range/score, approval, and probably some Condorcet methods (ones supporting equal-ranking) are all good in this regard, while FPP (our current system), IRV (sometimes misleadingly called "ranked-choice voting", and an inexplicably popular idea to "fix" our voting system), and such Condorcet methods as forbid equal-ranking, all support 2-party lock-in.
The 'editor in chief and publisher' of the MIT Technology Review Jason Pontin took to twitter today. He was replying to WikiLeaks posting a picture of Eric Schmidt wearing a "Clinton Campaign Staff Badge". I with agree with Jason, that image is pretty meaningless by itself. Schmidt private citizen and can support a candidate if he wants to.
However, Jason goes on to say, after being shown differences between suggested searches on DuckDuckGo and Google; "Well, I doubt it... but oooh, no autocorrect: that will swing an election."
Where he goes off the deep end and is either lying or being completely ignorant is when he says "You have no evidence, except your own paranoia, that Google manipulates search results." ... This is from the Editor-in-Chief of the MIT Technology Review.
Here is the leading paragraph from an engadget article written in 2015:
A few years ago, the FTC decided not to pursue an antitrust lawsuit against Google despite finding that its search algorithm really was biased. Now, we finally know the details of that lengthy investigation, thanks to a report written by FTC staffers that recently surfaced due to an open-records request. According to the 160-page report, the employees found evidence that Mountain View was demoting its competitors and placing its own services on top of search results lists, even if they weren't as helpful.
I'm sure most of us have seen the effects of localization and other 'personalization' on search results and suggestions when using Google outside your normal state/country.
This sets an extremely low standard for what the MIT Technology Review publishes from where i'm sitting.
So, I've been sitting here watching the Spam moderations page and the mod-bombs page post-election thinking someone's gonna get butthurt and abuse moderation. It has yet to happen. Kudos to everyone for managing to restrain themselves. You guys make me fucking proud, so I'll leave you with this little bit of humor on an otherwise tense day:
Britain: Brexit is the most shocking thing a country will do this year.
America: Hold my beer...
Reposted from my blog: Operation Sysadmin | Retro Data Structures
One of the more fun things I do with my spare time is to play around with old computers. Specifically, I enjoy my Atari 800. I recently started thinking about a small game to write on the machine, something with a small map, which you can explore. Think Zork, on a very, very limited scale. This is mostly an exercise for me to see if I could pull this off in Atari BASIC.
If you were to make, say a 3x3 grid with a bunch of data attached to it, without getting all Object Oriented, you might choose simple data structure such as a 2-dimensional array, to retrieve data associated with your particular x,y coordinates on the map. A graphical representation of this data might look like this:
1 2 3
1 The start A treasure! A river.
2 A monster! Inscribed Rock The wizard.
3 A forest. A bird. Home
Atari BASIC, has three basic data types, number, character, and boolean. It also has arrays, you can make an array of numbers which is a standard thing, even today, or an array of letters. You may be tempted to call this a string, and it is referred to as such, but if you think of strings in Atari BASIC as character arrays, you're life starts getting easier. You can also make a mufti-dimensional array of numbers. A think that you absolutely cannot do, however, is make a mufti-dimensional character array, a matrix of strings if you will, at least not in a basic straight forward way. This limitation hit me pretty hard. Living in the modern age, I'm used to slamming together data-types in a multitude of different structures, without worrying too much about it.
So, given this limitation, how do you get all that string data into a data structure that you can reference by some sort of position? One place where Atari BASIC helps us out is that I can reference positions in strings and substrings quite easily, which turns out to be the ugly key we need.
Say, I want an array to hold 3 things. myarray$="Mary Bob I really like dogs, they are my favorite." If I wanted to get the word "Bob" out of this, I'd call for myarray$(6,9). Mary would be myarray$(1,4), the sentence would be myarray$(9,51). The issue of course is that all the lengths are irregular. I can't simply retrieve the nth element without knowing it's position in the larger string. But, what if we make the string lengths regular? First determine what the longest string you're going to allow is. In this case the sentence about dogs is 42 characters. Then, multiple, by the number of elements you'll be holding. 3*42=126, so declare a string 126 characters long. Something like the following BASIC code:
10 ELEM=3
20 MAXLEN=42
30 DIM MYARRAY$(ELEM*MAXLEN)
Now, you can reference the different elements by using MAXLEN as a multiplier to get the proper positions. Bob would be MYARRAY$(43,84), or MYARRAY$(MAXLEN,MAXLEN*2-1)
Mary, would be (1,MAXLEN-1). We can wrap the whole idea in a subroutine (No functions here kids!) make the positional calculations:
40 REM GET THE 2nd ELEMENT
50 GET=2
60 GOSUB 100
100 REM ELEMENT RETRIEVAL SUBROUTINE
110 START=GET*MAXLEN-MAXLEN
120 END=START+MAXLEN-1
130 PRINT MYARRAY$(START,END)
140 RETURN
The interesting thing to me about this approach is how incredibly space inefficient it is, especially noticeable when you're working on a machine with 48K of memory. It's also an good reminder about the kind of stuff that has to go on under the covers in our nice modern languages to make them so comfortable to work with.
Remember though, I'm interested in a matrix of strings! It turns out that with a little math you can extend this scheme to make a 2 dimensional array of strings as well. All it takes is another multiplier in there, which incidentally makes this an order of magnitude less efficient.
10 ROW=3
20 COL=3
30 MAXLEN=50
40 DIM MYMATRIX$(ROW*COL*MAXLEN)
50 REM POSITION
60 X=2,Y=1
70 GOSUB 100
100 REM MATRIX RETRIEVAL SUBROUTINE
110 START=X*MAXLEN-MAXLEN+Y*MAXLEN-MAXLEN-1
120 END=START+MAXLEN-1
130 PRINT ARRAY(START,END)
140 RETURN
In this way by manipulating the X and Y variables, and calling the subroutine we can retrieve different "cells" of data in our matrix.
Go ahead and stare at that second basic program for a few minutes until the math sinks in. The start position is calculated just like in the 1 dimensional example, with an additional Y position offset.
This approach will work decently well, for smaller grids with not too much data. Say a 3x3 grid, with each "cell" containing 255 characters or so, results in a use of just under 2.5K. What if you wanted a larger map though, say a 9x9, well that's 20K, almost 1/2 your memory.
The strategy for dealing with this, is to break your 9x9 down into 9 different 3x3 grids. Since this, in theory a map that we are traversing, imagine another variable to hold your current "grid" number, and subroutine to calculate what grid you'll be in when you move. If it's different, load the new grid grid information from disk. In this way, you can keep the memory foot print pretty small, and 2.5K loads pretty quick from a floppy drive.
When I finish up this exercise I will post the code so you can bask in its glory.
Oculus VR made "factually inaccurate" statements in ZeniMax lawsuit, forensic analyst says
A recently-granted motion in the lawsuit between ZeniMax Media and Oculus VR suggests that the case could be about to get very interesting, and not in a way that's good for Oculus. The motion to "permit disclosure of any 'demonstrably inaccurate' representations made to court," as reported by Polygon, indicates that an independent expert investigating the case found sworn statements that are "factually incorrect," and that "critical log files" on one of John Carmack's hard drives were deleted prior to its collection as evidence.
I'm too lazy to give this one the research needed to produce a coherent submission, since I haven't been following the case.
I'm taking away your Air Force One privileges.
President Obama ridiculed on Snapchat by daughter Sasha
The president also mentioned that his own iPhone was limited to receiving emails and browsing the internet, and would not take photos, play music or make calls. "My rule has been throughout my presidency, that I assume that someday, some time, somebody will read this email," he said. "So, I don't send any email that at some point won't be on the front page of the newspapers."
US election 2016: Indians' verdict on Donald Trump's Hindi
An uncanny mixture: God, alcohol and even cannabis
A Stray: Finding and filming the real Somali immigrant experience
John Oliver Pinpoints A Fake Statistic That Fueled The Opioid Crisis
In John Oliver’s latest segment on opioids during Last Week Tonight, he pulled up one of the key statistics pharmaceutical salespeople used to market prescription opioids to doctors in the 1990s: Less than 1 percent of patients taking opioids become addicted to painkillers. That figure is completely inaccurate, of course, and as Oliver points out, it has a disturbing origin story.
Somebody got triggered.
Facebook Employees Pushed to Remove Trump’s Posts as Hate Speech
Some of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump’s posts on Facebook have set off an intense debate inside the social media company over the past year, with some employees arguing certain posts about banning Muslims from entering the U.S. should be removed for violating the site’s rules on hate speech, according to people familiar with the matter.
The decision to allow Mr. Trump’s posts went all the way to Facebook Inc. Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, who ruled in December that it would be inappropriate to censor the candidate, according to the people familiar with the matter. That decision has prompted employees across the company to complain on Facebook’s internal messaging service and in person to Mr. Zuckerberg and other managers that it was bending the site’s rules for Mr. Trump, and some employees who work in a group charged with reviewing content on Facebook threatened to quit, the people said.
Facebook employees argued Trump's posts should be banned as hate speech