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Sixteen: The Final Chapter

It's that time of year again. The time of year when everyone and their dog waxes nostalgic about all the shit nobody cares about from the year past, and stupidly predicts the next year in the grim knowledge that when the next New Year comes along nobody will remember
that the dumbass predicted a bunch of foolish shit that turned out to be complete and utter balderdash. I might as well, too. Just like I did last year (yes, a lot of this was pasted from last year's final chapter).

Some of these links go to /., S/N, mcgrewbooks.com, or mcgrew.info. Stories and articles meant to ultimately be published in a printed book have smart quotes, and slashdot isn't smart enough for smart quotes.

As usual, first: the yearly index:
Journals:
Random Scribblings
the Paxil Diaries
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Articles:
Useful Dead Technologies Redux
The Old Sayings Are Wrong
How to digitize all of your film slides for less than ten dollars
GIMPy Text
The 2016 Hugo convention

Song
My Generation 21st Century
Santa Killed My Dog!

Book reviews
Stephen King, On Writing
Vachel Lindsay, The Golden Book of Springfield
J. D. Lakey, Black Bead

Scince Fiction:
Wierd Planet
The Muse
Cornodium
Dewey's War
The Naked Truth
The Exhibit
Agoraphobia
Trouble on Ceres

Last years' stupid predictions (and more):

Last year I said I wasn't going to predict publication of Voyage to Earth and Other Stories, and I was right, it's nearly done. So this year I do predict that Voyage to Earth and Other Stories will be published. I'm waiting for Sentience to come back from Motherboard, who's been hanging on to it since last February. I may have to e-mail them and cancel the submission if it isn't back by this February.

I'll also hang on to last year's predictions:

Someone will die. Not necessarily anybody I know...
SETI will find no sign of intelligent life. Not even on Earth.
The Pirate Party won't make inroads in the US. I hope I'm wrong about that one.
US politicians will continue to be wholly owned by the corporations.
I'll still be a nerd.
You'll still be a nerd.
Technophobic fashionista jocks will troll slashdot (but not S/N).
Slashdot will be rife with dupes.
Many Slashdot FPs will be poorly edited.
Slashdot still won't have fixed its patented text mangler.
Microsoft will continue sucking.
And a new one: DONALD TRUMP WILL (gasp) BE PRESIDENT IF THE US!!! God help us all! (He can't possibly be worse than George H. Bush or James Buchanan, can he?)

Happy New Year! Ready for another trip around the sun?

Uncertain Propulsion Breakthroughs?

Further into the article, they really trash the recent peer-reviewed paper for having several flaws.

Overview

Technical

(1) The experimental methods and resulting data indicate a possible new force-producing effect, but not yet satisfying the threshold of “extraordinary evidence for extraordinary claims” – especially since this is a measurement of small effects.

(2) The propulsion physics explanations offered, which already assume that the measured force is real, are not sound.

(3) Experiments have been conducted on other anomalous forces, whose fidelity and implications merit comparable scrutiny, specifically Jim Woodward’s “Mach Effect Thruster.”

Implications

(1) If either the EmDrive or Mach Effect Thrusters are indeed genuine, then new physics is being discovered – the ramifications of which cannot be assessed until after those effects are sufficiently modeled. Even if it turns out that the effects are of minor utility, having new experimental approaches to explore unfinished physics would be valuable.

(2) Even if genuine, it is premature to assess the potential utility of these devices. Existing data only addresses some of the characteristics necessary to compare with other technologies. At this point, it is best to withhold judgment, either pro or con.

Pitfalls to Avoid

(1) The earlier repeated tactic, to attempt fast and cheap experimental tests, has turned out to be neither fast nor cheap. It’s been at least 14 years since the EmDrive first emerged (2002) and despite numerous tests, we still lack a definitive conclusion.

(2) In much the same way that thermal and chamber effects are obscuring the force measurements, our ability to reach accurate conclusions is impeded by our natural human behavior of jumping to conclusions, confirmation biases, sensationalism, and pedantic reflexes. This is part of the reality that also needs understanding so that we can separate those influences from the underlying physics.

Edit this journal.

Samsung's New Beauty Products Are Very Judgmental
Samsung Alexa/Echo vacuum
Ford Fusion Hybrid autonomous vehicle
Qualcomm's Snapdragon 835
Samsung Unveils Quantum Dot Curved Monitors
Cars, robots expected to star at CES 2017
The Best of CES 2016: Where Are They Now?
CES 2017: Tech preview of Las Vegas's biggest launches
Microsoft Surface Pro 5 Outed By Manufacturing Partners For March Launch With 4K Display And Kaby Lake

A fun piece over at the Mirror that managed to reach near the top of Google's World news section.

It's Boxing Day!

Update: Malls Across U.S. Beef Up Security After Brawls

OK, I've really done it this time...

One of the things that Turgid jr. got for Christmas was a new Android tablet. It's useless.

Mrs Turgid suggested buying some kind of Amazon kids tablet, and I looked them up on line and they didn't look all that great, certainly not for playing Pokemon Go.

So I asked some of the guys at work about tablets for children. They said you can set up an unprivileged user account in Android and lock it down pretty well so that it's mostly safe for supervised use.

With that in mind I went online and ordered a 10" Acer tablet (Acer Iconia One 10) and lo and behold Acer have removed the ability to create multiple user accounts.

It's my own stupid fault for not unpacking it and trying it out as soon as I bought it. I could have sent it back...

To be honest, it never occurred to me that a manufacturer would remove the ability to have multiple user accounts. It just seems crazy...

Needless to say, this creates a tricky situation. How do you explain to a 7-year-old that Santa Claus is an idiot?

Can I root the machine and put something sane on it?

The 2016 U.S. presidential election took place on Monday. The result:

[...] 304 votes for Donald Trump, 227 for Hillary Clinton, three for Colin Powell, one for Ron Paul, one for Bernie Sanders, one for John Kasich, and one for anti-DAPL activist Faith Spotted Eagle.

Gingrich Says Trump Must Address Business Conflicts Soon, Urges Monitoring

Gingrich: Trump dropping 'drain the swamp'

Trump Adviser Says He Is Ditching 'Drain the Swamp'

Newt Gingrich says Trump is done with ‘drain the swamp’

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_MJbgO7SF0

The God Kek demands many more human sacrifices, otherwise Trump will continue to discard all of his campaign promises. Sacrifice children for the glory of Kek and the success of Trump.

Update: The child sacrifices have satisfied Kek, and Trump will continue his policy of draining the swamp.

http://www.prri.org/research/poll-post-election-holiday-war-christmas/
"“Merry Christmas” vs. “Happy Holidays”: Republicans and Democrats are Polar Opposites"

The actual data shows that Christmas is becoming more cultural and less religious. Not surprising, since Christmas is tied very closely to merchandising and non-Christians are becoming a strong economic force (consumer wise). But under the headline is something more interesting.

"Political liberals are also far more likely than conservatives to say they removed someone from their social media circle due to what they shared online (28% vs. 8%, respectively). Eleven percent of moderates say they blocked, unfollowed, or unfriended someone due to what they posted online."

"There is also a substantial gender gap. Women are twice as likely as men to report removing people from their online social circle because of the political views they expressed online (18% vs. 9%, respectively). Notably, the gender gap also differs significantly across political affiliation. Three in ten (30%) Democratic women say they removed an individual from their online social network because of a political opinion they expressed, while only 14% of Democratic men reported doing this. Republican men and women are about equally as likely to say they blocked, unfollowed, or unfriended someone on social media because of political posts (10% vs. 8%, respectively)."

Apparently republicans are more equal than democrats.

If there was any sort of "we're all in this together" feeling, it would help, but there isn't.

There isn't such a feeling because we aren't all in this together.

Why does US labor have to take a haircut while the 1% get lots more money?

Because you're competing with several billion people who will work for a lot less while the capital of those rich people does not. There's no reason to expect this to be fair. But at the same time, it's not unfair to expect you to adapt to the situation rather than make it worse.

For example, let's say you're the only plumber in a town. You are a paragon of virtue and don't abuse your effective monopoly position and offer prices comparable to neighboring towns which do have more than one plumber.

Then one day, five new plumbers move in and immediately start offering lower and lower prices. It's not fair to you. Nobody else in town has this sort of competition going on. You are losing wealth relative to everyone else who isn't a plumber through no fault of your own. Income inequality increases as a result with six poor plumbers.

At this point, you have a number of choices, all of them bad to some degree. For example, you can attempt to tough it out to be one of the last ones standing, knowing that you'll still have a greatly reduced market share and profit as a result. You can move to a new town and be a plumber there. Or you can abandon plumbing as a career altogether. Maybe you'll try to take a chance and create a new plumbing service that the other plumbers can't match (maybe it'll pay off, maybe it won't)..

There are all ways you could attempt to better your situation. But you could also choose to make the situation worse such as developing a drinking habit. I believe this is going on at a vast scale in the developed world. There's all this entitled talk about how the rich people owe us a good salary and such. Well, they owe the Indians and the Chinese good salaries too. And good salaries there are much less than good salaries in the developed world.

Bottom line is that developed world labor has to be able to offer something that developing world labor can't offer (and it can be as simple as access to a nice market, though the developing world has nice markets too) or it won't get the work for the pay that is desired. Developed world labor just doesn't have pricing power and won't get it until there is near parity with the developing world (which is improving at a good rate) or until some remarkable advantage is created (I'm not seeing the remarkable advantages in the long run).

You want what rich people have, but you don't have leverage to get it. You're not going to make your situation any better by making it harder for rich people to give you what you want.