A diplomatic spat between Turkey and the Netherlands is evolving.
Source of the controversy: Turkey's upcoming referendum on a constitutional change which would give more powers to the president. President Recep Erdoğan has been clamping down on opposition ever since the attempted coup, and securing his reign. Changing the constitution is another step in this process, which is seen by some as a large step towards eradicating democracy.
The Netherlands comes into play as the Turkish ruling party (AK) wishes to campaign for a "yes" vote in other countries, such as Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands. None of those countries is happy with an uninvited campaign visit by foreign politicians. The Turkish minister of foreign affairs was supposed to come to the Netherlands to campaign. The Dutch government strongly counselled against his visit, stating, amongst other reasons, that they do not want the Netherlands to host a rallying call for eradication of democracy. However, the rally could not be forbidden just because the contents was yuck to those in power - free speech and all that.
After this started hitting the news, the owners of the rooms that were booked for these rallies cancelled these bookings. Meanwhile, talks were ongoing between the two countries to resolve the situation. The Dutch government claims that the Turks started threatening with sanctions, and (my rephrasing) refused to be held hostage to how to govern their own country. In the midst of this evolving diplomatic spat, the Turkish minister of foreign affairs got onto a plane to the Netherlands.
As a side note: the Netherlands is having elections in 4 days (15th of March).
It gets better. The short short version:
- Saturday morning, the Dutch government cancelled the landing rights of the plane carrying the Turkish minister of foreign affairs.
- In response, Turkish president Erdogan called the Dutch nazis and fascists
- Turkish and Dutch communities were getting riled up.
This has created an atmosphere where any mayor can forbid a Turkish rally on the legitimate grounds that safety and security cannot be guaranteed. Yeah, that's not helping.
With the elections close, of course there's political posturing. Virtually all politicians think that this is a backwards step for Turkey, and that Turkish politicians should not be campaigning here.
But wait: it gets *even* better!
- Saturday evening, The Turkish minister of education snuck into the Netherlands by car.
- Her motorcade was stopped before arriving at the consulate, as the area around the Turkish consulate was now a no-go area thanks to the rising tensions
- There are calls on social media for Turks to travel to the consulate to protest.
- Turkey just announced that the Dutch ambassador to Turkey (who is not on his post currently) is not welcome back.
The ambassador not being welcome is literally breaking as I write this - I'm sure there will be more developments before this can be posted. See the live updates here.
My €0.02: Freedom of speech is important, even if you end up defending scoundrels (H.L. Mencken). However:
- every municipality has the right to forbid activities on its ground where it feels safety cannot be guaranteed.
- The Netherlands has elections in 4 days. Before today, the actions by the AK party were already decried as a gift to the anti-foreigners party. With current events evolving like this? I would expect quite a significant increase in seats for this party.
Update:
Turkey has just closed Dutch consulate and ambassy, and told the Dutch ambassador (out of country currently) he's not welcome back for now. The closing off is ostensibly for security purposes...
There is a massing of Turks near the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam. Police and various news media are there. Turkish media are getting good shots, others are broadcasting via periscope.
My updated two cents: foreign policy will become the hot topic for the Dutch elections; this is playing straight into the hands of the "Dutch Trump" Geert Wilders.
(and: why does the turkish government feel a need to force the issue now instead of after the Dutch elections? Are they so keen on playing the electoral role of the FBI?)
Read more at CNN and The Guardian.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @09:59AM (5 children)
Either Erdogan is a moron, which does not explain his clinging in top power positions, or he knew Netherlands had elections. He trolled them into accepting Wilders.
What to make out of it? well in Italy we had left and right apparently fighting each other for a century, then, like pokemon, a different party appears and they gang up together in the general indifference. The world politics is now going nationalists vs globalists, each implementing half of the real agenda. Have fun.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by zocalo on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:16AM
Of course, that's not mutually exclusive from the other options, and the possibility that he's pushing the non-immigrant Dutch population to vote for Wilders is certainly something that might be of interest to Erdogan. It's pretty clear at this point he has no real interest in Turkey actually joining the EU, no matter what he says on the topic, and has in fact moved a lot closer to aligning with Russia since the bridge building in the wake of Turkey shooting down a Russian jet fighter. If you subscribe to certain theories, one might even suspect that Putin has been engineering this in order to further the breakup of the EU since that is exactly what most of the Right Wing candidates are promising to do. If the pattern holds, we'll see something similarly engineered in France designed to drive French voters towards Marine Le Pen in the next few weeks since the French elections are across April and May.
UNIX? They're not even circumcised! Savages!
(Score: 5, Insightful) by FakeBeldin on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:19AM (2 children)
Either Erdogan is a moron, which does not explain his clinging in top power positions, or he knew Netherlands had elections. He trolled them into accepting Wilders.
My guess is that this was a deliberate ploy. He also tried with Germany and Austria (where his minister-supporters were equally unwelcome), but I think he realised that with the Dutch elections looming so closely, NL was the perfect place to ensure escalation. And he wanted escalation, to say "look, it's us poor Turks being snubbed by mighty EU! We need to come together as a populace! Vote for me!".
It's a guess, but I cannot think of another reason why he'd force the confrontation now rather than wait a week. There is plenty of time to wait, but apparently forcing the confrontation now is more beneficial to him.
The likely side effect is that parties that will rage against immigrants will get a boost - which again plays into the above hypothetical narrative.
A really sucky aspect about this is that he's likely aware that he's playing into the hands of a few Dutch politicians - as likely as they are aware that their responses will help boost his agenda. It really feels like this was a well-timed diplomatic spat that was escalated to benefit a few parties, merely at the cost of affection elections in at least 2 countries. :(
(Score: 2) by mth on Sunday March 12 2017, @12:04PM (1 child)
I'm not sure this is going to benefit Wilders. All the major parties, left to right, spoke out against Turkish ministers campaigning here. And while Wilders likes to bash progressive party leaders, his main rival when it comes to votes is the party of the current prime minister (conservative liberals--yes that makes sense outside the USA), who got the opportunity to act tough in this spat.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:51PM
Beware of assuming that the actual results were the intended results.
Its an easy mistake to make because humans are wired to look for easily identifiable cause->effect relationships.
But the real world is a lot more chaotic than that.
My opinion is that Wilders and Erdogan are spiritual allies - both drinking from the wellspring of illiberal populism.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by qzm on Monday March 13 2017, @01:04AM
The summary writer forgot to put 'attempted coup' in the required quotes.
There have been few 'coup' attempts for which the response was so well organise (almost, perhaps, pre-organised), the
list of coup organisers to be punished available so early, and so well aligned with the benefit of one single person (the great leader, of course).
Of course the powers that be in the world in general (that you USA, protectors of freedom) seem supporting of this, so the
view of the media is that Erdogan is the good guy. Sets see in ten years.
(Score: 4, Informative) by FakeBeldin on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:13AM (4 children)
In what will probably be the final update on last night's shenanigans:
The Netherlands expelled the Turkish minister for Education [bbc.com].
Quick recap:
* foreigners can be declared undesired if "... (c) they are a threat to public order or national security and do not have legitimate residency in the country, ...", which is likely the case the Dutch government applied here.
Also note that undesired foreigners are required to leave the country "immediately" - though normally a 24hr window applies. (My guess is that the 24hr window is to accommodate picking up stuff and making arrangements - so for folks who have been in the country already a while, not for folks who are entering the country).
(Score: 2) by FakeBeldin on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:26AM (1 child)
"undesired foreigner" = persona non grata [wikipedia.org].
My apologies for not using appropriate legalese - as most, I'm only somewhat acquainted with legalese.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:31AM
at least you didn't say "illegal immigrant"... then you would have had all the lefties crying foul for maltreatment and human rights violations
(Score: 5, Informative) by c0lo on Sunday March 12 2017, @12:27PM (1 child)
I'm told by some friends in NL, she was warned that no rally will be allowed in/near Rotterdam's consulate before she left Germany.
She pushed ahead anyway, in a armoured car, using other 4 convoys as decoy.
This resulted in a stand-off of about 1 hour near the Turkish consulate in Rotterdam (which was cordoned in advance of her arrival). During this time, she used social media to raise the pro-Erdogan turks in an unauthorized (by the Dutch authorities) rally.
DutchNews [dutchnews.nl] says (my emphasis):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0 https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
(Score: 3, Informative) by FakeBeldin on Sunday March 12 2017, @02:03PM
Yup, that's what I'm picking up in the Dutch media as well.
On top of that: the mayor (who is also chief of police) explicitly asked the consulate if someone was coming by. No, they said. The mayor calls this a scandalous attempt at misdirection [youtube.com]. In that video he also states that the Turks were using multiple motorcades to confuse Dutch authorities.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by janrinok on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:13AM (9 children)
Many countries in Europe have significant Turkish migrant populations. Normally, it isn't usually acceptable for a foreign Government to conduct a political campaign in another country, particularly if they haven't been invited to do so. There are large numbers of Russians now settled in the US but I think that the US Government would object (quite rightly, IMO) if the Kremlin decided to hold political rallies on US soil. The Turkish Premier is trying to remove a large part of the democratic process from the Turkish constitution but he is not entirely confident that it will pass through the referendum. So, in an effort to garner as much support as possible, he decided that he wanted hold rallies in various European countries to try to encourage the Turkish migrants resident there to vote for him. Germany refused point blank to accept this. Now the Dutch are expressing the same views because the last thing that they want are the 2 factions that exist in the migrant population in Holland having violent protests against each other.
Despatching senior Turkish politicians to foreign countries without having host government approval is not a right afforded under the usual diplomatic conventions. Erdogan knows this, but he is now trying to place the blame on the Dutch for not permitting him free rein in their own country. The Dutch have partly exacerbated the situation by not initially taking a more firm response when the rallies were first mooted. However, as the inter-migrant tensions are increasing, various levels of local government are taking their own decisions to prohibit the rallies in order to avoid the potential for violence.
Erdogan realises that losing the support of the Turkish migrants might be enough to prevent him from getting his proposals accepted, and he is frustrated that he cannot run his planned campaigns in European. However, this is also showing the problems caused my large migrants communities that have not integrated fully with their host country. The Dutch are remarkably tolerant but recent events, including this spat, are providing some motivation for extreme right-wing views to become increasingly popular. A similar effect has been seen across much of Europe and the recent US elections have shown that even countries that are well-known for accepting and welcoming migrants have concerns at the effects that such migration might have on their core beliefs and values.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by driverless on Sunday March 12 2017, @11:04AM (3 children)
There are large numbers of Russians now settled in the US but I think that the US Government would object (quite rightly, IMO) if the Kremlin decided to hold political rallies on US soil.
In any case they wouldn't need to, they already have a man in the White House.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @04:08PM (2 children)
The Russians in America are mostly Jews who were allowed out of the Soviet Union decades back.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday March 12 2017, @04:57PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @11:07PM
> The Russians in America are mostly Jews who were allowed out of the Soviet Union decades back.
So what?
(Score: 2) by Urlax on Sunday March 12 2017, @11:29AM (1 child)
there is a difference:
turkish imigrants keep their nationality AND their children become Turkish citizens automatically.
So in the Netherlands there are a lot of second/third generation immigrants, which have only visited Turkey during holiday. They are however full citizens of turkey, and (I assume) can cast their vote aswell.
so like your analogy, it would be the Kremlin rallying on US soil, towards US citizens (which happen to have a double nationality due to Russian law, not by choice).
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @04:05AM
Did you mean Turkish emigrants?
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @05:31PM (2 children)
tl;dr
Europe is finished. The untermensch they let flooding in are burning down their happy little mono culture utopias. Terrorism, religious violence, racial violence, general crime will become the new norm. Thousands of years of culture annihilated. Europe is the new ghetto frontier along the lines of negro and hispanic infested urban slums on the USA. The utopias the white man built are burning. Good job everyone. This is why I wont have kids.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by jimshatt on Sunday March 12 2017, @09:40PM
Some good news, after all...
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday March 13 2017, @03:49AM
Put a username to your comments, Coward. If the truth is an absolute defense and you've done nothing wrong, you have nothing to hide, riiiii~ght?
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @10:28AM
russia must be trying to meddle in elections in the netherlands
send your kids to war in russia to topple the nasty dictator pooty poot poot
(Score: 3, Informative) by fritsd on Sunday March 12 2017, @11:34AM (2 children)
I expect that the results of this conflict are not anything rational, but instead subliminal side-effects to influence the election and referendum:
Dutch population (going to vote in 4 days):
"OMG! All I see on TV is angry Turkish muslims on the streets in my city!" I'll vote Wilders coming week! He promised to do something against angry muslims!
Nederturks (going to vote in NL election in 4 days, TR referendum in a month):
"OMA! We can't even have a peaceful democratically allowed demonstration in Rotterdam in order to remove democracy from our motherland! This is outrageous! Let's vote DENK [wikipedia.org] here, and for our Glorious Leader's autocratic rights in the Motherland! Meanwhile, I'm off to join the Grey Wolves [wikipedia.org]!
Nederturks, Gülen branch: ... fuck ... Erdogan and Wilders are both fucking us over ... are they going to close our kids' school next?
Turkish Turks (going to vote in referendum in a month):
"OMA! It's true what our Glorious Leader says: all those bloody Europeans are against us! He is the only one that can protect us from the Gülenists [wikipedia.org] and the EU! They never really respected us anyway! Let's give him more power next month!"
Erdogan and Wilders:
"High Five!"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @01:28PM (1 child)
Does not seem wrong! It always puzzles me when nationalist leaders co-operate across borders (Trump, Farage, Le Penn, etc.) to defeat those parties who want to... co-operate across borders. I guess when they do it, it's For God And Truth and when we do it it's to impose The New World Order. Both of which are right-wing fictions, incidentally.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday March 12 2017, @03:30PM
It always puzzles me when nationalist leaders co-operate across borders (Trump, Farage, Le Penn, etc.) to defeat those parties who want to... co-operate across borders.
What's puzzling about it? It's straightforward ideological conflict. Not to scare anyone, but similar things happened in Europe leading up to the Second World War and during the Cold War with international cooperation between ideologically similar groups quite common - that's most of living memory right there. Moving on, what sort of cooperation is there really in this case? I don't see a great deal of interaction or support between these different leaders you mentioned.
(Score: 5, Informative) by fritsd on Sunday March 12 2017, @12:03PM (2 children)
Here's an interesting point of view: Achmed Aboutaleb(*), the mayor of Rotterdam
(in Dutch)
http://www.volkskrant.nl/binnenland/burgemeester-aboutaleb-we-zijn-schandalig-misleid~a4473368/ [volkskrant.nl]
It really sounds like the Turkish government is shit-stirring in the Netherlands on purpose:
WTF is the purpose of organise a demonstration in a foreign country, and sending several of your ministers to a foreign country there in the hope that one breaks through the police cordon to address Erdogan sympathisers??? It doesn't sound like a thing that a democratic government would normally do to another, befriended, democratic government, 4 days before the latter's national elections.
And then about Erdogan's comment calling the Dutch Nazis: the city centre of Rotterdam was completely bombed flat by the Nazis [wikipedia.org]. Heart ripped out (see sculpture by Zadkine [wikipedia.org]). Talk about insensitive!
In NL, the mayor of a city is politically responsible for demonstrations (as chief of police). The mayor can forbid demonstrations if he/she can argue a realistic danger of riots. There are loads of people from Turkish and from Kurdish descent in Rotterdam. Erdogan isn't as popular in NL as at home.
(*) Aboutaleb is from Moroccan descent, not Turkish descent, btw.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @01:34PM
It only takes one idiot to pick a fight. It will take two to turn it into a war. I guess this is where the nationalist trend is heading, if we get hot heads in charge of a few of the normally boring, stable countries.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Sunday March 12 2017, @03:19PM
WTF is the purpose of organise a demonstration in a foreign country, and sending several of your ministers to a foreign country there in the hope that one breaks through the police cordon to address Erdogan sympathisers???
Cheap propaganda. Erdogan's cronies aren't too dumb to figure out how to publicly play the role of victim.
(Score: 2) by fritsd on Sunday March 12 2017, @12:14PM (1 child)
In related news, the prime-minister of the Netherlands (no, not Geert Wilders, it's still Mark Rutte for now) has announced a travel ban for all muslims travelling from muslim countries with the following properties:
(1) Must have Ankara as capital city
(2) Where the Muslim country is partially European, partially Asian, and has a crescent moon in the flag
(3) Travel ban is limited to persons who are ministers of their government. I.e. not Tarkan [wikipedia.org], or DENK politicians, or Wesley Sneijder.
http://www.volkskrant.nl/opinie/rutte-inreisverbod-voor-ministers-uit-moslimlanden-waarvan-ankara-hoofdstad-is~a4471295/ [volkskrant.nl]
;-)
Oh I forgot:
</sarc> post may include alternative facts.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @01:31PM
Not true! Fake news!
(Score: 3, Insightful) by khallow on Sunday March 12 2017, @03:16PM (1 child)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @11:05PM
Lol, you keep citing one guy's personal opinion to back up that claim.
A guy who almost lost his job for trying to publish anti-semitic cartoons. [bbc.co.uk]
If only the nazi rise to power were caused by the phenomena in question, not merely blamed. [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @04:47PM (3 children)
is the poster really serious when he says his opinion is:
"- every municipality has the right to forbid activities on its ground where it feels safety cannot be guaranteed."
WTF is this, governing by feeling??? Should we just let our "betters" take decisions about what to allow and forbid based on feelings?
I wish you to live in those kind of places where police stops you on the street based on feeling, and all laws are passed in the same way ...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday March 12 2017, @05:04PM
I must admit that I don't really see what possible safety and security issues there could be that require "guarantees" the municipality is required by law to provide, yet can't provide. But then again, it's civilized Europe. They have all sorts of problems with free speech that barbaric countries like the US never seem to have.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 12 2017, @05:11PM
Welcome to soylentnews. See the "Reply to This" button under each post? Feel free to use it.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by fritsd on Tuesday March 14 2017, @06:22AM
Of course it is a crappy and sub-optimal solution, you're right.
However, countries like the Netherlands have found that it works better than the alternative: tally the dead demonstrators, contra-demonstrators, police, and bystanders, and then decide accurately afterwards whether that particular demonstration should have been forbidden on that particular day :-)
Demonstrations aren't always peaceful. What if a "Kurdish" provocateur had lobbed a brick at the head of the Turkish minister of Family Affairs? Casus Belli.
I believe there are mechanisms to sue the mayor if you think that the local government overreacted in forbidding a demonstration. Freedom of assembly is still the basic law, it's in the Dutch constitution, and it's an ECHR-backed human right.
https://nl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vrijheid_van_vergadering [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @02:00AM (4 children)
This is not a forum frequented by political analysts, and it shows.
Why you all (most) think that the whole thing has been cooked up by Erdogan is beyond me.
I mean, yes, he has been in power for 15 years (double that if you count his mayorship of Istanbul), but he is not a mastermind at a superhuman-level.
What's more, he has absolutely nothing to gain from creating a belligerent Turkish Diaspora in Europe especially when far-right's steps (in various EU countries) to power is getting louder by the day.
The threat that Turkish Diaspora (in EU) may end up much less comfortable than it is now is very real --keep in mind that the population we're speaking of is about 5 million, of which 1 million is eligible in Turkish elections, and further, of which 600,000 will vote for Erdogan no matter what.
So, for a couple of hundred thousand (at best) more votes, he'd be jeopardizing 5 million people down the line.
And, yes, those 5 million would be his problem simply because his term (as president) will not end until 2019.
[I am aware that I have thrown around more numbers than usual for this type of debate, but let me do a few more.]
Turkey has 25 million voters. Half of that number will vote for Erdogan. IOW, he already has 12-13 million votes.
Getting a couple of hundred more is always nice, but do you really think he is such a moron to risk 5 million people for a 1.5 percent increase in votes?
Personally, I doubt he is.
So, what's going on?
Simple: Erdogan has a stake in doing whatever he can to prevent far-right gaining more power in Europe. He also has a stake in the referendum, of course.
So, if he somehow manages to assist the current parties in power (in various EU countries) appear to be doing what far-right would have done if they get elected, then, there's less chance for European voters to sway towards far-right.
IOW, give the current governments a chance to display how xenophobic, racist or islamophbic they can be and hope that it will soothe the far-right undercurrent enough that they will not get in.
This, I am sure, is going down rather nicely with the current governments.
But, it does not end there --of course. Erdogan gets to be something of a hero in the eyes of his voters which will no doubt sway some of the undecideds towards him.
In other words, this is a win-win situation for a lot of parties.
If any of you has watched the 'Euro Saussige' episode of 'Yes, Minister' will immediately see a lot of analogies.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by FakeBeldin on Monday March 13 2017, @07:43AM (1 child)
Why you all (most) think that the whole thing has been cooked up by Erdogan is beyond me.
Let's see, why do I think that?
- Turkish government (led by Erdogan) said they wanted to have ministers go to NL to campaign for a yes vote in a referendum that will give more power to Erdogan
- They were asked not to do this
- They said they were going to anyway
- When the plane carrying one of their ministers was forbidden from landing, another of their ministers suddenly arranged 4 motorcades to travel by car
- The consulate denies anyone is on the way
- The consulate initiates a social media campaign to get supporters to come to the consulate when the minister's motorcade arrives
Hmms, weird. I thought if I'd lay out the facts I'd see some controlling, guiding force behind it, but now that those facts are there, it all seems pure coincidence. </sarcasm>
What's more, he has absolutely nothing to gain from creating a belligerent Turkish Diaspora in Europe especially when far-right's steps (in various EU countries) to power is getting louder by the day.
You're right, a Turkish congregation where lots of Turkish flags are waved and people are shouting his name will definitely lead to the creation of a "belligerent Turkish Diaspora". There's only one minor point: no it won't.
In other words, this is a win-win situation for a lot of parties.
That's what others have been pointing out above already.
Simple: Erdogan has a stake in doing whatever he can to prevent far-right gaining more power in Europe.
No he doesn't. The more far-right gets into power, the more Turkey needs a strong man to protect it from the evils of Europe. If Europe is a threat to Turkey, people will align with their protector. If Europe is Turkey's best friend and will help keep Turkey safe from all the evils in the world, the benefits of a strong leader become negligible?
This is not a forum frequented by political analysts, and it shows.
Yeah, it'd be nice if one would show up, but it seems we're out of luck in that regard.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @10:11PM
Same AC here.
Actually, this is a nightmare scenario that would be much bigger than what Erdogan could handle.
To stand up against one or the other EU leader (and have a raw with them) is one thing, to have to actually protect Turkish citizens living outside TR is an entirely another.
Not everyone has completely forgotten (or choses to forget) the plight of the Jews of Europe of only a couple of generations ago.
After all, we're talking about a mere 5 million people --whih is 1 million short of the number of Jews claimed to have perished at the time.
The threat is not that another Holocaust will actually happen, but if the perception of threat is real enough, there'll be an exodus of upto 5 million people returning to Turkey overnight.
While this might be a wet dream for European far-right, it definitely is a nightmare scenario given that TR has 3.5 million Syrian refugees.
In short, this sort of thing is a nuclear/zero option. A politial suicide.
You're looking at this from the wrong angle, IMO. if Europe turns out to be a threat to Turkey, the protector TR people will seek will defintely not be Erdogan; it will be some general --some sort of modern day Ataturk, I mean.
Again, no. Erdogan's ticket to power has not been on nationalistic issues (though, like all politicians, he might jockey on that too); his base is the up-and-coming lower (economic) classes. Anything that helps increase the level of prosperity for these crowds helps Erdogan. Everything else is a minus for him.
Permanent or hard alienation with Europe is not a plus, and he knows it.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @03:37PM (1 child)
Cooked up by him? No. He's not that clever. Cooked up for his benefit? That would be a more accurate guess. He's trying to cement and expand his power and there are always those who will nail their flag to any mast that looks to be irrevocably floating toward power (and money, etc), so Erdogan of course has these fairweather friends who have made the calculation that supporting him is good for them; it will have taken multiple people to organise this charade and Erdogan is, as previously stated, not that bright. He thought he could use the conflict in Syria and its resultant refugee crisis to extract favours from the EU, something that has not been successful. It's also widely rumoured that he's been trading with Daesh and while there may not be any concrete evidence yet, if any is found he might well have flattened Turkey's EU ambitions irrevocably. Any ideas about cosying-up to Putin are also not likely to get very far as Turkey has little to offer Russia in return for their "help".
It is a mistake to think Erdogan has any thought beyond his own power.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 13 2017, @11:23PM
EU --as a political entity-- has never been a player in the Syrian conflict; France, Germany and UK, on the other hand, were involved --though not at all coherently, which made the whole thing more complex.
What made the issue unresolvable was, IMO, the way USA acted: Initially through peaceful means, then --almost suddenly-- by military conflict, actively supporting every insurgent group there is.
This 'creative chaos' had interesting results: It pushed aside all Europen players (France, Germany and UK); and left TR in a very precarious position as to which god to worship given that the US would change its position about which insurgent group it is supporting every other month or so.
Add to it that the US (and EU) refused to create a no-fly zone in Syria where the refuees could be sheltered, ended up with millions of Syrians flocking to the adjacent counties --including TR.
The EU only realized how big the problem is when a small percent tried to seek asylum there; and blamed TR for not stopping them.
IOW, solution to Syrian refugees problem is by stopping them going to EU; that is it: As long as they don't disturb the EU, there's no more a problem.
And, asking for chipping in to share the financial burden is, somehow, 'to extract favours from the EU'.
Actually, there are other --more widely held-- rumors as to who created DAESH and who are still supporting it by not doing anything meaningful to stop it; but we won't go into it here.
Regarding the 'Turkey's EU ambitions', do you still believe there is such a thing any more especially after Brexit?
As far as the rest of the world is concerned, 'EU' is there in name only. It cannot act coherently --heck, it cannot act; it is paralysed for all practical purposes.
It does have financial power; but cannot use it because one or the other member state may not go along with the proposal (which more often than not is the case).
It does not have military power. It is entirely dependent on NATO which is financed and commanded by the US.
And, the US --it seems-- is not, any more, willing to pay for providing protection to the EU so that they use that cosy freedom to do any business it likes to do with China, helping elevate China to be a major threat/competitor to the US's interests elsewhere in the world.
So.. at a time when we're at the onset of a major tear-up of the good old Western bloc, do you really blame any non-EU country (especially those with no hope in hell to join too) to seek other alliances?
Heck, if it wasn't for NATO, I am sure Germany would be the first one to get in bed with RU.
This I have already agreed on.