In an interview posted just before the release of the latest TOP500 list, high performance computing expert Dr. Thomas Sterling (one of the two builders of the original "Beowulf cluster") had this to say about the possibility of reaching "zettascale" (beyond 1,000 exaflops):
I'll close here by mentioning two other possibilities that, while not widely considered currently, are nonetheless worthy of research. The first is superconducting supercomputing and the second is non-von Neumann architectures. Interestingly, the two at least in some forms can serve each other making both viable and highly competitive with respect to future post-exascale computing designs. Niobium Josephson Junction-based technologies cooled to four Kelvins can operate beyond 100 and 200 GHz and has slowly evolved over two or more decades. When once such cold temperatures were considered a show stopper, now quantum computing – or at least quantum annealing – typically is performed at 40 milli-Kelvins or lower, where four Kelvins would appear like a balmy day on the beach. But latencies measured in cycles grow proportionally with clock rate and superconducting supercomputing must take a very distinct form from typical von Neumann cores; this is a controversial view, by the way.
Possible alternative non-von Neumann architectures that would address this challenge are cellular automata and data flow, both with their own problems, of course – nothing is easy. I introduce this thought not to necessarily advocate for a pet project – it is a pet project of mine – but to suggest that the view of the future possibilities as we enter the post-exascale era is a wide and exciting field at a time where we may cross a singularity before relaxing once again on a path of incremental optimizations.
I once said in public and in writing that I predicted we would never get to zettaflops computing. Here, I retract this prediction and contribute a contradicting assertion: zettaflops can be achieved in less than 10 years if we adopt innovations in non-von Neumann architecture. With a change to cryogenic technologies, we can reach yottaflops by 2030.
The rest of the interview covers a number of interesting topics, such as China's increased presence on the supercomputing list.
Also at NextBigFuture.
Previously: Thomas Sterling: 'I Think We Will Never Reach Zettaflops' (2012)
Related: IBM Reduces Neural Network Energy Consumption Using Analog Memory and Non-Von Neumann Architecture
IEEE Releases the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS)
June 2018 TOP500 List: U.S. Claims #1 and #3 Spots
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