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Title    Looking Up - Solar Storms This Weekend -- UPDATED
Date    Friday May 10, @06:41AM
Author    janrinok
Topic   
from the dept.
https://soylentnews.org/article.pl?sid=24/05/10/0627245

Three of our community had sent in submissions regarding the solar storms expected to arrive over the weekend. Auroras, weather permitting, will be visible over much of the northern hemisphere. For those of you who like to see such things, or for those of you looking for something different to do, why not get outside and take a look:

Updated flare status

"dalek" writes:

For the first time since October 2003, G5 conditions have been observed. This is described as an extreme geomagnetic storm and is the highest level on NOAA's scale for geomagnetic storms. In addition to reaching G5 conditions, an S2-level solar radiation storm was observed today, and HF radio blackouts at the R3-level have occurred multiple times.

If you're hoping to see auroras, NOAA provides real-time short-range ~30-60 minute forecasts of auroral activity in both the northern and southern hemispheres. There is also a separate dashboard for monitoring disruptions to HF radio.

Solar storms incoming this weekend

c0lo writes:

Earth prepares for solar storm impact from three CMEs this weekend

Solar activity has reached high levels in the past 24-36 hours, with background flux at or near M1.0. The most significant developments from the Sun include the growth and merging of Regions 3664 and 3668, as well as the production of numerous M-class solar flares and two X-class solar flares from CMEs that are expected to arrive at Earth this weekend.

A particularly volatile sunspot has sent a series of solar storms surging toward the Earth, many of which are due to hit in the next few days.

Sunspot AR3663 released five plumes of solar plasma—coronal mass ejections, or CMEs—in the past day, with the second, third, and fifth being forecast to slam directly into our planet this weekend.

This could lead to "strong" geomagnetic storms in our magnetic field and atmosphere, which could result in auroras being seen as far south as Illinois and Oregon.

auroras incoming!

An Anonymous Coward writes:

Auroras will be visible from much of the Northern Hemisphere tonight through Saturday night!

https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/experimental/images/aurora_dashboard/tomorrow_nights_static_viewline_forecast.png

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center Issues Rare G4 Watch for Incoming CME

"dalek" writes:

NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has issued a rare G4 watch for incoming coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are expected to arrive as early as 18-21 UTC on Friday. NOAA's scale for geomagnetic storms is based on the planetary K-index, and goes as high as G5. The K-index is a measure of horizontal disturbances in Earth's magnetic field caused by the interaction of the CME with Earth's magnetosphere, and is estimated from observations collected by many ground-based magnetometers.

Although G4 conditions occurred as recently as March 23 of this year, the SWPC has not forecasted G4 conditions since January 2005. The most recent time G5 conditions were reached was during the 2003 Halloween solar storms. In a G4 geomagnetic storm, auroras may be visible at geomagnetic latitudes as low as 45°.

A large cluster of sunspots ejected several CMEs which have merged during their approach to Earth. The incoming geomagnetic storm is currently forecasted to be most severe from 03-12 UTC on Saturday, with the highest planetary K-index expected to be 8.33. Another CME is expected to start impacting Earth around 15 UTC on Saturday, with the geomagnetic storm peaking at G2 conditions between 03-06 UTC on Sunday.

If you'd like to monitor geomagnetic disturbances, there are guides for DIY projects (1, 2, and 3) where you can construct your own magnetometer capable of measuring nanoTesla-scale variations in the magnetic field to monitor for auroras.


Original Submission #1Original Submission #2Original Submission #3Original Submission #4

Links

  1. "October 2003" - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed
  2. "highest level on NOAA's scale for geomagnetic storms" - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
  3. "real-time short-range ~30-60 minute forecasts of auroral activity" - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental
  4. "dashboard for monitoring disruptions to HF radio" - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/radio-communications
  5. "c0lo" - https://soylentnews.org/~c0lo/
  6. "Earth prepares for solar storm impact from three CMEs this weekend" - https://www.earth.com/news/earth-prepares-impact-three-cme-events-solar-storms/
  7. "the Sun" - https://www.earth.com/news/team-creates-video-showing-the-sun-in-gamma-rays-over-a-14-year-period/
  8. "A particularly volatile sunspot has sent a series of solar storms surging toward the Earth, many of which are due to hit in the next few days." - https://www.newsweek.com/solar-storm-geomagnetic-cme-hitting-earth-1898763
  9. "issued a rare G4 watch for incoming coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that are expected to " - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/swpc-issues-its-first-g4-watch-2005
  10. "arrive as early as 18-21 UTC on Friday" - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts-dashboard
  11. "NOAA's scale for geomagnetic storms" - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
  12. "planetary K-index" - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
  13. "magnetometers" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetometer
  14. "2003 Halloween solar storms" - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Halloween_solar_storms
  15. "1" - https://hackaday.com/2012/01/21/pvc-magnetometer-to-measure-magnetic-storms/
  16. "2" - https://hackaday.com/2014/07/25/a-diy-geomagnetic-observatory/
  17. "3" - https://hackaday.io/project/168083-opensource-aurora-monitor-for-schools-home
  18. "Original Submission #1" - https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=62784
  19. "Original Submission #2" - https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=62785
  20. "Original Submission #3" - https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=62782
  21. "Original Submission #4" - https://soylentnews.org/submit.pl?op=viewsub&subid=62786

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printed from SoylentNews, Looking Up - Solar Storms This Weekend -- UPDATED on 2024-11-06 01:14:20