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Got my first successful heart attack one month before my birthday - many happy returns.
_{^{maybe I still have a chance to see the bug stopping my modpoints cleared before I die, but I won't hold my breath, I'm still short of it}} :large-grin:

But I digress. Or just decided I might as well waste the rest of my life browsing the Internet. Or something.
In any case, if you reck'n you have 20 mins to waste watching YTes: "Social Constructs (or, 'What is A Woman, Really?')"

but now has been archived. No new comments can be posted.

... Remember, every single user can submit stories, moderate, and contribute to discussions all at the same time, and that's what makes us unique....

That is just as true today as it was then.

That was the, ummm, statistic of the year at the time and continues to be.

... I stumbled on this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9SUjqIvVZHY

Speculative, but plausible. In short: lately, Putin lost the plot and got off the rails. On top of an autocratic and Russian imperialist mindset, he managed to get rid of all opposition, therefore he can't be sure if today he has the same power as yesterday.

TIPS ON PRECISION SPINDLE REBUILD
You see, they are just tips - like, 90 minutes of them.

More precision machining porn:
https://www.youtube.com/c/ROBRENZ/videos

https://www.youtube.com/user/oxtoolco/videos

Will Xi’s Paranoia Defeat Him?

However, Xi takes the paranoia that has been endemic to Chinese politics since Mao Zedong’s rule to an extreme. China is stronger than ever. It has a hugely successful economy, a capable military, and growing global influence. The government enjoys a high level of public support. Yet Xi’s fixation on security betrays his persistent feelings of vulnerability. Xi’s “overall national security outlook” is more holistic than Hu’s, more party-centered, and more explicitly highlights external threats.
...
Xi’s moves to suppress domestic threats have often shocked the world in part because they have been so sudden. These include the revision of the constitution to allow Xi to remain leader for life, the incarceration of around 1 million Uyghur Muslims in Xinjiang, the imposition of the 2020 national security law that destroyed Hong Kong’s freedoms almost overnight, the 2021 regulatory storm against private internet firms, and the two-month COVID-19 lockdown of Shanghai. These actions came as bolts from the blue because Xi decided on them with little broader debate or deliberation. The combination of Xi’s unbridled power and the competition of other officials to prove their unquestioning loyalty to him propelled policy toward overreach.
...
It all came full circle when China’s former minister of justice, Fu Zhenghua, a man sometimes called “Xi’s muscle,” was himself arrested in April for corruption and disciplinary infractions. Another former deputy head of public security, Sun Lijun—who was considered so reliable that Xi sent him to Wuhan, China, after the COVID-19 outbreak—was arrested last year. Xi replaced Fu and Sun with two of his more trusted followers, Wang Xiaohong and Chen Yixin, who are likely to be elevated to the Politburo at the 20th Party Congress. Just weeks before the Party Congress, Fu and Sun were sent to prison for life.

Up to here, there are compelling arguments for "Xi's paranoia" (hint, there are more of the same kind in TFA, feel free to read them yourself).

What does it mean, tho'?

Xi’s centralized version of social control is far more granular and pervasive—closer to a totalitarian state—than Hu’s fragmented bureaucratic version. The regime has unprecedented capabilities to surveil people and collect and analyze their personal data. For instance, China leads the world in facial recognition artificial intelligence. The security apparatus has grafted these surveillance technologies onto a system inherited from the Mao era of mutual supervision by neighbors.
...
Like Hu, Xi wants to shift social management down to the grassroots to relieve the center’s burden. He has adopted the Hu-era slogan: “Small issues don’t leave the village, big things don’t leave the township, and no conflicts are passed on to higher authorities. Since becoming party secretary of Zhejiang province in 2002, Xi has been promoting a method developed in a Zhejiang township during the Mao era in 1963. It is called the “Fengqiao experience,” referring to the way this community involved the masses in its struggle against reactionaries, along with the party and the police.

• that would explain how COVID got away, with the regional leaders reluctant to break the news to the supreme one. Viruses aren't that pliable to ideology, tho'
• the risk of "situations going out of hand" is likely to continue. The economy has the same bad habit of being stubborn to ideology; not because some "free market fairy", just because of being complex enough to manifest deterministic chaos even under the best management.
• the "leader's head in the sand" strategy, what a good one to stay clueless and take whatever decisions you like, because you are fed with a reality that you will like. Until it's too late, that is

Xi’s sense of political vulnerability is reflected in his strivings to impose almost totalitarian social control on Chinese society and eliminate all potential rivals. Security has eclipsed economic development as the CCP’s defining goal. But this approach to governance could backfire on Xi during his third term. A party that puts ideological loyalty ahead of economic results is not going to retain its popular appeal for long.

Well, well... That's a mistake, Xi's rule is not based on popular appeal. If the things go wrong, Xi won't be overthown by a popular uprising. The two most likely outcomes (and they can happen in the same time):

1. the chinese citizens are repressed enough to endure the consequences of leadership mismanagement. If they don't comply enough... then:
2. Xi moves to wag the dog. Taiwan is the easiest, but the South China Sea is large enough to create wagging opportunities. If the things still need to go deeper on this path, its not like "the West" doesn't have potential to be painted as the "enemy of the people" or the "reason for which the world can't live in peace" (and speak mandarin)

Early vote count surpasses ordinary midterm turnout

University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who oversees the Elections Project, said that early turnout so far in 2022 was higher than usual for a midterm election.
...
"We do know that interest is running high for the election. We can see the sorts of indicators that would suggest that we're in for a high-turnout election, much like we had in 2018. And 2018, was the highest midterm turnout rate since 1914," he said.
...
Florida leads in early voting participation

According to the U.S. Elections Project data, nearly a third of all of the early votes that have been cast so far, were done so in Florida-- it's the only state where early vote totals exceed 600,000.
...
Florida leads the pack as GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis on Thursday signed an executive order which allows voters in areas devastated by recent Hurricane Ian -- coastal counties Lee, Charlotte and Sarasota -- more flexibility to request and cast their ballots.

The expanded voting order adds three days to early voting, and waives the requirement for voters to supply a signature when requesting a vote by mail ballot at a new address– a new voting law passed in 2021– and authorizes election supervisors to designate additional early voting locations, among other measures.
...

Heh, another funny season may be brewing, better finish my work early to allow meself some popcorn time.

Post-Putin - the way I see it today, Putin is "gambling for resurrection". Shortest way to put it:

"Strength is the only source of Putin's legitimacy," Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin, told The New York Times. "And in a situation in which it turns out that he has no strength, his legitimacy will start dropping toward zero."

Dead man walking, as it comes - even if it comes with the "Don't write Putin off as yet" caveat - indulge me as the starting hypothesis for the rest of my post.

---

The interesting question: and then... what?

1. Russia without a Putin successor - even without one for just some time (i.e. as a transient period)

You know, the power vacuum is not a supersized cleaning implement.

Such a Russia will start as a chaotic gathering of "republics" (each one with its own constitution or charter, legislation head, a parliament, and a constitutional court), with various level of "territorial control" over WMD arsenals (nukes, yes, but don't dismiss the bio- and chem- variants). Now, a "Russia without a Putin successor" is a "Russia without controlled army (if there'd be an army at all)" and I shudder at the though of some of such republics going "terrorist state with access to WMD".

Follow up questions:
- what's the new plan (Stan, you can't just slip out the back, Jack) to fill the power vacuum until Russia stabilizes?
- is the rest of this world even able to agree on a plan (any plan), or any attempt to put one up will just ensue another kind of chaos (in the rest of this world and/or just Russia)?

2. Russia with a Putin successor

2.a Authoritarian successor
Most of the today's candidates would be willing to continue the "gamble for resurrection" with Ukraine. If so, they'll be short lived - Russia's weaknesses are systemic and one can't just fix a mechanism while is hurling down and losing parts in the process - so the question will arise again.

An "enlightened despot"? Able to swallow the defeat, fight off the aggressive contenders, with enough authority over at least the Russian secret service and with enough trust in the population to allow her/him the "new start" chance? I really don't see any candidate for the moment, do you?

2.b.Democratic successor - restarting the democracy engine in Russia after the damage Putin inflicted during his "reign".
Like:
- cleaning up the "corruption grease" to actually allow for informed elections?
- candidates? The ones you'd like are the ones who kept mum their opposition to Putin (and, thus, are able to stand for election by the simple virtue of being still alive), but then how do the Russians get to know enough about to trust them?
- electoral campaign in a country where the Putin's opposition was stripped of their media access/assets?

Alternatives
How about just let Putin live but find something to offer him to save his face in this stupid war he started? What Ukraine could or be willing to offer him (other than just exploding American missiles, even if the giving is justified)?

Linkies:

- https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/27/putin-regime-fall-ukraine-west-negotiate
- https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/sep/30/those-desiring-regime-change-in-russia-should-be-careful-what-they-wish-for
- https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/87633 - shortlist of possible successors (Mikhail Mishustin sounds, to me and today, like the "smallest evil" on that list)
- https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-09-27/russia-ukraine-post-war-planning/101473304 - the need of "planning for post-war"

- https://news.yahoo.com/putin-claims-wants-resume-negotiations-123310998.html - Putin would be (allegedly) willing to negotiate with Ukraine...
- https://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-ready-negotiations-russia-not-141227088.html ... but Zelenskyy doesn't want to negotiate with Putin.
- https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/oct/04/zelenskiy-hits-back-as-elon-musk-sets-up-twitter-poll-on-annexed-areas - outrageous as it may seem to many (to Ukraine at least), Elon Musk on the "alternative" track (what, you got tired nobody was talking about you for some time, Elon?) It may have some merits, considering the alternatives tabled so far.

I wanted to read it in full, couldn't find it that easy. In any case, from MirageNews (to my surprise, the Wayback machine excludes it). In any case, the over 30 mins of Putin's speech is behind the spoiler (if you want to read what The Grauniad calls Putin’s annexation speech: more angry taxi driver than head of state. Seconded)

*SPOILER* (click to show) *SPOILER* (click to hide)

Full text of Putin’s speech at annexation ceremony

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday presided over a ceremony at the Kremlin to annex four Ukrainian regions partly occupied by his forces. Below is the full text transcript of his speech:

Dear citizens of Russia, citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, residents of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, deputies of the State Duma, and senators of the Russian Federation!

As you know, referendums took place in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. Their results have been summed up, the results are known. People made their choice, a clear choice.

Today we are signing agreements on the admission of the Donetsk People’s Republic, the Luhansk People’s Republic, the Zaporizhia Region and the Kherson Region to Russia. I am sure that the Federal Assembly will support the constitutional laws on the adoption and formation in Russia of four new regions, four new subjects of the Russian Federation, because this is the will of millions of people.

(Applause)

And this, of course, is their right, their inalienable right, which is enshrined in the first article of the UN Charter, which directly speaks of the principle of equal rights and self-determination of peoples.

I repeat: this is an inalienable right of people, it is based on historical unity, in the name of which the generations of our ancestors won, those who from the origins of Ancient Russia for centuries created and defended Russia. Here, in Novorossia, Rumyantsev, Suvorov and Ushakov fought, Catherine II and Potemkin founded new cities. Here our grandfathers and great-grandfathers stood to death during the Great Patriotic War.

We will always remember the heroes of the “Russian spring”, those who did not come to terms with the neo-Nazi coup d’état in Ukraine in 2014, all those who died for the right to speak their native language, preserve their culture, traditions, faith, for the right to live. These are the warriors of Donbass, the martyrs of the “Odessa Khatyn”, the victims of inhuman terrorist attacks staged by the Kyiv regime. These are volunteers and militias, these are civilians, children, women, old people, Russians, Ukrainians, people of various nationalities. This is the real people’s leader of Donetsk Alexander Zakharchenko, these are military commanders Arsen Pavlov and Vladimir Zhoga, Olga Kochura and Alexei Mozgovoy, this is the prosecutor of the Luhansk Republic Sergey Gorenko. This is paratrooper Nurmagomed Gadzhimagomedov and all our soldiers and officers who died the death of the brave during a special military operation. They are heroes. (Applause)

Heroes of Great Russia. And I ask you to honor their memory with a moment of silence.

(Moment of silence.)

Thank you.

Behind the choice of millions of residents in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, in the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions is our common destiny and a thousand-year history. This spiritual connection people passed on to their children and grandchildren. Despite all the trials, they carried through the years love for Russia. And no one can destroy this feeling in us. That is why both the older generations and the youth, those who were born after the tragedy of the collapse of the Soviet Union, voted for our unity, for our common future.

In 1991, in Belovezhskaya Pushcha, without asking the will of ordinary citizens, representatives of the then party elites decided to collapse the USSR, and people suddenly found themselves cut off from their homeland. This tore apart, dismembered our people’s community, turned into a national catastrophe. As once after the revolution the borders of the union republics were cut behind the scenes, so the last leaders of the Soviet Union, contrary to the direct expression of the will of the majority of people in the 1991 referendum, ruined our great country, simply confronted the peoples with a fact.

I admit that they did not even fully understand what they were doing and what consequences this would inevitably lead to in the end. But that doesn’t matter anymore. There is no Soviet Union, the past cannot be returned. Yes, and Russia today does not need it anymore, we are not striving for this. But there is nothing stronger than the determination of millions of people who, by their culture, faith, traditions, language, consider themselves part of Russia, whose ancestors lived in a single state for centuries. There is nothing stronger than the determination of these people to return to their true, historical Fatherland.

For a long eight years, people in the Donbass were subjected to genocide, shelling and blockade, and in Kherson and Zaporozhye they tried to criminally cultivate hatred for Russia, for everything Russian. Now, already during the referendums, the Kyiv regime threatened with violence, death to school teachers, women who worked in election commissions, intimidated millions of people who came to express their will with repressions. But the unbroken people of Donbass, Zaporozhye and Kherson had their say.

I want the Kyiv authorities and their real masters in the West to hear me, so that everyone remembers this: people living in Lugansk and Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporozhye become our citizens forever. (Applause)

We call on the Kyiv regime to immediately cease fire, all hostilities, the war that it unleashed back in 2014, and return to the negotiating table. We are ready for this, it has been said more than once. But we will not discuss the choice of the people in Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, it has been made, Russia will not betray it. (Applause)

And today’s Kiev authorities should treat this free will of the people with respect, and nothing else. This is the only way to peace.

We will protect our land with all the forces and means at our disposal and will do everything to ensure the safe life of our people. This is the great liberation mission of our people.

We will definitely rebuild destroyed cities and towns, housing, schools, hospitals, theaters and museums, restore and develop industrial enterprises, factories, infrastructure, social security, pensions, healthcare and education systems.

Of course, we will work to improve the security level. Together we will make sure that citizens in the new regions feel the support of the entire people of Russia, the entire country, all the republics, all territories and regions of our vast Motherland. (Applause)

Dear friends, colleagues!

Today I want to address the soldiers and officers who are participating in a special military operation, the soldiers of Donbass and Novorossia, those who, after the decree on partial mobilization, join the ranks of the Armed Forces, fulfilling their patriotic duty, who, at the call of their hearts, come to the military registration and enlistment offices. I would like to turn to their parents, wives, and children, to tell them what our people are fighting for, what enemy is opposing us, who is throwing the world into new wars and crises, deriving their bloody profit from this tragedy.

Our compatriots, our brothers and sisters in Ukraine – the native part of our united people – saw with their own eyes what the ruling circles of the so-called West are preparing for all mankind. Here they, in fact, just threw off their masks, showed their true insides.

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the West decided that the world, all of us, would forever have to put up with its dictates. Then, in 1991, the West expected that Russia would not recover from such shocks and would fall apart on its own. Yes, it almost happened – we remember the 90s, the terrible 90s, hungry, cold and hopeless. But Russia resisted, revived, strengthened, again took its rightful place in the world.

At the same time, the West has been looking all this time and continues to look for a new chance to hit us, weaken and destroy Russia, which they have always dreamed of, split our state, pit peoples against each other, doom them to poverty and extinction. They are simply haunted by the fact that there is such a great, huge country in the world with its territory, natural wealth, resources, with a people who do not know how and will never live according to someone else’s orders.

The West is ready to step over everything in order to preserve the neo-colonial system that allows it to parasitize, in fact, to plunder the world at the expense of the power of the dollar and technological dictates, to collect real tribute from humanity, to extract the main source of unearned prosperity, the rent of the hegemon. The maintenance of this rent is their key, genuine and absolutely self-serving motive. That is why total desovereignization is in their interests. Hence their aggression towards independent states, towards traditional values ​​and original cultures, attempts to undermine international and integration processes beyond their control, new world currencies and centers of technological development. It is critical for them that all countries surrender their sovereignty to the United States.

The ruling elites of some states voluntarily agree to do this, voluntarily agree to become vassals; others are bribed, intimidated. And if it doesn’t work out, they destroy entire states, leaving behind humanitarian catastrophes, disasters, ruins, millions of ruined, mangled human destinies, terrorist enclaves, social disaster zones, protectorates, colonies and semi-colonies. They don’t care as long as they get their own benefit.

I want to emphasize once again: it is precisely in greed, in the intention to maintain its unlimited power, that there are the real reasons for the hybrid war that the “collective West” is waging against Russia. They do not wish us freedom, but they want to see us as a colony. They do not want equal cooperation, but robbery. They want to see us not as a free society, but as a crowd of soulless slaves.

For them, a direct threat is our thought and philosophy, and therefore they encroach on our philosophers. Our culture and art are a danger to them, so they are trying to ban them. Our development and prosperity is also a threat to them – competition is growing. They don’t need Russia at all, we need it. (Applause)

I want to remind you that the claims to world domination in the past have been shattered more than once by the courage and steadfastness of our people. Russia will always be Russia. We will continue to defend both our values ​​and our Motherland.

The West is counting on impunity, on getting away with everything. In fact, everything has gotten away with it so far. Agreements in the field of strategic security go to the wastebasket; agreements reached at the highest political level are declared false; firm promises not to expand NATO to the east, as soon as our former leaders bought into them, turned into a dirty deceit; treaties on anti-missile defense and intermediate- and shorter-range missiles have been unilaterally broken under far-fetched pretexts.

All we hear from all sides is that the West stands for order based on rules. Where did they come from? Who even saw these rules? Who agreed? Listen, this is just some kind of nonsense, sheer deception, double or already triple standards! It’s just designed for fools.

Russia is a great millennial power, a country-civilization, and will not live by such rigged, false rules. (Applause)

It is the so-called West that has trampled on the principle of the inviolability of borders, and now, at its own discretion, decides who has the right to self-determination and who does not, who is not worthy of it. Why they decide so, who gave them such a right is not clear. To themselves.

That is why the choice of people in the Crimea, in Sevastopol, in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson causes wild anger in them. This West has no moral right to evaluate it, even to stutter about the freedom of democracy. No, and never was!

Western elites deny not only national sovereignty and international law. Their hegemony has a pronounced character of totalitarianism, despotism and apartheid. They brazenly divide the world into their vassals, into the so-called civilized countries and into all the rest, who, according to the plan of today’s Western racists, should add to the list of barbarians and savages. False labels – “rogue country”, “authoritarian regime” – are already ready, they stigmatize entire peoples and states, and there is nothing new in this. There is nothing new in this: the Western elites are what they were, and have remained so – colonialist. They discriminate, divide peoples into the first and other grades.

We have never accepted and will never accept such political nationalism and racism. And what, if not racism, is Russophobia, which is now spreading all over the world? What, if not racism, is the peremptory conviction of the West that its civilization, neoliberal culture is an indisputable model for the whole world? “He who is not with us is against us.” It even sounds strange.

Even the repentance for their own historical crimes is being shifted by the Western elites to everyone else, demanding both the citizens of their countries and other peoples to confess for what they have nothing to do with at all, for example, for the period of colonial conquests.

It is worth reminding the West that it began its colonial policy back in the Middle Ages, and then followed the global slave trade, the genocide of Indian tribes in America, the plunder of India, Africa, the wars of England and France against China, as a result of which it was forced to open its ports for trade opium. What they did was put entire nations on drugs, purposefully exterminated entire ethnic groups for the sake of land and resources, staged a real hunt for people like animals. This is contrary to the very nature of man, truth, freedom and justice.

And we – we are proud that in the 20th century it was our country that led the anti-colonial movement, which opened up opportunities for many peoples of the world to develop in order to reduce poverty and inequality, to overcome hunger and disease.

I emphasize that one of the reasons for the centuries-old Russophobia, the undisguised malice of these Western elites towards Russia is precisely that we did not allow ourselves to be robbed during the period of colonial conquests, we forced the Europeans to trade for mutual benefit. This was achieved by creating a strong centralized state in Russia, which developed and strengthened itself on the great moral values ​​of Orthodoxy, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism, on Russian culture and the Russian word open to all.

It is known that plans for interventions in Russia were repeatedly made, they tried to use the Time of Troubles at the beginning of the 17th century, and the period of upheavals after 1917 failed. The West nevertheless managed to seize the wealth of Russia at the end of the 20th century, when the state was destroyed. Then we were called both friends and partners, but in fact they treated us like a colony – trillions of dollars were siphoned out of the country under a variety of schemes. We all remember everything, we have not forgotten anything.

And these days, people in Donetsk and Luhansk, in Kherson and Zaporizhia have spoken out in favor of restoring our historical unity. Thank you! (Applause)

Western countries have been repeating for centuries that they bring freedom and democracy to other peoples. Everything is exactly the opposite: instead of democracy – suppression and exploitation; instead of freedom – enslavement and violence. The entire unipolar world order is inherently anti-democratic and not free, it is deceitful and hypocritical through and through.

The United States is the only country in the world to use nuclear weapons twice, destroying the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. By the way, they set a precedent.

Let me also remind you that the United States, together with the British, turned Dresden, Hamburg, Cologne and many other German cities into ruins without any military necessity during World War II. And this was done defiantly, without any, I repeat, military necessity. There was only one goal: just as in the case of the nuclear bombings in Japan, to intimidate both our country and the whole world.

The United States left a terrible mark on the memory of the peoples of Korea and Vietnam with barbaric “carpet” bombing, the use of napalm and chemical weapons.

Until now, they actually occupy Germany, Japan, the Republic of Korea and other countries, and at the same time cynically call them equal allies. Listen, I wonder what kind of alliance is this? The whole world knows that the leaders of these countries are being watched, the first persons of these states are being installed listening devices not only in office, but also in residential premises. This is a real shame. A shame both for those who do this and for those who, like a slave, silently and meekly swallow this rudeness.

They call orders and rude, insulting shouts at the address of their vassals Euro-Atlantic solidarity, the development of biological weapons, experiments on living people, including in Ukraine, noble medical research.

It is with their destructive policy, wars, and robbery that they provoked today’s colossal surge in migration flows. Millions of people suffer deprivation, abuse, die by the thousands, trying to get to the same Europe.

Now they are exporting bread from Ukraine. Where is he going under the pretext of “providing food security for the world’s poorest countries”? Where is it going? Everything goes to the same European countries. There, five percent only went to the poorest countries in the world. Again, another swindle and outright deception.

The American elite, in fact, uses the tragedy of these people to weaken their competitors, to destroy nation states. This also applies to Europe, this also applies to the identity of France, Italy, Spain and other countries with a long history.

Washington is demanding more and more sanctions against Russia, and most European politicians meekly agree with this. They clearly understand that the United States, pushing through the EU’s complete renunciation of Russian energy carriers and other resources, is practically leading to the de-industrialization of Europe, to completely taking over the European market – they understand everything, these elites are European, they understand everything, but prefer to serve the interests of others. This is no longer servility, but a direct betrayal of their peoples. But God bless them, that’s their business.

But sanctions are not enough for the Anglo-Saxons, they switched to sabotage – unbelievable, but true – having organized explosions on the international gas pipelines of the Nord Stream, which run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea, they actually began to destroy the pan-European energy infrastructure. It is clear to everyone who benefits from this. Who benefits, he did, of course.

The US dictate is based on brute force, on fist law. Sometimes beautifully wrapped, sometimes without any wrapper, but the essence is the same – fist law. Hence the deployment and maintenance of hundreds of military bases in all corners of the world, the expansion of NATO, attempts to put together new military alliances such as AUKUS and the like. Active work is also underway to create a military-political link between Washington-Seoul-Tokyo. All those states that possess or seek to possess genuine strategic sovereignty and are capable of challenging Western hegemony are automatically included in the category of enemies.

It is on these principles that the US and NATO military doctrines are built, requiring nothing less than total domination. The Western elites present their neo-colonial plans in the same hypocritical way, even with a pretense of peacefulness, they talk about some kind of containment, and such a crafty word wanders from one strategy to another, but, in fact, means only one thing: undermining any sovereign centers of development.

We have already heard about the containment of Russia, China, Iran. I believe that other countries of Asia, Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, as well as current partners and allies of the United States, are next in line. We know that whatever they don’t like, they also impose sanctions against their allies – first against one bank, then against another; now against one company, now against another. This is the same practice, and will expand. They target everyone, including our closest neighbors – the CIS countries.

At the same time, the West has clearly and has long been wishful thinking. So, starting a sanctions blitzkrieg against Russia, they believed that they would once again be able to build the whole world on their command. But, as it turned out, such a rosy prospect excites far from everyone – perhaps complete political masochists and admirers of other non-traditional forms of international relations. Most states refuse to salute, and choose a reasonable path of cooperation with Russia.

The West clearly did not expect such disobedience from them. They just got used to acting according to a template, to take everything impudently, blackmail, bribery, intimidation, and convince themselves that these methods will work forever, as if they were ossified and frozen in the past.

Such self-confidence is a direct product not only of the notorious concept of one’s own exclusivity – although this, of course, is simply surprising – but also of a real hunger for information in the West. They drowned the truth in an ocean of myths, illusions and fakes, using extremely aggressive propaganda, lying recklessly, like Goebbels. The more incredible the lie, the faster they will believe in it – that’s how they act, according to this principle.

But people cannot be fed with printed dollars and euros. It is impossible to feed with these pieces of paper, and it is impossible to heat a home with the virtual, inflated capitalization of Western social networks. All this is important, what I’m talking about, but what was just said is no less important: you can’t feed anyone with paper money – you need food, and you won’t warm anyone with these inflated capitalizations – you need energy.

Therefore, politicians in the same Europe have to convince their fellow citizens to eat less, wash less often, and dress warmer at home. And those who begin to ask fair questions “actually, why is that so?” – are immediately declared enemies, extremists and radicals. They switch arrows to Russia, they say: here, they say, who is the source of all your troubles. They lie again.

What do I want to highlight in particular? There is every reason to believe that the Western elites are not going to look for constructive ways out of the global food and energy crisis, which arose through their fault, precisely through their fault, as a result of their many years of policy long before our special military operation in Ukraine, in the Donbass. They do not intend to solve the problems of injustice and inequality. There is a fear that they are ready to use other recipes that are familiar to them.

And here it is worth recalling that the West emerged from the contradictions of the early 20th century through the First World War. The profits from World War II allowed the United States to finally overcome the consequences of the Great Depression and become the largest economy in the world, to impose on the planet the power of the dollar as a global reserve currency. And the overdue crisis of the 80s – and in the 80s of the last century the crisis also aggravated – the West largely overcame by appropriating the legacy and resources of the Soviet Union that was collapsing and collapsed in the end. It is a fact.

Now, in order to extricate themselves from yet another tangle of contradictions, they need to break Russia and other states that choose the sovereign path of development at all costs in order to plunder other people’s wealth even more and at this expense close and plug their own holes. If this does not happen, I do not rule out that they will try to completely bring the system to a collapse, on which everything can be blamed, or, God forbid, they will decide to use the well-known formula “the war will write everything off”.

Russia understands its responsibility to the world community and will do everything to bring such hotheads to their senses.

It is clear that the current neo-colonial model is ultimately doomed. But I repeat that her real owners will cling to her to the end. They simply have nothing to offer the world, except for the preservation of the same system of robberies and racketeering.

In fact, they spit on the natural right of billions of people, most of humanity, to freedom and justice, to determine their own future on their own. Now they have completely moved to a radical denial of moral norms, religion, and family.

Let’s answer some very simple questions for ourselves. I now want to return to what I said, I want to address all the citizens of the country – not only to those colleagues who are in the hall – to all the citizens of Russia: do we want to have, here, in our country, in Russia, parent number one, number two, number three instead of mom and dad – have they gone made out there? Do we really want perversions that lead to degradation and extinction to be imposed on children in our schools from the primary grades? To be drummed into them that there are various supposed genders besides women and men, and to be offered a sex change operation? Do we want all this for our country and our children? For us, all this is unacceptable, we have a different future, our own future

I repeat, the dictatorship of the Western elites is directed against all societies, including the peoples of the Western countries themselves. This is a challenge for everyone. Such a complete denial of man, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, the suppression of freedom acquiring the features of a “reverse religion” [the opposite of what the religion is] – outright Satanism. In the Sermon on the Mount, Jesus Christ, denouncing the false prophets, says: By their fruits you shall know them. And these poisonous fruits are already obvious to people – not only in our country, in all countries, including many people in the West itself.

The world has entered a period of revolutionary transformations, they are of a fundamental nature. New development centers are being formed, they represent the majority – the majority! – of the world community and are ready not only to declare their interests, but also to protect them, and see multipolarity as an opportunity to strengthen their sovereignty, which means to gain true freedom, a historical perspective, their right to independent, creative, original development, to a harmonious process.

All over the world, including in Europe and the United States, as I said, we have many like-minded people, and we feel, we see their support. A liberation, anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony is already developing within the most diverse countries and societies. His subjectivity will only grow. It is this force that will determine the future geopolitical reality.

Dear friends!

Today we are fighting for a just and free path, first of all for ourselves, for Russia, for diktat, despotism to remain forever in the past. I am convinced that countries and peoples understand that a policy based on the exclusivity of anyone, on the suppression of other cultures and peoples, is inherently criminal, that we must turn this shameful page. The collapse of Western hegemony that has begun is irreversible. And I repeat again: it will not be the same as before.

The battlefield to which fate and history have called us is the battlefield for our people, for great historical Russia. (Applause)

For a great historical Russia, for future generations, for our children, grandchildren and great-grandchildren. We must protect them from enslavement, from monstrous experiments that are aimed at crippling their minds and souls.

Today we are fighting so that it would never occur to anyone that Russia, our people, our language, our culture can be taken and erased from history. Today, we need the consolidation of the entire society, and such cohesion can only be based on sovereignty, freedom, creation, and justice. Our values ​​are humanity, mercy and compassion.

And I want to end my speech with the words of a true patriot Ivan Alexandrovich Ilyin: “If I consider Russia my Motherland, then this means that I love in Russian, contemplate and think, sing and speak Russian; that I believe in the spiritual strength of the Russian people. His spirit is my spirit; his fate is my fate; his suffering is my grief; its flowering is my joy.”

Behind these words is a great spiritual choice, which for more than a thousand years of Russian statehood was followed by many generations of our ancestors. Today we are making this choice, the citizens of the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics, the residents of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions have made this choice. They made the choice to be with their people, to be with the Motherland, to live its destiny, to win together with it.

Behind us is the truth, behind us is Russia!

(Applause)

Aussie BoM confirms third consecutive La Niña year

Aussies will have crocodiles on their driveway again.
As per usual, the Cauliflornians will likely look at blue dry skies and the Israeli laser satellites will start forest fire unimpeded (that is, assuming there are still forests in California, I haven't checked recently).

"The problem with a triple La Niña is that the ground is very wet already, our rivers are quite high, our creeks are full and our dams are quite full," according to Dr Margaret Cook, environmental historian and lecturer at the University of the Sunshine Coast and researcher at Griffith University.
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But with catchments already sodden, it wont take much for the creeks and rivers to rise again this summer and La Niña is not the only driver out there pushing us towards rain.

We are currently in the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode and negative phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole.

"All these phases, negative Indian Ocean Dipole, positive Southern Annular Mode and La Niña, all tend to promote increased rainfall across parts of Australia in various seasons," Dr Gillett said.

https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/european-forum-alpbach-keynote-speech-high-representativevice-president-josep-borrell-panel_en

But the big crisis is the triple crisis of financial crisis, energy crisis and food crisis. These three elements together will affect millions of people. The World Food Programme says that the index of food is at the highest price - 40% more expensive than two years ago. And for us, that we spend 15% of our budget for food, it is important. But if in your budget food represented 50%, then this 40% increase would be much more difficult. There are tens of millions of people, mainly in Africa, in a very dire situation because they cannot pay the higher prices for electricity – well electricity, some of them, they have never seen a lightbulb – energy, food and the financial crisis, which is blooming.

And there is a competition in the energy market. We, Europeans, can pay higher prices for gas because we can afford it. They cannot afford it and they blame us for taking the gas that otherwise would be used for them. And we take this gas because there is no Russian gas. Everything is connected around the world. But yes, this tsunami of this triple crisis in the next month, you will see, we will have to be very - not just worried - but taking care of what we can do, and we can do a lot of things.

Then, there is China emerging. China is unavoidably the next big power. What China has done in the last 40-50 years, it has never happened before in the history of mankind. It is an extraordinary success from the point of view of getting people out of poverty and developing a country which is now at the forefront of technology, economic growth, and is selling its political model. So, there is a battle of narrative on which model works best in order to satisfy the needs of the people - not only the political needs, not only to be able to choose your government which is quite important, but also from the point of view of economic well-being.

...

Third, what is our response to this troubled world? With China emerging, with a lot of crises everywhere, with this triple crisis looming. I think that Europeans, we should be less naïve to have a better understanding of the world that way it is. Because we believed that trading, creating economic interdependencies, and preaching the rule of law and human rights would be enough. And it has been a lot, but certainly not enough. We live in a world of power politics, we live in a world of the former empires. People who were an empire, centuries ago, want to become an empire again. This is the case of Russia, this is the case of China. We can say something about Turkey also, an old empire who comes and says, “I am a power. I want to play a regional, political important role”. And dependencies have become dangerous. Too much dependency becomes dangerous because you are weak, and because the other can abuse you.

...

Dependency is a weapon. Everything becomes a weapon. The weapons are not just tanks and cannons. The weapons are everything in which you can be affected by a power decision by someone else. So, we have to be more united. Tell, please, to Europeans, young and old: we are too small, we are only 5% of the world population. After the Second World War, we were 20% of the world population. It has been shrinking to 5% of the world population...

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Take your responsibility, push for governments who want to build a united Europe because if we do not unite, we will not survive - as easy as this. 5% of the world population divided in 27 pieces with 27 armies is not fit for the 21st century. You know that altogether we have a double number of soldiers than the US and more than China, but are we considered a military power? We know that all together, we spend in arms four times what Russia spends. I would not say that the 27 European armies all together have the same fire capacity than the Russian army...