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Journal of mcgrew (701)

The Fine Print: The following are owned by whoever posted them. We are not responsible for them in any way.
Saturday July 23, 22
06:04 PM
Business

When I joined the Air Force in 1971 we were in a bad recession. It was really difficult to find work. One of the guys I went in with joined because he was married with a new baby, and no jobs were to be found anywhere. I'd been working at a drive in theater since 1968 when jobs were plentiful.
        There was no inflation, because you ordinarily don't have inflation during a recession; only a fool raises his prices when everybody is out of work. But in 1973 when I was stationed in Thailand, OPEC hit and doubled the price of oil.
        Nixon was being impeached for Watergate as oil and gasoline prices soared. The soaring oil prices caused the cost of all transportation to skyrocket, and the transportation cost is passed on to the consumer.
        Before resigning in disgrace, Nixon instituted wage and price controls, which made inflation worse for working people and ran some businesses into bankruptcy, further depressing the economy but having no or little effect on inflation.
        The only president who never won a single federal election became President. America was lucky that he stayed in office such a short time. Unfortunately, the next president wasn’t any better, making the recession worse with his talk of “malaise”.
        Reagan was elected and made life much worse for most working people when he signed the Republican congress’ bill that slashed the Capital Gains Tax, saying “a rising tide lifts all boats” despite the fact that lowering taxes on the rich isn’t a rising tide, it’s welfare for the wealthy. The tax cuts unleashed an orgy of hostile corporate takeovers that cost some people like me a good part of their wages and cost others their jobs.
        The inflation and recession didn’t subside until Clinton was elected, when oil prices stabilized and we had an economic boom. After his second term, Bush Jr, a failed oil man, was elected, along with his oil man Vice President.
        Gasoline had quadrupled in price in the two decades between 1970 and 1990, rising from a quarter to a dollar per gallon. The oil men more than quadrupled the price again in less than half the time. But this time, it didn’t cause much inflation, but crashed the economy towards the end of his second term. People had been making a choice between buying gasoline to get to work or paying the mortgage and lost their homes.
        Meanwhile, banks; actually, all big business, had gotten greedy enough to shed all semblance of morality and ethics and came up with a foolproof scheme: make mortgages available to people who looked like they could barely afford them, collect mortgage payments as high as rent would be while leaving taxes, repairs, and costs all up to the borrower, then foreclosing at the slightest mistake. That gave them the property they had loaned money for, worth more than they had loaned. It was a racket.
        Bush and Cheney had inherited a balanced budget and a booming economy with low unemployment, and left a historically huge deficit and a crashed economy. Luckily, the next president, unlike the previous, was a patriot who actually wanted the nation to do well, and avoided another Great Depression.
        Eight years later the Democrats nominated the absolutely worst presidential candidate there was, who lost the election to a man historians say was the fourth worst president, who did almost nothing about the world wide pandemic that had raged. States’ governors did his job for him and closed the country down, as leaders world-wide had done.
        Nobody drove much of anywhere, all around the world, and gasoline prices plummeted. Oil companies shut down drilling and refining. Unemployment was sky high because almost all the factories and all the bars and restaurants and most stores closed.
        Vaccines and anti-virals were developed and the pandemic waned. But we had a shortage of everything because nothing had been made for over a year. Shortages cause rising prices. The pandemic bust ended and we’re now in a historic boom, better than anything I’ve seen in my seventy years. For the first time in my life, there’s a labor shortage.
        It’s almost impossible to have a recession during times of no unemployment, but inflation is guaranteed.
        Something very similar happened a century ago, with the “Spanish Flu”, which was far less deadly than Covid. When that pandemic started, World War One was raging.
        Here’s the interesting bit: when the 1920 pandemic ended the “Roaring Twenties” started. Stop talking about recession and start talking about the second Roaring Twenties.
        But in another decade, we’ll probably be in deep economic straits like 1930.

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  • (Score: 4, Insightful) by mcgrew on Saturday July 23 2022, @06:06PM (8 children)

    by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Saturday July 23 2022, @06:06PM (#1262514) Homepage Journal

    Yeah, I was going to post the thing about Artificial Insanity but this is a lot more timely. The media seems to be trying to talk us into a recession. To them, bad news is good news and good news is no news at all.

    --
    Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
    • (Score: 4, Interesting) by DeathMonkey on Monday July 25 2022, @08:24PM (3 children)

      by DeathMonkey (1380) on Monday July 25 2022, @08:24PM (#1262888) Journal

      It's crazy how hard the supposed "left wing media" is trying to throw Biden under the bus for this. Trying to appear "fair and balanced" I guess....

      But the purpose of the press is to inform. Informing would sounds like pointing out the President has very little control over global inflation.

      But instead they're Screaming recession (that hasn't even happened yet) for click bait then pointing out that prices are going up because people apparently have too damn much money, plush any schmo who wants a job can find one in about 2 seconds, pus gas prices are finally going downs. Then with a head line "Recession is here, we're all doomed, what why hasn't Biden done anything about it?!?!?!!!!!!"

      • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @09:00PM (2 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @09:00PM (#1262899)

        Walmart just dropped 8% after cutting forecasts for 2023 citing fuel price increases. Ending Keystone XL and denying drilling permits increases fuel prices. 2 quarters without growth is a recession. The "vaccine" doesn't stop you catching or transmitting COVID. Trans women are men.

        Any other facts I can help you or the Biden regime with today?

        • (Score: 2, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @04:20AM

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @04:20AM (#1262941)

          Ah yes, if the super rich don't get richer at the expense of everyone else and the planet, then all bad things are the fault of people who don't like being exploited and poisoned.

          Anything else I can help your lead addled brain with?

        • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Tuesday July 26 2022, @05:50PM

          by DeathMonkey (1380) on Tuesday July 26 2022, @05:50PM (#1263044) Journal

          Fuel prices have been dropping for over two months now. [13newsnow.com] Your talking points need an update.

    • (Score: 2) by hendrikboom on Wednesday July 27 2022, @03:04PM (3 children)

      by hendrikboom (1125) on Wednesday July 27 2022, @03:04PM (#1263228) Homepage Journal

      "media" is plural.

  • (Score: -1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 23 2022, @08:23PM (11 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 23 2022, @08:23PM (#1262536)

    The very fact that "The Pandemic" in Europe got switched off by a single executive decision, is proof enough that COVID is nothing but a pretext, while the Cretins in Power are the real deadly pandemic.
    Historical examples mean nothing, because never before had we been governed by uncontrolled hereditary bureaucrats running amok.
    People who lost the very concept of accountability for their decisions, are playing with the wheel. Woe to our Titanic.

    • (Score: 5, Touché) by janrinok on Sunday July 24 2022, @05:49PM (10 children)

      by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Sunday July 24 2022, @05:49PM (#1262659) Journal

      What do you mean 'it was switched off'? I am in France. I had my latest booster shot 2 days ago. The figures here are rising rapidly again with hospitals slowly seeing an increase in patients. (The vaccinations might not stop somebody catching Covid, but they significantly reduce the number of serious cases that require hospitalisation). My BiL and his wife in Toulouse have both got Covid. We just put on our masks, isolate and get on with it and don't make a big song and dance like some others do. Covid isn't going away any time soon.

      Get your head out of that bucket of sand you are carrying around with you.

      • (Score: -1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @08:04PM (9 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @08:04PM (#1262675)

        I mean the "figures" going right off the first pages when February 24th hit, the "measures" hastily rolled down to near nothing in the next month, then to nothing at all in the month after that, and Nothing Happening despite all that.
        The very same "figures" that were blasted at people as "The Horror!!!11" a month before, to justify all kinds of crazy actions, suddenly became easy for all "concerned" to ignore outright.

        The vaccinations might not stop somebody catching Covid, but they significantly reduce the number of serious cases that require hospitalisation)

        From the statistics we have right here, right now, the "significantly" is by 20% at best. Totally does not outweigh the risk of serious adverse effects from the vaccine.

        Covid isn't going away any time soon.

        Precisely. But the economy IS going away sometime soon, and in large part because of the destruction done using it as a pretext.

        The present situation with the virus and the economy, is precisely what everyone with a brain had been predicting right then in the spring of 2020. And the ONLY tangible result of the government intervention is some $trillions stolen from our pockets and given to the Big Pharma and the Big Data.

        • (Score: 5, Interesting) by janrinok on Sunday July 24 2022, @10:22PM (8 children)

          by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Sunday July 24 2022, @10:22PM (#1262698) Journal

          From the statistics we have right here,

          Which statistics? Which February 24th? This year, last year?

          You are making a lot of noise, but you have produced nothing to support your claims.

          You can blame whatever you wish, but this is a global situation. If you want to convince me that Covid doesn't exist then you will have to go a bit further to hide the number of dead that have been buried in this one country alone who all died as a result of it.

          • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @01:18AM (5 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @01:18AM (#1262709)

            As to "which statistics", the official one published daily in my country.
            As to "which February", are you for real, dude? Ukraine too far from your cave, for you to notice the shooting war?
            As to "supporting my claim", you are welcome to any newsfeed archive. Cannot help to work around your blinkers, but that is life.
            As to "convincing you", I cannot care less. The reality will do the work sooner or later.
            And as to "the number of dead", looking at our official data, here it had been no different in 2020 from 2019, which in itself casts some doubt on your "global situation". And since then, in 2021-2022, full 50% of the excess mortality is people over 80, another 36% are between 60 and 80, so only 14% are below 60. I doubt those percentages are much different around you.
            Instead of telling the truth and protecting those who are vulnerable, the rich and powerful started with torturing the entire society with lockdowns, and continued with pushing the vaccines on the younger generations. If that makes sense to you, I envy your koolaid source.

            Viruses have existed around us since forever. But stupidity, craziness, and greed are the much greater killers.

            • (Score: 3, Insightful) by janrinok on Monday July 25 2022, @05:23AM

              by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @05:23AM (#1262735) Journal

              As to "which statistics", the official one published daily in my country.

              AC, your country is unspecified. Either cite your statistics or stop arguing a point you cannot prove.

              As to "which February", are you for real, dude? Ukraine too far from your cave, for you to notice the shooting war?

              The invasion of Ukraine DID switch much of the popular reporting to covering that subject - as it should. That does not mean that the Covid virus disappeared. Most of Europe had already established a system for combatting the virus (including vaccinations) and it just continued to operate as before without all the publicity. What your country did - well we don't know your country do we?

              As to "supporting my claim", you are welcome to any newsfeed archive. Cannot help to work around your blinkers, but that is life.

              I can find plenty of reporting regarding both the war in Ukraine and the continuing efforts to combat Covid in my sources of information. If you cannot, then change your sources.

              As to "convincing you", I cannot care less. The reality will do the work sooner or later.

              So, if you are not trying to join the conversation by introducing relevant facts to the topics under discussion, I will assume that you are just here to make a noise. OK, you have done that. You can stop now.

              And as to "the number of dead", looking at our official data, here it had been no different in 2020 from 2019, which in itself casts some doubt on your "global situation". And since then, in 2021-2022, full 50% of the excess mortality is people over 80, another 36% are between 60 and 80, so only 14% are below 60. I doubt those percentages are much different around you.

              There may be similar numbers dying (I disagree, but no matter), but what they were and are dying of is most certainly different in my country and those around it. And that seriously degraded the health care system all across Europe (excluding your unspecified country, apparently). As a result, people were not being treated for many conditions that they would have been treated for as a matter of routine before Covid. We will be seeing the fallout from this for many years to come. Death isn't the only result from Covid. Many people are suffering from long term effects of the disease or have other major heath issues that simply have not received the treatment that they should have received. Their quality of life and possibly life expectancy are severely degraded. You seem to be suggesting that situation is OK because, well, they are not dead?

            • (Score: 4, Touché) by khallow on Monday July 25 2022, @12:53PM

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @12:53PM (#1262772) Journal
              Janrinok got this one nailed. You don't present a single serious argument. It's all vacuous handwaving. If we didn't have the context of the thread, there would be almost no evidence that you were talking about covid (aside from some mumbling about excess mortality in the "global situation").

              Viruses have existed around us since forever. But stupidity, craziness, and greed are the much greater killers.

              I suggest you stop killing people then with stupid posts.

            • (Score: 5, Funny) by DeathMonkey on Monday July 25 2022, @08:27PM (2 children)

              by DeathMonkey (1380) on Monday July 25 2022, @08:27PM (#1262889) Journal

              You should refuse to provide citations four or five more times! It totally makes it look like your'e not pulling numbers strait outta your ass!

              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @02:14PM (1 child)

                by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @02:14PM (#1262991)

                Yeah I can throw in an anecdote too - parents of someone I know run a florist shop. Their business wasn't badly affected by the pandemic.

                Why? Because they sold more funeral wreaths...

                That can only be because shady organizations are buying more funeral wreaths in order to make it look like covid-19 is killing people... /s

                I'm a bit of a conspiracy nut myself - like I'm a bit suspicious of the official accounts of the US 9/11 incidents. But the covid-19 stuff? Definitely not "just another flu". I don't actually know anyone who died from flu in the decades I've been alive whereas in the past 2 years people I personally know have died of covid-19.

                Anyway back to the topic. The USA increasing interest rates and increasing the value of the USD has increased costs for many other countries whose currencies are now relatively weaker than the USD. So they have something similar to inflation for the prices of lots of stuff. Of course if they have companies that sell stuff priced in USD then those companies may benefit. But the poor in those countries typically won't benefit.

                p.s. Time for some 20s music...
                https://youtu.be/agilNaytGRI [youtu.be] (for the alcoholics)
                https://youtu.be/u2uHgIqc5jo [youtu.be]
                https://youtu.be/zM7JyRWWEj0 [youtu.be]
                https://youtu.be/LkZUSGl3nMw [youtu.be]

                • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 29 2022, @01:49AM

                  by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 29 2022, @01:49AM (#1263538)

                  Funny how you trump supporters (yes I assumed your crazy level, deal with it snowflake) roll out these theories while ignoring all the grifting the trumpers did at the expense of American lives.

          • (Score: 3, Interesting) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:30AM (1 child)

            by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:30AM (#1263103) Homepage Journal

            Not only the published number of dead that the conspiracy theorists refuse to believe, but several people I know personally who were hospitalized, including my 35 year old daughter whom it nearly blinded in one eye.

            --
            Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 07 2022, @06:23PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Friday October 07 2022, @06:23PM (#1275451)
              I know a florist business that did OK during the height of the pandemic. Why? They were selling more funeral wreaths and similar.

              Ask old people and many will have more friends who have died of covid in the past few years than flu in the past few decades.

              It's "Just another flu" only to morons.
  • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 23 2022, @08:40PM (2 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 23 2022, @08:40PM (#1262541)

    There's much to disagree with here but the conclusion is most bewildering. The "Swinging '20s" was fueled by US industrial dominance following the end of the war. The economy cannot grow without energy input and transitioning from fossil fuels will remain hyperinflationary - bet your bottom Rentendollar on it!

    • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:40AM (1 child)

      by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:40AM (#1263104) Homepage Journal

      The "swinging twenties"? Huh? Kid, read a history book some time, Here's [virginia.edu] a college textbook for you. It was called the ROARING twenties (even though Grandma McGrew, who was 17 in 1920, said it only roared for the rich).

      It was the "swinging sixties". I lived through that history.

      --
      Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @06:10PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @06:10PM (#1263459)

        Now we know you won't be dancing the Swinging Charleston any time soon. [google.com] To make sure, we're going to redefine Swing as not-Swing, as not emerging in the late '20s and my reference not being a jazz joke. Just like the Bidenflation regime and you redefine "recession". Happy?

  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday July 23 2022, @11:46PM (6 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday July 23 2022, @11:46PM (#1262565) Journal

    The inflation and recession didn’t subside until Clinton was elected

    In 1983 [usinflationcalculator.com] (lowest inflation since 1972 and you don't see anything much lower until before 1967)?

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @12:32AM (5 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @12:32AM (#1262569)

      ^ Khallow is based; he has lollypop, stonks and (dating profiles notwithstanding) is not practicing the Charleston. Now, about that V shaped recovery ...

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday July 24 2022, @12:40AM (4 children)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday July 24 2022, @12:40AM (#1262570) Journal

        Now, about that V shaped recovery ...

        Look at this chart [ycharts.com] and pick the five year span. You'll see that V-shaped recession from covid. Keep in mind that GDP is traditionally how recessions are measured. I won't claim that we're not seeing serious economic problems now, but I think that's more due to politics than actual problems like covid.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @02:51AM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @02:51AM (#1262577)

          Yeah, we never picked that discussion up but our infamous Ukraine debate more than made up for it :-o

          So, somehow everything held together through early COVID. As you admitted back then, a supply side recession was possible. That was what I expected but there was a near-term rebound. What we're seeing now is the effects of our reaction to COVID. If the response to the 2008 financial crash was controlled collapse, what we're seeing now is deliberate demolition. To paraphrase what one of the Warburg's said about the Weimar economy, it was inflation (printing) or revolution. We know how that story ended, the difference this time is that the people making those same mistakes and creating those same preconditions are screaming "fascist" at critics as they do so. The TDS in this journal being a prime example.

          China is in serious trouble and Trump's sanctions delivered a seismic body blow. Dem normies will never understand how a boorish cretin like Trump could have a pre-emptive policy while their favored technocrats are left with shit on their face. Here we are with De-Santis rallying against Chinese purchase of US farmland before their currency collapses while Biden sells them strategic oil reserves. Struggling to see Trump lagging behind Wilson, Carter, Buchanan and Biden (in that order - all Democrats). Welcome McGrew to explain but doubt that's happening.

          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday July 24 2022, @04:50AM

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday July 24 2022, @04:50AM (#1262587) Journal

            As you admitted back then, a supply side recession was possible.

            Let's review what I wrote [soylentnews.org]:

            It does look quite v-shaped [statista.com] though. I grant that the enormous political spending of the past year may turn this into a double dip recession and/or create long term economic stagnation.

            So the enormous political spending hasn't double dipped yet in over a year. Looks good for my argument. Keep in mind this was also a continuation of a 2020 argument where I prophesied [soylentnews.org] that v-shaped recession in the first place.

            Why will elements of the global supply chain choose to self-destruct rather than figure out safe ways to ship stuff? I heard it claimed that supply- side economic disruptions are v-shaped. The disruption is quickly surmounted as logistics figures out how to route around the damage.

            While there will be some long term impairment from a one or more year pandemic, much of the necessary infrastructure changes to the global supply chains can be figured out in a much shorter time. That leads me to the opinion that a recession from the coronavirus will be of similar v-shape unless it triggers a substantial secondary vulnerability, say such as a collapse in a major country's banking industry.

            Elsewhere, in that discussion, I made the following observation [soylentnews.org]:

            Having been on the internet for thirty years, I'm quite familiar with the doomsday pattern. This stuff comes out every recession and every novel disease outbreak. Make a guess how many times it's been right so far?

            Finally, I will continue to pay attention to comparable history like the 1918 influenza pandemic and global recessions because this is similar, despite the protests to the contrary.

            Whose track record is better?

        • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:45AM (1 child)

          by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:45AM (#1263105) Homepage Journal

          The economic problems are world-wide. Inflation is hitting a lot of countries harder than us, take Sri Lanka for example. A dollar is worth a whole Euro for the first time since... well, a long time ago. Domestic politics have nothing to do with it at all.

          --
          Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 02 2022, @11:23AM

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 02 2022, @11:23AM (#1264470) Journal

            Inflation is hitting a lot of countries harder than us, take Sri Lanka for example.

            Sri Lanka blew up their economy. Of course, inflation is hitting them harder. It has nothing to do with US policies domestic or foreign, but it has everything to do with Sri Lanka's amazingly bad domestic policy.

            A dollar is worth a whole Euro for the first time since... well, a long time ago. Domestic politics have nothing to do with it at all.

            Sorry, that's nonsense. For example, the US is rapidly approach Greek levels of public indebtedness with massive excess spending in the trillions of dollars that doesn't do anything except distribute borrowed money. Of course, there's inflation.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @06:35PM (20 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 24 2022, @06:35PM (#1262666)

    The events from 1971 to 1973 were caused by the switch from the gold standard to the petrodollar. The fuel "crisis" was a result of keeping new inventory from being mixed with old inventory, which had to be gotten rid of first. There was no "embargo", it is normal practice. But we had to create a story to cover the rising prices that people would easily believe by appealing to their biases

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday July 25 2022, @04:29AM (16 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @04:29AM (#1262729) Journal
      In other words, explaining a power shift from the Western world to OPEC via monetary bogeymen.

      The fuel "crisis" was a result of keeping new inventory from being mixed with old inventory

      I can see it now. The old oil has gold cooties. Terrible accounting things would happen if it were to ever mix with new oil.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @06:02AM (15 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @06:02AM (#1262736)

        There was no "power shift". There is no "Western World" vs. OPEC

        And yes, for accounting and tax purposes, inventory has to be kept separate

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday July 25 2022, @12:30PM (14 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @12:30PM (#1262771) Journal

          There was no "power shift". There is no "Western World" vs. OPEC

          And yet it happened. There's something wrong with the narrative.

          And yes, for accounting and tax purposes, inventory has to be kept separate

          Except, of course, when it doesn't.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @08:39PM (13 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @08:39PM (#1262894)

            You're just being silly as usual. Where is the power going to shift to? We're all the same here. There is no "west". It's just the natural ebb and flow of money and product around the world... but feel free to carry on with your little fairy tales that make you feel most comfortable

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday July 25 2022, @09:19PM (12 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @09:19PM (#1262904) Journal

              Where is the power going to shift to?

              Wrong tense. The power shifted from Western states and oil companies to state actors in the Middle East back in the 1970s.

              There is no "west".

              Europe and US/Canada for starters as counterexamples.

              • (Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @03:37AM (11 children)

                by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @03:37AM (#1262940)

                The power shifted from Western states and oil companies to state actors in the Middle East back in the 1970s.

                Oh please! It did not.. Whose military occupies the majority of the middle east? And the money never went anywhere either. It's the petrodollar. The oil companies are more powerful than ever. Stop playing so dumb, it's unbecoming

                • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:44AM (10 children)

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:44AM (#1262970) Journal

                  Whose military occupies the majority of the middle east?

                  Nobody's. I sense another problem rearing up for the narrative.

                  And the money never went anywhere either. It's the petrodollar.

                  The money is nothing. It's the oil that matters. And oil changed ownership.

                  The oil companies are more powerful than ever.

                  Well, wrong. But you seem to be on a bender so why stop there?

                  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @06:19PM (9 children)

                    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @06:19PM (#1263054)

                    Eh, as I said, you're just being your regular obtuse self. Perfectly natural for a wannabe

                    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:22AM (8 children)

                      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:22AM (#1263114) Journal
                      What have you said that's not worth being obtuse about? When I was in college these conspiracy theories were so cool. Now though, I learned that there's more to reality than that.
                      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @10:01PM (7 children)

                        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @10:01PM (#1263338)

                        The conspiracy strawmen are in your head, this is just business

                        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday July 30 2022, @11:17AM (5 children)

                          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday July 30 2022, @11:17AM (#1263889) Journal
                          Let's review the claims that were made:

                          The events from 1971 to 1973 were caused by the switch from the gold standard to the petrodollar. The fuel "crisis" was a result of keeping new inventory from being mixed with old inventory, which had to be gotten rid of first. There was no "embargo", it is normal practice. But we had to create a story to cover the rising prices that people would easily believe by appealing to their biases

                          This ignores that the 1973 oil crisis was a result of OPEC flexing its muscles. A cartel gets involved and prices rise - it's not rocket science. Further I notice also that no AC in this thread has yet mentioned a reason for why there would be an old/new divide in oil inventory. My take is that this is due to some imaginary woo that the author above couldn't express in words.

                          Another missing factor from this broken narrative is that the oil companies which are supposed to have such control over oil, would have had such control over oil back even in the 1950s. Why didn't they raise prices back in 1950? Did they have trouble finding the magic button that raises price of oil?

                          I think the reality here is that western governments wanted low oil prices because that makes economies go zoom. And OPEC wanted high prices because that meant more for OPEC. OPEC persevered.

                          Moving on:

                          Whose military occupies the majority of the middle east? And the money never went anywhere either. It's the petrodollar.

                          Again, nobody's military occupies the majority of the Middle East. I gather this was a failed insinuation that somehow the US was controlling everything while ignoring reality. And notice the name dropping of the "petrodollar" with no further discussion. Given that it's just not that hard to switch to other currencies (say because someone's currency is presently inflating at 9% at year), I don't see the power that was implied here. Sure, it's an economic advantage, but far less powerful than you imply.

                          Moving on:

                          There is no "west".

                          Counterexamples: Europe and US/Canada.

                          Sorry, but this illustrates some of the cluelessness that results when one embraces narratives without consideration of reality.

                          • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Monday August 01 2022, @06:10PM (4 children)

                            by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Monday August 01 2022, @06:10PM (#1264296) Homepage Journal

                            Another missing factor from this broken narrative is that the oil companies which are supposed to have such control over oil, would have had such control over oil back even in the 1950s.

                            As Robert Reich points out in Saving Capitalism, before the Reagan administration, CEOs felt beholden to stockholders, employees, and the area they were sited in. The Capital Gains Tax cut changed that by unleashing an orgy of hostile takeovers, and CEOs could no longer be for anyone but stockholders. So in the '50s, when CEOs earned 40 times as much as the lowest paid worker, as opposed to 400 times today, they could actually be patriotic. Patriotism is no longer allowed in business, except as a dishonest sales tool.

                            That tax cut was the line when wages stopped rising with the GDP, there's an interesting graph in Reich's book.

                            --
                            Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
                            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday August 01 2022, @07:26PM (3 children)

                              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 01 2022, @07:26PM (#1264330) Journal

                              That tax cut was the line when wages stopped rising with the GDP

                              Wages and benefits [heritage.org] continued to rise with productivity through to 2000. I think we'll have to look elsewhere for the explanation.

                              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 02 2022, @11:15AM

                                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 02 2022, @11:15AM (#1264468) Journal
                                And even though the rise slows a bit, wages and benefits continued to rise after 2000 as well. That narrative is really well off the rails.
                              • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Saturday August 06 2022, @03:19PM (1 child)

                                by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Saturday August 06 2022, @03:19PM (#1265264) Homepage Journal

                                Look at a graph. You don't have Google? here's the first one that comes up. [stlouisfed.org]second result [epi.org], this one matches the Reich book. Why the willful blindness? Just trolling?

                                --
                                Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
                                • (Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 07 2022, @12:25AM

                                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 07 2022, @12:25AM (#1265361) Journal
                                  Well, I did look at a graph - the graph in my link. The rest of that stuff plays games by ignoring benefits, particularly health insurance. That isn't free in a country with enormous health care costs.

                                  And let's think about what these graphs really tell us. They don't tell us that somehow CEOs grew more mean spirited. But rather that health care costs went up massively. That's your wage-vs-productivity effect almost completely. My bet is that the rest of it is labor competition with the developing world after the year 2000, particularly China.
                        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 02 2022, @11:25AM

                          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 02 2022, @11:25AM (#1264472) Journal
                          And we have yet to hear details of the accounting needs that required a division of oil into old and new inventory. For that matter, you have yet to state what old and new inventory would have been in the first place.
    • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:50AM (2 children)

      by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @12:50AM (#1263106) Homepage Journal

      You're talking nonsense about history I lived through. I was in the Air Force stationed in Thailand when the Arab Oil Embargo hit in 1974. OPEC stopped shipping oil. That's not an embargo? I don't know where you're learning your "history" from, kid, (Tucker Carlson, maybe?) but it's flat wrong, incorrect, complete bullshit that has no relation to reality whatever.

      --
      Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @05:21AM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @05:21AM (#1263154)

        OPEC stopped shipping oil.

        Yes, until the old inventory, based on old currency, was emptied out. Once the petrodollar was established the flow resumed. We are OPEC, just like the Saudis. You are expressing oil company propaganda, in denial of the symbiosis in the business, and being all emotional about it. We stood by the Saudis in shutting down the flow, it was strictly business.

        • (Score: 2, Informative) by khallow on Monday August 01 2022, @07:27PM

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 01 2022, @07:27PM (#1264332) Journal

          We are OPEC, just like the Saudis.

          Patently false - different people, leadership, and interests.

  • (Score: 4, Informative) by BK on Sunday July 24 2022, @09:30PM (1 child)

    by BK (4868) on Sunday July 24 2022, @09:30PM (#1262688)

    Reagan was elected and made life much worse for most working people when he signed the Republican congress’ bill that slashed the Capital Gains Tax...

    I'm not going to defend or condemn the captial gains tax cut, but in the 97th Congress [wikipedia.org], the House of Representatives was run by the Democratic Party. Today we would call the ERTA [wikipedia.org] "Bi-partisan".

    --
    ...but you HAVE heard of me.
    • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:01AM

      by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:01AM (#1263107) Homepage Journal

      Excellent point, congress passed it, but HE was the one who pushed it through and he took credit for it. I'll never forget his "a rising tide lifts all boats" when cutting taxes on the super rich is in no way a rising tide, That tax cut crippled middle class America. As Robert Reich points out in his book Saving Capitalism, before then, CEOs felt obligated to shareholders, employees, and the area where they were sited, but during Reagan's administration, they began to only feel obligated to the shareholders.

      I believe it was that tax. I worked for Disney and saw the results, the first was when some people tried to buy Disney and carve it up into chunks. Our pay was cut 30% to fight the takeover.

      As Reich points out with charts, that's when pay stopped matching productivity. IMO, Reagan was a soulless monster who greatly damaged our nation.

      --
      Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @04:23AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @04:23AM (#1262728)

    anti-virals were developed

    By antivirals you meant protease inhibitors, and anyone with half a brain was done with the pandemic as soon as they started taking ivermectin, the smart ones got a several year supply of tablets because they didnt trust big-pharma to not find a way to ban it until they could make new patents and classes of drugs.

    Remdesivir was pretty cool because it was better than HCQ but not as safe and $520/dose rather than $0.10/dose. WHO studies that have since been deleted shows ivermectin as a much stronger protease inhibitor than HCQ (roughly three times) with Remdisivir falling somewhere between the two. Budesinide was also found to have protease inhibition effects but I don't know where in the range it fell. Paxlovid is very interesting and is more powerful than any of the other drugs tested. Paxlovid is $530 a treatment but is currently "free" due to being paid for by tax dollars. It appears to be generally well tolerated, and will be a very important drug moving forward due to the importance of protease inhibition with diseases like HIV/AIDS.

    Best way to stay healthy through the pandemic would have been to take HCQ safely and profillacticly like millions of other humans do a year, switch to ivermectin when it was realized to be better in every situation (unless in an area where it was banned or if you are already taking HCQ for arthritis), get vaccinated with whichever brand you like the most when they finally arrive, then continue to take HCQ or IVM in the lower daily dose until the whole thing ends. At this point if you caught it and you are poor you will be fine increasing your IVM dose to recommended levels and is an anti-inflamatory so works against both stages. HCQ is only effective as a profilactic and a negative in the inflammatory stage. Ideally catching it at this point, if in a rich country, should be done with Paxlovid.

    Unfortunately we decided to deride people who looked for a treatment until just now when the church of profit decide we can be treated with more than "go home and take an aspirin, if you can't breath feel free to die". The vaccines were necessary and important, new drugs being invented was necessary and important, but you fools drank the coolade and killed hundreds of thousands in your worship of capitalism. Face your own cognitive dissonance and realize your mistake, and do better next time.

    This isn't a damn "hindsight is 20/20". We knew from day 1 that SARS enters through ACE2 receptors, and everyone ignored drugs that block those receptors. We knew quickly after that protease inhibitors worked due to the successful use of AIDS medicine in China. We saw early on that people with arthritis were not getting infected (why not, what else are they taking?). Patients with asthma were under represented. What's the common thread? ACE2 suppression, protease inhibition, and anti-inflamation.

  • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @06:44AM (9 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @06:44AM (#1262740)

    I won't post unless I can post as a true AC. And it seems that janrinok has decided to go all logged-in users only, with the predicted decline in comments, and quality of comments, even while keeping out those nasty Disruptive ACs.

    And this is why I appreciate McGrew. Not only does he have a historical perspective, but he manages to lay it out in a way that subtly makes the point and defects all the BS, even Khallow. Now if only SN could return to its original vision, and support free speech, we could appreciate McGrew even more!

    • (Score: 5, Touché) by janrinok on Monday July 25 2022, @07:38AM (8 children)

      by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @07:38AM (#1262742) Journal

      I won't post unless I can post as a true AC

      You are speaking now - you have free speech. You are posting now as "a true AC". You have accounts on the main site, so don't pretend that you are leaving or are in some way limited. You are not.

      "janrinok" hasn't decided anything - the community gave their views and once the staff and board have approved or rejected the proposals then we can move forward. What you don't like is that the community are not supporting you.

      • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @08:59AM (7 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @08:59AM (#1262957)

        Just before janrinok banned my latest account, he said this:

        Go on, we will let you use this name providing you do not disclose who you are, which former accounts you have held and you follow the rules.

        Not going to disclose who I am, or what former accounts I held, but I don't think it requires an excess of intelligence to figure such things out. And, I followed the rules, and my new account was banned, anyway. Must have pissed the janrinok off, by not following his "rules", which I have never been given a copy of. SoylentNews' loss.

        • (Score: 2) by janrinok on Tuesday July 26 2022, @09:34AM (6 children)

          by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @09:34AM (#1262960) Journal

          It might have been your 'latest' (er, no) but it wasn't your last account. Why don't you just tell the truth?

          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:55AM

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:55AM (#1262974) Journal
            Sounds like he just can't stop gaslighting. Probably psychological given how long and obsessively it's been going on.
          • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:03AM (4 children)

            by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:03AM (#1263108) Homepage Journal

            Why don't you just tell the truth?

            Do trolls ever?

            --
            Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
            • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @07:02PM (3 children)

              by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @07:02PM (#1263310)

              The best trolling is just to tell the truth.

              Due to excessive bad posting from this IP or Subnet, anonymous comment posting has temporarily been disabled. You can still login to post. However, if bad posting continues from your IP or Subnet that privilege could be revoked as well. If it's you, consider this a chance to sit in the timeout corner or login and improve your posting. If it's someone else, this is a chance to hunt them down. If you think this is unfair, please email admin@soylentnews.org with your MD5'd IPID and SubnetID, which are "1", and "2".

              From Russia, with love.

              • (Score: 2) by janrinok on Thursday July 28 2022, @06:55AM (2 children)

                by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Thursday July 28 2022, @06:55AM (#1263389) Journal

                If you would sort out your proxies/vpns you wouldn't have these problems. Why should your TOR connections be different from everyone else's?

                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @08:47AM (1 child)

                  by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @08:47AM (#1263396)

                  Why should your TOR connections be different from everyone else's?

                  Interesting question! Perhaps it is because I am not one person? Perhaps I am not that other person who haunts you in your dreams, disturbs every waking hour, and waits for you in IRC, WITH A DIFFERENT NAME EVERY TIME!

                  I know all this must be difficult for you. Maybe if you stopped trying to sort out all the IP hashes, and got back to things like, um, editing? The comment is right, that last title about the bacteria was reprehensible.

                  • (Score: 3, Informative) by janrinok on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:31AM

                    by janrinok (52) Subscriber Badge on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:31AM (#1263400) Journal

                    I am not looking at hashes. That is not what I meant. Many of your connections have, well, different characteristics. They are triggering something that other connections are not, and whatever it is, it is also being detected by DNBLs.

                    Please don't change it! - it is helping us so much :-)

  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by cmdrklarg on Monday July 25 2022, @07:03PM (15 children)

    by cmdrklarg (5048) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @07:03PM (#1262862)

    Eight years later the Democrats nominated the absolutely worst presidential candidate there was, who lost the election to a man historians say was the fourth worst president, who did almost nothing about the world wide pandemic that had raged.

    No, Republicans nominated the absolutely worst presidential candidate there was, who managed to squeak out an electoral college victory by the skin of his teeth. Democrats only nominated the 2nd worst.

    My last two votes for POTUS should not be considered to be unwavering support for HRC and Biden. My vote for HRC was mainly to attempt to stop the GOP from stealing Obama's SCOTUS pick. Secondary for HRC and primary for Biden was "anything but tRump".

    Now for '24 I should expect to see tRump run again, but get beat in the primaries by DeSantis. I have a suspicion that Biden won't run again, and the Democrats will let Harris have a go at it. I'm not highly enthused about Harris myself, but as before I will vote against the greater evil (IMO, YMMV).

    --
    Answer now is don't give in; aim for a new tomorrow.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @08:51PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @08:51PM (#1262898)

      as before I will vote against the greater evil

      What, by voting for its accomplice??

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @04:30AM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @04:30AM (#1262945)

        Beats voting for the leader, but you do you if you don't mind people thinking you're stupid.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @06:16PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @06:16PM (#1263053)

          Leaders are nothing without followers. The followers are the dangerous ones, the foot soldiers that do the dirty work. It's just more conveniently expedient to blame the leaders. Besides, this isn't one group "leading" another. They are equal partners, their relationship is symbiotic, not adversarial.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday July 25 2022, @09:21PM (10 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday July 25 2022, @09:21PM (#1262906) Journal

      My last two votes for POTUS should not be considered to be unwavering support for HRC and Biden.

      Merely a display of foolishness. Time to vote third party.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @11:14PM (5 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 25 2022, @11:14PM (#1262921)

        Liz Cheney?

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 26 2022, @01:41AM (4 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @01:41AM (#1262933) Journal
          Seriously, this "vote for the lesser evil" thing has resulted in a lot of crap in recent decades - basically since Bill Clinton. And it's not getting better. Trump got elected in the first place because both major parties couldn't run anyone better. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get elected again in 2024 because of the same thing.
          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @04:34AM (2 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 26 2022, @04:34AM (#1262946)

            If conservatives still don't see that trump is hitler 2.0 then there is no hope and we're doomed to some form of violence in the next 50 years. The long timeframe is simply allowing for decades of fascist rule because it takes s o m e humans a looong time to recognize fascist assholes.

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:53AM (1 child)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:53AM (#1262972) Journal

              If conservatives still don't see that trump is hitler 2.0 then there is no hope and we're doomed to some form of violence in the next 50 years.

              They don't so see. Welcome to different points of view. Here's your cheap, plastic kaleidoscope. I find it interesting how people just demand I spontaneously adhere to their delusions, drama, and emotional outbreaks. Sorry, not happening.

              • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:27PM

                by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:27PM (#1263495)

                We know, you live in alt-reality, only your subconscious was a little surprised.

          • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:11AM

            by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:11AM (#1263111) Homepage Journal

            You have two choices: vote for the best of the candidates from the four parties, none of which would be anybody's first choice and none of whom may be competent, or stay home. Write in? Waste of time.

            Yes, the system sucks, but it's the best there is. Have better ideas? Contact your representatives and the media.

            --
            Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
      • (Score: 3, Interesting) by cmdrklarg on Tuesday July 26 2022, @06:38PM (3 children)

        by cmdrklarg (5048) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @06:38PM (#1263058)

        Merely a display of foolishness. Time to vote third party.

        Perhaps, but voting 3rd party in our current system is in effect a vote for the greater evil, as your vote will accomplish nothing save reduce the lesser evil's totals. My vote for the lesser evil at least improves the odds that the greater evil doesn't win.

        If we somehow adopt Ranked Choice Voting people could put their chosen 3rd party candidate as their 1st choice, then the lesser evil 2nd. From what I've read RCV is making some headway into some elections around the country, so there's an inkling of hope for something better in the future.

        --
        Answer now is don't give in; aim for a new tomorrow.
        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:45AM (2 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:45AM (#1263118) Journal

          Perhaps, but voting 3rd party in our current system is in effect a vote for the greater evil, as your vote will accomplish nothing save reduce the lesser evil's totals.

          I'm fine with that. Nothing will change, if we keep going along with the game.

          If we somehow adopt Ranked Choice Voting

          Say by voting for third party candidates that support RCV? We won't get this until the political factors that benefit from the absence of RCV are out of the way.

          • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:13PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:13PM (#1263492)

            Since the greater evil has been the GOP since Nixon the onus is on conservatives to vote 3rd party. Develop a party better than the dems and watch a lot of moderate liberals switch over. The priority is neutering the fascists, and if you can get your side of the aisle to bring down the GOP then we'd definitely have what it takes to fix our voting systems. Conservatives are just terrified of being a political minority, however I'd wager with more than 2 parties conservatives would end up with more power once they are free of the GOP evangelicals. You're getting nothing from Republicans, unless you're quite rich and prefer to make the poor suffer so you can have a few more dollaroos.

            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday July 30 2022, @10:56AM

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday July 30 2022, @10:56AM (#1263888) Journal

              Since the greater evil has been the GOP

              If that were true, then why doesn't everyone just vote Democrat all the time?

              The problem, of course, is that a lot of people don't see the GOP as the greater evil. You can't even understand the lesser evil problem until you recognize that there are other viewpoints and interests out there.

    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by mcgrew on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:06AM

      by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:06AM (#1263109) Homepage Journal

      No, Republicans nominated the absolutely worst presidential candidate there was

      True. I should have said "the worst Democrat presidential candidate." I find it galling that 1/3 of the Supreme Court was appointed by the only president to lose the popular vote twice.

      --
      Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
  • (Score: 2) by RamiK on Monday July 25 2022, @10:45PM (5 children)

    by RamiK (1813) on Monday July 25 2022, @10:45PM (#1262917)

    Great depression type recessions are driven by a lack of free capital causing a stagnation in the consumer markets which feedback into the lack of capital. The recession the media is talking about is one where the people coming out of lockdowns have no free capital and are only finding working-poverty jobs that are barely enough to feed themselves so the consumer markets aren't "turning back on". There's also the food and fuel price increases from current war in Ukraine; The trade wars supply chain shortages; And the up-and-coming war in Iran that are keeping capital in bank accounts and away from the stock markets...

    Anyhow, that's at least what some economists are describing and the media is resonating. Whether they're right or wrong remains to be seen. Either way, so long as we're moving from one market-stagnating global-crisis to the next, there's going to be perpetual recession-like symptoms regardless whether there's inflation, deflation or net zero.

    --
    compiling...
    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 26 2022, @01:46AM (4 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @01:46AM (#1262934) Journal

      Great depression type recessions are driven by a lack of free capital causing a stagnation in the consumer markets which feedback into the lack of capital.

      My take is that great depression type recessions come from government action (among other things causing the above effects). We have plenty of that, not just in the Ukrainian war and the covid-era spending - also things like the tariff wars and a 16 year wild goose chase in Alzheimers research. The end of the Great Depression is educational in that the world turned off many of the Great Depression era policies and dysfunction and near instantly got more powerful economies.

      • (Score: 2) by RamiK on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:38AM (3 children)

        by RamiK (1813) on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:38AM (#1262968)

        from government action

        Well, considering the entire currency system depends on government intervention, it's a given anything related to the economy would be the result of government action/inaction.

        the world turned off many of the Great Depression era policies and dysfunction and near instantly got more powerful economies.

        The wording here is a bit misleading: The classical economic polices were all Say's law's laissez-faire free-market stuff so it's not quite right suggesting some form of deregulation occurred when the new policies that replaced them were quite extreme government interventions in the markets compared to anything else before or since. And that much is, at least, generally in consensus whether you're a libertarian or a Marxists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression#Common_position [wikipedia.org]

        Well, putting aside the more extreme libertarians... But they don't have economic model that survive game theory against foreign centralized governments so they're basically the equivalent of saying "we don't need laws if we all just be nice t each other".

        --
        compiling...
        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:51AM (2 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday July 26 2022, @11:51AM (#1262971) Journal

          Well, considering the entire currency system depends on government intervention

          Which isn't saying much since there's only so much you can "intervene" before you destroy the currency's viability. Basically, a rational approach that just works on making the currency system viable and useful is going to be pretty mild on the government intervention side.

          The wording here is a bit misleading: The classical economic polices were all Say's law's laissez-faire free-market stuff so it's not quite right suggesting some form of deregulation occurred when the new policies that replaced them were quite extreme government interventions in the markets compared to anything else before or since.

          Only if we ignore the even more extreme government interventions of the pre-war years - you know, during the Great Depression. For example, in the US, most of the FDR era official cartels were broken up during the early years of the Second World War. My take is that cartel creation was much more extreme an intervention (particularly with respect to free market approaches) than the breaking up of it.

          • (Score: 2) by RamiK on Tuesday July 26 2022, @01:44PM (1 child)

            by RamiK (1813) on Tuesday July 26 2022, @01:44PM (#1262985)

            a rational approach that just works on making the currency system viable and useful is going to be pretty mild on the government intervention side

            This is just more of the same fallacy of division. At the very minimum, the credibility governments establish for currency is a direct result of their expenditure which, nowadays, is some ~50% of their expenditure. For reference, the military expenditure in the US is just ~3% of GDP so it's safe to say there's trillions of not-so-mild interventions going into the economy at any given moment.

            cartel creation was much more extreme an intervention

            Cartels aren't created by government. They're declared and regulated by government after the markets produced them due to natural monopolies forming around finite raws, scale of production industries and supply chains. It's simply natural for people to join hands and coordinate prices to maximize their profits.

            Keeping markets free when the raws are limited takes big, perpetual interventions to constantly offset one fish eating the next as soon as they gain a size advantage.

            --
            compiling...
            • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:40AM

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday July 27 2022, @01:40AM (#1263117) Journal

              a rational approach that just works on making the currency system viable and useful is going to be pretty mild on the government intervention side

              This is just more of the same fallacy of division. At the very minimum, the credibility governments establish for currency is a direct result of their expenditure which, nowadays, is some ~50% of their expenditure. For reference, the military expenditure in the US is just ~3% of GDP so it's safe to say there's trillions of not-so-mild interventions going into the economy at any given moment.

              Just because you allege the US is overpaying for its currency system by orders of magnitude doesn't mean that we should consider that a rational approach.

              Cartels aren't created by government. They're declared and regulated by government after the markets produced them due to natural monopolies forming around finite raws, scale of production industries and supply chains. It's simply natural for people to join hands and coordinate prices to maximize their profits.

              Keeping markets free when the raws are limited takes big, perpetual interventions to constantly offset one fish eating the next as soon as they gain a size advantage.

              In addition to the existing counterexample of the FDR cartels, there's OPEC which is purely a country-based cartel.

  • (Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @03:48PM (19 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @03:48PM (#1263245)

    This might be a bit offtopic, but where's an AC to post? I'll offer a history lesson of my own, from the perspective of the 23rd or 24th centuries.

    Classic Star Trek depicts the early and middle 21st century as an incredibly dark time in Earth's history. I'm not going to address more recent series that can only be watched from behind CBS' paywall.

    Let's begin with the Bell Riots of 2024. People who lacked employment, whether due to disability or just bad luck, were sent to sanctuary districts. These were massive encampments where people were sent until they could find jobs, but no jobs were available. These districts became overcrowded and living conditions were horrible, with massive inequality between the wealthy and the poor. There was no reporting on the living conditions in the districts, so the public was generally unaware. During a riot at a district in San Francisco, many residents of the district took hostages, broadcast their stories to the outside world, and had success in changing public opinion. Although Gabriel Bell died during the riot, he prevented the hostages from being killed, which was essential in winning support to dismantle the sanctuary districts.

    The success was short-lived as war broke out on a global scale starting in 2026. Humans found one of the worst possible solutions to climate change, which was a massive exchange of nuclear strikes between China, Russia, and the United States, leading to nuclear winter in the mid-21st century. Nearly the entire population of China and India died in the conflict, which ended in 2053. Soldiers were controlled with drugs, a horror in human history that was unique to World War III.

    Even so, the horrors didn't end. People who suffered radiation sickness during the nuclear strikes were euthanized at a massive scale so any mutations in their DNA wouldn't be passed on to future generations. Courts in this time period were harsh, with judges conducting rapid trials with little regard for due process, then sentencing prisoners to be executed for their alleged crimes. Criminal trials were not for the purpose of justice but for the amusement of onlooking crowds.

    When I hear Donald Trump discuss his desire to send the homeless to massive encampments on the edges of cities, to conduct rapid trials of drug dealers and execute them, and to flaunt the United States' nuclear arsenal in international conflicts, it sure seems like we're trying our best to make this dark history come true. Extreme economic inequality is only the beginning, but we're making rapid progress in that direction. When recession strikes as interest rates increase, people who are already precariously living from paycheck to paycheck will face unemployment. How many are we willing to force into Donald Trump's proposed sanctuary districts? Perhaps that's only the beginning of what awaits us.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @08:32PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @08:32PM (#1263327)

      Excelleny analysis, I had not heard of those ideas dumbo floated, what a fascist cunt. Can conservatives please walk back from the cliff?

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @10:58PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 27 2022, @10:58PM (#1263344)

        A lot of the ideas are from Trump's speech yesterday [cnn.com] in DC:

        At one point, Trump praised the way Chinese President Xi Jinping handled drug dealers, recalling a moment where the Chinese president told him about "quick trials" for drug criminals in China that he estimated sentenced people in "two hours."

        "It sounds horrible, doesn't it? But those are the ones that don't have any problem. It doesn't take 15 years in court. It goes quickly," Trump said, before he endorsed a "very strong death penalty for the people who sell drugs" -- something he has argued for since he was president.

        Trump also suggested the federal government needs to build large tent cities on the outskirts of some of the nation's largest urban centers and clear out current homeless camps. He said the government should "create thousands and thousands of high quality tents" at the "outer reaches of the cities," and then bring in medical professionals, psychologists and psychiatrists to work with people.

        Flaunting nuclear capabilities to threaten adversaries is a bit older, when Trump discussed how he would respond to Russia's attack on Ukraine [theguardian.com] and what he would say to Putin:

        “We say, ‘Oh, he’s a nuclear power,’” Trump said. “But we’re a greater nuclear power. We have the greatest submarines in the world, the most powerful machines ever built …

        “You should say, ‘Look, if you mention that word one more time, we’re going to send them over and we’ll be coasting back and forth, up and down your coast. You can’t let this tragedy continue. You can’t let these, these thousands of people die.”

        Trump has some other crazy and reckless ideas that are discussed in those two articles. It's worth reading both of them.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday July 28 2022, @12:00PM (16 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Thursday July 28 2022, @12:00PM (#1263413) Journal

      When I hear Donald Trump discuss [...] it sure seems like we're trying our best

      I was pretty sure there were more people in the world than Donald Trump. When Trump drops one of his stupid ideas, it's not "we" doing that. If your belief system can't handle being in the world with someone with bad ideas, then it's time to get a new belief system.

      Extreme economic inequality is only the beginning, but we're making rapid progress in that direction.

      Such as lessening economic inequality on a global scale? I don't have time to link to the usual sources, but there's something wrong with your narrative.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @03:00PM (15 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @03:00PM (#1263433)

        I was pretty sure there were more people in the world than Donald Trump. When Trump drops one of his stupid ideas, it's not "we" doing that.

        Trump suggests these ideas because a lot of people agree with him. After all, 74 million people voted for him in the 2020 election. There is a very real possibility that Trump could win the 2024 election, again because a lot of people will vote for him. He also has a large group of apologists who make excuses for his actions. This includes your long history of making excuses for Donald Trump for his actions on January 6, 2021 and the events of that day.

        If your belief system can't handle being in the world with someone with bad ideas, then it's time to get a new belief system.

        Once again, the problem isn't that someone has bad ideas. The problem is that the person with bad ideas may very well become President of the United States again in 2024. It isn't that he has bad ideas, but that he may well once again have the ability to implement many of those bad ideas.

        Such as lessening economic inequality on a global scale?

        This is deceptive. There is decreasing economic inequality between nations but growing inequality within those nations. Here is a credible source: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/global-inequality.pdf [brookings.edu]. The homeless camps in the United States are the result of growing inequality within the United States. The GINI Index is a measure of wealth inequality. It has trended upward over time in the United States. Here is another credible source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SIPOVGINIUSA [stlouisfed.org].

        I don't have time to link to the usual sources, but there's something wrong with your narrative.

        In other words, we're just supposed to trust you on this, with no evidence. I suppose that's not surprising since you're advancing deceptive statements.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:30PM (11 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Thursday July 28 2022, @09:30PM (#1263497)

          Not sure why a supposed libertarian like khallow is getting triggered by trump, maybe he is secret trumper that agrees with much of trump's "stuff" while recognizing he is a buffoon? Why ese would khallow still be denying the insurrection happened while hopping to trump's defense at every opportunity? If khallow is not a monster then why does he eat babies? We're just asking questions khallow, calm yer tits.

          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday July 29 2022, @12:58AM (10 children)

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday July 29 2022, @12:58AM (#1263526) Journal

            Not sure why a supposed libertarian like khallow is getting triggered by trump

            I'm not the one in this thread who triggered on Trump. As I pointed out in my quote, somehow we went from crap Trump said to foibles we all supposedly have as a result. It's a great non sequitur.

            • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 29 2022, @01:54AM (9 children)

              by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 29 2022, @01:54AM (#1263541)

              Poor trumpette, having some buyer's remorse after defending the neo-nazi party that tried to overthrow democracy in the US.

              • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday July 29 2022, @12:15PM (8 children)

                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday July 29 2022, @12:15PM (#1263602) Journal
                Let's review that passage again. Keep in mind that Trump wasn't mentioned before in the journal.

                [AC:] When I hear Donald Trump discuss his desire to send the homeless to massive encampments on the edges of cities, to conduct rapid trials of drug dealers and execute them, and to flaunt the United States' nuclear arsenal in international conflicts, it sure seems like we're trying our best to make this dark history come true.

                There's the Trump drama. He says bad things therefore we're all trying to make the bad part of Star Trek true.

                Here's my take. In a democracy, some people will say stupid or mean things. You just have to accept it, not get all fatalistic and claim we're somehow all responsible for the speech of one person. Because to stop that speech will destroy the democracy. For me the real problem here is the amazing number of people who can't understand other viewpoints.

                • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Friday July 29 2022, @07:47PM (7 children)

                  by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Friday July 29 2022, @07:47PM (#1263723) Homepage Journal

                  There's the Trump drama. He says bad things therefore we're all trying to make the bad part of Star Trek true.

                  He tried to OVERTHROW THE GOD DAMNED ELECTION, for Christ's sake!! How can one will oneself into such blindness as you display? Or, like Trump, do you hate democracy and want America to be like Russia?

                  --
                  Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
                  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday July 29 2022, @11:02PM (6 children)

                    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday July 29 2022, @11:02PM (#1263767) Journal

                    He tried to OVERTHROW THE GOD DAMNED ELECTION, for Christ's sake!!

                    Do you or that congressional committee have evidence? Because I don't care otherwise.

                    • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Monday August 01 2022, @06:16PM (5 children)

                      by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Monday August 01 2022, @06:16PM (#1264300) Homepage Journal

                      You apparently didn't watch the hearings. Republican after Republican (there were no Democrat witnesses) swore to his actions under oath. If you want to remove your personal willful ignorance, the hearings are probably on YouTube or congress.gov.

                      --
                      Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
                      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday August 01 2022, @07:20PM (4 children)

                        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 01 2022, @07:20PM (#1264329) Journal

                        Republican after Republican (there were no Democrat witnesses) swore to his actions under oath.

                        Reminds me of the Mueller report and the similar lack of detail. I still get an AC whining about that. Here, what were these actions? What was the actual evidence for the actions? And are the actions actionable?

                        • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Saturday August 06 2022, @03:23PM (3 children)

                          by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Saturday August 06 2022, @03:23PM (#1265265) Homepage Journal

                          It was hours long, six two hour long hearings with Republican after Republican witnessing against Trump. You want a full transcript? Google, you lazy kid. I guess you're too afraid of "woke" to wake up (unless you're trolling, which I'm beginning to suspect).

                          --
                          Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
                          • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Sunday August 07 2022, @12:18AM (2 children)

                            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 07 2022, @12:18AM (#1265359) Journal

                            It was hours long, six two hour long hearings with Republican after Republican witnessing against Trump.

                            They say anything interesting? Last I checked a hearing wasn't evidence merely because it was long. This reminds me of the various arguments that claim some huge report is proof without even the slightest effort at making quotes from that report. It's argument from obfuscation. My take is that if there was something damning in that stuff, multiple media sources would be trumpeting it. I wouldn't need to google for a transcript, and then search through a mass of transcript for this information.

                            • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Monday August 08 2022, @05:59PM (1 child)

                              by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Monday August 08 2022, @05:59PM (#1265583) Homepage Journal

                              As if I said its length was evidence. You're just trolling and I'm done biting.

                              --
                              Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
                              • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 08 2022, @10:15PM

                                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 08 2022, @10:15PM (#1265611) Journal

                                As if I said its length was evidence.

                                I can only go off what you write.

                                It was hours long, six two hour long hearings with Republican after Republican witnessing against Trump.

                                Still looks like it to me.

        • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday July 29 2022, @12:55AM (2 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday July 29 2022, @12:55AM (#1263524) Journal

          He also has a large group of apologists who make excuses for his actions. This includes your long history of making excuses for Donald Trump for his actions on January 6, 2021 and the events of that day.

          I provide similar excuses for anyone accused without evidence. If you had been paying attention, you would have noticed the same of the killing of George Floyd. Any time there's a mass hysteria like this, I'll put in my two cents.

          This is deceptive. There is decreasing economic inequality between nations but growing inequality within those nations.

          Given that you didn't make that observation until now, your earlier statements have been deceptive for the same reasons. And it remains despite your claim of deceptiveness that globally we are seeing a considerable decline in economic inequality as I noted. We may also be seeing decreasing economic inequality within nations too. There's a notorious problem where the wealth of the wealthy is greatly overvalued.

          What I find particularly annoying about the argument is that there's no actual justification for the claim that increasing income equality is a problem in the first place. Sorry, but it's quite clear that most people aren't interested in addressing the inequality through personal behavior. That indicates to me that they don't consider it that valuable a thing to have in the first place.

          If your belief system can't handle being in the world with someone with bad ideas, then it's time to get a new belief system.

          Once again, the problem isn't that someone has bad ideas. The problem is that the person with bad ideas may very well become President of the United States again in 2024. It isn't that he has bad ideas, but that he may well once again have the ability to implement many of those bad ideas.

          Even so, this is an over-the-top concern. We have limitations on political leaders in large part for this reason. And Trump's many opponents aren't just going to let Trump do that without opposition, right? Let's talk about real problems next time when we break out the Star Trek. If that's possible, of course.

          I don't have time to link to the usual sources, but there's something wrong with your narrative.

          In other words, we're just supposed to trust you on this, with no evidence. I suppose that's not surprising since you're advancing deceptive statements.

          Given your alleged knowledge of my history, you've probably seen that evidence before, such as here [soylentnews.org]. That journal has a number of points (all around the observation that we're actually making the world a better place), but the key one for this threada is that in a recent twenty year period (1988-2008) two thirds of humanity basically saw [voxeu.org] a large increase in their personal income. I see that trend continuing since.

          • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Friday July 29 2022, @07:50PM (1 child)

            by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Friday July 29 2022, @07:50PM (#1263725) Homepage Journal

            I provide similar excuses for anyone accused without evidence.

            Mod me redundant, but how can you be so blind? The evidence was all laid out by Jan 6 committee. Aparently, to you, if you ignore evidence it doesn't exist.

            That's how they do things in Russia.

            --
            Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
            • (Score: 2, Funny) by khallow on Friday July 29 2022, @11:00PM

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday July 29 2022, @11:00PM (#1263765) Journal

              Mod me redundant, but how can you be so blind? The evidence was all laid out by Jan 6 committee.

              What was the evidence?

  • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 02 2022, @05:16AM (1 child)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 02 2022, @05:16AM (#1264436) Journal

    The pandemic bust ended and we’re now in a historic boom, better than anything I’ve seen in my seventy years. For the first time in my life, there’s a labor shortage.

    We have a labor shortage [tradingeconomics.com] only because we have the lowest labor participation rates since 1980. I think this is a really unhealthy situation fueled by lots of borrowed money and low labor participation rates.

    • (Score: 2) by mcgrew on Saturday August 06 2022, @03:10PM

      by mcgrew (701) <publish@mcgrewbooks.com> on Saturday August 06 2022, @03:10PM (#1265261) Homepage Journal

      No, it's from the record low buying power of the minimum wage, which ripples up to all workers. In 1965 the federal minimum wage was a dollar forty if memory serves, and a McDonald's hamburger was fifteen cents. Today that same hamburger is $2.50 and the minimum wage is $12.50. Do the math.

      As Reagan said (despite the fact that a capital gains tax cut wasn't a rising tide), "a rising tide lifts all boats." A rising minimum wage IS a rising tide. After the minimum wage buys what a 1965 minimum bought in 1965, it should be tied to inflation like my Social Security check is. Inflation would no longer be a problem.

      But since the rich always benefit from inflation while the poor and middle class suffer, that won't happen. This is a plutocracy and its state religion is the worship of the almighty dollar. Its main temple is on Wall Street.

      --
      Carbon, The only element in the known universe to ever gain sentience
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