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quietus (6328)
It's not a war, but a Special Military Operation. And that operation goes so well, it is now time not to call a general mobilisation, but only a partial mobilisation.
On Wednesday September 21, at 09:15h, Russian President Vladimir Putin made the announcement that was rumored since days: all members of the Russian Army's reserve, as well as anybody who has ever served in the Russian military, are called upon to do their duty in the Special Military Operation, fighting the Nazi-Ukrainian forces.
Refusing to report will result in 15 years prison. Skipping out during service will result in 15 years prison. And surrendering to the enemy without being incapacitated will result in 15 years prison, as will not trying to flee from a POW camp.
The move is not unexpected. The Ukrainian counter-offensive triggered the first comments on Russian television about the need for mobilisation, and it was just waiting until Russian regional elections had passed, last week. On top of that, the recent meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation didn't go to plan, apparently.
First there was India's Modi publicly stating that this ain't a time for war, and that he had repeatedly asked to stop the whole thing. Then there was a falling out over the same subject with both Turkey and Kazakhstan, to which Putin apparently reacted very agressively. All combined might perhaps explain the rather confused press conference afterwards.
Immediately after the end of the SCO Summit, one Nikolai Patrushev stepped on a plane to meet with Chinese colleagues to discuss strategic stability and public security and law and order. He returned after 2 days, on the 19th. On the 20th, a statement by Putin was announced for the evening, but that was postponed for reasons unknown.
In a first phase, 300,000 reservists are being called up but, as Russia's Kommersant business newspaper noted, the total number of people who will be called up is secret, hence open to modification.
Do I need to add that it all ended with the threat to use nuclear weapons?
Official announcement here.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by khallow on Wednesday September 21 2022, @12:00PM (108 children)
Sounds like it's time for a color revolution in Russia. What colors are currently available?
I see that Russia is still pushing for those referendums too. They must further some scheme, maybe checks a box for some law that permits increased mobilization or government power. Does he use similar tactics for Russian elections?
Finally, there's this huge mess for Russia. And it can be largely cleaned up by getting rid of Putin and his cronies.
(Score: 0, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @12:53PM (85 children)
Well, yeah, you think so. It might help to convince other people, if you could point to Russian past history to support such an idea. I suggest that widespread mutiny and rebellion won't happen until, and unless, Russia's armies are beaten down irreparably.
We are seeing Russia take a beating right now, but Russia is a long way from being beaten down.
What makes all of this especially dangerous is, western leaders won't take the nuclear threat seriously. The halfwits all think that they can win a nuclear exchange. Well, maybe not all of them, but more than enough.
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @01:11PM (19 children)
Does Putin really think he can win a nuclear exchange? What will he arm the new soldiers with? Sticks?
(Score: 3, Interesting) by janrinok on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:54PM (15 children)
Probably not - but he is gambling that nobody in the West wants any form of nuclear exchange either.
I don't think he is thinking like a rational man now, if he ever did. If he does not succeed in attaining his goals then he knows that he is finished. So he has to live up to his 'hard man' persona, and convince his public that NATO is already taking part in this war. He argues that he is fighting for the survival of Russian speaking people everywhere. He has ordered partial mobilisation of reservists. He has moved the Black Sea Kilo class submarines from Crimea out of reach of any potential threat, after losing both aircraft and naval assets there. He is upping the nuclear threat. He wants the West to back down.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:02PM (2 children)
One way to further up the nuclear threat is to do an above ground nuclear explosion somewhere on a testing ground, when wind and atmospheric conditions are favourable.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by janrinok on Wednesday September 21 2022, @06:35PM (1 child)
That would certainly concentrate a few minds - but it comes with its own problems.
There are 2 major testing grounds - the far north of the country and the Kazakh tundra. Unfortunately, the effects would be felt not only by the West but by other nations who are currently 'neutral' in this conflict. A detonation in the far north might go towards Canada and the USA but at this time of the year it much more likely to travel southwards, crossing lots of friendly territory as it does so.
Kazakhstan is technically an independent country and might not be amenable to having such a test on its territory, nor would its neighbours in the Caucasus feel too pleased either. The whole point of these two places is that they are not only remote but that they are far enough away from prying foreign eyes. Yes. the fallout would certainly reach the West eventually but only after crossing quite a few other countries beforehand. And what, in the end, would it prove? We know that Russia has the weapons.
A bigger and more likely risk it to intentionally attack one of the smaller nuclear power stations inside Ukraine in something of a scorched earth policy and at the same time removing some of Ukraine's power generation capabilities. A favourable wind direction would also exists here. Khmelnitsky or Rivne NPP would be the most likely targets. I would expect the Russians NOT to disable Zaporozhye as it provides a significant amount of power for the breakaway regions. If they were losing however, then they might not care so much about that. They don't have to prove that they have nuclear weapons, only that they are not frightened by the threat of radiation and fallout, whereas the West is much more averse to that risk.
(Score: 2) by deimtee on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:12PM
Or he could combine it with the story from a couple of days ago and solve two problems - use a nuke to take out some of Starlink's satellites.
If you cough while drinking cheap red wine it really cleans out your sinuses.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:06PM (10 children)
What makes you think they're not taking part?
(Score: 3, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @11:04PM (9 children)
The obvious fact of continued existence of Russia.
(Score: 0, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @11:13PM (8 children)
Don't be silly. Ending Russia would end the war. The idea is to keep it going
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @10:44PM (7 children)
Redundant
Eh... mod squad... whaddya gonna do? Bunch of mindless dweebs
(Score: 2) by janrinok on Friday September 23 2022, @01:13AM (6 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @03:47PM (5 children)
<Menacing Darth Vader voice>Yes, pray that janrinok does not change it further.
(Score: 2) by janrinok on Friday September 23 2022, @06:35PM (4 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @03:39PM (3 children)
Actually, I was aiming for a +5, Funny but whatever.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @02:59AM (2 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @03:04AM (1 child)
Not huffy, disappointed.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @03:14AM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 26 2022, @05:01AM
Doesn't hold too much water to a population that see clearly it is not under attack.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:58PM (2 children)
Well he's down to sticks and nukes so I picture a nuke duct taped to a stick.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:00PM (1 child)
To be honest......that's some fucking war hammer!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @07:36AM
You can call it the "Warhammer: 40K" if you get the right sized nukes.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by khallow on Wednesday September 21 2022, @01:34PM (12 children)
Such as the rebellions during the First World War? I got this.
So what does "take the nuclear threat seriously" mean? Should we be positioning nuclear weapons in and around Ukraine? That serious enough for you?
My take is that the world recognizes that it is in a situation like before the Second World War where various brutal regimes were appeased to catastrophic effect.
(Score: 0, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:36PM (6 children)
Any nuclear exchange will quickly escalate to all-out nuclear war.
Don't appease Putin because he will invade other countries? Which country? they are all NATO members, by the very definition of NATO, safe from invasion.
All you have to do is appease Putin long enough for him to die from old age, a decade at the maximum.
Also lets look at that word 'appease', warmongers call it 'appease' while diplomats call it 'compromise'.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @03:55PM (1 child)
Nothing is safe from invasion when "defenders" are cowards, no matter if the cowards call themselves NATO or some other alphabet soup.
Imagine that Putin invades Estonia and threatens to launch his nukes if NATO forces dare oppose him. What then?
And if you give him Estonia, he'll have his pick of NATO countries to gobble up next, using the same threat to disable the "defenders".
When an enemy threatens you with something, you either prepare to counter the threat, or lie down and convince yourself to enjoy the ass-fucking. No other options there. And enemy leader dying from old age will help you none, for there will be plenty of young field commanders ready and willing to continue their path of easy victories.
For an enemy to stop, YOU need to STOP them. Not tooth fairy, nor Santa, nor any other magic being will do that thing for you.
(Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:37PM
Fuckin' guy can't even get basic geography right, we're supposed to trust his military analysis?
Only 6% of Russia's land borders touch NATO countries. Russia has land borders with 14 countries. Only five of them are NATO members. [nato.int]
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:19PM
Not necessarily. An incident at a nuclear power plant would make the front over which the enemy attacks smaller, while simultaneously influencing public opinion/risk perception on the side of the “collective West” — who will be blamed as instigators at best, and as having planned and carried out the attack on purpose, at worst, i.e. in all probability.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:31PM (2 children)
"Safe from invasion", eh? So all we need to do to win the war in Ukraine is make Ukraine a NATO member. That's how it works?
As others noted, depends on who follows him. Appeasing him would strengthen his allies and make them more likely to be the successors.
Those "diplomats" killed 70 million people in the Second World War by that appeasement.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:46PM (1 child)
Finland, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakstan, China, Mongolia and even North Korea share land borders with Russia and are not NATO members.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @04:23AM
Finland is getting off of that list ASAP for some reason, when only a year ago they'd have laughed at the idea. I wonder why. /s
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:56PM (4 children)
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:36PM (3 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @04:47PM
Why even argue with the resident Russian shill?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @06:25PM (1 child)
They can't. You have to look at the psychology of the mind, ego, bravado, narcissism. It will always overpower and overtake rationality and reason.
Puketin thinks he's going to go down in history as a hero. Sadly some may view him that way.
If anyone was brave enough to put a bullet in Puketin's head, that person would go down in history as hero.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @03:47PM
Actually, the Russian style is for several party apparatchiks to hastily convene a news conference to explain that Putin has "voluntarily" stepped down for "health reasons"; he will be convalescing in a remote hospital out of the public eye. Don't be too surprised if a few days later Putin has a fatal "accident".
(Score: 4, Funny) by DannyB on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:22PM (45 children)
I guess the western nations should just back down and let Russia roll over country after country until they think they have expanded enough.
We could re-elect someone who would have the courage to back down and enable all this to happen.
While we have a right to peacefully assemble, we do not yet have a right to repair.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @03:12PM (44 children)
Oh, noes! That old "domino effect" talking point! If one country falls, the next on in line has to fall! Slippery slope, much?
Let's look at reality, instead. Russia is pitted against the might of the west right now, and both sides are suffering badly. Neither side is seeing the effects that they expected. Russia doesn't have the freaking STRENGTH to start another war - they are reaching deep right now for personnel. The West, on the other hand, has set itself up for a long, long, cold winter, in which we should expect casualties. I use the term "casualties", because we are waging an economic war, and those people will die as a result of that war.
The only major advantage the West has over Russia, is manpower. If Nato commits to fighting in Ukraine (and/or whichever country you imagine Russia will invade next) we can outnumber Russian troops in short order. Things look bad for Russia - except Russia has promised to play it's trump card - nukes.
Everyone needs to decide whether Ukraine is worth nuclear war. I say it's not.
Keep in mind, all the current problems in Ukraine were instigated by the West. We invested billions after billions to ensure there would be a coup in Ukraine. We started this shit, but I don't want to see how it ends. Whether Nato or Russia ends it, it's going to be catastrophic, for all of us.
Fuck it. Stop sending billions in military aid to Ukraine every other day. Stop giving them intel. Just stop it. I don't give a small rat's ass that Ukrainians might live under Russian rule. The only people benefitting from any of this, are the arms dealers, and the billionaires who have invested so many billions into the situation. Fuck all of them.
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @04:08PM (8 children)
Russia did not have the freaking strength to start THIS war. Had not stopped them.
You cannot expect rational actions from people who already behave irrationally (and/or do not have the continued existence of Russia among their actual objectives). Besides, Russian nukes do not magically poof and disappear if you feed Ukraine to Putin, nor if you feed him Poland, nor if you feed him Alaska or California or whatever else. And threatening you with them again and again once you bow to the threat, will be rational, even. Your cowardice will be your downfall.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @04:28PM (7 children)
You're making just a little sense. But, it's very little because Poland is already under the NATO umbrella. You want to start over with better examples?
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:39PM (1 child)
(Score: 0, Funny) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:23PM
Calexit, coming soon.
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @06:20PM (4 children)
Do you believe the "NATO umbrella" is a special magic spell to shield your arse from Putin's nukes? No, Virginia, it isn't. It is merely a complement of similar nukes, and the ONLY thing it is good for, is making sure Putin gets a retaliatory nuke or ten onto his bunker if he dares launch one to kill you. It is NOT a protection; the protection is Putin's FEAR of that nuclear retaliation.
If Putin has cause not to fear you, then your virgin arse is bare and ready to be fucked hard. Possibly with an umbrella, or a mop, or something else creative. It is how it works.
(Score: 1, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:22PM (3 children)
Well, now. Let me see here. Actually, allow me to turn the question around on you. Do you believe that treaties are important? Have not the various heads of state from most of the civilized world made much of treaties, agreements, etc ad nauseum?
The fact is, there are no formal treaties between NATO nations and Ukraine to defend Ukraine from - - - anything. If the Martians invade Ukraine tomorrow, we aren't obligated to come to Ukraine's aid. If the creatures inside of the hollow earth invade Ukraine, same thing. If 20th dimensional beings invade, ditto the above.
Poland, however, being a member of NATO, actually has treaties and agreements in place. If Poland is invaded by whomever, whatever, Poland has every right to expect that NATO comes to Poland's defense.
Let us reinforce that: Poland is a member of NATO and the EU, Ukraine is not a member of NATO or the EU. We are obligated to defend Poland, we have no obligation to defend Ukraine.
Actually, if you want to be honest, there is no protection from nukes. Once launched, you're fucked, no matter who you are, where you are, or how many treaties purport to protect you.
But, do go on. Tell us how backing Russia into a corner is protecting us.
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @08:35PM (2 children)
As to treaties, Ukraine believed the Budapest memorandum meant something when it handed away the ex-Soviet nukes. And creative reading can be applied to NATO treaties just the same as it was applied to Anglo-Polish and Franco-Polish alliance treaties when Poland got invaded in 1939.
Treaties mean nothing when their parties are too dishonest or cowardly to do what they promised.
As to "backing Russia into a corner", can you tell us WHAT place we must give Putin, to be guaranteed from his declaring it a "corner" too? A jail cell would give such a guarantee, a shallow grave can too, and nothing else can. Because Russia is worse than "in a corner"; it is in a deep, deep hole, put there by Putin and his gang of thieves who near totally destroyed all the non-extractive industries in the country, and nothing but their removal from power will stop their digging that hole ever deeper. No amount of extra territory to plunder will ever be enough for that "economic model", it is a cancerous ulcer on the face of the world.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @12:00AM (1 child)
If treaties mean anything, that one would. It also has the feature that Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity.
That's the huge thing missed with this argument. When you're dealing with a paranoid dictator, they have really high maintenance when it comes to this sort of thing. There's always something threatening or scary.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @02:01AM
We voted him out a couple of years ago. Think he'll run again?
(Score: 4, Insightful) by cmdrklarg on Wednesday September 21 2022, @04:48PM (1 child)
I get what you're saying, and I wish we could just roll over and ignore the problem too.
Unfortunately for us, history shows us that appeasement doesn't end the problem. It just kicks the can down the road into the future, when the mess has simply gotten bigger and even less manageable. If Putin is allowed to take Ukraine he won't stop there.
Answer now is don't give in; aim for a new tomorrow.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @07:50AM
Considering that they are and have been slowly taking over parts of Georgia, their repeated talk about reuniting the entire Russian Empire, and that they accidentally announced plans to take Moldova when they though they were winning, this isn't even some theoretical argument about what a megalomaniacal dictator might plan on doing.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @04:59PM (23 children)
Yes, let's take a look at reality.
Really, both sides are suffering badly? We in "the west" are suffering badly? How so? Out here in Albuquerque, about the only noticeable effect this has had on me so far is that I pay a bit more at the gas pump and the grocery store. Methinks your estimation of how much we are suffering is a bit overwrought. The people who are truly feeling the pain are living through a war in Ukraine. When are you going to start feeling some concern for them?
Casualties? I expect my gas and electric bills to go up. Thankfully, I am not expecting any casualties in my home or the homes of my neighbors. Where the hell do you live that you are expecting "casualties"?
Again, your rhetoric is much too overwrought. People are going to be feeling pain at the gas pump and the grocery store. They will be paying higher prices for power and gas this winter. Not fun. But I am not foreseeing "casualties".
Yes, we have already noted that you are a fine little Putin stooge. I'm sure he is proud of your propaganda efforts.
Bullshit!!! No one held a gun to Putin's head and told him he must invade Ukraine. He decided this entirely on his own, against the advice of many in his own country and around the world. This is all on him. No one else.
Hmmmmm. Maybe my recollection is flawed but I was under the impression that a few months back you were complaining that the USA was not sending military aid to Ukraine fast enough. Did your handlers in the Kremlin not approve of that? Just curious.
Yes, as I've already noted, you make a fine Putin stooge. I'm sure he's proud of your efforts.
(Score: -1, Redundant) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:28PM (22 children)
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @12:43AM (18 children)
Let's consider that:
A: The Ukrainian public. The conspiracy spin neglects that there were months of massive public protests. It wouldn't happen merely with magic Koch brother or Soros cooties.
A: Russia. I guess we're supposed to ignore that Russian interference and eight years of military support by Russia. It would have been over in August or September 2014 otherwise.
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by Runaway1956 on Thursday September 22 2022, @01:33AM (6 children)
*yawn*
Boring.
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @01:46AM
And now for something completely different.
New York state files huge lawsuit against Trump for systematic fraud [wsws.org]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:24AM (3 children)
(Score: 0, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Thursday September 22 2022, @04:44AM (2 children)
Translation: You've long ago made your mind up, and are unwilling to look at other perspectives or evidence.
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @07:26AM
One of the pretexts of MAGA seems to be that for America to return to its gold era of the 1950s-70s, Cold War 2.0 needs a strong villain.
What a pity Ukrainians are then merely collateral damage in your far right fantasy.
Why do you keep supporting a genocidal cunt like Putin?
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @12:01PM
I'll note, for example, that you've never provided evidence for significant Koch brothers or Soros involvement in the 2014 Euromaidan revolution. I gather there's some crude statements by US officials that implies material US support, perhaps even that CIA support that is alleged. Meanwhile, when you look at the timeline [wikipedia.org], there's plenty of large protests throughout the saga. Then and now, there's a lot of effort by the locals that's being completely dismissed because foreign involvement is exaggerated.
My guess is that this is merely a bit of propaganda to invalidate Euromaidan and of course, blame the Great Satan. If it's just CIA/Soros/Koch brothers, then the revolution doesn't count and the US started it all. That's been your line too, right?
All I can say, is that the Ukrainians are pretty eager for a foreign-led coup. I think it's worth comparing this to a genuine CIA-led coup, that of Afghanistan. As long as there were US military providing firepower on the ground, Afghanistan was stable. The moment the US left, the Taliban took over. There wasn't even a slight effort at preserving the government.
While it is obvious that Ukraine would have done far worse without the massive supply of foreign weapons, they've fought this war themselves - not US forces with the locals watching on. They defeated that decapitation strike and have repeatedly shown strong initiative, such as repeatedly taking advantage of Russian mistakes and weaknesses.
As to perspectives, flat Earth is also a perspective. Evidence is what makes the perspective worth considering. There's an AC muttering about "unfounded war mongering propaganda", but they won't provide even the slightest support for the allegation.
Last time you provided a serious perspective to your argument in a journal, we had the typical one-sided arguments [soylentnews.org].
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @05:10PM
It hasn't escaped my notice that whenever you are losing an argument you suddenly declare it "boring". I wouldn't be surprised if others have noticed this too.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @02:08AM (9 children)
Again you merely repeat unfounded war mongering propaganda
(Score: 4, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @02:14AM (6 children)
Putin is the war monger.
People are being arrested on the streets of Russia in protest at being conscripted.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @02:37AM
> People are being arrested on the streets of Russia in protest at being conscripted.
Yes, came here to say the same thing. BBC reports over a thousand detained/arrested already, mostly in Moscow and Saint Petersburg. It might take a little while to verify, but there appear to be documentary photos/videos from private cell phones confirming this.
Also various reports of airliners full of men leaving Russia. One report seemed clever, Google reports a spike in air ticket purchase requests from Russia to Turkey and other countries that accept Russians with no special visa.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:21PM (4 children)
Of course, no-one in America has ever been arrested for protesting conscription or dodging the draft.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @05:26PM (3 children)
Not sure what point you are trying to make. Protests in the USA against the Vietnam war built in intensity through the 1960s and were eventually successful in the early 1970s. That war became so unpopular that the government eventually withdrew (and not very gracefully, if there is such a thing in war).
Things happen faster today with social media making it much easier to gather people for demonstrations on short notice, etc.
Reports (BBC) suggest that a dozen or so of the recent Russian demonstrators that were detained were then conscripted, nearly "on the spot". I don't recall if the USA ever tried that trick?
(Score: 3, Informative) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @06:53AM (2 children)
The source of these reports might have been Kommersant* (a newspaper in Russia, comparable to the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times), which reported people being arrested and, upon release, immediately being served with their mobilisation papers. There's no doubt they'll get 'additional training' before being sent to the front line. If you were still in doubt, this clearly shows that mobilisation is not going to be "partial".
In other words, in Putin Russia they don't bother anymore with sending you to prison -- Stalin is spinning in his coffin for not having thought about that himself.
This was predicted, btw, by a Russian journalist, who suggested that could be one of the main reasons for declaring mobilisation -- put any protests down:
As a final note, the number of 300,000 conscripts. Izvestia reported yesterday that that number could rise to a million, with especially the people younger than 30 being targeted. As Russia has an obligatory military duty, effectively everyone healthy has served in the military, and can be called up. Also reported by Izvestia (or Ria Novosti) is that the current crop of conscripts will be receiving their mobilisation order once they've finished their conscription.
*: I would link to the original article, but yandex' translation doesn't work on the desktop currently (while the translation app still does its thing).
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @09:08AM
Also people who were discharged from Russia's obligatory draft at age 18 due to health reasons, can be mobilised, according to the Military Kommissar of the Irkutsk region, Yevgheny Fuzhenko, reports Kommersant.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @02:58PM
The number has now been upped to 1.2 million [meduza.io] people, mainly from rural areas.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:28AM
Well, since you're not uttering a word in rebuttal, I see no reason to care about your post. If you wish to disagree, then provide disagreement.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:31AM
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Thursday September 22 2022, @06:18PM
Hahah, a Koch (((Soros))) teamup is what Runaway just proposed........ with a straight face.
(Score: 5, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @04:58PM
Perhaps you missed this in my previous comment:
So, when are you going to start showing some concern for the people of Ukraine? Do you still stand by your comment that you "don't give a small rat's ass that Ukrainians might live under Russian rule"?
I will just note that Putin could solve that problem in a matter of an hour or two with just a few phone calls.
No, I accept what I am seeing with my own eyes and what I am hearing with my own ears. In your previous comment you said that "we" in the west were suffering. You said that "we" should be anticipating casualties soon. I'm not yet seeing signs of any of that. The most significant change is that I was paying more for fuel at the gas pump, although gas prices have been coming down in recent weeks. I am also paying somewhat more for groceries. But NO casualties in my neighborhood, so far. And I don't really expect any casualties here in the heartland to come from this. By contrast, the ones who are really suffering are the Ukrainians. They really are suffering casualties. As in, mass graves types of casualties. Don't you think we should be concerned about that?
If you are referring to what I think you are referring to, the people of Ukraine got rid of a Russian-backed lackey. Why do you object to the Ukrainians deciding how they are governed (and by whom)?
I believe that is Russian-backed militias. Pay attention!
<rolls eyes>And you accuse me of delving into "stupid"? You have got a hell of lot of nerve!
Neither is it the paranoid fantasy you are portraying it to be, Vlad.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 26 2022, @05:33AM (1 child)
Errmmm... why have you stopped that late? Remember that poked face, bankrolled by Soros </s>? [wikipedia.org]
(Score: 1) by khallow on Monday September 26 2022, @11:46AM
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:00PM (2 children)
Runaway Go Fuck Yourself.
(Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:24PM (1 child)
Obviously, Runaway wins, you lose.
(Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @08:14PM
Oblivously, Runaway does win the idiot Ruskie shill contest. How could he not? But even if he wins, he looses. So Fuck Off, Runaway. Before you make it even more plain that you are an ignorant moron.
(Score: 5, Informative) by DannyB on Wednesday September 21 2022, @08:42PM (4 children)
I would love to hear the explanation of that from your boss Putin.
Countries existed peacefully. They attended to their own defense. Did not threaten their neighbors.
While we have a right to peacefully assemble, we do not yet have a right to repair.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:35PM (3 children)
Just fuck off Danny Boy.
Hail to the Nibbler in Chief.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:27PM
Keep sucking Vlad's cock, Putin shill.
Get your head out of your ass.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:37PM
Obviously, Danny Boy wins, you lose.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @04:50PM
You are such a whiny baby! Trump is a loser, you are a loser, no amount of bullshit will ever make up for your poor choicea. Even janrinok is tired of your racist rightwing craziness, but he is too protective of rightwing snowflakes so he continues tolerating you.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 26 2022, @05:16AM
6 more months. This is all Europe needs to solve its dependency on Russian gas.
After that, it will be only the graininess and Russians to suffer from Putin's foolhardiness.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:34PM (3 children)
"What makes all of this especially dangerous is, western leaders won't take the nuclear threat seriously. The halfwits all think that they can win a nuclear exchange. Well, maybe not all of them, but more than enough."
Prove that statement.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:58PM (2 children)
Open a news site on your own. If you're not keeping up with events, I'm not bringing you up to speed.
(Score: 0, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @03:08PM
I thought you didn't believe MSM? Do you only believe the news from right-wing loonies?
(Score: 3, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @03:26PM
Seven months into a 3-day Special Military Operation and you accuse others of not keeping up with the news?
(Score: 3, Touché) by DannyB on Thursday September 22 2022, @09:26PM
If we should just appease bad guys, lie down and let them roll over us, then why would you need to own a gun?
While we have a right to peacefully assemble, we do not yet have a right to repair.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @05:26PM
Has Putin sent you your draft notice yet?
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 21 2022, @01:45PM (2 children)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:01PM (1 child)
Ukraine is going to need a lot more sunflower seeds.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @01:36AM
> Ukraine is going to need a lot more sunflower seeds.
No shortage of sunflower seeds. What they need is an army of snide grannies to give the seeds to Russian soldiers...to put in their pockets...and thus fertilize the seeds after their death by the younger members of the Ukraine army.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @03:01PM (17 children)
It's not just Putin, his propagandists and his siloviki. The only political party in the Russian Federation that is a viable alternative is the Communist party (KPRF), let's consider the position of their leader Gennady Zyuganov on this partial mobilization...
The problem is so deeply embedded in the Russian psyche that removing Putin will solve nothing!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @04:16PM (15 children)
The "Communist party" in Russia is a complete fake, since 1996 when Zyuganov sold his election win. It was all downhill from there in the 26 years that followed, and I suspect the bastards haven't hit the rock bottom even now. No real limits to degradation fueled by greed.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:06PM (14 children)
"It wasn't (a) real communis(t)[m] (party)"!
Much of the support for Putin's war comes from boomers who remember the Soviet Empire fondly. It's an issue of national identity.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:24PM (1 child)
It's not a real communist party because it's not a real party, period. Just another token opposition to United Russia.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @05:58PM
And Communists, like Putin, are well known for their love of Democracy. LOL [cprf.ru]
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @06:09PM (11 children)
For those who DO remember the Soviet times, the very idea of Russians killing Ukrainians is the height of crazy. Common people of the two nations have lived and worked beside each other everywhere in the USSR through all years of its existence, and afterwards in Russia and Ukraine which did not even have a border between them till 2014. The enmity was ENTIRELY manufactured by Putin's propaganda initially.
At present, the years of fighting culminating in the full-scale war, have created plenty blood feuds, but then in 2014, what happened was totally out of the blue. A horrible demonstration of the power of TV-delivered propaganda.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:10PM (6 children)
S14 was founded in 2010 and some of the other paramilitaries involved in Right Sector were predominately Russian speaking. You can't blame the conflict on 2014 propaganda without acknowledging the years of street level gangsterism and thuggery that paved the way -- Western linked Ukrainian oligarchs funded right wing thugs to stand up to Putin linked thugs. There's no deeper mystery here and older Russians absolutely view "the Ukraine" [wikipedia.org] as their backyard.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:51PM (2 children)
The thuggery was absolutely non-exceptional compared to common run-of-the-mill gangs in Russia, Ukraine, and in late USSR before that. So, some gangs used nationality as an excuse to beat and rob people; what a non-thing, a lot of gangs in larger cities used your being from a "wrong" district as an excuse for same. still others used your wearing a "wrong" clothing or accessories or hairstyle. Gangs are gangs are gangs, gang wars are what gangs do for fun, and upgrading a gang war into an international conflict is entirely Putin's doing.
As to how "older Russians view Ukraine", HOW was it relevant to anything when those Russians could freely travel to Ukraine through the nonexistent border anytime they wanted to? Some of Russia's internal passenger train routes even went part of their way through Ukraine.
For common people, the pre-2014 arrangement was like, say, Germany and Switzerland are now. The ONLY creatures displeased with that, were the politicians and their pet gangsters. The rest is history. :(
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @08:47PM (1 child)
Politics and thuggery are one and the same when dealing with Russia and a gang with political backing is more accurately called a paramilitary. Putin didn't begin backing Russian National Unity until after Euromaidan, by which time the Ukrainian government was cracking down on Right Sector due to their street violence.
The border situation didn't reflect attitudes. For that, see the way Ukrainian women are discussed on Ru telegram channels.
Conflicts like this are so ugly and stupid that being honest about them costs us nothing extra in terms of revulsion.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:53PM
If you think the Russian non-gentlemen use better words when discussing Russian women, you are sorely mistaken; they totally believe women are subhuman, and love to say it in the safety of Internet. Nationality is just one of hundreds possible triggers for them to spew their spite.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @12:38PM (2 children)
You can rationalize anything when your pretexts can be so feeble.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @12:48PM (1 child)
S14 and Russian National Unity were both considered neo-nazi organizations. Who is excusing them and how does being honest about the timeline and nature of events excuse Putin?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Thursday September 22 2022, @05:31PM
There's also the peculiar lack of readiness of the Russian military. Perhaps Putin and his stooges should have paid more attention to that rather than just take their cut? Fools can dismiss the rest as imaginary propaganda, but they can't hide from the fact that this war shouldn't have taken so long or have been so poorly carried out by Putin's people. This is a brazen display of weakness and there's no one in sight to replace Putin with competent, courageous leadership.
(Score: 5, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @07:49PM (3 children)
What's even more insane to me is how quickly the Republican party rolled right over and started defending Russian military aggression!
(Score: 4, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @07:55AM
Gotta protect those campaign donations.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:29PM (1 child)
It's not insane at all. They are not defending Putin, they are saying "it's none of our business".
The Republicans have always been opposed to getting involved in other people's wars. It's the DNC-MIC that like spending trillions on weapons and need an excuse to do so.
(Score: 5, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @05:19PM
I think Reagan and George H.W. Bush would disagree with you. And those are just the two that come immediately to my mind.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 21 2022, @06:12PM
(Score: 3, Funny) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:45PM
There's a whole rainbow we could use! Somebody defeating Russia with a rainbow flag would basically make up for the last three years of shit I've put up with!
(Score: 3, Informative) by quietus on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:09PM (6 children)
It is not only the self-proclaimed DNR and LNR republics that are going to hold a referendum. The same referendum will also be held in Russian-occupied territories in the Kherson region and around Zhaporozye.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Wednesday September 21 2022, @02:18PM (3 children)
Correction: it is not the same referendum in those last 2 regions. Voters there will be asked 2 additional questions: whether they want to want to withdraw their region from Ukraine territory and declare their region an independent state.
To ensure that the low bar of 50% in favour is reached (memories of Brexit, perhaps), voting authorities can decide it is too unsafe to count the votes in place, and instead move the counting to a central location.
(Score: 2) by Freeman on Wednesday September 21 2022, @08:48PM (2 children)
Ignore the Russian guys at the entrance with AKs.
Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @08:34PM
It's the ones waiting in the voting booths to 'help you vote correctly' that you need to watch out for..
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @01:22AM
In addition to the Russian loyalist guards they will have two clear plastic receptacles, the respective votes go in different ones, and only the no votes in the no box count while any yes vote in either box counts, if it is like the one in Crimea.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:49PM (1 child)
Somehow I predict the answer will be 96%! It's somehow always 96.....
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @09:21AM
Gotya there -- Izvestia reports it will be 97%.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:14PM (9 children)
https://www.newsweek.com/how-break-arm-becomes-top-google-trend-russians-face-putin-ukraine-war-conscription-1744830 [newsweek.com]
(Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:54PM (1 child)
As of a few hours ago those protests have resulted in hundreds of arrests. Being arrested for protesting can result in 15 years in prison so those guys are not fucking around.
Ukraine conflict: Russia arrests hundreds at anti-war protests [bbc.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:32PM
Those arrested are being conscripted. Just when we don't think the Russian military can do worse, Putin instills mutiny in the ranks.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 21 2022, @09:59PM (6 children)
I'm hearing that even morons who adopted Z symbolism are having epiphanies when they get handed their conscription papers.
(Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Wednesday September 21 2022, @10:08PM (5 children)
There's some pretty crazy stories coming out on various social medias from folks who claim to be on the ground. Probably just some propaganda and/or wanting to believe; but shit might seem to be heating up....
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @02:42PM (3 children)
Well, the enlistment offices are. [kyivpost.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @03:34PM (1 child)
Vell, comwade. Just asking for a fwiend, vhat happens vhen you put a Molotov in a home-made twebuchet?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @06:17PM
The molecules become fully mobilized, just how Vlad likes it.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @08:32PM
Again? I suppose it shouldn't be surprising since the penalty for protesting or draft dodging is 15 years, but arson is only five to ten.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 22 2022, @06:44PM
Old Russian Proverb: Break a Leg!
(Score: 3, Interesting) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @07:46AM (18 children)
(Good that nobody reads the links in a sub, so I still have room to make some silly comments.)
The escalation does not lie in the mobilisation of the Russian population for the Special Military Operation. That was expected and would be necessary just to freeze the front.
The real escalation is in officially declaring that the "collective West" is the real enemy. From the horse's mouth:
Now, a scenario.
Russia uses the current mobilisation to replace well-trained troops in the Far East with drafted people, moving the experienced military to the Ukrainian front, supported by modern tanks -- no T-34s anymore but, say, T-14s [wikipedia.org] -- and long range artillery [rbth.com]. The Ukrainians are pushed back to beyond the Dnjepr. What next?
Well, take the whole South, ofcourse, i.e. the Black Sea coast. Then what? Well, fulfill the whole original aims of the operation and take Kiev too. By then you've conquered more than half the country anyway, so why not go further and take the rest of the country?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @12:46PM (11 children)
Well, why didn't they do that in the first place? My bet is that Putin couldn't get the political support to do that. Such a move might lose enough support in the military that he can't stay in power.
And now, that Ukraine is well armed with both a ridiculous number of anti-tank missiles and longer range artillery, as well as an experienced military that already has chalked some wins on the battlefield, I think it'd be a real mess for the Russians. They can to some extent afford to throw away what they're losing now. If they start losing that advanced gear and experienced personnel, it'll create serious strategic weaknesses for years to come.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @02:50PM (9 children)
Well, why didn't Stalin do that at the start of Operation Barbarossa? And as your talking about political support by the military, can you point to at least a couple of military men who grew rich under Putin and belong to his Kremlin inner circle? Forgive my stupidity here, but I only see FSB, former bodyguards and 'self-made' men there.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @05:53PM (5 children)
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @09:12AM (4 children)
Is that why the Ukraine operation runs so well, because the military professionals are in charge?
(Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Saturday September 24 2022, @12:35PM
One of the things missed about a democracy is that the military can run with a much longer leash, because a military leader who takes initiative and succeeds on the battlefield doesn't automatically become a threat to the government. Meanwhile in Russia, such a leader might become the nucleus for a coup. There are plenty of Russian military leaders, but they don't have incentive to stand out and risk getting culled by Putin (or bombed by Ukraine).
It remains that the invading army was remarkably unskilled for the important task they were performing. Even now, they can't seem to do a lot of standard military tactics like combined arms, which used to be a Russian competence.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @05:11AM (2 children)
The Ukrainian military runs so well because they follow modern military science. The US and the West have devoted a large amount of resources in learning from the past to avoid repeating its failures. The failures of Russia go well beyond Putin acting as generalissimo and go to the very core of their military culture, organization, strategy, tactics, and doctrine.
For the best example of that, look at how Russia and Ukraine have so far taken completely different approaches regarding the Dnieper River, among other major offenses.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @12:43PM (1 child)
[citation-needed]
Dubya made a fine mess in both Afghanistan and Iraq. ISIS and the resurgence of the Taliban have proven the War on Terror to have been a complete failure.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @09:58PM
The War on Terror may have been a failure but that isn't the military's fault. They did exactly what they were supposed to do and quickly had the Taliban and Saddam on the run. The problem is that US diplomacy failed and the hearts and minds weren't desirous of the outcome the US wanted to impose. The only reason things went as relatively well as they did is precisely because the military managed to prop up the situation from complete collapse.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @09:36PM (2 children)
Because he was more interested in weeding out thoughtcrime than in having a functioning military. If Putin is following in Stalin's military boots, then it's going to hurt for Russia.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @08:13AM (1 child)
Putin did the same -- since 2016 political commissars were added to the army, to ensure the correct political thought. You might notice the similarity with the Chinese system.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday September 24 2022, @12:36PM
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @03:12AM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @01:58AM (5 children)
> Russia uses the current mobilization to replace well-trained troops in the Far East with drafted people, moving the experienced military to the Ukrainian front,
One potential problem I see with your scenario is the relationship between Putin and Xi. Xi certainly seems to have the upper hand now and if Russia removes most of their troops on the Chinese & Mongolian borders, what's to stop China from waltzing in. This could be in parallel to the way that China has persistently put settlers and troops into their western neighbors for years (think Tibet, but plenty of others as well).
The other problem of course is that the experienced Russian troops in the Far East have it (I'm guessing here) relatively easy now as "security". How many will defect or go AWOL if they find out they are being sent to a hot war?
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @08:54AM (1 child)
Your opinion vis-a-vis the Putin-Xi relationship is shared by the vast majority of analysts. I've been closely following Chinese and Russian propaganda since the start of covid, and I think that opinion is wrong.
We thought the Cold War ended with the fall of the Wall, and the subsequent opening up of China (and so, but with a wary mind, did the local population). We were mistaken, because the conflict isn't about ideology, but about superiority.
The best comparison is with the conflict between Germany and France at the end of the 19th century. In China and Russia's vision, 1989 is comparable to the end of the Franco-Prussian War of 1870-71. They've signed the peace resolution at Strassbourgh, but have been preparing for World War I since.
All warfare is deception.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @04:59PM
You aren't comparing like. Superiority is a war goal. Ideological differences are fault lines along which a conflict can occur. Having said that, I agree that this conflict isn't ideologically driven.
But I don't agree that Russia can cooperate with China to the extent you describe. After all, it's only now when their war effort is in a dire strait that those experienced troops are being moved to Ukraine. That indicates to me considerable lack of trust in China.
If Russia falls into chaos as a result of this, I wouldn't be surprised to see China nibble a little at Russian territory - in support of the Ukrainians, of course.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Monday September 26 2022, @06:12AM (2 children)
Warning: all links direct from the horse's mouth, that is .globaltimes.cn
The fact that Xi has now Russia's resources for cheaps (or for chips [globaltimes.cn] if you like it better), as the prices for the Russia's gas are going to go into free fall next year.
Opening a conflict with Russia is counterproductive to the Chinese today [globaltimes.cn].
It may happen for the Chinese to walk in, if Russia's flow of cheap resources start to diminish because of a "reckless manager", it will be "just good business sense" to replace him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 28 2022, @03:37AM (1 child)
https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china [ustr.gov]
What's a few billion between friends(?) Russia and China?
Not much compared with China trade with USA:
3/4 million USA'ins supported by the trade with China. Compare with the population of the whole western region of Russia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Far_East#Population [wikipedia.org]
> Given the vast territory of the Russian Far East, 6.3 million people translates to slightly less than one person per square kilometer, making the Russian Far East one of the most sparsely populated areas in the world.
China's won't get too excited about trading with their Russian neighbors.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Wednesday September 28 2022, @04:05AM
The dynamics of the things are the one telling more of the story of what you can expect in the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoFiw2jMy-0
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @08:01AM (7 children)
I've noticed that runaway has been downmodded strongly. Mod points aren't there to express your feelings though.
Anyway, I think that his downmods are unfair: he makes several interesting points which should be answered far better than with claiming he's a Russian shill.
Take, for example, the point he makes about the risk of nuclear war/retaliation. How effective are our own missile defenses against such an event? Will those defenses cover Eastern Europe, Western Europe, or only the United States? Or nobody? And in response: would it be better to respond with convential weapons instead of ICBMs? After how many kilotons does the probability of nuclear winter reach a non-acceptable threshold? What is that probability?
Similarly, about the cost of war, and the effects of inflation. How big will those costs be in 6 months? a year? 5 years? How will the economy [need to] change? What about popular support? How many Americans actually support the war in Ukraine? What price are Americans willing to pay? How much funding are they willing to give to weapons for Ukraine? to Taiwan?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday September 23 2022, @12:39PM
His presentation is one-sided. It doesn't discuss the risk of nuclear war in an appeasement scenario. I think that's even worse in the long term.
For anyone confident in this strategy, keep in mind that it worked due in huge part to the glaring incompetence of the Russians. A better executed, better supplied strategy might well have ended the war in a few weeks with the Russians well positioned to execute the strategy again anywhere from Finland south to Turkey.
Consider also a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. China can afford a great deal of incompetence and still capture Taiwan easily (depends on how the US responds). I do find it disturbing how they're policing [bbc.com] discussion of the war in a way that supports the Russian side. Pro-Ukrainian viewpoints are being suppressed. That may mean that they're steering long term public discourse to support an invasion of Taiwan.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @02:32PM (4 children)
That is just pro-Russian propaganda and everyone has the idea of nukes in mind. There is no point in discussing niclear options because that would be MAD. Runaway has been a pro-Russian stooge at least since Don the Con and his GOP cronies became Putin's #1 fans. Whine if you'd like, Runaway has made his positions very clear.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @02:42PM (3 children)
So you're saying that the best policy is to keep my eyes shut stiff and put fingers in my ears? I've tried doing that but nearly got overrun by a tank.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @05:43PM (2 children)
No, the best policy is for you to not be so naive. Runaway has been shilling for Russia long enough for anyone who has been paying attention to see for themselves. Any more questions?
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @08:27AM (1 child)
Yes, and quite a lot. For your convenience I've summed them up already in my original post.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday September 25 2022, @10:11PM
And you need to learn what JAQing off is (if you haven't already), especially when no one you are asking could possible answer your alleged question.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday September 26 2022, @04:10AM
That's an opinion.
However, it's one with which I disagree.
That said, I haven't downmodded Runaway in this journal entry.
Everyone should just read at -1 and the mods don't matter WRT visibility.
And that's my opinion. Feel free to disagree.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @02:38PM (8 children)
It is predicted that a coalition of right-wing parties will win this weekend's elections in Italy. While they've been very careful to claim to support EU sanctions against Russia, one of them couldn't resist shooting his mouth off [brusselstimes.com].
Combined with the Republicans carrying Congress after the next elections, this doesn't bode well for keeping up support for Ukraine.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 23 2022, @03:39PM (7 children)
The current crop of sanctions seems much more oriented on helping Putin keep his cannon fodder from running away, than on really hitting him and his where it would hurt.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Friday September 23 2022, @05:25PM (6 children)
How so?
(Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday September 24 2022, @03:00AM (5 children)
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @05:08AM (4 children)
Some countries are banning Russian "visitors", but the BBC reports that Germany is inviting all to apply (with screening naturally). Finland and Georgia also seem to be accepting many "draft dodgers", with long traffic jams at border crossings.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @12:12PM (3 children)
The coordinated border closure for Russians by Poland and the Baltic states (leaving only Finland which wanted the same but failed to make a run-around their constitution in time) was on September 19th. Putin's mobilization order was written on September 20th. One hell of a coincidence, isn't it?
Also remember the VISA and MasterCard sanctions. Do you believe it is Putin or his cronies who need these things for paying for their living outside Russia?
A number of other things working for the same apparent goal can be pointed out too, besides these most glaring examples.
(Score: 2) by quietus on Saturday September 24 2022, @03:26PM (2 children)
The Baltic states have been unwilling to accommodate incoming Russians since begin summer. Their reasoning is simple: if you only started running in June/July, that means you were all OK with the invasion in the months before, and we simply don't want you to mingle with the genuine war/political refugees (apart from you being a possible member of a fifth column). Finland already saw an average of 3000 cars a day pass the border in the preceding months -- the night of the 21st that peaked to 4500; I haven't heard about amending the constitution for an additional 1500 cars.
The Visa and Mastercard blockade had indeed to do with Putin and relatives e.g. Medvedev's son: in March the visa/mastercard blockade, in June he reappears in Moscow, after having lived in the US. He could have safely hopped from country to country on tourist visas, but my guess is the money was gone, and he had to return.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday September 24 2022, @06:58PM (1 child)
You are misinformed; it started at the end of July, out of the blue. And "reasoning", ANY reasoning, does nothing to explain the coincidence of the dates. Had the EU politicians known Putin's plans to the day, months in advance, seemingly before Putin himself? HOW had they known? WHY had they been inventing strange "reasons" instead of telling the world of the mobilization plans if they had known?
As to Medvedev's son, it is PERSONAL sanctions' doing. Or do you really believe he didn't have bank accounts outside Russia? Really?
Taken together, your "counter" misses the mark by several Earth orbit diameters.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday September 25 2022, @02:58AM
I think you know the answer to that. If Putin didn't know, then they wouldn't either.