Transportation accounts for a huge portion of US carbon emissions. As recently as 2014, it was behind the electricity sector — 26 percent of US emissions to electricity's 30 percent. But as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) just confirmed, as of 2016, they have crossed paths. "Electric power sector CO2 emissions," EIA writes, "are now regularly below transportation sector CO2 emissions for the first time since the late 1970s."
This is happening because power sector "carbon intensity" — carbon emissions per unit of energy produced — is falling, as coal is replaced with natural gas, renewables, and efficiency.
The only realistic prospect for reducing transportation sector emissions rapidly and substantially is electrification. How much market share EVs take from oil (gasoline is by far the most common use for oil in the US) will matter a great deal.
[...] Today saw the release of a new study from the Grantham Institute for Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel's ass, quickly.
"Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology," they conclude, "could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020." That would be a pretty big deal.
The "business as usual" (BAU) scenarios that typically dominate these discussions are outdated, the researchers argue. New baseline scenarios should take into account updated information on PV, EV, and battery costs. (The EIA doesn't expect inflation-adjusted prices of EVs to fall to $30,000 until 2030, even as multiple automakers say they'll hit that within a few years.)
[...] If these forecasts play out, fossil fuels could lose 10 percent market share to PV and EVs within a decade. A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors. "Growth in EVs alone could lead to 2 million barrels of oil per day being displaced by 2025," the study says, "the same volume that caused the oil price collapse in 2014-15."
Source: http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:22AM
> The only realistic prospect for reducing transportation sector emissions rapidly and substantially ...
... is to raise gasoline prices high enough in USA that people stop driving around solo in 2+ ton giant SUVs and trucks.
In the same way that household electric usage has dropped with high efficiency light bulbs and appliances, driving smaller, higher mileage cars could have the same effect on transportation energy usage.
For apartment dwellers and many other use cases, electric cars are not yet at an acceptable level of convenience.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:21AM
Yes. City-dwellers at least could double their gas mileage by switching to hybrid vehicles. We don't because gas is cheap.
(Score: 2) by Magic Oddball on Saturday February 04 2017, @11:00AM
Maybe you don't switch to hybrid because gas is cheap, but most people I know haven't done so because hybrids cost too much — either in general, when recent/efficient enough for the person's use case, or when recent/durable enough to be expected to serve the family (original owner & 1-2 younger/poorer drivers) for a decade or more.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday February 04 2017, @02:58PM
Bingo. YOu've nailed the biggest problem with electric and hybrid vehicles. You CAN'T charge them to capacity quickly.
The battery manufacturers, and car makers, claim to be making progress. But, there is no way you can charge a battery in five to fifteen minutes. If you drive into a charging station on the last few ergs of energy in your battery, you can plan on being there for hourse.
Closely related to that minor little problem, is range. For me, minimum range is 200 miles. That would be sufficient to take me to work, one round trip, and if I decide that just HAVE to stop in one of the nearby towns for business, I would have a nice cushion. 100 mile round trip to work, plus an extra fifty miles to go out of my way, and a fifty mile cushion, because the math is sometimes not quite right.
As things stand right now, taking an electric vehicle cross country would be an exercise in futility. It would make more sense to have battery changing stations, where you could pull in, swap out the battery in ten minutes, then go on your way. Except - you're likely to trade off a great battery, for a worn out POS that won't get you to the next battery station.
We've got a ways to go before electric takes over the market.
(Score: 2) by mhajicek on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:08PM
Many well established families have two vehicles, often optimized for different purposes. It makes sense to have a little commuter vehicle alongside a larger less efficient one such as a van or truck.
The spacelike surfaces of time foliations can have a cusp at the surface of discontinuity. - P. Hajicek
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:50PM
Actually, there is a way, but it involves exchanging batteries. Either that, or using flow batteries which, as far as I know, are only viable in fixed installations. (They tend to be a LOT larger.) Unfortunately, there's no easy way to tell the charge capacity of a battery, so people are reluctant to accept the exchange approach, though I understand an Israeli taxi company used it, so if it became cheap/common enough there could be lots of business cases. (Just keep a pool of spare batteries.)
But I don't expect this to take off. Being possible doesn't mean it's likely to be adopted.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by FakeBeldin on Saturday February 04 2017, @09:25PM
This reminds me of an old pre-cell phone mobile phone network I saw back in the 80s. It used antennas that had been placed at specific points, mostly gas stations. I remember thinking that this would never scale - you'd need antenna's everywhere to get decent coverage!
.... So that's basically what happened.
The charging problem sounds very similar. A trivial way to solve it is if you could swap your car's batteries at a "gas" station for fully loaded batteries. That's probably not what'll win out in the end, but there are solutions which make electric vehicles feasible, e.g. charging at work. If every work place can easily charge all the EVs coming in, then your range anxiety is vastly diminished. By the time you leave the office, the batteries will be full again.
On another note: EVs cost too much is of course just another way of stating "gas is too cheap".If gas prices shoot above $20 a gallon, EVs (and small, efficient cars) will become a lot more popular.
(Score: 3, Informative) by Thexalon on Saturday February 04 2017, @03:13PM
Consumer Reports begs to differ [consumerreports.org]: If you look at the listings, you'll see that hybrids stack up quite well against other cars in terms of cost.
The real issue is a psychological one: Hybrids have a higher up-front expense, while being cheaper to run because they require about half the gas of gasoline-only cars. The thing is, when car shopping, it's easy to see "whoa, that hybrid is $3K more than an equivalent gas-only car", but not easy to see that "after 5 years, that extra cost will have paid for itself in gas savings".
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 1) by Oakenshield on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:20PM
My experience begs to differ. My car is 14 years old and I have years of spreadsheet data on my driving mileage and gasoline prices. While looking to replace my car a few years ago I looked at hybrids and the cost delta over gasoline-only models meant that - for my average driving - gasoline would have to stay well over $4 per gallon to pay foritself by the end-of-life of the car. I didn't even factor in the cost of replacing the batteries. I still haven't pulled the trigger, but unless hybrids are a lot cheaper now, it wasn't worth it. I'm looking at plugin hybrids now and that might work out to be a good deal, especially with tax credits and the fact that my work has a free charging station, but running the numbers is difficult since I really don't know how many kWh I would use.
Newer gas-only cars are pretty fuel efficient these days, making the mileage delta for hybrid drivetrains less cost effective. I don't see any vehicles that double their mileage by adding hybrid drivetrains. Last summer, I rented a Hyundai Sonata (gas only) to take on vacation. The mileage we got was much better than my girlfriend's Camry Hybrid of approximately the same size. The Hyundai also had considerably more storage space in the trunk.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:56PM
Your anecdata doesn't really mean anything without the number of miles you drive per year.
(Score: 2) by mcgrew on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:02PM
That doesn't apply to me; I quit buying new cars in the 1980s when my two month old Volkswagon's alternator went out ninety miles from home. Also, since that means I'm buying an older, cheap car I can pay for it with a credit card rather than an auto loan, so only have to pay for liability insurance. Car gets totaled? Just buy another one.
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:31PM
I've never bought a car new either, and probably never will, but I think it's vitally important to understand how the numbers work. And it's true with used cars too: My current hybrid (which typically gets 45-50 mpg) cost a bit more to buy than a non-hybrid with similar mileage would have, but has already paid for the extra cost in savings on gas.
The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
(Score: 3, Touché) by TheRaven on Saturday February 04 2017, @04:46PM
Maybe you don't switch to hybrid because gas is cheap, but most people I know haven't done so because hybrids cost too much
Why do you think those are different reasons? Hybrids are not cheap in absolute terms, they are cheap relative to the cost of buying and running a pure-ICE vehicle. Either the cost of the hybrid going down or the cost of the ICE vehicle going up will alter this balance.
sudo mod me up
(Score: 2) by TheRaven on Saturday February 04 2017, @04:48PM
sudo mod me up
(Score: 2) by FakeBeldin on Saturday February 04 2017, @09:29PM
Hybrids cost too much only when gas is cheap. If gas is expensive enough, hybrids and / or EVs become the more economic option.
(Score: 2) by Sulla on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:52PM
Currently I drive a truck because I do woodworking as a hobby and I'm not going to deal with strapping wood to the top of a hybrid every weekend. My wife has a minivan because of kids. When it comes down to it even if around town my wife's van will get better gas mileage, it is a shitty ride, dangerous, and has assloads of problems (2012 dodge caravan with 50k miles).
Trucks have been improving greatly in the mpg area. My 13 got 15 city and 19 highway (f150 single cab longbed v8) and my 16 gets 15 city and 20/25 highway (f150 supercab longbed v8). I imagine I will get another in a few years when they go hybrid.
Electric cars will susceed as they match the users way of life, not because users are forced to change their way of life. Some concessions are acceptable, but I am not going to bottom out my vehicle when I go shooting, or strap wood on the top, or tow with a caravan.
Ceterum censeo Sinae esse delendam
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @10:57PM
http://www.viamotors.com/vehicles/electric-truck/ [viamotors.com]
"The eREV powertrain by VIA enables larger vehicles, including vans and light trucks, to drive the first 40 miles in all-electric mode with near zero emissions, and a full range of 400 miles on a single fill-up. For most drivers, this means up to 100 mpg in typical local daily driving. It’s exciting to drive — with more low-end torque. The electric truck performs as well as or better than the comparable gas version."
See also a blocky electric van outrace a Ferrari:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQn9DLOQWZg [youtube.com]
And:
http://www.alternative-energy-news.info/nissan-e-nv200-electric-minivan/ [alternative-energy-news.info]
So, even if these may not be good enough for everyone, they are good enough for more and more people.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @11:12PM
So, even if these may not be good enough for everyone, they are good enough for more and more people.
That is the key. You don't have to replace all sales to push the market off a fiscal cliff. As the article says, even just a 10% drop in demand can cause major disruption. So far, projections for "green tech" over the last decade have woefully under predicted the reality. Betting against that trend wouldn't be smart.
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:25AM
Live alone, have a gas car. A couple times a year I take road trips. I can fill my tank in 5 minutes. If an electric car can't charge in, call it 10 minutes, I'm not gonna be buying one.
That said, for 90% of my driving an electric would be fine. Except, oops, my apartment complex has nowhere to plug my car into. I guess I could shop at Kohl's for a couple hours a week, but why would I do that except to charge my car?
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Ethanol-fueled on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:36AM
You can pry my manual transmission from my cold, dead hands, motherfucker.
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:44AM
I actually went auto tranny (fun fact: lots of websites convert t r a n n y into something else) when I bought my current car. Can't say I miss it. Drove manuals since '74, when I turned 16 and dad trained me on his Subaru. Last time I nailed the brakes was maybe 5 years ago. Coming up to a red light, went to downshift, left foot floored the brakes, glad the guy behind me didn't read end me.
Yeah, there are times I miss my manual. But driving in stop and go traffic with my coffee in one hand and my phone in the other, I'm good.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday February 04 2017, @03:06PM
That's funny.
I've been driving just a couple years longer than you. I learned on manuals - everything from farm tractors, and hay trucks, to family cars, to tractor trailers. Naturally, I've swapped from auto to manual many times. I can't count the times I've climbed into an automatic vehicle, and stomped on the clutch. I've never hit the brakes though - I just stomp a dent in the floor where the clutch should have been. You can imagine the looks I've got from passengers. ;^)
(Score: 3, Insightful) by mcgrew on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:07PM
But driving in stop and go traffic with my coffee in one hand and my phone in the other, I'm good.
Yes, you probably do so when you're drunk, as well, because using a cell phone while driving is as dangerous as driving drunk. You, sir, are an idiot, as is everyone else who uses a phone while driving. Leave the damned phone in your pocket. If you absolutely MUST use it, get off the highway and stop the damn car first. Stop endangering everyone else with your rank stupidity.
mcgrewbooks.com mcgrew.info nooze.org
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday February 05 2017, @03:19PM
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @08:24PM
:-) I hope you burn your balls and get brain cancer!
But seriously, the weather... The left foot is for the clutch and the brights only. It should never be even near the brakes. (Not that you have much choice in an Italian car...And there's a special place in hell for those who teach left foot braking). The new automatics can be operated semi-manually now. They are totally hip.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:51AM
One of each -- live in the 'burbs and have two older cars. One a manual and the other automatic, choose the right tool for the job.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:30AM
If an electric car can't charge in, call it 10 minutes, I'm not gonna be buying one.
Your fault for being stupid, I guess. Your car sits around doing absolutely nothing all night long when it could be charging. But its the experience man! If you aren't standing there hand-feeding it electricity, its just not american!!!
Except, oops, my apartment complex has nowhere to plug my car into.
So? The only thing stopping them from providing chargers is a lack of demand.
Once there are enough electrics on the road, the demand to equip apartment parking with chargers will fix that.
It isn't like people will have to charge every day, new model electrics get 200+ miles per charge and over half of the commutes in the US are less than 20 miles round-trip, so charging once a week is more than enough.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:42AM
You don't get the apartment market. They ain't ever gonna offer electric charging unless they can advertise "Electric car Charging!!" In which case they will offer 1 charging station and bump the rent up 50% for all 100 units in the apartment complex.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 0, Disagree) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:45AM
It isn't like people will have to charge every day
You have not been around other people much have you? At one apt complex we ended up having to have assigned spaces because some people would just park across 3 and call it a day. Or have 8 cars and go 'what? they are free I pay for the rent'. You think there wouldnt be people camped out at the outlets?
over half of the commutes in the US are less than 20 miles round-trip
The other half are not. I know at least a few dozen people that commute 80+ miles per day just to have a job.
You are making excuses. Look right now today (not in the future, right now) there are not enough chargers. The infrastructure of your typical condo complex NOT up to the task of several hundred extra mega watts being used every night. Most of these dudes pitch a fucking fit just giving you better internet access much less 200-300 220v+ electric plugs. Then on the other end most places do not have the things.
Then on top of that most places have this thing called weather. Meaning they will need to be maintained. Having dealt with many landlords fixing something is not at the top of their list unless they are made to do it. Many are an extra special kind of miserly bastard that makes ebinizer scrooge seem like a saint.
If there were chargers everywhere and they were decently fast (10-20 mis tops) and there was 1 gas station in the state I would probably would not get an ICE and say 'it is a dumb thing to get'. But right now it is the other way around.
(Score: 2) by Snotnose on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:47AM
The stupid, it hurst. The copy paste fails big time here.
If an electric car can't charge in, call it 10 minutes, I'm not gonna be buying one.
Your fault for being stupid, I guess. Your car sits around doing absolutely nothing all night long when it could be charging. But its the experience man! If you aren't standing there hand-feeding it electricity, its just not american!!!
I do a road trip wtice a year. Bathroom break, refuel the car, 5 minutes. Electrice is much longer, like an hour. Car is not sitting outside doing nothing, it is transporting me to somewhere to where I wanna be.
Except, oops, my apartment complex has nowhere to plug my car into.
So? The only thing stopping them from providing chargers is a lack of demand.
You have no clue to apartment living, do you? Management doesn't care about charging stations. They care about how fast they can jack up rent. Trust me, they add a charging station and rent will double.
Once there are enough electrics on the road, the demand to equip apartment parking with chargers will fix that.
It isn't like people will have to charge every day, new model electrics get 200+ miles per charge and over half of the commutes in the US are less than 20 miles round-trip, so charging once a week is more than enough.
You are a fucking moron with no idea of the real life situations of people with cars. Kindly fuck off.
When the dust settled America realized it was saved by a porn star.
(Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:59AM
> The stupid, it hurst. The copy paste fails big time here.
Is that a confession? Because yeah, someone who can't even manage to put a ">" character in front of the lines he's quoting has no business screaming his head off that someone else is a "fucking moron."
> Trust me, they add a charging station and rent will double.
No, I'm not going to trust you. You are the one who just confessed to be to being so stupid it "hurst."
Charging stations would be profit centers for apartments. They would charge people money to use them.
> I do a road trip wtice a year.
So rent a gas car you dumbshit. Its only twice a year and you avoid putting a ton of miles on your car.
> You are a fucking moron with no idea of the real life situations of people with cars.
Yeah, because I don't own and drive a car myself.
Lol you really have no business calling anyone a moron.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:22PM
So rent a gas car you dumbshit. Its only twice a year and you avoid putting a ton of miles on your car.
My daily driver is a one and a half ton Yaris commuter vehicle (basically a stripped down Toyota) (which makes me wonder about the original OPs assertion that SUVs are 2+ tons, try more like 4+ tons for a big duallie pickup truck)
Anyway people sometimes freak out about it, but it can carry a hell of a lot more than you'd think, and I rent the home depot pickup truck for $25 or whatever it is about twice a year when I need 100 pound bags of landscaping WTF or bricks or sheets of plywood for a woodworking project. The rent for the truck is about the cost of three days of the car loan payment, insurance, repairs, for buying one of my own, so as long as I rent it less than twice a week I'm ahead financially. They rent it a couple times per day so they're making piles of cash while I'm saving piles.
And my coworker blew the engine of a giant SUV rental in rural nowhere ville Texas and an hour later the rental company had her in a new rental on her way. Imagine if that were her car broken down in the middle of nowhere, the mechanic would screw her so bad it would make bondage pr0n look gentle. Its foolish to take your own car on a road trip.
I can't eat "real food" in less than the time it takes a modern EV to quick charge. I could fast for 16 hours just to make some kind of point, but naaah I don't think so.
You get what you pay for with apartments, I have a SiL who always nickel and dimed and she did save like $50/mo on me, but oh god the complaining I had to hear about her slumlord properties. Someone who can afford a brand new car probably is in the upper reaches of rental economy. Poor renters aren't going to get hand-me-down electrics for a decade or so.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Saturday February 04 2017, @03:36PM
Your figure of 4+ tons didn't sound right. I did a quick search, I'm satisfied with the Ford F-350 as an example. How about 3 tons for a typical one ton dually? 3 3/4 for the extra heavy duty four wheel drive model. Yeah, that's a lot of weight - close to four tons anyway. Most of the cars I've owned in the past 20 years are between 3100 and 3500 pounds. That makes for a huge difference in fuel expenses.
http://www.holidayfordusa.com/blog/how-much-does-the-2016-ford-f-350-weigh/ [holidayfordusa.com]
2016 F-350 XL
Curb Weight 6,010 lbs.
GVWR 10,000 lbs.
GCWR 19,000 lbs.
Towing 12,500 lbs.
Payload 3,920 lbs.
2016 F-350 Lariat
Curb Weight 7,460 lbs.
GVWR 14,000 lbs.
GCWR 19,500 lbs.
Towing 12,100 lbs.
Payload 6,460 lbs.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by charon on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:50AM
This is sort of accurate. As I found out when I bought mine, mileage is important, but so is elevation. Straight line distance from apartment to work is about 3 miles, but I use ~5 miles worth of charge because of hills. Yes, even with regenerative braking at it's highest possible level.
I live in an apartment and park on the street so I have no way to charge except at work. I knew this going into my purchase. Charging overnight would be ideal for me, but like a lot of people it's not possible. The very fastest charging option available to my car would restore ~100 miles of range in an hour, and these are the least common charging points. I concur that increased adoption will also increase charger locations. But we're not there yet.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday February 05 2017, @02:08AM
My commute is 80 miles round trip, and when I left for work this morning, it was about 13 degrees F outside (some of us actually live in places where having heat during the winter is important - heat is free with an ICE, but it's going to drain battery in an EV). I don't have anywhere to charge my car at work, so in a best case scenario, by the time I get home, I have 120 miles left on your proposed 200 mile charge. I live around 100 miles away from my disabled mother and my young nieces. Occasionally, I end up having go there for an unplanned emergency.
Again, in that best case scenario, I just make it there, and then I'm stuck waiting how long for it to charge for the 100 mile ride home? If I don't have enough gas for my ICE, it'll take under 5 minutes to refuel...
I'm single and can afford one vehicle... that vehicle needs to be able to fit my all-purpose, every day needs. Yes, I can (and have) rent a truck for the rare occasion that I'm planning to buy something large at a store, but I need something that I know is going to take care of my unplanned, yet likely, needs.
I'm sure an EV could work for a lot of people, but, instead of calling people stupid, maybe you should realize that you're pretty ignorant yourself?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday February 06 2017, @04:07AM
> My commute is 80 miles round trip
That puts you in the 99% percentile for commuters.
If you think anything about your personal circumstances applies to this conversation then you are more than ignorant and stupid.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:31AM
You can't spare 5 minutes every now and then to help save the planet for future generations? Selfish prick.
(Score: 1) by charon on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:35AM
(Score: 2) by hemocyanin on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:37PM
Two car family -- one gas, one is a 2012 Leaf (which BTW, is way more fun to drive than an econobox deserves to be -- electrics, even puny ones like the Leaf, have zoom). I go as far on 60 cents of electricity as $3 in gas takes me (24 miles).
While I agree that electrics aren't for everyone, it seems the prejudice against them is irrational. 99% of the driving we do can be handled by a low range aging electric car. If I could convince my wife that renting a gas car for the remaining 1% is perfectly feasible -- and for whatever reason, laying out the math which shows it to be a money saver, doesn't work -- we could be all electric.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:08PM
The price on used Leafs has taken a real hit recently. You can find 2 year old leafs with less than 20K miles on them for under $10K. [craigslist.org]
Leafs with 40K mileage are less than $7K. I suspect that's due in part to the Chevy Bolt hitting the market with its 200 mile range. I bet that when the tesla model E comes out later this year it will be another big hit to used leaf prices.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by hemocyanin on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:50PM
Yeah -- if you are the type of person that switches cars frequently, an electric is probably a bad investment at this point because the technology is moving so fast. When I got mine, I consciously decided to think of it more like an electronic gadget than a car, but since I tend to keep my cars for a long time I decided not to be concerned about depreciation and to just be happy with fun driving and extremely low maintenance.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @09:41PM
I meant the reverse.
Used electrics are super affordable. The kind of person who drives a car into the ground is probably totally fine buying used. I'm 15 years in on my isuzu which I bought used. I'm going to try to hold out until fall and see if I can pick up a top-line leaf with leather, bose and surround cameras for under $8K.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by n1 on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:35AM
I've written two long rambles for this story so far, but given up... Short version of what I was trying to get to... It's not about oil.
Electric cars of tomorrow will be the next smartphone... While they have so many bells and whistles and are super 'cool' and have a convenience appeal, we end up with a lot less choice, a lot more bullshit... and we won't really own them or have meaningful control over them by default or legally most likely.
Personal transport is going to be changing for many people over the next few years, and it's going to result in less freedom. Plenty of people who live in big cities already know what this is like, but that shift into relying on a 'transport ecosystem' is coming to the suburbs and beyond pretty soon.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Saturday February 04 2017, @08:00PM
Or, if America is really being made "Great" again (you know, like the 60s and 70s - burning rivers, racial violence, all that great stuff) - then the electric car craze of the 1970s could repeat itself.
Hopefully we're not going back to lead in the gas and asbestos in industrial insulation, but the pendulum is swinging back in that direction. Without a little help on the incentive front (maybe not incentives _for_ electric, maybe just toning down the incentives to continue development and use of oil), electric cars could fizzle out, again - not to make another serious comeback bid for decades.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by frojack on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:24AM
A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors
Wind and solar have accounted for the 10% drop mentioned in the article.
Renewable energy in the United States accounted for 13.44 percent of the domestically produced electricity in 2015, and 11.1 percent of total energy generation.
Says wiki.
EVs have had nothing to do with it with the drop in oil and gas consumption.
It seems to me the rapid increase in EVs are as likely to raise grid demand, perhaps beyond what can be supported.
That might kill oil prices.
But its going to raise natural gas prices.
And its going to raise coal prices in those places that a) have no alternatives, or b) get a handle on carbon capture.
The same net work is going to be done. Same number of cars.
So you shift fuels from one source to the another.
EVs will probably increase gas and coal consumption as they gain significant market share.
We also still have a storage problem with solar and wind. (people charge EVs at night). Even wind power is lower at night.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @08:01AM
>> A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling,
>>
> Wind and solar have accounted for the 10% drop mentioned in the article.
>
> Renewable energy in the United States accounted for 13.44 percent of the domestically
> produced electricity in 2015, and 11.1 percent of total energy generation.
So many ways you are wrong:
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:00PM
http://www.worldcoal.org/file_validate.php?file=Coal%20Facts%202015.pdf [worldcoal.org]
Almost 50% INCREASE since 1990s. We are almost at record production of coal world wide. So, what are you talking about this "10% drop"?? Doesn't stack with reality. The only drop I see is if we start to run out of easily accessible coal!
As for TFS, it's also bullshit.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_motor_vehicle_production [wikipedia.org]
90 MILLION cars produced in 2015. And Increasing. And Tesla?
https://www.tesla.com/factory [tesla.com]
0.1 MILLION cars... It's not even on the radar when it comes to numbers. You have to start somewhere, but it's not a threat to ICE engines. The Giga Factory will not change this picture either!
So there is reality, and then there is wishful thinking. Reality is electric cars are nowhere near displacing ICE cars. Reality is that COAL usage is increasing despite all the agreements (and look further than down your nose at your little patch on this planet). Reality is OIL is at record production. Reality is that NAUTRAL GAS is produced in larger quantities than ever. ALL of it is burned. Reality is we are NOT decreasing worldwide CO2 emissions. Wake the fuck up from your delusions people. You can't change course in a few years by installing a few solar panels and an LED lightbulb.
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC?end=2013&start=1960&view=chart [worldbank.org]
So where is this decrease? Long term it's "business as usual"!! We are not only not decreasing over CO2 emissions, We are increasing PER CAPITA and number of people doubled since beginning of that graph. So in absolute numbers, that chart doubles on the right, which makes it even gloomier.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @11:08PM
Almost 50% INCREASE since 1990s. We are almost at record production of coal world wide. So, what are you talking about this "10% drop"?? Doesn't stack with reality.
You cited a report of the numbers through 2014. That was the top. Since then coal consumption has decreased [instituteforenergyresearch.org] which is why so many coal companies have gone bankrupt in the last year. [reuters.com]
90 MILLION cars produced in 2015. And Increasing. And Tesla?
Its misleading to cite worldwide production numbers when comparing to tesla sales since tesla is primarily just US sales.
US sales are about ~17 million cars per year. [autonews.com]
And why just tesla? Nissan has sold more leafs [insideevs.com] than tesla has sold all models combined.
And now the chevy bolt is on the market.
Frankly the fact that you had all these numbers that were vastly different from the article ought to have been a clue that maybe you weren't talking about the same things. But instead you dived in with the accusation that authors are just lying, oh excuse me "bullshitting." You obviously had an agenda and you were willing to misrepresent in order to push that agenda instead of making an honest point. That's the real bullshit here.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:33PM
The big give-away was when he cited "wiki" but chose to leave out the URL to whatever article he was citing. Frojackoff is so reliably intellectually dishonest that you know he was deliberately hiding something. And, no surprise, he was - the first sentence of the very next paragraph demolished his entire point:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_the_United_States [wikipedia.org]
Renewable energy in the United States accounted for 13.44 percent of the domestically produced electricity in 2015,[2] and 11.1 percent of total energy generation.[3] As of 2014, more than 143,000 people work in the solar industry and 43 states deploy net metering, where energy utilities buy back excess power generated by solar arrays.[4]
Renewable energy reached a major milestone in the first quarter of 2011, when it contributed 11.7 percent of total U.S. energy production
Going from 11.7% to 13.44% is not 10% its less than 2%.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @01:07PM
That might kill oil prices.
If gas prices go up, we'll just burn oil to generate electricity.
EVs will probably increase gas and coal consumption as they gain significant market share.
If you mean from 0 market share? Niche market atm.
(Score: 2) by frojack on Wednesday February 08 2017, @01:29AM
If gas prices go up, we'll just burn oil to generate electricity.
This country has never burned oil to generate electricity. We don't have any generation capacity for that,
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 2) by krishnoid on Saturday February 04 2017, @07:42AM
What will happen to the petrodollar?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @12:19PM
Bye bye Dubai.
(Score: 2) by Dunbal on Saturday February 04 2017, @11:21AM
The law of conservation of energy is rediscovered.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @12:28PM
I heard that the Trumpenstein monster has cancelled that law.