from the neither-long-ago-nor-far-away dept.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/22/blast-from-the-past-vela-satellite-israel-nuclear-double-flash-1979-ptbt-south-atlantic-south-africa/ (may be paywalled; alternate link):
Shortly before sunrise on Sept. 22, 1979, a U.S. surveillance satellite known as Vela 6911 recorded an unusual double flash as it orbited the earth above the South Atlantic. At Patrick Air Force Base in Florida, where it was still nighttime on Sept. 21, the staff in charge of monitoring the satellite's transmissions saw the unmistakable pattern produced by a nuclear explosion—something U.S. satellites had detected on dozens of previous occasions in the wake of nuclear tests. The Air Force base issued an alert overnight, and President Jimmy Carter quickly called a meeting in the White House Situation Room the next day.
Nuclear proliferation was just one of the Carter administration's headaches in late 1979. The president was dealing with a slew of foreign-policy dilemmas, including the build-up to what would become the Iran hostage crisis. Carter was also preparing for a reelection campaign in which he had hoped to showcase his foreign-policy successes, from brokering Israeli-Egyptian peace to successful arms control talks with Moscow. The possibility that Israel or South Africa, which had deep clandestine defense ties at the time, had tested a nuclear weapon threatened to tarnish that legacy. And the fact that South Africa's own nuclear weapons program, which the Carter administration was seeking to stop, was not yet sufficiently advanced to test such a weapon left just one prime suspect: Israel. Leading figures within the administration were therefore keen to bury the story and put forward alternative explanations.
Those alternative explanations were widely dismissed by many members of the scientific and intelligence community at the time; four decades years later, they look even more questionable.
On the 40th anniversary of the Vela event, Foreign Policy has assembled a team of scientists, academics, former government officials, and nonproliferation experts to analyze the declassified documents and data in the public domain, explain the political and strategic objectives of the key players at the time, and argue why a mysterious flash 40 years ago still matters today.
[Ed. Note: Many here may not have experienced what it was like during the cold war with frequent nuclear weapons tests and the ever-present threat of thermonuclear war. Given the increasing rhetoric and sabre rattling going on around the world today, this seemed a good reminder of the past. Let's hope we do not try to repeat it.]
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday September 26 2019, @11:14PM (3 children)
The Khazar jews did it.
(Score: 1, Troll) by Ethanol-fueled on Thursday September 26 2019, @11:39PM (2 children)
Well, the timing and context are rather strange -- Like when Netanyahu tweeted that he and Trump were best buds, and in that tweet was a picture of Ytzak Rabin and John F. Kennedy.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Thursday September 26 2019, @11:46PM (1 child)
Timing? The Israeli army was active at that time in Lebanon, influencing the Lebanese civil war. It doesn't take much imagination to understand that Israel was preparing for another Six Day War scenario, where they would whip the asses of five, six, even twelve different enemy militaries.
(Score: 2) by driverless on Friday September 27 2019, @10:34PM
It may not take much imagination for that, but it takes a helluva lot of imagination to turn the Vela incident into "America Caught a Nuclear Violator Red-Handed". After decades of arguing, the end of the cold war, and declassification of a ton of surrounding material, it's still up for debate what it was that was detected. At the time, there was no indication that anyone had been caught red-handed, or even that it was a nuclear detonation.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Thursday September 26 2019, @11:41PM (13 children)
Israel is not a signatory to any arms proliferation treaties. Israel has acted often enough to prevent the proliferation of arms in the mideast, but they have never signed onto any agreements to limit nuclear or other arms. The implication in the title that Israel "violated" agreements or some such? Not sure whose spin that was, but it's just spin.
Bit of trivia: I was on active duty at a crypto station at the time this happened. My security clearance was only "secret" - no "top secret" or higher. Despite rubbing elbows with the very people who knew the most about this incident, I heard not one word from them. Only in hindsight was I able to explain their heightened excitement. Fekkin' spooks!
(Score: 5, Informative) by KilroySmith on Friday September 27 2019, @12:09AM (3 children)
>>> Israel is not a signatory to any arms proliferation treaties.
Agreed. The problem is that (from TFA):
"In 1976, 1977, and 1994, U.S. senators succeeded in securing legislation known as the Symington and Glenn amendments. These laws banned U.S. foreign, financial, or military assistance to any countries—apart from the five nuclear weapons states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—that acquired uranium enrichment or nuclear reprocessing technologies or who set off a nuclear device. "
and the US's unwillingness to follow it's own laws. It's not that Israel violated an APT - its that they tested a nuclear weapon after we'd passed these laws, and we didn't stop "foreign, financial, or military assistance" to Israel.
(Score: 5, Informative) by PartTimeZombie on Friday September 27 2019, @12:39AM (2 children)
The US has a history of ignoring its own laws.
When el-Sisi overthrew the democratically elected government of Egypt the US declared it "not a coup" and continued to provide weapons to Egypt, despite that being against the Foreign Assistance Act.
I am sure that the US ignored this nuclear test and pretended it was swamp gas or whatever because Israel is their Middle East ally, and the Apartheid regime in South Africa was a very reliable anti-Communist force, and anti-communism is the cornerstone of US foreign relations.
(Score: 3, Touché) by fustakrakich on Friday September 27 2019, @01:46AM (1 child)
The US has a history of ignoring its own laws.
That's because we're Americans dammit!
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday September 27 2019, @05:32PM
It's because some are more equal than others.
Both countries, individuals, and that most important class of people: corporations
What doesn't kill me makes me weaker for next time.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @12:17AM (3 children)
I talked to a retired Marine aircraft tech trainer about Groom lake and Area 51. He buttoned up tight and didn't say a word. Not one word.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Friday September 27 2019, @12:37AM (1 child)
Even at a crypto station, Marines are special. The Marine won't even admit that he's a cryptologist. Sailors will tell you which kind of cryp-tech they are, and they might tell you stuff that isn't classified. Not likely, but they might. The Marines never admitted that they had cryptology training, or what kind of training, or anything. One might believe that the Marines were just armed guards, and nothing more.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Friday September 27 2019, @01:49AM
One might believe that the Marines were just armed guards, and nothing more.
Chauffeurs, no? I mean, they are Navy...
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @02:16AM
So either it is just a testing ground for "boring" experimental aircraft or we will be overrun by extraterrestrials and that guy kept quiet about it.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @12:56AM
Ok, rape then. Non-statutory not legalized rape.
Is your sense of pedantry satisfied now?
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Friday September 27 2019, @02:00AM (1 child)
Stories after the fact - met a man who was an ex F4 pilot for the Israeli Air Force, he and his fellow pilots, in their early 20s, would go out drinking all night then report for duty the following mornings - flying their F4's hung over and not quite lucid, radio chatter like: "who are we bombing, again?" "No, no, not today, we're not actually bombing anyone today, safeties ON!"
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday September 27 2019, @05:35PM
That probably puts the fear of God into their enemies.
What doesn't kill me makes me weaker for next time.
(Score: 2) by Bot on Friday September 27 2019, @12:53PM
Signing no treaties and pushing for enforcement by others is not a justification, it is a sign of hypocritical realpolitik. Yes this makes TFT and TFS technically wrong, but the behavior was still quedtionable among allies, in a time when you are potentially provoking a nuclear crisis of fatal consequences should some "pacifist" Soviet country misunderstand and retaliate with his own missiles. They clearly did not care for Jimmy, so they put him in potential trouble. But, since as we all know conspiracies are not possible and governments always tell the truth and blah blah, none of this ever happened. Must have been some thunderbolt.
Account abandoned.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday September 27 2019, @05:30PM
An extra +1 for you.
What doesn't kill me makes me weaker for next time.
(Score: 0, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @01:28AM
Israel's Top Protectors Are Both U.S.A. and Russia.
https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Putin-says-Israel-is-a-Russian-speaking-state-602333 [jpost.com]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_language_in_Israel [wikipedia.org]
It is not just
greatoverhelming number of politicians in actual power in USA have dual citizenship with Israel, thus their interests and loyalty are somewhat questionable, but even Putin owned a personal property in Israel himself. I ceased to believe a conflict between Russians and American is real long time ago. Everything about this planet is just a scripted theater. Follow the money.(Score: 3, Interesting) by The Mighty Buzzard on Friday September 27 2019, @03:37AM (6 children)
Turned out pretty well last time without any nukes actually flying. Saber rattling alone never killed anyone and the idea of really using nukes is scary as hell to anyone who isn't bug-fuck crazy.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @05:21AM (1 child)
> ..bug-fuck crazy.
Trump already told us he's pussy-grabbing crazy. I'm worried.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Friday September 27 2019, @11:02AM
Being as we don't collect or go looking for that kind of info and you're posting AC, I have no idea how old you are. But you're likely old enough that you should have learned the phrase "talking shit".
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @05:45AM (3 children)
We were goddamn lucky, is all. Thank goodness JFK was not dumb enough to listen to the Joint Chiefs in 1962 and invade Cuba like they wanted. Thank goodness that in 1983, Stanislav Petrov was not dumb enough to be unable to tell the difference between glitches in the early warning system and a true nuclear attack. I for one don't relish the thought of going back to those times when the fate of the world lay in the ability of a guy like Petrov to distinguish between a real attack and 99 red balloons going by.
It also seems far less certain today than it was during the Cold War that all the nuclear powers aren't bug-fuck crazy.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Friday September 27 2019, @11:04AM (2 children)
You and I experienced the cold war very differently then.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @04:05PM (1 child)
some of the powers being "unpredictably" bug-fuck crazy would have probably been a more accurate turn of phrase.
(Score: 4, Interesting) by The Mighty Buzzard on Friday September 27 2019, @04:35PM
Very few citizens of the primary movers died (almost exclusively spies, politicians, and traitors) and not one city got nuked. I'd say the leadership of the nuclear powers involved had sanity in spades to keep from letting the cold war turn hot. Not acting as you'd have done does not make them insane. Allowing a communist nuclear superpower who thinks they're at war with you to forcibly coopt nation after nation because they scare you most certainly does though.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by inertnet on Friday September 27 2019, @08:15AM (1 child)
In a nuclear war, Europe would have been turned into a battleground. So us Europeans probably worried at least as much as you Americans did.
(Score: 3, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Friday September 27 2019, @10:38AM
In a nuclear war, both areas would have been turned into glass. So no need to worry about it. There would be no need to battle.
The only battle would be any hapless survivors scavenging for food and trying to get on a boat to Libya as refugees.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by khallow on Friday September 27 2019, @12:24PM (1 child)
(Score: 2) by All Your Lawn Are Belong To Us on Friday September 27 2019, @04:17PM
Makes me curious as to what was detected seismically and what would have been detected if a nuclear explosion had happened or not. I know that for underground detonations seismic data is always part of the confirmation process, but not so much either ocean and/or airbursts.
This sig for rent.