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[...] The team used a mathematical model to simulate these epidemic patterns for each of the 20 most common types of enterovirus.
To build the model, they used Japanese enterovirus surveillance data. Japan keeps incredibly detailed information on enterovirus outbreaks, and the team used 14 years' worth of information to build the model (from 2000-2014).
They then tested the model, and found that it was able to predict subsequent outbreaks in 2015 and 2016 for most types of enterovirus.
Source: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/08/180824090618.htm
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Viral Outbreaks Could be Predicted Two Years in Advance by Mathematical Model
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Cleanse area thoroughly before applying.
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @10:45AM (2 children)
I can do a lot better than that for predicting local Viral Outbreaks, all I need are the latest copies of the itineraries of the cruise ships which visit our fair town...
Ship visits, 1..3 weeks later, without.fucking.fail¹ some sort of viral outbreak (including one mentioned in TFA, hand-foot-and-mouth disease, surely merely coincidental that it hadn't been recorded here for decades and this outbreak just happened in the weeks following the disembarkation of a boatload of Chinese tourists, apparently it's a major health problem there).
Fucking Plague ships..
¹ I was keeping informal notes, did so for a couple of years. I tried getting one of the local Universities interested in formally investigating this by passing them on, but apparently no-one wants to upset the 'Tourist Economy'...
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @12:24PM
Our fairy town? San Francisco?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 26 2018, @07:47PM
One of the local elementary school districts actively tells the teachers to ask the children about their vacations. They then use that information to estimate how sick kids will be and how many substitutes they will need. It is amazing how accurate they can be. For example, a family went on a 1.5 week cruise for their Winter Break. So, before the break even started, the school scheduled the room for disinfection at the end of every day. What do you know, by the end of the next week each and every kid in the class had at least one absence, but that particular disease didn't spread outside the class.