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Transportation accounts for a huge portion of US carbon emissions. As recently as 2014, it was behind the electricity sector — 26 percent of US emissions to electricity's 30 percent. But as the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) just confirmed, as of 2016, they have crossed paths. "Electric power sector CO2 emissions," EIA writes, "are now regularly below transportation sector CO2 emissions for the first time since the late 1970s."
This is happening because power sector "carbon intensity" — carbon emissions per unit of energy produced — is falling, as coal is replaced with natural gas, renewables, and efficiency.
The only realistic prospect for reducing transportation sector emissions rapidly and substantially is electrification. How much market share EVs take from oil (gasoline is by far the most common use for oil in the US) will matter a great deal.
[...] Today saw the release of a new study from the Grantham Institute for Imperial College London and the Carbon Tracker Initiative. It argues that solar photovoltaics (PV) and EVs together will kick fossil fuel's ass, quickly.
"Falling costs of electric vehicle and solar technology," they conclude, "could halt growth in global demand for oil and coal from 2020." That would be a pretty big deal.
The "business as usual" (BAU) scenarios that typically dominate these discussions are outdated, the researchers argue. New baseline scenarios should take into account updated information on PV, EV, and battery costs. (The EIA doesn't expect inflation-adjusted prices of EVs to fall to $30,000 until 2030, even as multiple automakers say they'll hit that within a few years.)
[...] If these forecasts play out, fossil fuels could lose 10 percent market share to PV and EVs within a decade. A 10 percent loss in market share was enough to send the US coal industry spiraling, enough to cause Europe's utilities to hemorrhage money. It could seriously disrupt life for the oil majors. "Growth in EVs alone could lead to 2 million barrels of oil per day being displaced by 2025," the study says, "the same volume that caused the oil price collapse in 2014-15."
Source: http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/2/2/14467748/electric-vehicles-oil-market
(Score: 1) by Oakenshield on Saturday February 04 2017, @05:20PM
My experience begs to differ. My car is 14 years old and I have years of spreadsheet data on my driving mileage and gasoline prices. While looking to replace my car a few years ago I looked at hybrids and the cost delta over gasoline-only models meant that - for my average driving - gasoline would have to stay well over $4 per gallon to pay foritself by the end-of-life of the car. I didn't even factor in the cost of replacing the batteries. I still haven't pulled the trigger, but unless hybrids are a lot cheaper now, it wasn't worth it. I'm looking at plugin hybrids now and that might work out to be a good deal, especially with tax credits and the fact that my work has a free charging station, but running the numbers is difficult since I really don't know how many kWh I would use.
Newer gas-only cars are pretty fuel efficient these days, making the mileage delta for hybrid drivetrains less cost effective. I don't see any vehicles that double their mileage by adding hybrid drivetrains. Last summer, I rented a Hyundai Sonata (gas only) to take on vacation. The mileage we got was much better than my girlfriend's Camry Hybrid of approximately the same size. The Hyundai also had considerably more storage space in the trunk.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday February 04 2017, @06:56PM
Your anecdata doesn't really mean anything without the number of miles you drive per year.