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posted by Fnord666 on Monday August 05 2019, @06:17PM   Printer-friendly
from the getting-warmer dept.

Submitted via IRC for Bytram

July was world's hottest month on record, World Meteorological Organization says

The latest data from the World Meteorological Organization shows the month of July "at least equalled if not surpassed the hottest month in recorded history" — and it followed the hottest June ever, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Thursday.

The UN chief told reporters that "this is even more significant because the previous hottest month, July 2016, occurred during one of the strongest El Niño's ever," which was not the case this year.

An El Niño is a natural warming of the ocean that once it interacts with the atmosphere often warms up the globe and changes rainfall and temperature patterns, making some places wetter and some places drier.

Guterres said the latest weather data, including temperature-shattering records from New Delhi and Anchorage to Paris, Santiago, Adelaide, Australia and the Arctic Circle, means the world is on track for the period from 2015 to 2019 "to be the five hottest years on record."


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  • (Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:25PM (30 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:25PM (#876118)

    See here: https://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/ [drroyspencer.com]

    What data "product" are they using?

    • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:30PM (18 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:30PM (#876124)
      • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:53PM (13 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:53PM (#876133)

        Looks like it is the output of a climate model...

        ERA5 is the fifth generation ECMWF reanalysis for the global climate and weather for the past 4 to 7 decades. Currently data is available from 1979. When complete, ERA5 will contain a detailed record from 1950 onwards. ERA5 replaces the ERA-Interim reanalysis.

        Reanalysis combines observations into globally complete fields using the laws of physics with the method of data assimilation (4D-Var in the case of ERA5). ERA5 provides hourly estimates for a large number of atmospheric, ocean-wave and land-surface quantities. An uncertainty estimate is sampled by an underlying 10-member ensemble at three-hourly intervals. Ensemble mean and spread have been pre-computed for convenience. Such uncertainty estimates are closely related to the information content of the available observing system which has evolved dramatically over time. They also indicate flow-dependent sensitive areas.

        The native resolution of the ERA5 atmosphere and land reanalysis is 31km on a reduced Gaussian grid (Tl639) and 63km (TL319) for the ensemble members. Ocean-wave products are produced at 0.36 degrees and 1 degree for the ensemble. The atmospheric component consists of 137 levels in the vertical from the surface up to 1 Pa (about 80km). This spans the troposphere, stratosphere and mesosphere. There are both analysis fields and short forecast fields that link the assimilation windows used in 4D-Var. A detailed description can be found in the online ERA5 documentation. The full data set resides in the MARS tape archive.

        The data presented here is a post-processed subset of the full ERA5 data set. It is online on spinning disk, which should ensure fast and easy access. It should satisfy the requirements for most common applications.

        Data has been regridded to a regular lat-lon grid of 0.25 degrees for the reanalysis and 0.5 degrees for the uncertainty estimate (0.5 and 1 degree respectively for ocean waves). There are two main sub sets: data on pressure levels and data on single levels. The data on pressure levels contain 16 atmospheric quantities on 37 pressure levels from 1,000 hPa (surface) to 1 hPa (around the top of the stratosphere). Single-level data are available for a number of atmospheric, ocean-wave and land surface quantities.

        Data is available on their hourly (three-hourly) resolution. To facilitate many climate applications, monthly-mean averages have been pre-calculated as well. Though, no monthly means are available for ensemble mean and spread.

        https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means?tab=overview [copernicus.eu]

        They manually choose which data to include:

        Most data selection criteria are coded in so called blacklist files, written in a convenient, readable blacklist language (see the Blacklist Documentation, Järvinen et al., 1996). The blacklist mechanism is very flexible and allows nearly complete control of which data to use/not use in the assimilation.

        https://www.ecmwf.int/en/elibrary/16646-part-i-observations [ecmwf.int]

        I didn't read further, but this "dataset" looks largely made up.

        • (Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:01PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:01PM (#876137)

          I didn't read further, but this "dataset" looks largely made up.

          and I thought it was Illuminati and Globalists? And what about the Chem Trails!!?!?

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:07PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:07PM (#876139)

            Keep fighting the good fight, you are a great help.

          • (Score: 3, Informative) by sjames on Monday August 05 2019, @09:50PM

            by sjames (2882) on Monday August 05 2019, @09:50PM (#876197) Journal

            Clearly it was a fleet of malevolent ice cream trucks all parked so that their exhaust was heating every thermometer in the world. Because it certainly couldn't be because of anything that The chemtrails are just secret signals to help the drivers coordinate.

        • (Score: 5, Interesting) by AthanasiusKircher on Monday August 05 2019, @08:04PM (9 children)

          by AthanasiusKircher (5291) on Monday August 05 2019, @08:04PM (#876158) Journal

          They manually choose which data to include: [...]
          I didn't read further, but this "dataset" looks largely made up.

          I followed your link and skimmed down through the file. There are a couple pages which give details on how the "blacklist" works. They list all sorts of reasons why data is excluded in advance -- things like miscalibrated equipment, new equipment where calibration status is unknown, malfunctioning equipment that provides incomplete data, incomplete datasets with missing header or other info, etc., etc. I'm pretty sure that the majority of criteria for exclusion here are common to almost all lab-collected datasets (at least where the analysts are competent). Hardly reason to claim the dataset is "largely made up."

          Now, there are a few other more ambiguous categories for exclusion. And there are a few reasons for exclusion after analysis has begun -- mostly having to do with solar activity causing biased readings. I honestly don't know enough right now or care enough to learn what all of this is about just to disprove your conspiracy theory that the scientific group the EU has hired is simply cherry-picking data it likes. The burden of proof is on YOU to show that the particular dataset is biased.

          Now I need to go back to other things, rather than wasting time reading a document for an AC on the internet who doesn't want to be bothered to support his own conspiracy theory.

          • (Score: 0, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @08:16PM (2 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @08:16PM (#876163)

            I can't tell you why so I'll just call you wrong and count on my name recognition to carry weight compared to an AC

            • (Score: 3, Insightful) by AthanasiusKircher on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:46AM

              by AthanasiusKircher (5291) on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:46AM (#876293) Journal

              You know what? I'll bite. You know why my "name recognition" sometimes "carries weight"? Because I bother to read stuff and try to contribute thoughtfully to discussion, so sometimes my comments get modded up. I'm sure I spent at least as much time reading that document as the orignal AC (who may or may not be you).

              You want to experience that? Log in and contribute positively to discussion. If you have a reputation for caring and trying to evaluate evidence, rather than cherry picking a sentence that sounds bad out of a long document ("ooh.. blacklist!"), maybe others will pay attention to you. I'm perfectly willing to believe that some climate scientists may be biased and may sometimes -- deliberately or subconsciously -- make decisions that bias their decisions about analysis. Most scientists do sometimes, because they are human.

              But if you're going to assert an entire reputable scientific body is just making up a dataset based on cherry picking, it's up to you to back it up with something beyond a half-assed argument based on a sentence that was pulled out of a document deliberately to be misconstrued.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @03:49PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @03:49PM (#876572)

              You too could benefit from this strategy, you whiner

          • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @09:45PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @09:45PM (#876194)

            Here is what I learned from my experience collecting data: there is always (100% of the time) a legitimate reason to drop any given data point.

            • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @06:13AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @06:13AM (#876355)

              That wasn't data you were collecting. It was stds.

          • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @09:50PM (3 children)

            by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @09:50PM (#876196)

            The burden of proof is on YOU to show that the particular dataset is biased.

            I linked to two separate datasets that agree with each other but not this one showing record high temperatures. Why do they not have to explain why they have the different results?

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:02AM (2 children)

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:02AM (#876279)

              Neither of your sources agree with each other and one of them doesn't have July data. Also, they measure different things.

              • (Score: 0, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:08AM (1 child)

                by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:08AM (#876280)

                They both agree that June was not the hottest June ever, which is the relevant claim in the article... God you retard ACs are so annoying.

                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @05:35AM

                  by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @05:35AM (#876346)

                  No, you just can't read graphs. Here it is in tabular form, where you can't obfuscate: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt [nasa.gov] As you can see, the latest June is the hottest by far. That spike you are claiming is June 2016 is the February and March of that year.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:54PM (3 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:54PM (#876134)

        That only has data until JUNE. Nice try though.

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:00PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:00PM (#876136)

          TFA talks about June as well, it does not match up.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:21AM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:21AM (#876262)

            From 2016: Sorry deniers, even satellites confirm record global warming [thinkprogress.org]:

            If you’re wondering why Spencer plots a 13-month running average when 13 months do not actually correspond to anything relevant to homo sapiens, well, you’ll have to ask him. It is slightly easier to do the math. In any case, here is the more meaningful 12-month running average from Sou at HotWhopper [hotwhopper.com]....

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:37AM

              by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:37AM (#876272)

              And what is your problem with the monthly raw data... and GISTEMP that shows the same thing? The only dataset showing these records is this weird European one no one has heard of before.

    • (Score: 2, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:43PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @06:43PM (#876130)

      Based on the 4 year old peeps I have on my window sill, July was pretty hot. Hot enough for a few of them to soften enough to be eaten.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:05PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 05 2019, @07:05PM (#876138)

        Sorry, your observations don't count unless you work for the government or one of its corporations.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:38AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:38AM (#876290)

        https://archives.erfworld.com/Book+1/15 [erfworld.com]

        Parson, is that you?

    • (Score: 2, Troll) by FatPhil on Monday August 05 2019, @08:15PM (7 children)

      by FatPhil (863) <{pc-soylent} {at} {asdf.fi}> on Monday August 05 2019, @08:15PM (#876161) Homepage
      I think the data comes straight from the IPCC-scarotron. That's 100% reliable, as the IPCC told us so.

      The nice thing about the site you link to is that if you want to sniff into the questions like whether it's the sea warming or the land that's warming (the latter is a better indicator of global warming, as it has more thermal ballast), you can do, as plenty of raw data is there.

      Also the nice thing is that the graph prominantly on that page does clearly show long term slow and steady global warming. Being scientific about things, ooops, sorry, I think you guys call us "skeptics", which you also seem to spell n-a-z-i p-u-p-p-y m-u-r-d-e-r-e-r-s, doesn't mean denying global climate change.
      --
      Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
      • (Score: 3, Informative) by HiThere on Monday August 05 2019, @08:38PM (2 children)

        by HiThere (866) on Monday August 05 2019, @08:38PM (#876176) Journal

        I think you got "sea warming or the land that's warming (the latter ... has more thermal ballast)," backwards. I believe the sea has much more thermal ballast than the land...unless your meaning of "ballast" is one I don't understand.

        --
        Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:26AM

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:26AM (#876268)

          It wouldn't be such a tragedy if that's the only point he got backwards. On a second though, you can discard his whole comment without any loss, so no tragedy at all.

        • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:39AM

          by FatPhil (863) <{pc-soylent} {at} {asdf.fi}> on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:39AM (#876443) Homepage
          Absolute, yes, good catch!
          --
          Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:23AM (3 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @01:23AM (#876265)

        Is there anything of value in your post?
        Seems more like a declaration of "I'm a climate warming skeptic and you are shite if you disagree with me", but maybe you actually made a point I couldn't detect.

        • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @07:10AM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @07:10AM (#876376)

          Ware ist khallow! Und, Eich miss frojack. Best obfuscating climate change denier ever. Wrong, but subtle.

          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday August 06 2019, @09:53AM

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 06 2019, @09:53AM (#876402) Journal

            Ware ist khallow!

            Hi. Is there some reason I should be posting?

        • (Score: 2) by FatPhil on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:52AM

          by FatPhil (863) <{pc-soylent} {at} {asdf.fi}> on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:52AM (#876450) Homepage
          I'm just saying that the accusations against scientifically-minded climate change skeptics is usually demonstrably false (one of the most common ones being so demonstrated instantly upon loading the page linked to, but even that's too much effort for some).

          Note - The above statement says nothing about non-scientifically-minded climate change skeptics, one might even say that those who are sufficiently unscientifically minded don't even deserve the moniker 'skeptic', and yes I do feel the need to emphasise that, as even applying high-school levels of reading comprehension is too much effort for some.
          --
          Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
  • (Score: 1, Troll) by donkeyhotay on Monday August 05 2019, @07:21PM (4 children)

    by donkeyhotay (2540) on Monday August 05 2019, @07:21PM (#876142)

    ...where I live the last few years have been more temperate and milder at both extremes. I know that's purely anecdotal, but actual data is hard to come by, let alone an explanation for the observations. It seems like nobody wants to talk about climate, outside of some political narrative.

    • (Score: 2) by Freeman on Monday August 05 2019, @08:36PM

      by Freeman (732) on Monday August 05 2019, @08:36PM (#876175) Journal

      If it doesn't get them re-elected, they don't care. It's like the teacher telling you what's going to be on the test. The student doesn't care, if it's not on that list.

      --
      Joshua 1:9 "Be strong and of a good courage; be not afraid, neither be thou dismayed: for the Lord thy God is with thee"
    • (Score: 3, Funny) by pipedwho on Monday August 05 2019, @10:14PM (1 child)

      by pipedwho (2032) on Monday August 05 2019, @10:14PM (#876207)

      So true. I have a friend that likes to go down to Bondi beach and surf at 5am every morning. She said she froze her arse off a few weeks ago in (July) as the water was damn cold, and there was a -3 degree (Celsius) wind chill blowing. She works for the government too (office admin at the local bus depot), so surely that holds additional weight. If the world was really warming, how is it that she needed a dry suit just to catch a comfortable morning wave? Seriously, this proves that these climate change reports are all full of crap.

      • (Score: 3, Informative) by c0lo on Tuesday August 06 2019, @03:07AM

        by c0lo (156) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 06 2019, @03:07AM (#876302) Journal

        That's the latest in shark protection for the NSW govt employees: chill the water, no sharks. Unfortunately, they need to dump the heat somewhere, and this year they did it over west Europe.

        --
        https://www.youtube.com/@ProfSteveKeen https://soylentnews.org/~MichaelDavidCrawford
    • (Score: 2) by donkeyhotay on Wednesday August 07 2019, @07:37PM

      by donkeyhotay (2540) on Wednesday August 07 2019, @07:37PM (#877197)

      Responding to my own post because someone mod'd it as "Troll". I don't see how anyone can read what I said as trollish. Who was I trolling? I admitted that my experience was purely anecdotal. I did complain that actual data for my region is hard to come by. Is that "trolling"? How? I literally cannot find any sort of temperature trend for my part of the world from the National Weather Service. If that data is available, where is it? Seriously, the only time I ever see any "data" is from biased articles and such. It's not really data, rather it's more along the lines of, " says about the climate". If it's "trollish" to want to know more about the data, then I would like to know how I am supposed to be even remotely scientific about something.

  • (Score: 1, Troll) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday August 06 2019, @12:04AM (3 children)

    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 06 2019, @12:04AM (#876239) Journal

    If the global warming zealots hadn't pinned their hopes on Al Gore and his hockey stick, some of us wouldn't be so skeptical today. Thanks to Al Gore, we are always looking for the gimmick in the data.

    Thanks to the recent heat wave in Europe, a few million people are primed to believe whatever is thrown at them, regarding imminent doom. Gotta get this stuff out while the audience is paying attention, right?

    --
    “I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
    • (Score: -1, Redundant) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @03:20AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @03:20AM (#876304)

      Ha!

      Well, at least you're now open to realizing the seriousness of what is going on. Al Gore deserves only credit for pushing against the political climate of the time, enduring the endless character attacks and pursuing his quest regardless.

      The "hockey stick" was controversial because the average person is so science illiterate that the "jump" of .5C seemed ludicrous and when zooming out you could hardly see the bump in the data. That .5C was very important, the beginning of this trend we've watched continue unabated.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @07:41AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @07:41AM (#876379)

      It wasn't just Big Al and his vague hockey stick. I have yet to hear a single warmist condemn those 'scientists' whose leaked emails exposed how they plotted to suppress inconvenient data, not because the data was wrong, but because it wasn't, and because it did disagree with their agenda.

    • (Score: 2) by donkeyhotay on Wednesday August 07 2019, @07:48PM

      by donkeyhotay (2540) on Wednesday August 07 2019, @07:48PM (#877201)

      The point about Al Gore is one I have also made. Back in the mid 80's, he chose to turn global warming into a political issue. I lived through that time. Was very much an adult at that time. I remember the speeches, with his screaming and spitting, trying to rally the crowds. Ever seen Al Gore on a rant? He makes Donald Trump look like a milquetoast.

      I don't know; perhaps it was the media's fault. Maybe they just never showed those quiet moments where he reached across the aisle looking for compromise. At any rate, from what I saw, there was never any attempt at compromise. Far too many people were immediately put on the defensive. When you politicize an problem, you tend to lose all hope in solving it.

       

  • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:32AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @02:32AM (#876286)

    Didn't they stop doing nudes then went busted or something?

    • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:14AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:14AM (#876326)

      Kind of. Now they have nude trannies.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:16AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:16AM (#876327)

    I'm usually suspicious of rank as a metric. It comes up a lot when people are comparing the US to various countries. "OMG, we've slipped from 3rd to 11th in that", but if you look at the absolute metric as opposed to rank, we've gone from 93.5 to 92.6. Panic time... not.

    So what if July is the hottest month? What's the granularity? If it's 1C, we're literally baked. If it's 0.1C, cause for concern. If it's 0.01C it takes 100 months to go up 1C--you have 100 chances to be the "hottest month on record" when you've only gone up 1C, whereas if you're talking 0.1C there are far fewer chances so it means more.

    In other words, the number impact and the frequency of 1st rankings depends on the precision of your measure, and that's subject to manipulation, and not terribly meaningful.

    I'm sure the trend is up, but it's trends that matter--not ranks, and absolute trends that matter, not ranking trends because as I said... ranking can be made to look more important than it is, simply by changing the precision.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @06:18AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday August 06 2019, @06:18AM (#876356)

      How will we ever find out? *weeps*

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