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posted by Fnord666 on Friday March 13 2020, @03:54PM   Printer-friendly
from the the-forest-of-a-lifetime dept.

Arthur T Knackerbracket has found the following story:

Large ecosystems, such as the Amazon rainforest, will collapse and disappear alarmingly quickly, once a crucial tipping point is reached, according to calculations based on real-world data.

Writing in Nature Communications, researchers from Bangor University, Southampton University and The School of Oriental & African Studies, University of London, reveal the speed at which ecosystems of different sizes will disappear, once they have reached a point beyond which they collapse -- transforming into an alternative ecosystem.

For example, once the 'point of no return' is reached, the iconic Amazon rainforest could shift to a savannah-type ecosystem with a mix of trees and grass within 50 years, according to the work.

Some scientists argue that many ecosystems are currently teetering on the edge of this precipice, with the fires and destruction both in the Amazon and in Australia.

"Unfortunately, what our paper reveals is that humanity needs to prepare for changes far sooner than expected," says joint lead author Dr Simon Willcock of Bangor University's School of Natural Sciences.

"These rapid changes to the world's largest and most iconic ecosystems would impact the benefits which they provide us with, including everything from food and materials, to the oxygen and water we need for life."

-- submitted from IRC

Gregory S. Cooper, Simon Willcock & John A. Dearing. Regime shifts occur disproportionately faster in larger ecosystems. Nature Communications, 2020 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-15029-x


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  • (Score: 2, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @04:28PM (4 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @04:28PM (#970754)

    Who cares what happens to a bunch of darkies down in beaner America?

    We've got more important things to worry about. Like making sure women don't have control of their bodies and lowering taxes on the rich and big corporations.

    I got my red bull, my Kentucky sourmash and my oxy-codone, and day by day we're making America great again. In fact, we're winning so much I'm actually getting sick of winning.

    If things get much better, I might have to kill myself -- just like many of my compatriots have because things were so great they couldn't handle it any more!

    • (Score: 1) by XivLacuna on Friday March 13 2020, @08:27PM (1 child)

      by XivLacuna (6346) on Friday March 13 2020, @08:27PM (#970850)

      1) People who don't want shit to hit the fan down and then cause an even bigger exodus northward.

      2) Making sure women don't sacrifice babies to Moloch for short term earthly gains is a noble cause. Enough that we'll side with politicians that'll lower taxes on the rich and big corporations. It would be nice if the people who want to tax the rich and big corporations weren't a bunch of Moloch worshipers.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:55AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:55AM (#971150)

        It would also be great if people would just vote for the best policy and not because of a presupposed affiliation to $deity.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:10AM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:10AM (#971000)

      Perhaps you shouldn't post these ironic messages, seems like some dummies think that was actually a real and valid point. I guess it is for racist sociopaths :|

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 16 2020, @03:41AM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 16 2020, @03:41AM (#971780)

        Poe's Law [wikipedia.org] is hard at work, as usual.

        Where's my oxy-codone? And get off my lawn!

  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @04:52PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @04:52PM (#970765)

    Everybody's doin' a brand new dance now
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    I know you'll get to like it if you give it a chance now
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    My little baby sister can do it with ease
    It's easier than learnin' your ABCs
    So, come on, come on, and do the Loco-Motion with me

    You've got to swing your hips now
    Come on
    Jump up
    Jump back
    Oh well, I think you've got the knack

    Woah, woah
    Now that you can do it, well let's make a chain now
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    A chuga-chuga motion like a railroad train, now
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    Do it nice and easy now, and don't lose control
    A little bit of rhythm and a lot of soul
    So, come on, come on, and do the Loco-Motion with me

    Woah, woah
    Move around the floor in a loco-motion
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    Do it holdin' hands if'n you get the notion
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    There's never been a dance that's so easy to do
    It even makes you happy when you're feelin' blue
    So, come on, come on, and do the Loco-Motion with me
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    So, come on, come on, and do the Loco-Motion with me
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    So, come on, come on, and do the Loco-Motion with me
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)
    (Come on baby, do the Loco-Motion)

  • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @04:55PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @04:55PM (#970768)

    TLDR; penis

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @06:04PM (5 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @06:04PM (#970795)

    > These rapid changes to the world's largest and most iconic ecosystems would impact the benefits which they provide us with, including everything from food and materials, to the oxygen and water we need for life.

    The hand of free market capitalism has spoke, these are much more valuable :
    Beef exports
    Palm oil exports
    Mining

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @06:13PM (3 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @06:13PM (#970802)

      Are you not capable of not buying any of the products exported from the Amazon?

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:10PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:10PM (#971210)

        Do you have any idea how hard it is to avoid buying products that aren't problematic in some way? Normal people do not have 40 hours a week to research the impact of what they're doing is. It's a large part of why it's so important that governments set some sort of minimum standards on things like that. The labels themselves don't always differentiate between the way things were produced in a given country.

      • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 15 2020, @09:26AM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday March 15 2020, @09:26AM (#971520)

        are you capable of understanding that a single person's purchasing habits, even if spotless, are not enough?

        some of us actually don't buy palm oil or non-local meat because of exactly this issue (also in NZ for sheep, S.Am for several products, all sources of nonessential products which are costly in petroleum to make, and it'd be great if another Coltran source were found, etc)

        and it's pretty clear to us that the world isn't magically following suit and acting sanely.

    • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:04PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:04PM (#971208)

      Thank God the Democrats are being really smart and rigging the primary in favor of Biden. Because it's so much more important that we prevent the voters from getting a candidate that might do something about the climate than risk having to allow all those voters to get medicare for all and free college.

      Better not risk it, we'll just let the next few generations worry about it, we've got ours, so the hell with them for making the poor decision to be born now rather than what those really smart Boomers did, being born when times were good.

  • (Score: 4, Informative) by Phoenix666 on Friday March 13 2020, @06:12PM (3 children)

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Friday March 13 2020, @06:12PM (#970801) Journal

    Rainforests are not constant. The Amazon has changed over time [wikipedia.org]:

    There is evidence that there have been significant changes in the Amazon rainforest vegetation over the last 21,000 years through the last glacial maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation. Analyses of sediment deposits from Amazon basin paleolakes and the Amazon Fan indicate that rainfall in the basin during the LGM was lower than for the present, and this was almost certainly associated with reduced moist tropical vegetation cover in the basin.[15] There is a debate, however, over how extensive this reduction was. Some scientists argue that the rainforest was reduced to small, isolated refugia separated by open forest and grassland;[16] other scientists argue that the rainforest remained largely intact but extended less far to the north, south, and east than is seen today.

    There is also evidence that the Amazonian basin was much more densely populated (and therefore deforested) in the past than now:

    However, recent anthropological findings have suggested that the region was actually densely populated. Some 5 million people may have lived in the Amazon region in AD 1500, divided between dense coastal settlements, such as that at Marajó, and inland dwellers.[26] By 1900, the population had fallen to 1 million and by the early 1980s it was less than 200,000

    Evidence of prior deforestation and widespread human habitation has been found in geoglyphs (like the Nazca Lines) that would have been created in earlier periods of deforestation, and also:

    Terra preta is found over large areas in the Amazon forest; and is now widely accepted as a product of indigenous soil management. The development of this fertile soil allowed agriculture and silviculture in the previously hostile environment; meaning that large portions of the Amazon rainforest are probably the result of centuries of human management, rather than naturally occurring as has previously been supposed.[32] In the region of the Xingu tribe, remains of some of these large settlements in the middle of the Amazon forest were found in 2003 by Michael Heckenberger and colleagues of the University of Florida. Among those were evidence of roads, bridges and large plazas

    The Wikipedia article linked above shows pictures of those.

    Additional [businessinsider.com] articles [newscientist.com] point up that the Amazon is not a pristine rainforest, but rather:

    Remote sensing [LIDAR] has revealed extensive earthworks, including cities, causeways, canals, graveyards and huge areas of ridged fields that kept crops like manioc, maize and squash clear of floods and frosts.

    Yes, let's do a better job of conserving our natural resources, but let's stop repeating myths for political reasons when scientific evidence has revealed a different picture.

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
    • (Score: 0, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @07:10PM (2 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday March 13 2020, @07:10PM (#970831)

      Because you are more qualified than the entire scientific community (besides those handful of shills that get their money from folks like Exon Mobile).

      Sure thing, whatever you say.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday March 13 2020, @07:57PM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday March 13 2020, @07:57PM (#970838) Journal
        What does the entire scientific community have to do with this study? A better rebuttal would be that current human presence is more than an order of magnitude larger, and it's heavily industrialized to boot. Meaning a far greater environmental perturbation and higher risk of hitting a tipping point.
      • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:53AM

        by Phoenix666 (552) on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:53AM (#971149) Journal

        I cited scientific researchers who have found evidence the Amazon was heavily populated before and much more deforested than it is now.

        You cited...nothing.

        I provided multiple links, with a limited claim.

        You gave an expansive, insulting dismissal and backed it up with nothing.

        Sure thing, whatever you say.

        --
        Washington DC delenda est.
  • (Score: 2) by corey on Friday March 13 2020, @09:18PM (9 children)

    by corey (2202) on Friday March 13 2020, @09:18PM (#970867)

    What can we do about this? How do we convince Brazil to stop logging it?

    I wish the billionaires of this world would get together and buy tens of millions of acres of it to just lock up with armed patrols.

    We can't let this happen.

    I feel like the Amazon is so important to all humanity that most of it that remains should be taken from Brazil and designated an international protected zone. Like international waters, not owned by anybody but in this case, owned by all, like a body corporate owns shared rental property. Then Brazil, which has demonstrated so far that it's incapable of managing such an important asset, can farm, mine and log what it wants on its own land.

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Friday March 13 2020, @09:42PM (1 child)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Friday March 13 2020, @09:42PM (#970873) Journal
      Not much point to doing that, if you can't do better. The same poor people dynamics that prevent Brazil from curbing deforestation would stop most international efforts too - and you'd probably have a hostile Brazilian government to deal with too.
      • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:14PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:14PM (#971211)

        The Brazilian government is ultimately the largest part of the problem. The current administration has been encouraging it and ignoring regulations.

        The best way to solve the problem would be to find ways of cracking down on the import of resources generated by burning down the rainforests while finding ways of helping the local communities profit by preserving the rainforest as they were. Perhaps paying a fee for maintining and a smaller one for restoration efforts. Ecotourism is also often a great option where possible. You give up some measure of what was there originally, but you gain the revenue and resources necessary to preserve a larger section.

    • (Score: 2) by legont on Friday March 13 2020, @11:08PM (4 children)

      by legont (4179) on Friday March 13 2020, @11:08PM (#970911)

      Once upon a time the US cut all her trees to get on top of the world economy. Why would Brazil behave any different?
      This whole green movement is designed to make sure Brazil never develops. Guess what, they not only want to develop, they actually want to lead the world and have the US girls for house help.

      --
      "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Saturday March 14 2020, @05:51PM (1 child)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Saturday March 14 2020, @05:51PM (#971254) Journal

        This whole green movement is designed to make sure Brazil never develops.

        My take is that it's just an unintended consequence - different parts of the world with different interests and concerns.

        Guess what, they not only want to develop, they actually want to lead the world and have the US girls for house help.

        They'll have a long ways before that's possible.

        • (Score: 2) by legont on Saturday March 14 2020, @10:11PM

          by legont (4179) on Saturday March 14 2020, @10:11PM (#971340)

          I might agree with you, but nevertheless, whoever asks for sacrifices for a greater good should do it herself. One can't ask Brazil to stop cutting trees until her personal comfort is better than Brazil's.
          My point is not moral, mind you. It simply would never work otherwise. Once Brazil is better developed that the US, they will start green movement for sure.

          --
          "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
      • (Score: 2) by corey on Sunday March 15 2020, @08:46PM (1 child)

        by corey (2202) on Sunday March 15 2020, @08:46PM (#971676)

        Because we're all fucked if they cut it, read the article.
        The difference is, the US was able to, without major ramifications to Earth's oxygen production. This is different.

        • (Score: 2) by legont on Monday March 16 2020, @02:50AM

          by legont (4179) on Monday March 16 2020, @02:50AM (#971771)

          The US is totally willing to risk extermination of life on Earth (re: Soviets) to get her goals. Therefore Brazil can, and will, get her goals no matter what.

          --
          "Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:12AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @03:12AM (#971002)

      What can we do about this?
      Give the Amazon a Brazilian.

    • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:57AM

      by Phoenix666 (552) on Saturday March 14 2020, @11:57AM (#971151) Journal

      No, that's not the answer at all.

      Brazil has the answer at hand--terra preta. Look it up. It's the man-made soil the vanished inhabitants of the Amazon basin manufactured. It's incredibly fertile. Some researchers have calculated it can produce up to eight crops a year. That's mind-boggling.

      Since they have been cutting down the trees mostly to farm, with terra preta they won't have to.

      There has been progress toward figuring out how to replicate what the natives did, and once they've cracked it they'll be set. Clearing jungle is, after all, a lot of work you'd rather not have to do if you have a better way.

      --
      Washington DC delenda est.
  • (Score: 3, Insightful) by ElizabethGreene on Saturday March 14 2020, @12:00AM

    by ElizabethGreene (6748) on Saturday March 14 2020, @12:00AM (#970930) Journal

    Apocalyptic predictions may be exciting, but they come at the cost of robbing credibility from the more likely scenarios.

  • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @05:05AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Saturday March 14 2020, @05:05AM (#971040)

    Because coal and nukular is bad. Also when you burn wood, ethanol and oils from biological matter, CO2 and PM2.5 don't count as pollution. Don't forget to store carbon as plastic thrash islands in the ocean.

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