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posted by martyb on Tuesday September 22 2020, @11:03AM   Printer-friendly
from the piqued-oil? dept.

Bp Says We'Ve Already Reached Peak Oil:

BP is saying the quiet part loud: In the 2020 Energy Outlook report the energy giant published this week, it said that the world may have reached peak oil.

The covid-19 pandemic has done a serious number on the oil industry, with demand falling to historic lows amid lockdowns and prices falling into negative territory. In a report on Tuesday, the International Energy Agency warned that for the oil industry, the "path ahead is treacherous," reducing its forecast for global oil demand in 2020 by 200,000 barrels per day. And on Monday, OPEC lowered its predictions of demand in 2020 by 400,000 barrels per day.

In BP's new report, analysts said the market may never recover from this damage. The authors lay out three possible scenarios for the world's energy usage between now and 2050, which illustrate a rapid, moderate, and slow transition to renewables. The first two scenarios show demand for oil steeply falling over the next three decades. But even under the firm's most "optimistic" scenario for Big Oil where climate action doesn't accelerate, oil demand will plateau at 2019 levels before declining in 2035.

This is a vastly different picture from the one the firm sketched in its last outlook report just one year ago, which predicted oil consumption would continue to grow over the next decade, peaking sometime in the 2030s.


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  • (Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:10PM (7 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:10PM (#1054927)

    Jesus, you are stupid. An economic downturn doesn't magically decrease the supply, but it sure as hell decreases the demand.

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  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:26PM (1 child)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:26PM (#1054934) Journal

    An economic downturn doesn't magically decrease the supply, but it sure as hell decreases the demand.

    Speaking of stupid, you're conflating supply with reserves [investopedia.com]. Supply will almost mirror demand. A little will be lost to accidents and leakage. And there is some capacity to store oil. But that's it. Most oil that is extracted, which is supply, gets consumed, which is demand.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:09PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:09PM (#1054949)

      you're conflating supply with reserves

      or inflating them, whatever the case may be.

  • (Score: 3, Interesting) by Phoenix666 on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:41PM (4 children)

    by Phoenix666 (552) on Tuesday September 22 2020, @01:41PM (#1054940) Journal

    Jesus, you are stupid. An economic downturn does decrease the supply, but not magically. It decreases because the demand sure as hell has decreased. The supply doesn't magically produce itself, but rather requires great effort, time, and expense to produce. If the demand for that product drops, the suppliers will produce less.

    If you map that onto comparative statics [wikipedia.org], the demand curve (D) will move left with a new equilibrium being found where the new demand curve (D') will lay. The initial supply curve (S) will have to follow to (S') to meet the new equilibrium, and the supplier losses will be the difference.

    A putative supply of oil says nothing about its estimated raw quantity. For example, there might be endless forests in Canada, but none of it counts as a supply of lumber until it has been harvested and trimmed to standard dimensions.

    PS, it's better to generally refrain from calling people who are not stupid, "stupid." It happens with embarrassing frequency that you don't actually understand what you think you know.

    --
    Washington DC delenda est.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:20PM (3 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday September 22 2020, @02:20PM (#1054955)

      This thread is all a response to the statement about peak oil which is ultimately based on how much oil is left in the ground to be exploited, i.e., reserves.
      Subsequent posters have tried to turn this into something else.

      • (Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:29PM (2 children)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday September 22 2020, @05:29PM (#1055051) Journal
        Then this is an educational moment for you. Because it didn't! Peak oil (at least for the present) happened for a different reason.
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @06:03AM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday September 23 2020, @06:03AM (#1055254)

          Khallow, listen, please, to the collective wisdom of SoylentNews. These Soylentils are pointing out basic economic facts to you, you should pay attention. Just because you may think, incorrectly, that they disagree with your conservative Austrian Circle Libertariantard economic theory, that is no reason for you not to reason out the actual relations between supply and demand. Reagan was in idiot, you know, and Bush was correct in his assessment of Reagan's economic policy: Voodoo economics. You do not want to be doing "Voodoo economics", do you khallow? Next thing you know, you will be doing Zombie economics, or Trumponomics, as it is known. Trump created the greatest economy ever, by, um, talking about how he created the greatest economy ever, until, you know, he didn't. Total shyster flim-flam, complete gaslight economic fakery. Khallow!! Repent! Recant! Renounce your Paltry Gods! Accept the judgment of Ronan the Accuser!

          • (Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday September 23 2020, @11:37AM

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Wednesday September 23 2020, @11:37AM (#1055393) Journal
            I don't see you actually disagreeing for one thing.