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wantkitteh writes:
"The BBC is reporting that Russia has given Ukrainian military forces in Crimea a deadline of 3AM Tuesday morning to surrender or face assault. Moscow claims the position is to protect Russian civilians in Crimea following what it describes as the illegal coup in the past weeks. The Ukrainian Prime Minister has denounced Russia's actions as totally illegal and has called on it's allies to put pressure on Moscow. Russian military readiness in the area is very high with a blockade in place at Ukraine's naval headquarters and pre-positioned air and ground forces already in central locations around Crimea. Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and unprepared to face the threat. Demonstrations in the largely Russian-speaking area have supported Moscow's position while outside the area civilians are scared of what the future holds."
Russia's military has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until dawn on Tuesday to surrender or face an assault, Ukrainian defence sources have said. The head of Russia's Black Sea Fleet Aleksander Vitko set the deadline and also threatened two warships, Ukrainian officials said. However, Interfax news agency later quoted a fleet spokesman who denied that any ultimatum had been issued. Moscow has said its troops are needed in Crimea to protect civilians. The Kremlin says people in Crimea have come under threat from "ultra-nationalists" since pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted last month. Russia is now said to be in de facto control of the Crimea region.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Random2 on Monday March 03 2014, @07:30PM
As someone who hasn't been following the news recently, what exactly is going on?
From wiki it looks like Ukrainian people are upset with a constitutional amendment and overthrew the president to get things restored to their previous state. But now Russia's intervening because... why? Protecting Russian civilians?
If only I registered 3 users earlier....
(Score: 5, Informative) by Angry Jesus on Monday March 03 2014, @07:45PM
> As someone who hasn't been following the news recently, what exactly is going on?
Try this summary of the two competing narratives. [washingtonpost.com]
(Score: 1) by wantkitteh on Monday March 03 2014, @08:00PM
Mod up informative plz ;)
(Score: 3, Informative) by Random2 on Monday March 03 2014, @08:01PM
Ok, thanks! That makes more sense: The current affair is caused by the political shenanigans but is a symptom of competing identities within the country. Russia is involved because not only do some of the citizens in Ukraine want to be Russian, but because Russia wouldn't be opposed to including Ukraine in their territory. And there's a pretext of protecting Russian citizens.
And everyone else in the world isn't very happy about any of this.
If only I registered 3 users earlier....
(Score: 1) by allsorts46 on Monday March 03 2014, @08:24PM
Thanks. Not to say they support either 'side' of the story, but those maps are really interesting.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Sir Garlon on Monday March 03 2014, @10:35PM
Thanks for posting that. For once we get to read -- in an American newspaper, no less -- a reporter who declines to separate the complex, ethnically-based crisis into "good guys" and "bad guys."
Even splitting the country in two would not solve this problem, since you'd still have the minority ethnic Ukrainians in the east, and minority ethnic Russians in the west, who'd become isolated and vulnerable.
The Balkans have pretty much the same problem. If I understand correctly, several sub-Saharan African countries do, too, partly because the former colonial powers disregarded ethnic differences when they drew up the borders of the colonies in Africa.
[Sir Garlon] is the marvellest knight that is now living, for he destroyeth many good knights, for he goeth invisible.
(Score: 2, Informative) by darinbob on Tuesday March 04 2014, @05:18AM
One reason that Estonia has fared so much better than Latvia and Lithuania is that it had a much smaller percentage of Russians, most of whom showed up in the Soviet era. It's certainly not the only reason of course, but it stands out. Never the less, when Estonia decided to relocate a WWII memorial to an unknown Russian soldier from city center to a cemetary, Russia became furious. To the Estonians this was a symbol of an occupation by a subjugating power, but to the Russians this was a near sacred symbol of all they had sacrificed to stop Hitler's armies. So of course the Estonians were called nazis and fascists, very similar to what they are saying about the western Ukrainians.
One thing in Ukraine though is that it is not necessarily that it's borders were drawn arbitrarily, but that there were active measures taken to put Russians there which was started with the czars and continued in the Soviet eras. The Crimea was neither Ukrainian nor Russian for a long time, though it changed hands often, until Stalin forcibly deported all of the Crimean Tatars who lived there to central Asia, and then later all of the Armenians, Bulgarians, etc. At that point it was essentially part of Russia, in name and in population; but then oddly Stalin granted it to Ukraine.
I personally think the autonomous region of Crimea should just be a separate state, since right now it is basically de-facto a part of Russia. But for rest of Ukraine it is very odd state of affairs. Do you punish western Ukraine for not being pro-Russia and pro-Putin, or do you punish eastern Ukraine for having the bad luck to have ancestors resettled by Stalin or the czars, or do you punish both sides by keeping them together, or punish both sides by splitting them apart?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 04 2014, @09:15AM
It was under Krushchev that Crimea was transferred to the Ukrainian SSR.
(Score: 5, Informative) by wantkitteh on Monday March 03 2014, @07:53PM
Here's a chart showing use of the Russian language in the Ukraine:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3 4/RussianUseEn.PNG [wikimedia.org]
Ukraine can't expect NATO support under treaty as they aren't a full member. Russia have a permanent military presence in the Ukraine, including an airbase pretty central to the Crimean Peninsula, giving them a great toehold before anyone even put their boots this morning. Add to that numerical and readiness superiority over their opponents, Russia are starting from a great military stance in the area. Given a correlation between language use and national identity, Russia's line that it's a defensive move holds just enough water to give them the initiative on top of all that.
Now we have to wait while the Intentions department tries to figure out what Putin's goal is to make sense of it all. Break out the crystal balls.
(Score: 3, Informative) by duvel on Monday March 03 2014, @08:00PM
Since Russia, the EU and the US all have vested interest in seeing the Ukrainian situation solved in a manner to their own liking, articles from any news feed of Russia, the EU and US about the Ukraine do not necessarily reflect the truth. Lucky for us, the Arab world is far less involved. It may be that Al Jazeera has the most objective view on what is happening Ukranian Timeline [aljazeera.com] and for more detail Liveblog [aljazeera.com].
Sad to see that it has come to this.
This Sig is under surveilance by the NSA
(Score: 5, Informative) by VLM on Monday March 03 2014, @08:13PM
There is no such thing as the Ukrainian people. As if there's one united group.
Picture Iraq or Yugoslavia again, this time sandwiched between Poland and Russia. Same deal for all those situations, the country doesn't really exist, some Imperial Powers decided to gather a bunch of people who can't stand each other into one blot on the map, which worked pretty well when the Empire kept them under control. Not surprisingly two of the ethnic groups are at each other's throats, like forever, and only an evil genius strongman kept them under control. Once he was kicked out, its open season on each other, and someone gets to try and stop the genocide. In this case the Russians. Aside from all the P.R. photo-op garbage, they seem to be doing a decent job. Better than we did in Iraq, which is rather embarrassing, which is why the USA is all lathered up. And the EU don't want to be accused of ignoring genocide like the "former Yugoslavia" yet again, etc.
Russia kind of needs access to that naval base which has been either theirs or leased forever. One way or another they're keeping that base and land access to it. What happens to the rest of the country is unclear.
VLM's gut level guess? War refugees and forced relocation and all the ethnic Russians end up dead or shoved east and all the ethnic Slavics end up dead or shoved west and the smaller Ukraine allies with Poland and NATO and EU and the new vassal state of Crimea allies with Russia. No point building a wall between them, maybe a DMZX
(Score: 1) by photong on Tuesday March 04 2014, @06:53AM
all the ethnic Russians end up dead or shoved east and all the ethnic Slavics end up dead or shoved west
Russians are slavs.
(Score: 5, Informative) by Kromagv0 on Monday March 03 2014, @08:27PM
Well from my understanding the sequence of events is as follows, as well as some background
Background
The previous president (the one who is now in Russia wanted by the current government) was democratically elected. He was from the ethnically and linguistically Russian part of Ukraine, South and East portions.
Ukraine is broke
The western portion of Ukraine has closer ties to Europe and speaks Ukrainian not Russian.
The population in and around Kiev is part of the population that is closer to the EU than to Russia
Events
Initially there was a proposal for closer ties between the Ukraine and the EU which was rejected. This brought out mostly peaceful protesters in Kiev.
As things got worse in the Ukraine the country needs financial assistance and there were 2 proposals put forward, one by Russia for immediate cash aide and one from the EU with loans and restructuring to happen over time.
The EU offer was rejected (mid January) which riled the protesters (they had been at it for months at this point)
Shortly there after new laws were enacted to curb the protests which were still mostly non violent.
At this point the protests became violent with beating and tear gas being used.
The protesters now demanded that the existing president step down and new elections be held.
These protests are much more violent than previous ones with varying amounts of violence from day to day depending on how things appear to be going. Some officials are canned and some new elections are called for a future date.
After a few cease fires, truces, whatever and the situation in Kiev continues to deteriorate so the president flees.
A new government is formed but is mostly from the EU aligned sections.
This bring us up to about last week, and currently the former president is wanted for murder, the Russians have invaded, and there are rumors about Neo-Nazis and other white supremest groups streaming in to cause problems. Late last week there were rumors of the Russians taking control of things in Crimea where they have a base which was later confirmed. Russia operates a couple of military bases in the area so there are probably Russian civilians there but I wonder if by Russian civilians they might be including ethnic Russians as well.
This is mostly from memory so some details may be a bit off. Also keep in mind that the ethnic Russian areas, Crimea included, don't have a problem and have supported the former president and support the current Russian activities. The Russians also blame the US, EU, and NATO for interfering in an internal Ukrainian problem, which the US, EU, and NATO blame Russia for interfering.
I suggest reading up on it more since this seems like it may turn into a big deal (looking at you Archduke Franz Ferdinand) given who is on what side and various treaties, and if not at least you have expanded your knowledge of the world.
T-Shirts and bumper stickers [zazzle.com] to offend someone
(Score: 3, Interesting) by mmcmonster on Monday March 03 2014, @09:28PM
One more tidbit of background.
Of the former Soviet states, the ones that converted to a capitalistic and more European style of governance have done better (ie: Poland) while those who have stayed more socialist aren't doing quite as well.
My heart goes out to the people of the region. I know a few of them, and they're good people who are getting the shaft by their former president and future overlord.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday March 03 2014, @10:02PM
Wether Janukovytj was democratically elected is highly questionable and one of the reasons for the demonstrations took place in the first place was that the people felt that election results were being tampered with and that he would simply remain in power no matter how people voted.
Also worth noting is that he seems to be little more then a crimelord lining his own pockets with money that isn't his.
His enforcers the ("police") Berkut was pretty much running around doing whatever they pleased, the latest example of their antics would be shooting demonstrators. They have been disbanded by the new government. Interestingly Berkut officers have since been promised russian citizenship by Putin who also seems to distribute passports to people in crimea supposedly to be able to claim that he is protecting his own citizens.
Also the russian motorcycle gang Night Wolves have gathered together a bunch of people and headed to crimea. The leader of this gang is a personal friend of Putin.
All in all it sounds more like a script for a crappy action movie then reality, but sadly it isn't.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday March 04 2014, @10:05AM
Yanukovych was in fact democratically elected and in a familiar, American way:
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesi nger/2014/02/21/ukraines-long-history-with-us-poli tical-consultants-and-lobbyists [usnews.com]7 48703630404575053082580601328 [wsj.com]
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_J._Manafort [wikipedia.org]
http://www.dmlmessage.com/about/team/tad-devine/ [dmlmessage.com]
(Score: 1) by Runaway1956 on Monday March 03 2014, @08:52PM
1. Protecting Russian assets in the Crimea
2. Protecting Russian nationals
3. Protecting ethnic Russians
They do have a pretty valid reason for assisting the Crimean people to declare an autonomous region for themselves. 60% of the people in the Crimea are either ethnic Russian, or Russian nationals, or both.
(Score: 1) by darinbob on Tuesday March 04 2014, @04:54AM
Russia considers that native Russian speakers elsewhere are their deepest and closest brothers and sisters, and has stated that it will defend them.
I see parallels here with Germany invading the Sudetenland. Or the US protecting the Texans when Mexico wanted to quash their rebellion.