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posted by martyb on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:02AM   Printer-friendly

China is building a 2nd base for nuclear missiles, say analysts:

Analysts at the Federation of American Scientists say China is building a second field of silos for launching nuclear missiles in a development that could constitute “the most significant expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal ever”.

The United States-based researchers made the discovery after analysing commercial satellite images, and said on Monday that the field – located near the city of Hami in Xinjiang province – may eventually include about 110 silos.

The new field is about 380km (236 miles) from a base near the city of Yumen in neighbouring Gansu province, where a separate group of researchers earlier this month found construction under way on 120 missile silos.

Altogether, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force now appears to have 250 silos under construction at Hami, Yumen, as well as at a training ground near the city of Jilantai in Inner Mongolia, wrote the FAS’s Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen.

[...] “The number of new Chinese silos under construction exceeds the number of silo-based ICBMs operated by Russia, and constitutes more than half of the size of the entire US ICBM force,” they wrote. “The Chinese missile silo program constitutes the most extensive silo construction since the US and Soviet missile silo construction during the Cold War.”

However, they stressed that it was unclear how China would operate the new silos, whether it would load all of them with missiles or use a portion as empty decoys. They also noted it was not known how many warheads each missile would carry.


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  • (Score: 0, Flamebait) by khallow on Sunday August 01 2021, @12:43PM (14 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 01 2021, @12:43PM (#1161946) Journal
    Looks like they're building two such bases. Unless the FAS is getting solid information from an intelligence agency, what else is the FAS missing?

    This is one of the biggest problems with an opaque government. You never know what they're doing or what the various factions are thinking. Even when you find out what they're doing, it's often years after the decisions were made. This is the heart of Kremlinology [wikipedia.org] - carefully analyzing actions today to figure out what important events happened years ago.
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  • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:10PM (11 children)

    by fustakrakich (6150) on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:10PM (#1161972) Journal

    "Kremlinologists" -- That's funny stuff, like today's modern conspiracy theorist:

    ... lack of reliable information about the country forced Western analysts to "read between the lines" and to use the tiniest tidbits, such as the removal of portraits, the rearranging of chairs, positions at the reviewing stand for parades in Red Square, the choice of capital or small initial letters in phrases such as "First Secretary", the arrangement of articles on the pages of the party newspaper Pravda and other indirect signs...

    As for missile count, the story is that China still has some catching up to do.

    --
    La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
    • (Score: 3, Touché) by turgid on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:16PM (1 child)

      by turgid (4318) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:16PM (#1161974) Journal

      Did they count the tea leaves too? And see which way the stripes went on their socks and ties?

      • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @05:14AM

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @05:14AM (#1162141) Journal
        If those tea leaves and strips on socks were used by those elites to signal status or favor, then not only would Kremlinologists be doing that, but it would work too!

        It might sound silly, but this sort of stuff was necessary to have any understanding of what was going on in the heads of the elite of these governments.
    • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @04:44AM (8 children)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @04:44AM (#1162136) Journal

      "Kremlinologists" -- That's funny stuff, like today's modern conspiracy theorist:

      Except that the "conspiracy" is overt.

      • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Monday August 02 2021, @05:25PM (7 children)

        by fustakrakich (6150) on Monday August 02 2021, @05:25PM (#1162315) Journal

        Always is... "hidden in plain sight"

        So, deep down you're "QAnon", eh?

        --
        La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
        • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @09:50PM (6 children)

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @09:50PM (#1162448) Journal

          Always is... "hidden in plain sight"

          Where "plain sight" is a massive country that you're not allowed to poke around in.

          • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Monday August 02 2021, @09:59PM (5 children)

            by fustakrakich (6150) on Monday August 02 2021, @09:59PM (#1162454) Journal

            Yeah, so they're gonna hang the picture of Lenin just a little bit crooked to signal they're invading Poland tonight at 11pm Eastern/10pm Central, but only if the German Chancellor sits across from the Swedish Prime Minister and the waiter serves him beluga caviar from his left side

            --
            La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
            • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @10:06PM (4 children)

              by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @10:06PM (#1162458) Journal

              Yeah, so they're gonna hang the picture of Lenin just a little bit crooked to signal they're invading Poland tonight at 11pm Eastern/10pm Central, but only if the German Chancellor sits across from the Swedish Prime Minister and the waiter serves him beluga caviar from his left side

              Well, if that's how they do it, then they'll do it that way. You're missing that this sort of analysis works. In the real world, subtle status signaling was and is a common feature of authoritarian governments like the USSR or present day China. One can tell who is in favor from their public status, and that in turn can give clues about what the present day policy of the authoritarian government is.

              • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Monday August 02 2021, @10:13PM (3 children)

                by fustakrakich (6150) on Monday August 02 2021, @10:13PM (#1162462) Journal

                Ah, so it's just status seeking and adjusting the plumage on your hat. Only happens in "foreign" culture.

                --
                La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
                • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @11:35PM (2 children)

                  by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @11:35PM (#1162499) Journal
                  So a phenomenon is ignorable, if the US does it? Notice that I used the phrase, "opaque government", not "opaque governments that aren't the US". Kremlinology gets used elsewhere too, such as interpreting company marketing.
                  • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday August 03 2021, @12:46AM (1 child)

                    by fustakrakich (6150) on Tuesday August 03 2021, @12:46AM (#1162525) Journal

                    Very revealing that you call it "Kremlinology"

                    --
                    La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
                    • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 03 2021, @01:50AM

                      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 03 2021, @01:50AM (#1162544) Journal

                      Very revealing that you call it "Kremlinology"

                      What's a better label to use here?

                      Kremlinology was a systematic study of the observable behavior of an otherwise black box government and culture. That's exactly the situation here with China. So why not reuse a good label again?

  • (Score: 3, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:09PM (1 child)

    by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:09PM (#1161992) Journal

    It would make sense to build 100 similar bases. And then to put one missile in every 20th or 50th silo. An attacker would have to target 10,000 silos if he were hoping to get all the missiles.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 02 2021, @11:40PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 02 2021, @11:40PM (#1162500)

      Oh just wait for it, they'll be more silos, maybe not 50 or 100 but they'll be a few more. Meanwhile they're also building fake islands in the South China sea where real nuke warheads in subs are prowling much closer to the rest of the world.