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posted by martyb on Thursday September 09, @09:48AM   Printer-friendly

XPoint capacity to surpass DRAM by 2030

We have just learned about a report by Coughlin Associates and Objective Analysis called Emerging Memories Take Off, courtesy of Tom Coughlin. The report looks at 3D XPoint, MRAM, ReRAM and other emerging memory technologies and says their revenues could grow to $44 billion by 2031. That's because they will displace some server DRAM, and also NOR flash and SRAM — either as standalone chips or as embedded memory within ASICs and microcontrollers.

The emerging memory market is set to grow substantially with 3D XPoint revenues reaching $20 billion-plus by 2031, and standalone MRAM and STT-RAM reaching $1.7 billion in revenues by then. The report predicts that the bulk of embedded NOR and SRAM in SoCs will be replaced by embedded ReRAM and MRAM.

A chart shows XPoint capacity ships crossing the 100,000PB level in 2028 and so surpassing DRAM, whose capacity growth is slowing slightly. The chart shows XPoint capacity shipped being 1000PB this year. That number will grow 100x to 100,000PB in 2028.

Related: Micron Abandons 3D XPoint, Puts Fab Up for Sale
Micron Sells 3D XPoint Fab to Texas Instruments, Not Intel

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  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by FatPhil on Thursday September 09, @10:31AM

    by FatPhil (863) <> on Thursday September 09, @10:31AM (#1176203) Homepage
    I notice that the graph they have has only 2 years of data, and presumes that the new technology will continue to grow at the same exponential rate that it has done so far, and not at the far slower exponential rate that DRAM has been growing at, and no argument to indicate why that faster exponential rate would hold true for an extended period. If you add the two curves together to get total RAM demand (give or take) he's basically saying that in the past it was one exponential curve, and in 6 years time it will be a different steeper exponential curve, without giving a reason for the change strong than "because 3D XPoint is here!".

    Exponential growth being extrapolated way into the future is always a problem. IT-related things have managed to keep the pretence it's possible up for way longer than any other field, but even that has to slow down eventually. Predicting a *faster* exponential in the future seems even braver (stupider? marketting bullshittier?) than just predicting that it can continue at the same rate.

    I'm not being Debbie Downer about the tech - RAM's seen very few really inovative developments for many decades, and this not-just-a-grid-of-transisters development is a very interesting one. I hope they're right, as either costs or power consumption (and thus cost) would naturally drop if they are.
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