Neil Irwin writes at the NYT that financially literate people like to complain that buying lottery tickets is among the silliest decisions a person could make but there are a couple of dimensions that these tut-tutted warnings miss, perhaps fueled by a class divide between those who commonly buy lottery tickets and those who choose to throw away money on other things like expensive wine or mansions. According to Irwin, as long as you think about the purchase of lottery tickets the right way — purely a consumption good, not an investment — it can be a completely rational decision. "Fantasizing about what you would do if you suddenly encountered great wealth is fun, and it is more fun if there some chance, however minuscule, that it could happen," says Irwin. "The $2 price for a ticket is a relatively small one to pay for the enjoyment of thinking through how you might organize your life differently if you had all those millions."
Right now the Multi-State Lottery Association estimates the chances of winning the grand prize at about 1 in 175 million, and the cash value of the prize at $337.8 million. The simplest math points to that $2 ticket having an expected value of about $1.93 so while you are still throwing away money when buying a lottery ticket, you are throwing away less in strictly economic terms when you buy into an unusually large Powerball jackpot. "I am the type of financial decision-maker who tracks bond and currency markets and builds elaborate spreadsheets to simulate outcomes of various retirement savings strategies," says Irwin. "I can easily afford to spend a few dollars on a Powerball ticket. Time to head to the convenience store and do just that."
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 13 2015, @01:27AM
Math? Economics you mean. Right out of a model.
There are so many items that we purchase that does not have inherent value other than enjoyment, or satisfaction of an itch. When my kids waste a dollar getting plastic toys out of the dispenser at the pizza parlor, I know that these toys will not be played with ever again, cannot be turned into other products, eaten, or even sold again (realistically). I let them buy them anyway because they are having fun. Buying a lottery ticket might be fun. The expected utility is having some fun. Expected utility drives our whole economy.
or in other words, it is rational to realize that one is human with human weaknesses and needs, so it can be rational to buy useless items.
(Score: 2) by c0lo on Friday February 13 2015, @09:09AM
Mate, just a warning: no matter what you say, you're not gonna convince me to buy an iPhone.