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from the we're-doomed,-I-tell-you,-doomed dept.
Anonymous Coward writes:
"I've heard this theme repeated many times in debates and economic discussions, but this NASA-funded study seems like one of the more well researched studies in this area. This article contains more links to other studies that provide more empirical and less theoretical models."
The report continues:
A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilization could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.
Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that 'the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history.' Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to 'precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common.'
The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.
(Score: 2) by hatta on Wednesday March 19 2014, @02:22PM
There is a major difference between the G8 and these historical empires: agricultural yield per hectare, or more generally, productivity per worker.
Increased productivity might increase the population density we're able to achieve before collapse, but that would only delay the collapse, not prevent it.
Mechanization, fertilizer, refrigeration, pesticides ... overlooking the effects of these differences makes me more than a little skeptical that the authors have checked the validity of their model.
And when fossil fuels run out, how are we going to run our tractors, fix nitrogen for fertilizer, power our refrigerated shipping containers, etc., etc.?
(Score: 3, Interesting) by VLM on Wednesday March 19 2014, @03:41PM
"And when fossil fuels run out"
All you need to do is make it impossible to extract and distribute enough of it. Say the financial markets go crazy (or crazier) and its no longer financially viable to operate a traditional capitalist resource extraction empire. Well, then you don't.
Another interesting dynamic is as the slide picks up speed, the remaining producers become more brittle and less likely to be able to continue production. Partially due to general collapse of course, but also specifically due to lack of economy of scale.
An example of this is the near future shutdown of the Alaskan pipeline.
No need to literally empty the earth of all potential fuel.