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Geoff Ralston has an interesting essay explaining why is likely that electric car penetration in the US will take off at an exponential rate over the next 5-10 years rendering laughable the paltry predictions of future electric car sales being made today. Present projections assume that electric car sales will slowly increase as the technology gets marginally better, and as more and more customers choose to forsake a better product (the gasoline car) for a worse, yet "greener" version. According to Ralston this view of the future is, simply, wrong. - electric cars will take over our roads because consumers will demand them. "Electric cars will be better than any alternative, including the loud, inconvenient, gas-powered jalopy," says Ralston. "The Tesla Model S has demonstrated that a well made, well designed electric car is far superior to anything else on the road. This has changed everything."
The Tesla Model S has sold so well because, compared to old-fashioned gasoline cars it is more fun to drive, quieter, always "full" every morning, more roomy, and it continuously gets better with automatic updates and software improvements. According to Ralston the tipping point will come when gas stations, not a massively profitable business, start to go out of business as many more electric cars are sold, making gasoline powered vehicles even more inconvenient. When that happens even more gasoline car owners will be convinced to switch. Rapidly a tipping point will be reached, at which point finding a convenient gas station will be nearly impossible and owning a gasoline powered car will positively suck. "Elon Musk has ushered in the age of the electric car, and whether or not it, too, was inevitable, it has certainly begun," concludes Ralston. "The future of automotive transportation is an electric one and you can expect that future to be here soon."
(Score: 3, Informative) by slinches on Thursday July 30 2015, @11:24PM
I'm in a similar situation, but I plan on purchasing an Elio [eliomotors.com] instead of an electric car. With such a low price and high mileage ($6800 and >60 mpg combined cycle) the TCO over five years for me is ~$10k, which is less than just the purchase price of any other similarly capable vehicle (electric or otherwise). The only thing that could match the low cost and high efficiency is a motorcycle or scooter and those are far less safe and exposed to weather.
(Score: 2) by RedBear on Friday July 31 2015, @03:06AM
I really sincerely wish you the best of luck in actually acquiring an Elio, but from what I have read about it they are continuing to have a significant problem getting funded. They need something like $150 million more just to get mass production started. As far as I know, no three-wheeled vehicle has ever succeeded in the marketplace despite many tries, and their price point seems like a pipe dream. I'd be really surprised if they could produce it for less than 2-3 times that price. The American market seems to see oddball compact vehicles like the Elio as far too limiting versus a regular compact car. They just never succeed beyond a small cult following, and I don't see how the Elio will be any different.
It would be super cool to see things like the Elio or the Corbin Sparrow [google.com] available and driving around, but I would not personally bet on that horse rather than investing in a used Nissan LEAF or something. The American market just seems to consider them expensive third-vehicle hobby toys for rich people.
¯\_ʕ◔.◔ʔ_/¯ LOL. I dunno. I'm just a bear.
... Peace out. Got bear stuff to do. 彡ʕ⌐■.■ʔ
(Score: 3, Interesting) by slinches on Friday July 31 2015, @04:08AM
Yeah, at 2-3x the price it would be far less appealing and only justifiable as a rather lame toy. The reason I think it could work this time is that the cost is low enough that it would be cheaper to buy an Elio and keep your regular car than to pay for the gas and maintenance costs of driving that regular car. As far as meeting that cost target goes, the CEO has stated that if they pushed the current design into production, that they are only ~$500 over the target price. So it seems that it isn't far off and the approach of using off the shelf components and offering the more expensive upgrade features as options appears to be sound.
The funding situation is looking better too. They just met a goal of 25 million in private investor interest over at startengine.com. That money is slated to fund the fleet of 25 test vehicles and associated validation testing. The rest of the funds to tool up the production line and start making vehicles will likely come from the government ATVM loan that Elio has applied for. Assuming the loan comes through, they should be in good financial shape after that. There are already 44,000 reservations made, so they know there's demand to go into high volume production immediately.
All that being said, there's still a high risk of failure. That comes with the territory of start ups, especially those in the automotive industry. That's why I haven't put money down for a reservation yet. Instead I plan to invest that $1000 through the regulation A+ offering. If they succeed and go into full production, I'll probably be able to get an Elio with the profit. If not, I'm only out as much as any of the thousands of people who put in non-refundable deposits.