It's common for media and academics to cite the statistic that China's one-child policy has led to anywhere from 30 million to 60 million "missing girls" that has created a gender imbalance in the world's most populous nation.
But a University of Kansas researcher is a co-author of a study that has found those numbers are likely overblown, and that a large number of those girls aren't missing at all—it was more of an administrative story that had to do with how births are registered at local levels in China.
"People think 30 million girls are missing from the population. That's the population of California, and they think they're just gone," said John Kennedy, a KU associate professor of political science. "Most people are using a demographic explanation to say that abortion or infanticide are the reasons they don't show up in the census, and that they don't exist. But we find there is a political explanation."
The 2010 Chinese census found the sex ratio at birth was 118 males for every 100 females. Globally the average is about 105 males to females. In 2015, Chinese state media announced all couples would be allowed to have two children, signaling the end of the controversial 35-year-old policy, but scholars and policymakers are examining how the ban could have lasting social influence in China on everything from elderly care to political stability.
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China hints at three-child policy with 'happy family' stamps
Speculation is mounting in China that the country is set to further relax its two-child policy and allow people to have more children.
Postage stamps unveiled earlier this week to mark the incoming Year of the Pig in February 2019 have led many social media users to question whether a loosening of family planning restrictions could be imminent.
The stamps show a parent pig couple and three piglets. On the surface, it hardly appears to be a policy announcement. But users on the popular Sina Weibo microblog have pointed out that two years ago, before the one-child policy was abolished, China issued Year of the Monkey stamps featuring two baby monkeys.
And in recent months, the Chinese government has been strongly encouraging couples to have more than one child. Local authorities have even been offering incentives, such as tax breaks, and education and housing subsidies.
A 2015 UN report projected that China's population would decline to about 1 billion by 2100, although some experts put the number even lower.
Related: China's 'Missing Girls' Theory Likely Far Overblown, Study Shows
Japan suffers biggest natural population decline ever in 2018
Japan suffered its biggest natural population decline ever this year, government statistics show.
The fast-graying nation also posted a record-low birthrate, as the estimated number of babies born in 2018 dipped to 921,000 -- the lowest since records began in 1899 -- according to a report published Friday by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The number of newborns is estimated to have shrunk by 25,000 from 2017, and the figure remains under the 1 million mark for the third year running.
Deaths in 2018 also hit a postwar record high of 1.369 million, with a natural population decline of 448,000 -- the highest ever.
Beijing eyes two-child policy U-turn, but 'lonely generation' has moved on
For nearly 40 years, the Chinese government harshly restricted childbearing through the one-child rule in order to control population growth. That may soon change. Beijing appears to be on the cusp of abolishing all of its family planning rules — and is even encouraging young couples to have more children as a matter of patriotic urgency.
But attitudes toward parenthood have changed. Even though there is a two-child policy in place now, many Chinese still don't want to have more than one child — or any at all. "I think having one child is enough," said Chen Yiwen, a 25-year-old accountant and newlywed. "I won't be tempted to have more — even if the family planning policy is abolished." [...] "Besides, we already have two little babies — a poodle and a corgi," she said.
Related (JP): Japan Has Aged Out of its Economic Miracle
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Japan's Fertility Crisis is Creating Economic and Social Woes Never Seen Before
Japan Has 1.48 Jobs for Every Applicant
Why a Generation in Japan Is Facing a Lonely Death
Related (CN): China's 'Missing Girls' Theory Likely Far Overblown, Study Shows
China "Three-Child Policy" Hinted by Stamp Design?
Confronted By Aging Population China Allows Couples To Have Three Children
China will now allow married couples to have up to three children as the country attempts to halt a declining birthrate.
The policy is a dramatic change for a country which, less than a decayde ago, still performed forced abortions and sterilizations of women who had more than one child. The new three child limit raises the previous ceiling of two children. It is a recognition from the country's top leaders that China will need to undertake drastic measures to counter a rapidly aging society.
"Implementing the policy and its relevant supporting measures will help improve China's population structure, actively respond to the aging population, and preserve the country's human resource advantages," China's Politburo, a top Communist Party governing body, wrote in a statement published on China's state news agency Xinhua on Monday.
Only five years ago, China officially ended its One Child policy, a raft of restrictions that for more than three decades strictly limited couples to only one child. Those who had two or more children in violation of the policy were fined heavily. Pregnant women were sometimes effectively kidnapped by local family planning officials who cajoled, intimidated, or forced women to end the birth.
Also at BBC.
See also: China's new three-child policy sends baby and maternity stocks soaring
'Too much of a burden': Chinese couples react to three-child policy
Previously: China's 'Missing Girls' Theory Likely Far Overblown, Study Shows
China "Three-Child Policy" Hinted by Stamp Design?
Japan's Population Declines by 448,000; China May Reverse Childbirth Restrictions
(Score: -1, Troll) by Ethanol-fueled on Sunday December 04 2016, @12:11PM
Hah! You dumb Chinks have fucked yourselves in your own asses! Now you have to mate with your cousins, and produce inbred offspring!
Chink Women: mate with Whites for genetic superiority., We hate White women, we will take you home and show you a better place!
(Score: 2, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 04 2016, @02:00PM
I wish you had something going on in your life.
(Score: 2) by jmorris on Sunday December 04 2016, @06:27PM
Oh come on, that was pretty good trolling, especially since it is actually on topic. First posts generally have to shoot for short and pithy since the window of opportunity is small.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 04 2016, @06:28PM
They make our iphones and other e-trash. Thankfully they also jump off buildings.
(Score: 2) by AthanasiusKircher on Sunday December 04 2016, @05:48PM
From TFA:
To supplement the qualitative data, the researchers then examined Chinese population data by cohort, and they compared number of children born in 1990 with the number of 20-year-old Chinese men and women in 2010. In that cohort, they discovered 4 million additional people, and of those there were approximately 1 million more women than men.
"If we go over a course of 25 years, it's possible there are about 25 million women in the statistics that weren't there at birth," Kennedy said.
Yes, that last statement is true, but what evidence do we have beyond that one-year cohort? Why do they focus only on that one year? If the percentages even varied slightly from year-to-year it could produce variations of millions of people in the totals. (For example, note that the reported male:female birth ratio in 1990 was 1.11:1 in 1990, but it grew to 1.21:1 in 2005. In some provinces that ratio was as high as 1.43:1 in 2005.)
Also, as stated at the beginning of the article, the estimates are 30 to 60 million "missing girls" in China. If the larger estimates are valid, that's tens of millions "missing" that are still unexplained. And let's not forget that the whole reason why female abortion/infanticide is suspected in China in the first place is because there is a very long history of it there [wikipedia.org].
So, while unregistered births may explain SOME of the discrepancies, I don't see any strong statistical evidence presented in TFA that substantiates the headline. Maybe it is "overblown," and maybe this is the explanation, but I'd like to see a lot more data before using words like "likely" and "far overblown."
(Score: 3, Interesting) by AthanasiusKircher on Sunday December 04 2016, @06:29PM
By the way, this is not a new theory, and the implications of so-called "ghost children" have been long debated in China. See, for example, this extended piece [theglobeandmail.com] about them from last year. China has now officially allowed registration of "ghost children" [theglobeandmail.com], but many are still facing logistical obstacles.
Anyhow, I'm not really sure that moving these "missing girls" from the "aborted/infanticide" category to the "ghost child" category actually should improve our perception of what happened in China. If parents selectively chose to register male children, while leaving female children unregistered, that means they generally went uneducated, unable to use most social services, unable to buy basic medication without an ID, unable to board long-distance buses or trains without ID, unable to secure "normal" employment. Without registration, they basically had the status of "illegal aliens" in their own country -- where they would be eligible for a LOT less services than illegal aliens would be, say, in the U.S.
I don't know about the researchers' motivations, but the media coverage from such things seems like it is often trying to excuse China -- "Hey, they didn't just abort or kill a bunch of baby girls after all!" No, instead, we're suggesting that parents selectively were condemning their girls to an "underground" life where they weren't eligible to participate in society or make use of basic services like healthcare or education.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by jmorris on Sunday December 04 2016, @06:36PM
Pretty simple to understand what is going on here. It is China. Of course they are lying. Because to admit the truth would destroy the country we might want to consider helping them cover this up while they try to find a way out of the problem they have made.
Think about it. 118:100 means almost one in six Chinese men will not mate. Large numbers of unattached men always create problems. Large numbers of unattached women simply lead to the adoption of multiple marriage, but most cultures reject the opposite solution.
Social instability is a certainly, the leaders may only choose how the instability will be allowed to manifest. War is the obvious solution, which will suck for anyone near them. Putin understands, as I am sure India, Japan and the more intelligent European leaders do as well. Helping them find a better answer should be a priority for everyone.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday December 04 2016, @06:56PM
> Of course they are lying. Because to admit the truth would destroy the country we might want to consider helping them cover this up
The problems with an unbalanced sex-ratio arent going to be mitigated by lying.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 05 2016, @01:36AM
Why don't they have a cap and trade system on births. Every person is allowed to have a single child, a couple is allowed to have two children. If you want to have another child past two you must buy the right from someone that has it (and markets determine price) and they lose that right. When you reach a certain age (a reasonable age, old enough to make such a decision, let the government decide how old that is) then you may sell your given right if you haven't already exercised it.
If two people have a child they both lose half of their right each. Then if they want to have a second child they lose the other half.
Alternatively if they divorce after having one child each person is left with one half of a child that they may have. If one of them wants another child he/she must pair up with someone else that at least has a right to have half of a child to make one full child.
Or if that person pairs up with someone that has no rights to have any more children but they want another child they can buy half of someone else's right on the open market to make one full right.
If the government later decides that the population is shrinking too fast and they want to grow it or prevent it from shrinking so fast they can then sell additional child rights on the open market.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday December 05 2016, @01:42AM
Alternatively when the population is growing too fast the government can then control the population by reducing the number of rights each person is endowed with. For instance they can decide that each person is only entitled to have 3/4 of a child and rights can be sold in 1/4 increments. Each couple can have 1 & 1/2 children (ie: only one child) but if they want to have a second child they can buy half a right from someone else willing to sell to make two whole rights. When the population begins to shrink the government can adjust the number of endowed rights each person is allowed to have (ie: with a stimulus plan giving people more rights) or they can sell rights on the open market.