from the we-don't-need-no-stinkin'-roads dept.
Submitted via IRC for takyon
IEEE, the world's largest technical professional organization dedicated to advancing technology for humanity, today announced the release of the 2017 edition of the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS), building upon 15 years of projecting technology needs for evolving the semiconductor and computer industries. The IRDS is an IEEE Standards Association (IEEE-SA) Industry Connections (IC) Program sponsored by the IEEE Rebooting Computing (IEEE RC) Initiative, which has taken a lead in building a comprehensive view of the devices, components, systems, architecture, and software that comprise the global computing ecosystem.
According to Paolo A. Gargini, IEEE and Japan Society of Applied Physics (JSAP) Fellow, and Chairman of IRDS, "Over the past decade the structure and requirements of the electronics industry have evolved well beyond the semiconductor's industry requirements. In line with the changes in the new electronics ecosystem, the 2017 IRDS has integrated system requirements with device requirements and identified some new powerful solutions that will support and revolutionize the electronics industry for the next 15 years."
According to William Tonti, IEEE Fellow and IEEE Future Directions Sr. Director, "The IRDS presents an end-to-end continuum of computing as requirements evolve into multiple platforms."
In an interview posted just before the release of the latest TOP500 list, high performance computing expert Dr. Thomas Sterling (one of the two builders of the original "Beowulf cluster") had this to say about the possibility of reaching "zettascale" (beyond 1,000 exaflops):
I'll close here by mentioning two other possibilities that, while not widely considered currently, are nonetheless worthy of research. The first is superconducting supercomputing and the second is non-von Neumann architectures. Interestingly, the two at least in some forms can serve each other making both viable and highly competitive with respect to future post-exascale computing designs. Niobium Josephson Junction-based technologies cooled to four Kelvins can operate beyond 100 and 200 GHz and has slowly evolved over two or more decades. When once such cold temperatures were considered a show stopper, now quantum computing – or at least quantum annealing – typically is performed at 40 milli-Kelvins or lower, where four Kelvins would appear like a balmy day on the beach. But latencies measured in cycles grow proportionally with clock rate and superconducting supercomputing must take a very distinct form from typical von Neumann cores; this is a controversial view, by the way.
Possible alternative non-von Neumann architectures that would address this challenge are cellular automata and data flow, both with their own problems, of course – nothing is easy. I introduce this thought not to necessarily advocate for a pet project – it is a pet project of mine – but to suggest that the view of the future possibilities as we enter the post-exascale era is a wide and exciting field at a time where we may cross a singularity before relaxing once again on a path of incremental optimizations.
I once said in public and in writing that I predicted we would never get to zettaflops computing. Here, I retract this prediction and contribute a contradicting assertion: zettaflops can be achieved in less than 10 years if we adopt innovations in non-von Neumann architecture. With a change to cryogenic technologies, we can reach yottaflops by 2030.
The rest of the interview covers a number of interesting topics, such as China's increased presence on the supercomputing list.
Also at NextBigFuture.
Previously: Thomas Sterling: 'I Think We Will Never Reach Zettaflops' (2012)
Related: IBM Reduces Neural Network Energy Consumption Using Analog Memory and Non-Von Neumann Architecture
IEEE Releases the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS)
June 2018 TOP500 List: U.S. Claims #1 and #3 Spots
(Score: 2) by Gaaark on Thursday June 21 2018, @02:33AM (1 child)
The 2017 edition, huh?
Good to know they publish quickly.
--- Please remind me if I haven't been civil to you: I'm channeling MDC. ---Gaaark 2.0 ---
(Score: 2) by bob_super on Thursday June 21 2018, @04:14AM
Another couple years, and they'll have to adjoin a dictionary to explain to people what a "Roadmap" is.
And people will look at that book and ask what the point of dictionary is.
(except Uber, who will be trying to save money by enabling self-driving cars that read the map data alone, because it's quick and disruptive, unlike that unreliable lidar junk)
(Score: 2) by black6host on Thursday June 21 2018, @02:37AM (1 child)
From the TFS:
I'm sure that these fine fellows are all fine Fellows but that really sounds like MBA speak to me, lol.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by frojack on Thursday June 21 2018, @03:49AM
No MBAs. They would actually have business case hints.
This sounds like marketing speak, or public relations.
Any time I see an article so full of titles, SR Director, etc (many invented just for this organization) I'm thinking, public relations hand out at some seminar junket. Dudes promoted out of the chain of command to someplace they can't do any harm.
No, you are mistaken. I've always had this sig.
(Score: 4, Informative) by requerdanos on Thursday June 21 2018, @03:21AM (4 children)
One of the most important things that the IEEE does is make sure that technology standards are only in the hands of the haves, not the have-nots, by keeping these standards behind a paywall and charging hundreds of dollars per document.
This roadmap, however, is available at no cost.
(Score: 4, Informative) by takyon on Thursday June 21 2018, @03:28AM
[SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday June 21 2018, @12:30PM (2 children)
Is there a single person left on this planet who is not walking around with a 1990's vintage supercomputer in their pocket? If you went back to 1990 and told someone that a poor kid in South America would own more computing power than Microsoft, who would have believed you?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday June 21 2018, @04:32PM
so what? we have more powerful slave trackers? either your standards are too low (stockholm syndrome) or you're just covering for the fact that you are complicit in the enslavement of your fellow man.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday June 22 2018, @04:08AM
Star Trek existed back then. We knew it would happen, we just didn't know how long it would take to shrink them.