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posted by martyb on Friday July 19 2019, @07:57AM   Printer-friendly
from the How-well-does-it-work-on-humans? dept.

Researchers at the Center for Geospatial Analytics at North Carolina State University recently developed a new forecasting technology [...] called PoPS, the Pest or Pathogen Spread forecast, a sophisticated yet user-friendly tool that can be used to predict the spread of potentially any species.

Computer models are the go-to method for predicting the spread of insect pests and the pathogens that cause plant disease. Running these models typically requires a lot of data––gigabytes and gigabytes of data––and being fluent in the language of computer code. Assorted software is also usually needed, and so is a familiarity with the ins and outs of model calibration and validation: that is, making sure that a model is well-matched to the data feeding it and checking that the model is doing a good job of predicting what it's supposed to.

For managers who need answers quickly, without being expert coders, the task can be daunting. Under most circumstances, preparing the data and models to simulate a pest's spread can take months to a year. Enter PoPS, a nearly fully automated framework that asks its users for a few simple inputs to output spread predictions and comparisons of management scenarios.

With PoPS, managers simply provide three years' worth of infestation information and adjust a few values on the web-based dashboard to answer pressing questions about when, where and how much a pest problem is likely to grow, and how much it may cost to stop it.


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  • (Score: 0, Troll) by Bot on Friday July 19 2019, @08:32AM (12 children)

    by Bot (3902) on Friday July 19 2019, @08:32AM (#868883) Journal

    Please enter the name of invasive pest or select one from the most recent inputs:

    - Islamic longbeards
    - Jews
    - Italians
    - LGBTAJBBQ

    --
    Account abandoned.
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @10:32AM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @10:32AM (#868900)

      - Humans

      CYA

      • (Score: 2) by Bot on Friday July 19 2019, @12:04PM

        by Bot (3902) on Friday July 19 2019, @12:04PM (#868919) Journal

        all humans are meatbags.
        not all meatbags are humans.

        --
        Account abandoned.
    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by Azuma Hazuki on Friday July 19 2019, @11:50AM (6 children)

      by Azuma Hazuki (5086) on Friday July 19 2019, @11:50AM (#868909) Journal

      How about "wild-eyed, drooling 'Christian' fanatics calling themselves Bot who do nothing but stir shit and waste electrons and forum space?" Because, gee golly Miss Molly, *I found one right here!*

      --
      I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @12:00PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @12:00PM (#868915)

        That's only one data point. According to TFS, you need three years' worth of infestation information. Better pull up those archives!

        Oh, and you also need to be a manager. Guess that disqualifies all of us.

      • (Score: 2) by Bot on Friday July 19 2019, @12:03PM (4 children)

        by Bot (3902) on Friday July 19 2019, @12:03PM (#868918) Journal

        I was included already in the Italian category, so, nope.

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        Account abandoned.
        • (Score: 2) by Chocolate on Friday July 19 2019, @03:27PM (3 children)

          by Chocolate (8044) on Friday July 19 2019, @03:27PM (#869007) Journal

          Shh don't admit that online. People might hold it against you.

          --
          Bit-choco-coin anyone?
          • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Friday July 19 2019, @05:59PM (2 children)

            by DeathMonkey (1380) on Friday July 19 2019, @05:59PM (#869078) Journal

            Italy was a fascist member of the Axis Powers, therefore, Trump supporters like them now.

            • (Score: 2) by Bot on Saturday July 20 2019, @08:32PM (1 child)

              by Bot (3902) on Saturday July 20 2019, @08:32PM (#869459) Journal

              FYI the Italian government took funds from the ministry of the environment and directed them to the Clinton foundation. 250000$.
              As usual, the ally of Italians loses.

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              Account abandoned.
              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 21 2019, @10:11AM

                by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 21 2019, @10:11AM (#869590)

                Next time, don't vote in mobsters?

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @12:02PM (1 child)

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @12:02PM (#868917)

      - managers

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @04:11PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @04:11PM (#869027)

        Scum of the earth!
        The position of manager should be a test to find contestants to be sent to populate other planets elsewhere in the galaxy

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @03:00PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @03:00PM (#868989)

      -bots

  • (Score: 2) by MostCynical on Friday July 19 2019, @09:00AM (1 child)

    by MostCynical (2589) on Friday July 19 2019, @09:00AM (#868887) Journal

    "simplified modelling for managers"

    OR, for smarter managers: "quickly decide if you need to provide management from a different state"

    --
    "I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @03:34PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday July 19 2019, @03:34PM (#869011)

      How would they track insects like white ants, bird mites, etcetera that are not easily discoverable?

  • (Score: 2) by PiMuNu on Friday July 19 2019, @09:05AM

    by PiMuNu (3823) on Friday July 19 2019, @09:05AM (#868889)

    TFS doesn't say if the tool gives the right answer.

    > making sure that a model is well-matched to the data feeding it

    Why would anyone want to do that?

    > For managers who need answers quickly, without being expert coders

    "Data analyst" is very different to "coder". A "data analyst" may write code to support their analysis.

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