A Recession Is Coming (Eventually). Here's Where You'll See It First:
Last week's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed that the economy slowed last spring. It also came exactly 10 years since the Great Recession ended, making this officially the longest expansion in American history. (Well, probably. More on that in a second.) So perhaps it's no surprise that forecasters, investors and ordinary people are increasingly asking when the next downturn will arrive.
Economists often say that "expansions don't die of old age." That is, recessions are like coin flips — just because you get heads five times in a row doesn't mean your next flip is more likely to come up tails.
Still, another recession will come eventually. Fortunately, economic expansions, unlike coin-flip streaks, usually provide some hints about when they are nearing their end — if you know where to look. Below is a guide to some of the indicators that have historically done the best job of sounding the alarm.
[...] One caveat: Economists are notoriously terrible at forecasting recessions, especially more than a few months in advance. In fact, it's possible (though unlikely) that a recession has already begun, and we just don't know it yet.
"Historically, the best that forecasters have been able to do consistently is recognize that we're in a recession once we're in one," said Tara Sinclair, an economist at George Washington University. "The dream of an early warning system is still a dream that we're working on."
The article goes on to list and expand upon these indicators which are:
1: The Unemployment Rate
2: The Yield Curve
3: The ISM Manufacturing Index
4: Consumer Sentiment
5: Choose Your Favorite
Do you think the US economy is on the verge of a recession? What have you done, if anything, in preparation for the eventual downturn?
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @06:34PM
Britain, November.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @07:00PM (3 children)
They are trying to trigger a recession before the 2020 elections.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @07:04PM (2 children)
FYI, that is a different AC. I'm the "trying to cause one" AC. We think alike, or this is just too obvious.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @08:43PM (1 child)
Your conspiracy theory needs some work. MarketWatch has been saying 2020 for some time now. It's overdue at this point and would have happened months ago if the Fed hadn't eased up.
The market crashed towards the end 2017 in my original timeline when Hillary Clinton was president, leading to enabling acts early 2020 (election was suspended). The vibe I get from the Fed in this timeline is that they want to keep interest rates as low as possible, which might stall the crash at least past the election. Trump may win in a landslide because Biden. If a landslide, it would make enabling acts for Trump even easier. WWIII begins mid to late 2021. N-day is still on schedule for 2025.
unless
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @09:18PM
Why would there be a crash? Look at the Venezuela stock index: https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/IBVC:IND [bloomberg.com]
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @07:02PM (63 children)
This is fearmongering, because democrats know that their only chance is a recession and that talking about one might cause enough fear to create one.
It's disgusting. Screw the whole economy, with people's livelihoods, just to take power. Eeeew.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @07:53PM (7 children)
Gosh you trumptards are so screwed up in the head it's unbelievable...
Fearmongering ? What about "liberals are going to take away your guns !" fearmongering ? What about "caravan of immigrant invaders at the southern border !" fearmongering ?
And whatever democrats say is lies, but whatever spews out of the filthy mouth of your beloved compulsive-liar in chief is gospel ?
You conservatards are so blindly, uterly, completely consumed by your hatred of liberals that, just like captain Ahab, you delibarately chose a known mentaly unstable psychopath, narcissist, con-man, compulsive-liar, sexual predator and child molester with more than 1300 civil lawsuits against him who's destroyed countless small businesses and ruined countless lives, risking not only your economy, but your entire country, your future, your children's future, the entire planet, everything, just for the chance of sticking it to that damned liberal white whale.
And before you pathetic retards bring up Clinton again (because you whataboutist morons always do), know that:
When the truth about Clinton's true nature came out after he was elected, people quickly moved to impeach him, which is what any decent human being would do;
But the truth about Trump's true nature was known before the election, and you disgusting lot still chose to knowingly vote for him, first in the primaries, then again for the presidency.
Would you be so forgiving if it had been your own daughter that Trump pissed-on during one of his good friend Epstein's golden shower parties on his boat with all his billionnaire friends ? I'm now convinced that you would, because nothing Trump could say or do would stop you from trying to polish that turd again, and again, and again, and that when Trump declared "I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot someone, and I still wouldn't lose any voters", he was absolutely right, for one of the few times in his miserable, wortless life.
(Score: 0, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @09:20PM (1 child)
It isn't fearmongering if it is true. That one dude even said he wanted to nuke everyone who wouldnt turn in their guns. These people are either mentally ill or caught on camera at Epstein Island or Bohemian Grove feeding on children and wearing their skin in creepy ceremonies.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:50PM
Strange that a factually correct statement is labeled as "troll": https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/eric-swalwell-gun-owners-nukes/ [snopes.com]
(note, snopes confirms Swalwell said it, and pics of the tweet prove it to be true, but for some reason gives it a "mixture" rating because Swalwell was joking -- which is weird, it may have been a joke, but he said it, or is "I was only joking" going to get to apply to everyone now? Nobody in their right mind would think it was serious as nobody thinks the US would exceed the use of conventional weapons in a war against US citizens on US soil, but he still fucking said it. It's a "true".)
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday July 29 2019, @09:55PM (2 children)
...gawwwwd-DAMN. Well-put. Wish I could mod you up more than once.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 3, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:09PM (1 child)
That AC tried to link Trump to Epstein, you all live in a different reality.
1) Trump banned Epstein from his clubs for hitting on underage women
2) Trump is the one who brought Epstein back into the public discussions in 2016
3) the prosecutor in the last Epstein case said Trump was the only one who cooperated
I'm not saying this to convince you, just to leave a record of how delusional you are to think this Epstein case will turn out bad for Trump.
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:26PM
And who can forget Trump's very first executive order was to give the government the power to confiscate the wealth of people involved with Epstein: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/executive-order-blocking-property-persons-involved-serious-human-rights-abuse-corruption/ [whitehouse.gov]
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Monday July 29 2019, @11:36PM (1 child)
There are numerous congress critters who are on record, promising to revoke the second amendment. There are lobbyists in Washington working tirelessly to get it done. There are cities in America that have revoked the second within their own jurisdictions. There are states that work just as tirelessly toward the same end - Maryland leading the charge. There is no fearmongering among the second amendment supporters, the left has established their ultimate goal quite clearly.
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:13AM
Some examples:
Feinstein: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ffI-tWh37UY [youtube.com]
Swalwell: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a76JMYH6KvQ [youtube.com]
("buy back", as if the government is the progenitor of all property -- that's new speak for "confiscation")
Jack booted smug ass thugette: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts08U2673EI [youtube.com]
Anyway, the only reason people think guns are the problem, is because of how remarkably well they have reduced violence by making it cost prohibitive for the young, strong, and large, to target everyone else, and they have done this for so ling, that people have forgotten what happens when bullies have a free pass. https://billlawrenceonline.com/carlisle-moody-handguns-stop-murders/ [billlawrenceonline.com]
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @07:56PM (5 children)
G aslight!
O bstruct!
P roject!
I guess that is all you've got when you join the party of corruption and immorality.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:32PM (4 children)
D eflecting
E vasive
M anipulating
O verbearing
C ounterfeit
R idiculous
A sshat
T yrants
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @11:09PM (3 children)
DNC would have been much easier to type and read #FailedMarketing #SAD
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @11:12PM (2 children)
D umb
N incompoop
C orruption
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:17AM (1 child)
That wasn't the N-word I was expecting.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:39PM
I know -- it was hard to not channel LBJ.
(Score: 0, Troll) by jmorris on Monday July 29 2019, @08:09PM (24 children)
A recession is the only way the 2020 race is even interesting. Since the Democrats now control most of the levers of the economy they can trigger one, bet on it. And yes you can bet on it, get to cash now and rebuy everything when i goes "on sale." A recession lasts 12-18 months and must still be hurting in the fall of 20 when most voters will become locked in.
Yeah it is a bit disgusting but it is not exactly unknown or unexpected. Recessions happen with some regularity and as the article says, it has been a record interval. Of course the MSM can't say why it has been so long, because there was little actual recovery from the "Great Recession of '08" until the failure of Obama was gone. Up til then it was endless green shoots breathlessly reported every year but little actual growth. So it really hasn't been a decade of growth. But they have to say it to avoid speaking the Truth, which they must never do.
We will always have the boom / bust cycle until we finally get rid of fractional reserve banking. Meaning we will always have recesions.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Monday July 29 2019, @08:34PM (17 children)
Colored commentary, much? How is it that, in the summer of '19, we have been experiencing a 10 year economic expansion, but it didn't really get started until Cheetodust hair took office in '17?
Speaking of crooked levers to pull: one (of hundreds) pulled in the spring of '17 was to grant full depreciation of purchases in year 1 for tax accounting. Yes, that's right Virginia, you can go out and spend all your profits on shiny new stuff and hide that income from taxation like never before! Spend now, MAG... for a little while.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2, Insightful) by jmorris on Monday July 29 2019, @09:22PM (16 children)
Read before reacting. We didn't actually have a ten year expansion. Nobody actually thinks the recession ended in the middle of 2009, it just stopped crashing. It then slid sideways until out in Obama's second term as the economy started looking beyond Obama. As it became clear it was a choice between HRC and Trump, either was seen as an improvement so investment restarted. But the charts are clear on the markets jumping up and continuing to bounce up and down but the ups have been increasing record highs; that says the markets preferred Trump's win and has liked his policies. And yeah I'm on record as agreeing with the school of thought that says what is good for Wall Street isn't always what is good for America. Things do seem better for the country at large, just not as much better as one would guess from the markets.
But the media can't say any of this without retconning their past coverage, the constant praise of Obama's economic results, the myth that Porkulus was anything but a huge theft of money that had little economic impact because of that. So officially Trump is sitting on a record expansion. Reality says four or maybe five years, but the official economic numbers are so cooked now we won't ever really know the details.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday July 29 2019, @09:39PM (9 children)
Because the great White Hope Shillary was going to fix it all? Nobody (with any sense of fiscal responsibility) bet on Trump to win.
Since when has that stopped them? The media consuming public has the collective memory of a fruitfly, and holds media outlets accountable how? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TjI5GgfNl5Q&t=21 [youtube.com]
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1, Troll) by jmorris on Monday July 29 2019, @09:54PM (8 children)
People who aren't overly politically savvy thought Hillary would be similar to Bill and the 1990s. Of course they were almost certainly wrong, not only is Hillary the more hard core Alinsky disciple, the Democratic Party of 2016 was very different from the one in the 1990s that would permit Bill's "Triangulation Strategy." But being honest, she would probably have been an improvement over Obama, especially had Congress remained in Republican control.
Trump. If they suddenly declared that he didn't get credit for a ten year record expansion, because Obama's economy really did suck for most of his eight years... can you even imagine what Trump would tweet out? It would be epic.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday July 29 2019, @10:04PM
Makes me think of a sales guy who described "bird calls" on clients - fly in, drop a little shit, fly out.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Acabatag on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:40AM
If Hillary had been elected, the ongoing ground war in Syria right now would be buoying up the economy a little. The rest of the malaise would be dragging things down, though.
(Score: 2) by legont on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:38AM (5 children)
Yes, I totally agree with what you wrote in this thread. The "great recession" ended in 2016 or so and we are to have at least a decade of great expansion.
We might get a great war as the last time back in late 30s though.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by jmorris on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:43AM (4 children)
Nah, it goes boom. Democrats control Wall Street, the Fortune 500, the FED and the media. Any one of those could yank their levers of control hard enough to tip us into recession and there is little Trump and the Republicans could do. Against all of them they are powerless. We can assume, since this is so obviously the only possible plan available to the Democrats, especially with Russia!, Russia, Russia! a dead issue, that Trump also sees it coming. He pretty much would have to have seen it coming since he started making the good economy the centerpiece of his reelection campaign. So the crafty bastard probably has a plan and will let the Democrats walk into another trap. This really is starting to get to Roadrunner and Coyote territory where the Democrats lay ever more elaborate traps that fail for no adequately explained reason. Although Trump isn't passive like Roadrunner usually is, this is more like Tom and Jerry. Or maybe Itchy and Scratchy.
But damned if I can even guess how you spring a trap out of the enemy crashing the economy. Other than catching them red handed doing it, but they can't be THAT stupid. Right?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @07:38AM (2 children)
On average, a recession doesn't hurt the 0.1% who could orchestrate one. Provided you have sufficient assets to play, you can make money whether the markets are going up or down, so long as you know which way they are going. It's also just another way to gut pension funds and seize the plebs' defaulted properties, so within that group it's probably not even a net negative.
It's possible that this is their way of recouping what they lost trying to make Hillary President. Time it right to get rid of Trump and it's a two for one deal.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:01PM
What do you mean "sufficient assets"? Anyone with money in the bank can be using it to short stocks.
(Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:32AM
That's a fallacy in most cases. If one has a lot of money, but not too much, it might work. Serious money can not reverse the position at each recession scare. Meantime perhaps shielded foreign money could come in and take over the capital for good. Playing short is a dangerous game on any level and historically people on average lose no matter the sofistication or resources.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by legont on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:23AM
Don't forget that a boom, as in take cover boom, means losing money. While certain hedge oriented types don't care or even like it, overall money will be lost. Rich and powerfull might not like it at all. In addition, democrats agenda may boil into some radical changes which would mean perhaps a decade or two of loosing money overall.
If I were Trump, I'd play this; but yes, I am not that smart and he could have a better idea.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:33PM (4 children)
Ah yes "the market". The worst way to measure the health of an economy. You'd realize that if you weren't a blithering corporate apologist.
It'll be SO MUCH FUN listening to your self-righteous bitching when the effects of Trump's policies start to sink in during the next administration. We already have the historic data, Democrats fix budget, Republicans destroy budget by giving away money to their masters. Not that some D's aren't corrupt, but at least they aren't close to 100% like your best frens riding the elephant.
The economy is not booming, there are serious problems all around the US that aren't factored into the Stock Market.
(Score: 3, Touché) by Runaway1956 on Monday July 29 2019, @11:44PM (3 children)
God, you've been drinking the partisan Kool-Aid. The one D who made that sentence look true took advantage of a construction boom, and NAFTA. The rest of them? To whom do you refer? You realize that "a chicken in every pot" isn't exactly a booming economy? It's somewhat better than a starvation economy, which is what most socialist governments eventually give their citizens.
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @11:59PM (1 child)
lol
Grow a spine dipshit, eventually you might end up with a brain!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:12AM
Nice job of shooting the messenger! Talk about dipshits, LOL!
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Wednesday July 31 2019, @12:17AM
I think slick Willie clearly had 8 years of boom, and Hopey Changey managed even better, he didn't have things overheated and ready to implode when he left office. W couldn't manage an economic expansion even with a hugely expensive war. The last Republican administration that seemed to do things well, in terms of economic competition, was the Reagan crew - Bedtime for Bonzo as the front man, but the power brokers behind him did seal the deal on the USSR, which, in retrospect, was pretty damn impressive.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @05:46PM
Care to tell us what the average rate of return on your savings looks like?
I'm tired of broke bitches who go on the internet and talk like economists.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:29AM (4 children)
"A recession is the only way the 2020 race is even interesting."
As usual you start with a stupid statement and work your way stupider. I can think of at least 3 more interesting things about 2020 than Trump throwing US under the bus to save his own skin. Nice way to try and head it off by blaming the Democrats ahead of time!
Obama really broke what was left of conservative self-respect. Seeing the Obama effigies in flames hanging from trees showed us what conservatives are willing to let pass, and every year up until now has only let that line shift further right. Now we have brown toned US citizens detained over mere suspicion, and their legal documents ignored on the chance that they are fake. Kids in cages, etc.
We're all a bit tired of having to run through the horror, except for those like you who would rather shit talk your political opponents and glorify your politicians who are busy doing all the things you fear liberals will do. It was enlightening to see you hypocrites not bat an eye when Trump said "take their guns worry about due process later."
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/376097-trump-take-the-guns-first-go-through-due-process-second [thehill.com]
That is literally one of the biggest conservatives fears, but it turns out you're spineless jelly fish.
(Score: 1, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:28AM (3 children)
How is a burning Obama effigy worse than a bloody decapitated Trump head effigy?
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/kathy-griffin-trump-head-photo-decapitation-beheading-pictures-a7764236.html [independent.co.uk]
https://spectrumreport.com/beheaded-trump-effigy-flown-at-london-march/ [spectrumreport.com]
https://bigleaguepolitics.com/portland-abolish-ice-group-decapitates-trump-effigy-with-guillotine/ [bigleaguepolitics.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:57AM
Obama was not allowed to be personally insulted, because he was considered black.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:23PM (1 child)
Hadn't seen those, they are also disgusting displays of violent rhetoric.
But hey, thanks for the link because the asshole at spectrumreport said "In scenes that would never have been allowed had it been directed at previous President Barack Obama, a man was captured by Vervima News yesterday seemingly flying around what looks like is meant to be the head of Trump, with blood dangling from his neck."
Typical hypocritical view, condemn immoral actions when directed at conservatives, applaud when done to enemies. Plays into your persecution complex. "They'd never let this happen to a BLAAAACK person cause they are special, you're just white traaaash!"
As usual your go to defense is "but liberals did it toooooo" like we all have the same flexible moral code as you. Puh leez.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Wednesday July 31 2019, @02:51AM
Didn't really read them. I was just looking for a Kathy Griffin link because she was the one I remembered.
Also, I fear you misunderstand me. Burning/hanging/decapitating in effigy is alright for both parties - my main complaint would be about the 'in effigy' part,.
(Score: 2) by Thexalon on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:29PM
Oh, so you're saying that the current expansion of the economy and reduction in unemployment is the Democrats' doing? Clearly, we need to keep them in control of most of the levers of the economy then if we want good things to happen - otherwise things might get seriously fouled up like they did in 2008 with the Republicans in charge.
Or are you saying that the organization that currently controls the Senate, Presidency, Supreme Court, and the Federal Reserve is somehow completely powerless over the economy, and it's the party that controls the House that is in control of "most of the levers of the economy"? And if so, wouldn't that make Newt Gingrich the primary cause of the dot-com boom-bust cycle back in the late 1990's?
Or are you implying that the Democrats somehow control the actions of Wall Street tycoons, even though Wall Street has never shown loyalty to any entity other than their own bank accounts?
Somehow I don't think you thought this through.
"Think of how stupid the average person is. Then realize half of 'em are stupider than that." - George Carlin
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @08:10PM
I totally think you really believe this and you're a regular soylent news poster.
(Score: 3, Interesting) by PartTimeZombie on Monday July 29 2019, @09:53PM (7 children)
As several other posters have pointed out, you're an idiot.
Goldman Sachs runs the US Treasury, and has done for a long time now regardless of whether the current regime professes to be a Republican or a Democrat.
You should forget about the Republican v Democrat thing altogether, and focus on the real fight, which is the rich v everyone else.
(Score: 2, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:33PM (6 children)
Addendum: The rich = government. By logical deduction then it is the government vs everyone else.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Monday July 29 2019, @11:38PM (5 children)
The rich run your government, yes, because they bought it.
That doesn't mean you can't get control of it back.
It won't be easy however, especially as long as you have idiots like the A/C above who has bought into their propaganda lock stock and barrel.
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:28AM (4 children)
Yes, that appears to be what Trump plans to do: Confiscate trillions of dollars from the "elite human trafficking pedophilia blackmail ring" that pervades our government, media, and corporate hierarchy.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:55AM (3 children)
I have no idea what to make of this comment. Very strange.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:29AM (2 children)
Yes, it must be very strange to someone who gets their info from fake news rather than verified facts and direct quotes.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @05:48PM (1 child)
Oh wow you have quotes!
Tell us where you like to get VERIFIED FACKTS?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:06PM
Eg, this soylent news comment: https://soylentnews.org/comments.pl?noupdate=1&sid=32849&commentsort=0&mode=threadtos&threshold=-1&highlightthresh=-1&page=1&cid=872868#commentwrap [soylentnews.org]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @10:09PM
ditto
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:44AM (12 children)
(Score: 3, Insightful) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:07AM (11 children)
As opposed to all those clever Republicans who don't participate in the economy?
As long the usual suspects continue to control the economy nobody is "talking it down".
You're still fixated on Democrats v Republicans, which is exactly what they want from you. Makes a change from your usual terror about THE JEWS™ I suppose.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @04:05AM (10 children)
As opposed to all the people buying low and selling high. I strongly suspect they won't belong to the dumbshit party.
Since there are repeated recessions, control must be limited.
Because I have posted something about the JOOS in the past year? Two maybe? It's clearly on my mind.
(Score: 2) by jmorris on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:53AM (2 children)
You do not understand. If you are a big money type you love both the boom and the bust and make huge gains from both, so long as you guess when they will occur. And if you are part of the ruling elite that decide when to go from boom to bust.....
Just as long as the routine boom bust cycle does not accidentally go out of control and create an actual meltdown, like the Great Depression. FDR's incompetent meddling turned what would have been a rough recession (and was for the rest of the world) into a downward spiral that could have ended with Venezuela like results had not a convenient World War came along.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @05:52PM (1 child)
Ah you must be talking about how trump pressures the fed to lower rates and then randomly crashes the stock market with crazy tariff talk?
I mean you drop tons of big words so you've been watching the market like a hawk I presume?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @06:08PM
Trump has "randomly crashed the stock market"? It is pretty much at all time highs, show us one of these "crashes"?
(Score: 3, Insightful) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @08:30PM (6 children)
The people who run the US don't give a toss which party is in power, as they control both of them. You can see this by the way former Goldman Sachs executives have been appointed to the role of Treasury Secretary on a regular basis, by regimes from both parties.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @09:19PM (5 children)
They'll never have to worry about the dumbshit party being in power.
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @10:07PM (4 children)
OK then. I don't know which party you're alluding to there, but whatever.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 31 2019, @02:02AM (3 children)
The people stupid enough to get panicked by news are the dumbshit party, in other words the people who listened as referred to in my earliest post in this thread. Reading comprehension > telling me what I think.
Perhaps you're still fixated on Democrats v Republicans, eh?
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday July 31 2019, @02:10AM (2 children)
Or there's this quote from your earlier post:
Try again.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Wednesday July 31 2019, @01:49PM (1 child)
(Score: 2) by PartTimeZombie on Wednesday July 31 2019, @08:00PM
Need a hand moving those goalposts?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:42PM
Proof? Oh, you have none. It just fits your narrative and you want that to be true.
On the other hand it is known that recessions do happen and are cyclical and there are yet to be any exceptions to that.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @07:20PM (2 children)
I think we're overdue for one, but we've been pushing the day of reckoning out indefinitely by the modern Western policy of cheap money and penalizing savings. Only when safer alternatives will be preferable to dumping the money in index funds will we see a stampede out of stocks.
If that happens this or next year, Trump can forget about getting reelected. So he will try to get the Fed to keep rates low, perhaps even offer negative savings rates like in Europe. Until recently, the Fed was tending away from such a policy, but Trump can be very persuasive and manipulative.
After 2020 though, nobody cares what happens.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Monday July 29 2019, @11:47PM (1 child)
Trump doesn't control the Fed any more than any other president. The Fed does what the big bankers want, and nothing more. Big banking wants to see less regulation, so if they can support Trump, they will do so. But, no, that doesn't mean Trump controls the Fed - it only means that Trump is a useful tool from the banking perspective.
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 3, Insightful) by PartTimeZombie on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:10AM
Oh gods, at last someone here gets it.
The constant "but the Democrats!!!" nonsense here was starting to get me down.
It is almost as if they have forgotten how Mr. Obama went through with Mr. Bush's bailout package for the banks the last time they crashed the economy.
(Score: 4, Touché) by rigrig on Monday July 29 2019, @07:28PM (4 children)
FTFA:
NYT editorial staff:
No one remembers the singer.
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:22AM (3 children)
Yeah, what makes me laugh is everyone here (largely not highly respected economists) chiming in with their own predictions.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:11AM
It also matters what sort of prediction you're trying to make. Predicting that it's going to start on Mar 18, 2020 is likely to be wrong (very wrong, if you're gambling heavily it's going to start exactly on that day). Predicting that it's going to be in 2020 or 2011, starting with a collapse in Chinese real estate, is specific enough to be useful, should it turn out to be true, and general enough to be somewhat forgiving to timing.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:53PM
I haven't made my prediction yet. Want to see it? Alright, hold onto your seat. My prediction is, "Shit's gonna happen!" Now, just wait, and watch. You'll see that I'm right.
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:53PM
Paraphrasing Rick and Morty, "He's not an economist?" "I assume he's qualified to be one. Who isn't?"
(Score: 4, Informative) by Alfred on Monday July 29 2019, @07:30PM (11 children)
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Monday July 29 2019, @08:29PM (3 children)
And, does it matter, really? Can you compare the economy of 2005 to 1985 in any meaningful way? Or 1985 to 1965, or 1965 to 1945?
There's always something "gamechanging" that has happened in the last 20 years or so, at least since the 1850s in the US.
🌻🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 1, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @09:26PM (1 child)
http://www.shadowstats.com/ [shadowstats.com]
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @10:21PM
Different AC, but if you are on there, don't forget their M3 measure. There is a reason why the Fed stopped publishing it, as it shows a different picture than what they want to claim is occuring.
(Score: 3, Funny) by All Your Lawn Are Belong To Us on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:57PM
Well there was Springsteen, Madonna, way before Nirvana. There was U2, and Blondie, and music still on MTV. And the two kids in High School think that it's so uncool. Because we're preoccupied. With 19, 19..... 2005.
This sig for rent.
(Score: 2) by fliptop on Monday July 29 2019, @09:09PM (1 child)
This. The unemployment rate has long been considered a lagging indicator [investopedia.com].
Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.
(Score: 2) by FatPhil on Monday July 29 2019, @09:38PM
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @09:11PM
Just look at the B.L.S. data. They don't change or abandon actual measures very often, just the preferred measures. So yes, they changed which "U" rate is "unemployment" and added "seasonal adjustment" to the figures, but the old ones are still there if you look. Same goes for inflation, money supply, confidence, and most others I can think of. Only those that are trade-dependent (think VPI or HOM) get changed all that often, but you really shouldn't use those for other reasons.
(Score: 2) by Runaway1956 on Monday July 29 2019, @11:50PM (3 children)
There is magic in numbers. If government can maintain the belief that unemployment is under 10%, the natives are content. Whatever lie it takes, government will maintain that http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 2) by Alfred on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:59PM (2 children)
(Score: 3, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Tuesday July 30 2019, @02:27PM (1 child)
I've not heard that one. But, if you're interested, the actual unemployment rate has been over 20% for quite a long while now. The chart seems to show it going over 20% very late 2008, or early 2009. I guess there may be some merit to that claim though. Young black males are hardest hit with unemployment - the statistics will bear that out, no matter where you go to find them. Especially in the inner cities, it seems that young black males are involved in more violent crime than anyone else. Out here in the rural areas, young white males seem to be marginally more violent than young black males. Damn the statistics on that one, that's just what I observe. So, yeah, maybe 25%, 30%, or 40% unemployment is conducive to violence. People with nothing to do generally go out to find something to do, even if it is self-destructive.
“I have become friends with many school shooters” - Tampon Tim Walz
(Score: 2) by Alfred on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:46PM
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Monday July 29 2019, @08:39PM (21 children)
It's a recession when your neighbor loses his job. It's a depression when you lose your job.
So... how are your neighbors doing? Are you gainfully employed, sir? Remember, bums always lose.
(Score: 5, Interesting) by fyngyrz on Monday July 29 2019, @09:44PM (20 children)
I wonder what they should call it when you still have your job, but your pay hasn't gone up, you've lost your medical coverage because it is simply unaffordable, and the cost of... pretty much everything but electronics... has gone up. While people make great money in the stock markets and the CEO's "earn" many-digit bonuses, and of course the political blunder machine rolls on relentlessly eating those hard-earned lower-class tax monies.
--
Math puns are the first sine of madness
(Score: 3, Informative) by FatPhil on Monday July 29 2019, @09:51PM (1 child)
Great minds discuss ideas; average minds discuss events; small minds discuss people; the smallest discuss themselves
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:25AM
Yup, it's pretty annoying but not nearly as ball-busting as a recession or depression.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 5, Touché) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday July 29 2019, @09:58PM (17 children)
"Late-stage capitalism." Or "Reaganomics coming home to roost." Sometimes when I can't sleep I imagine that senile goddamn clownshoe Reagan howling and writhing and screaming in hellfire, and it helps.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 2) by The Mighty Buzzard on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:24AM
Last time we saw it was under Carter, I think you'll find.
My rights don't end where your fear begins.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @12:31AM
>Late-stage capitalism
You mean socialist paradise, all the new productivity gains involve *reducing* manpower requirements. The productive proles enjoy what they can from the fruits of their labor through consumerism and are occasionally rewarded richly by the system for their participation. No, there are no hidden caches of iPhones, it's all sold out.
The governments/megacorps will play musical chairs with resource allocation to keep the system going just a bit longer. There is still too much to lose to fall back into the state of nature.
(Score: 1) by khallow on Tuesday July 30 2019, @01:23AM (4 children)
Sounds like time to go back to early-stage capitalism. After all, no other economic system has this good a late-stage.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:13PM (3 children)
You'll need to redistribute all that wealth and put all those natural resources back into the ground before you can do that, pal. And good luck undoing all the low-hanging fruit research we've already done; you can't discover oil or fusion or a moon landing or a specific drug twice.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Friday August 02 2019, @12:00PM (2 children)
There's still plenty of resources, and wealth was distributed worse than it is now. Something wrong with the narrative again, pal.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:40PM (1 child)
Wealth on paper means jack and shit. Fiat, floating currency is a con game. There are not "plenty of resources," the big one for cheap energy has been mostly burned and chucked into the atmosphere as CO2, and wealth was distributed worse than it was now *prior to World War II."
Something's wrong with the narrative all right. Yours.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM
(Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:58AM (8 children)
Go back to reddit. I cringe whenever I see that.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Thursday August 01 2019, @10:25PM (7 children)
Tone trolling counts for jack and squat, but nice try. I'm not wrong, either; capitalism, unchecked by proper regulation, exhibits a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop whereby wealth, assets, and resources in general become increasingly and increasingly-quickly concentrated in the hands of a few actors. We're very close to the point of breakdown and degeneration into feudalism, i.e., in the late stage.
What was your argument again? Oh, right, nothing but tone trolling.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0, Flamebait) by khallow on Friday August 02 2019, @12:38PM (6 children)
The fantasy spinning continues. If this is the situation, then why aren't we seeing huge increases in worker deaths? Pollution? Fraud and thievery at the corporate level?
Where's the evidence, pal?
Perhaps, though once again, where's the evidence? I'll note also that a lot of the dynamics that push towards feudalism, like professional licensing, zoning, and government entitlements, aren't capitalist in nature. It could well be late state something, but late stage capitalism? You need evidence of a connection.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Saturday August 03 2019, @01:38PM (5 children)
You re willfully blind. Wealth has been concentrating at the top for almost 40 goddamn years, the data are out there if you but care to look, and it would take less than a minute of Googling.
There is none so blind as he who refuses to see. I get it, you're never gonna change; you love, love, deepthroating that jackboot that's been stomping on your skull. You think you're a temporarily-embarrassed millionaire. You think you're one of the boys in the club. Pal, you ain't; the "boys in the club" don't even know you exist, and would sooner drop you feet-first in a running meatgrinder and stand under the spigot to shower in your blood as you howl and scream in mortal agony.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 1) by khallow on Sunday August 04 2019, @10:51PM (4 children)
Wealth on paper has been. Guess what you said [soylentnews.org] about that.
And of course, such wealth measures completely ignore future income, the greatest sort of wealth for debtors.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Monday August 05 2019, @10:21PM (3 children)
Do me a huge favor and wake the entire world up to this fact then, please. Because until people realize this, they're just going to keep sleepwalking along until reality wakes them up.
I know you won't do any such thing of course. Your worldview depends on the nightmare continuing. You actually think you're going to get out of this scot-free. You seriously think you're one of the elite down on his luck, and Any Minute Now (TM) they'll be sending the mothership along to beam you up. How very droll...
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:35AM (2 children)
Why? The disease is the cure. That's one of the nice things about market-based economies. They fix a lot of stuff without intervention.
What nightmare? The world is better than it's ever been. That's what counts with me.
Well, at least I think, eh?
Ah, yes, can't let rational thought get in the way of the narrative. I have no such expectations, of course, nor ever said otherwise. But that sort of fact never slips into your fantasies.
(Score: 2) by Azuma Hazuki on Tuesday August 06 2019, @11:45AM (1 child)
Do you really think this entire site hasn't got your number by now, you self-serving fool? None of your actions or posts make sense in any other context. You're trying to deepthroat the boot that's stomping on your face, in the hope that you'll get your own pair of stompin' boots Someday Soon (TM). You are a parody of yourself.
I am "that girl" your mother warned you about...
(Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 06 2019, @04:09PM
You are projecting hard today.
By your context, which unfortunately, isn't firing on all cylinders. I think most other people just don't have that problem.
And of course, can't forget the narrative no matter how nonsensical it gets. I have no interest or expectation of getting my own jack boots - something which I've mentioned before.
This is the same bullshit you've pulled out dozens of times before. I seem to recall that you've been exposed to critical thinking ideas and techniques before. It's time you started using them.
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday July 30 2019, @03:28PM
Mama mia you triggered the idiots! Saint Ronnie noooooooo.