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posted by martyb on Thursday February 27 2020, @03:46PM   Printer-friendly

Clinical trials of remdesivir, an experimental drug to treat COVID-19, have begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. More detail is provided in an article posted by the National Institutes of Health. The initial trial will involve 400 patients and will be conducted internationally but is beginning in Nebraska. There are currently 15 patients being monitored at UNMC, 13 of whom have tested positive for COVID-19. According to the daily update from UNMC, all of the 15 patients are now in the National Quarantine Unit, which has 20 beds. Previously, some of the patients had been in the Nebraska Biocontainment Unit, which is the largest facility of its kind in the country and had previously been used to treat ebola patients.

Note: The February 25 edition of the daily update mentioned the clinical trial, so there's a good possibility that additional updates will be posted in UNMC's daily update. The additional discussion may help explain why the trial is beginning in Nebraska even though there haven't been any cases that reported there -- all of the COVID-19 patients at UNMC were either sent there originally or were previously quarantined at Camp Ashland or were transported there from elsewhere.

Australia has activated its emergency response plan for global pandemics as the coronavirus spreads rapidly outside of China. The plan to deal with a large scale coronovirus outbreak is named "The COVID-19 plan". The plan notes that there are three levels of outbreak to consider, with a "high" outbreak being comparable to the extreme 1918 "Spanish flu" which infected one third of Australians and killed between 50 to 100 million people globally.

As the potential for the coronavirus to break out into a pandemic increases, people are flocking to stores for hand sanitizer with shelves in Australia and other countries out of stock of the items.

If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.


Original Submission #1   Original Submission #2   Original Submission #3

Related Stories

CoronaVirus (SARS-CoV-2) Roundup 2020-03-12 93 comments

Even though it has only been a short while since our last round-up there are 22 separate stories merged into this round-up. Many report duplicate news but, nevertheless, we have tried to distill the important elements of each submission.

Firstly, there is some confusion regarding the actual names that are reported for the virus, the disease that it causes, and names frequently seen in media reporting. From https://www.nature.com/articles/s41564-020-0695-z:

The present outbreak of a coronavirus-associated acute respiratory disease called coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is the third documented spillover of an animal coronavirus to humans in only two decades that has resulted in a major epidemic. The Coronaviridae Study Group (CSG) of the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for developing the classification of viruses and taxon nomenclature of the family Coronaviridae, has assessed the placement of the human pathogen, tentatively named 2019-nCoV, within the Coronaviridae. Based on phylogeny, taxonomy and established practice, the CSG recognizes this virus as forming a sister clade to the prototype human and bat severe acute respiratory syndrome coronaviruses (SARS-CoVs) of the species Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus, and designates it as SARS-CoV-2.

In order to facilitate communication, the CSG proposes to use the following naming convention for individual isolates: SARS-CoV-2/host/location/isolate/date. While the full spectrum of clinical manifestations associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections in humans remains to be determined, the independent zoonotic transmission of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 highlights the need for studying viruses at the species level to complement research focused on individual pathogenic viruses of immediate significance. This will improve our understanding of virus–host interactions in an ever-changing environment and enhance our preparedness for future outbreaks.

There is much more information at the link provided.

Secondly, as this is a fusion of stories received over the last week or so take all quoted figures of casualties as possibly out-of-date. At the time of merging these stories (12 Mar 20) there have been 127,863 confirmed cases world-wide resulting in 4,717 deaths. 68,309 people have already recovered with the remainder either in self-imposed or advisory isolation, in basic hospital care and a relatively small number in critical care. The pandemic has affected 116 countries/regions. Source: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 - a graphical display produced by Johns Hopkins University (JHU).

Many countries have taken emergency measures to restrict travel or large gatherings of people. As this is a very fluid situation we suggest you refer to the media of any specific country in which you have an interest. President Trump has banned transatlantic air travel from countries in mainland Europe to the USA from Friday 2020-03-13 at 23:59 (no timezone stated) for a period initially of 30 days, and air travel within Europe is also significantly disrupted.

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  • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:03PM

    by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:03PM (#963550)
  • (Score: 5, Insightful) by DannyB on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:10PM (48 children)

    by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:10PM (#963556) Journal

    Why the interest or concern about the Coronavirus? Hasn't the administration made it clear that the health of the stock market is more important than the health of citizens? And that the fake news is playing up the Coronavirus panic? And Coronavirus isn't really a concern, that we have maybe like really only ten actual cases. Finally, corporations (which are people too!) don't get the Coronavirus.

    --
    In the name of the lollipop guild, we wish to welcome you to munchkin land!
    • (Score: 3, Insightful) by ikanreed on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:26PM (5 children)

      by ikanreed (3164) on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:26PM (#963570) Journal

      Coronavirus made number go down, though.

      • (Score: 3, Informative) by DeathMonkey on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:57PM (4 children)

        by DeathMonkey (1380) on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:57PM (#963654) Journal

        Australia has activated its emergency response plan for global pandemics

        US would activate out own response plan for global pandemics except for the fact that Trump fired all the people responsible for it.

        Did Trump Fire the US Pandemic Response Team? Yep, he sure did! [snopes.com]

        • (Score: 2) by ikanreed on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:20PM (3 children)

          by ikanreed (3164) on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:20PM (#963671) Journal

          Not to worry, our military budget is bigger than ever, we'll just white phosphorus the sick

          • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:28PM (2 children)

            by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:28PM (#963759) Journal

            President Xi, is that you?

            --
            Washington DC delenda est.
            • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:40PM (1 child)

              by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:40PM (#963773)

              Netanyahu; it's the Israelis white-phosphoring the natives.

              • (Score: -1, Troll) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @03:04AM

                by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @03:04AM (#963922)

                https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ayman2.jpg [wikipedia.org]
                Careful, image is shocking and could make you think "anti-semitic" thoughts.

    • (Score: 2, Insightful) by slinches on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:40PM (24 children)

      by slinches (5049) on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:40PM (#963583)

      Would you rather the President came out in a full hazmat suit and told everyone to go full doomsday prep and lock themselves inside because their neighbors are a potential threat of infection?

      While Coronavirus is a serious issue, the level of panic that has been spreading throughout the world and being fanned by media reports isn't warranted (or helpful, even if it was). The bigger risk right now is panicked overreactions like hoarding of resources, closure of public services and fear of anyone who appears sick. The way I see it, the leader of our country downplaying the severity somewhat while recognizing that there is a concern, requesting additional funding and appointing the VP to execute emergency planning are all the right thing to do to minimize the negative outcomes overall.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:42PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:42PM (#963586)

        Would you rather the President came out in a full hazmat suit and told everyone to go full doomsday prep and lock themselves inside because their neighbors are a potential threat of infection?

        No, I want more time to grab supplies before everyone else does.

      • (Score: 5, Funny) by DannyB on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:56PM (3 children)

        by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:56PM (#963598) Journal

        We can just build a wall to keep Coronavirus out. Call it a national emergency. Steal funds from children's school lunch programs to pay for it.

        --
        In the name of the lollipop guild, we wish to welcome you to munchkin land!
        • (Score: 2) by slinches on Thursday February 27 2020, @05:12PM

          by slinches (5049) on Thursday February 27 2020, @05:12PM (#963610)

          Good point, Trump is really blowing it passing up on this opportunity to push his agenda. As Obama's Chief of Staff said "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste."

        • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @08:26PM

          by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @08:26PM (#963717)

          Build the wall. Keep the Corona virus out of our domestic beer.

        • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:32PM

          by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:32PM (#963765) Journal

          We can just build a wall to keep Coronavirus out. Call it a national emergency. Steal funds from children's school lunch programs to pay for it.

          Way ahead of you, man. He got that shit built, like, 5000 years ago. Even called it the "Great Wall of China" to fool those guys into paying for it.

          Obama was a 3-dimensional chess player, Trump's a 4-dimensional chess player.

          --
          Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: 4, Touché) by DeathMonkey on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:55PM

        by DeathMonkey (1380) on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:55PM (#963650) Journal

        Would you rather the President came out in a full hazmat suit and told everyone to go full doomsday prep and lock themselves inside because their neighbors are a potential threat of infection?

        You mean how he reacted to Ebola when Obama was President?

        Yes, I'd prefer he NOT give us a sequel.

      • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:14PM (11 children)

        by fustakrakich (6150) on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:14PM (#963666) Journal

        Our biggest risks right now comes from a for profit medical system that will make testing and treatment largely unaffordable to most people. There seems to be no attempt to make any of it freely available in the US.

        --
        La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
        • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:33PM (10 children)

          by DeathMonkey (1380) on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:33PM (#963680) Journal

          Bernie Sanders IS the attempt.

          • (Score: 1, Disagree) by fustakrakich on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:43PM (9 children)

            by fustakrakich (6150) on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:43PM (#963691) Journal

            "Nobody likes him"!

            --
            La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
            • (Score: 2) by DeathMonkey on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:54PM

              by DeathMonkey (1380) on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:54PM (#963699) Journal
            • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @08:43PM (7 children)

              by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @08:43PM (#963728)

              You are really outing yourself as a shill or an incel sitting in an Alabama basement. You have to actively ignore the news to think Sanders isn't popular. He is the most popular candidate around by far, and that is pretty easy to tell even with the MSM's attempts to hide the fact.

              So, are you a shill or just ignorant? Because an honest person would acknowledge reality and say they support Trump or Bloomberg because they reflect the grubby little light of greed that warms their heart.

              • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:02PM

                by fustakrakich (6150) on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:02PM (#963742) Journal

                :-) Self-righteous indignation noted, mr. funnyman

                Please, do try to keep up... [google.com]

                --
                La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
              • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:38PM (4 children)

                by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:38PM (#963772) Journal

                It is true Sanders is popular with Sanders supporters. The other half of the Democratic party fears and despises him/them. He fares less well with Independents and Republicans.

                I like Bernie, but if he becomes the nominee Trump is going to slaughter him.

                --
                Washington DC delenda est.
                • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:44PM

                  by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:44PM (#963777)

                  I like Bernie, but if he becomes the nominee Trump is going to slaughter him.

                  Like last time, when they picked Hillary so she could slaughter Trump?

                • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:45PM (2 children)

                  by fustakrakich (6150) on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:45PM (#963780) Journal

                  if he becomes the nominee Trump is going to slaughter him.

                  Or maybe the non voters will step in. We'll see if they feel differently about him than the rest. I hope they remember to help elect a congress to back him up, or it's a wasted effort if they want to undo the last 50 years.

                  --
                  La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
                  • (Score: 2) by Phoenix666 on Thursday February 27 2020, @10:16PM (1 child)

                    by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday February 27 2020, @10:16PM (#963816) Journal

                    Baby Boomers are not going to vote for a candidate that praises Cuba and the Soviet Union. Millennials would, but so far the youth turnout is lower than 2016.

                    Also, Bernie is old and has already suffered a heart attack on the campaign trail. If he got the nomination and did something monumentally stupid like choosing Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as a running mate he'd be more than slaughtered. Those things always matter a lot to some voters.

                    You are also right on about his needing a Congress to back him up. He would certainly not have that, because every Republican and half the Democratic members would absolutely blockade anything and everything he'd want to do. He'd be a lame duck from Day 1.

                    I would like real national healthcare and a green new deal, but we'll never get it with Bernie. I honestly think we'll get to a carbon neutral civilization faster and more effectively with guys like Elon Musk doing it as a profit-making activity than we will through Bernie's socialist approach.

                    --
                    Washington DC delenda est.
                    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:20AM

                      by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:20AM (#964015)

                      I'm GenX. I don't care about the Democrat Party's direction, nor whether Sanders finds favor with some things in Cuba or the Soviet Union.
                      If I get to vote for common people politics under Sanders, I will vote for him. Otherwise I'll vote for Trump.

              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:22PM

                by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:22PM (#964287)

                Alabama doesn't have basements. They have root cellars. The incels are living in the root cellars with all the other fruits and nuts.

      • (Score: 5, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @01:30AM (1 child)

        by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @01:30AM (#963892)

        1) Trump was pretty incoherent during his briefing. He wasn't just stumbling over big scientific words. He was stumbling over reading basic policy details from the teleprompter. That suggests a degree of unfamiliarity with what he's discussing and raises questions about how carefully he's considered what the response should be.

        2) Trump's wishy-washy comments about funding about whether Congress should approve 2.5 or 8.5 billion dollars is a problem. There hasn't been adequate consideration given to the appropriate federal response and the necessary funding to implement it. The implementation of many of the containment and mitigation strategies will need to happen at the state and local levels. They don't have enough money to carry out those measures on their own so federal assistance will be needed. Even Richard Shelby, who is loyal to Trump, has been harshly critical of the administration.

        3) Trump's messaging is quite a bit different from what top scientists are saying. It's a big problem when Trump gives a speech about this and contradicts the experts. He needs to be reinforcing what the experts are saying, not contradicting them.

        4) Pence is the wrong person to lead the coronavirus response. His failures in responding to HIV in Indiana should disqualify him. he put his personal philosophy and beliefs ahead of the guidance from experts. Pence got it wrong then. Trump praised how Pence handled the situation in Indiana, which is disingenuous. Pence cannot be trusted to make good decisions about responding to the virus. Trump should have delegated the responsibility to someone who has a background in science and has experience with the federal bureaucracy.

        5) Why does the response team include Steve Mnuchin and Larry Kudlow? I question whether Mnuchin should be involved, but Kudlow should be disqualified just like Pence. Kudlow directly contracted statements coming from the CDC, almost certainly to influence the stock market at the expense of providing accurate and consistent information to the people. The presence of Mnuchin and Kudlow on the task force suggests that Trump is still more concerned about the economy than the actual impacts of the virus.

        6) Trump should have immediately amended his budget request to Congress to remove the requested budget cuts to CDC. It is unthinkable that Trump is proposing to cut funding to CDC, including their infectious disease containment and mitigation programs, while in the midst of the coronavirus crisis. That's unacceptable.

        7) Not directly related to the briefing, but it's very concerning that Pence wants to approve the messaging from any federal officials about the virus. I absolutely understand the need to ensure consistent messaging but there are ample reasons to distrust Pence. The administration has a history of contradicting scientists and demanding to control statements about other crises like Hurricane Dorian. The requirement that officials, apparently including those at CDC and NIH, get Pence's approval is extremely concerning because of the potential to order the scientists to provide inaccurate information, especially when there is a significant chance of it affecting the stock market.

        8) Trump didn't outline an actual plan for responding to the coronavirus. He spent most of the time downplaying the threat, patting himself on the back, and saying "I told you so" about the travel restrictions. He was happy to list off a ranking of the most prepared countries for a pandemic. But there was little information about future plans when the virus starts spreading more in the US. This goes back to to the disorganization, mixed messaging, and general appearance that the administration is unprepared.

        Trump needed to reassure people that they should trust the guidance of CDC and NIH. The experts have said it's a matter of time before there is community spreading of the virus. Trump should have affirmed this rather than casting uncertainty on the analysis from top scientists. Trump needed to make it clear that the administration wasn't going to lowball the request for funding. He needed to make it clear that there are well-defined plans in place for when the virus starts spreading more widely in the US. The briefing wasn't reassuring at all. In fact, it reinforced the idea that the administration really doesn't have a plan in place and hasn't given sufficient consideration to various levels of response depending on how the disease spreads in the US. Yes, Trump needs to reassure people about the situation. You do that by coherently providing the facts and making it clear that the administration is well-prepared for the range of situations that may arise.

        • (Score: 2) by Coward, Anonymous on Friday February 28 2020, @03:52PM

          by Coward, Anonymous (7017) on Friday February 28 2020, @03:52PM (#964140) Journal

          The experts have said it's a matter of time before there is community spreading of the virus.

          The US has not been testing for community spread [statnews.com], so it's wrong to say that it's not occurring. The diagnostic data to make an appropriate public health response (e.g. close schools, ban large meetings) do not exist in the US. The US should not be a straggler country when it comes to testing.

      • (Score: 3, Touché) by ilPapa on Friday February 28 2020, @03:39AM (3 children)

        by ilPapa (2366) on Friday February 28 2020, @03:39AM (#963937) Journal

        Would you rather the President came out in a full hazmat suit and told everyone to go full doomsday prep and lock themselves inside because their neighbors are a potential threat of infection?

        No, I would rather the President found someone infected with a bad case of the coronavirus and french-kissed them.

        --
        You are still welcome on my lawn.
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:31PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:31PM (#964289)

          Trump is a germaphobe so I imagine the coronavirus is driving him crazyier.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:51PM (1 child)

            by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:51PM (#964297)

            Hope someone is coughing during a cabinet meeting.

            • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @08:11PM

              by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @08:11PM (#964309)

              And coughing during his rallies.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:43PM (12 children)

      by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:43PM (#963590)

      "It's just a flu, bro." -- Drumpf

      • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:11PM (11 children)

        by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:11PM (#963631) Journal

        My national leaders tell me that the flu is far worse than Coronavirus. So why are we even talking about Coronavirus?

        All those other stupid countries keep talking about coronavirus. Germany warns it is at the beginning of a coronavirus epidemic. Japan closing all schools nationally over it. Did Japan ever close all its schools over "the flew flue bro"?

        --
        In the name of the lollipop guild, we wish to welcome you to munchkin land!
        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:16PM (2 children)

          by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:16PM (#963667)

          My national leaders tell me that the flu is far worse than Coronavirus. So why are we even talking about Coronavirus?

          Because the media want to pump up the common cold to the bubonic plague for advertising eyeballs.

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:18PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:18PM (#963670)

            ok coofer

          • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @10:54PM

            by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @10:54PM (#963834)

            pump up the common cold to the bubonic plague for advertising eyeballs

            That, and it's the next attempt to torpedo the Trump economy in order to get Warren elected in November.

        • (Score: 3, Troll) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @01:06AM (7 children)

          by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @01:06AM (#963888)

          30,000,000 got the flu so far this year, and 30,000 died or 0.1 percent.

          So far 7 percent of the people who have gotten COVID-19 have died.

          So for the same 30,000,000 infected, you'll see over 2,000,000 deaths instead of 30,000!

          It's currently 70 times more lethal!

          Not to mention it takes up to two weeks to show symptoms, and it can last 10 days on a doorknob.

          • (Score: 2) by quietus on Friday February 28 2020, @08:24AM (6 children)

            by quietus (6328) on Friday February 28 2020, @08:24AM (#964030) Journal

            No. Your figures are completely bogus -- where did you get them?
            For Europe, 40,000 people die every year from the flu. The fatality rate for corona according to WHO estimate lies around 2%. It varies between regions, in the range of 0.1% and 4%.

            John Hopkins Institute offers a reliable monitor of the situation. The Lancet has a special section dedicated to all the known medical info about covid-19, and then ofcourse there's the WHO itself.

            • (Score: 2) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @08:46AM (2 children)

              by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @08:46AM (#964035)

              From:
              https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#case-dayly-outchina [worldometers.info]

              Currently Infected
              44,211
              Mild Condition
              36,120
              (82%)
              Serious or Critical
              8,091
              (18%)

              Cases with Outcome
              39,495
              Recovered/Discharged
              36,636
              (93%)
              Deaths
              2,859
              (7%)

              From:
              https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ [worldometers.info]

              How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
              The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease.

              Once an epidemic has ended, it is calculated with the formula: deaths / cases.

              But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients." [8]

              (Methods for Estimating the Case Fatality Ratio for a Novel, Emerging Infectious Disease - Ghani et al, American Journal of Epidemiology).

              In other words, current deaths belong to a total case figure of the past, not to the current case figure in which the outcome (recovery or death) of a proportion (the most recent cases) hasn't yet been determined.

              The correct formula, therefore, would appear to be:

              CFR = deaths at day.x / cases at day.x-{T}
              (where T = average time period from case confirmation to death)

              This would constitute a fair attempt to use values for cases and deaths belonging to the same group of patients.

              One issue can be that of determining whether there is enough data to estimate T with any precision, but it is certainly not T = 0 (what is implicitly used when applying the formula current deaths / current cases to determine CFR during an ongoing outbreak).

              Let's take, for example, the data at the end of February 8, 2020: 813 deaths (cumulative total) and 37,552 cases (cumulative total) worldwide.

              If we use the formula (deaths / cases) we get:

              813 / 37,552 = 2.2% CFR (flawed formula).

              With a conservative estimate of T = 7 days as the average period from case confirmation to death, we would correct the above formula by using February 1 cumulative cases, which were 14,381, in the denominator:

              Feb. 8 deaths / Feb. 1 cases = 813 / 14,381 = 5.7% CFR (correct formula, and estimating T=7).

              T could be estimated by simply looking at the value of (current total deaths + current total recovered) and pair it with a case total in the past that has the same value. For the above formula, the matching dates would be January 26/27, providing an estimate for T of 12 to 13 days. This method of estimating T uses the same logic of the following method, and therefore will yield the same result.

              An alternative method, which has the advantage of not having to estimate a variable, and that is mentioned in the American Journal of Epidemiology study cited previously as a simple method that nevertheless could work reasonably well if the hazards of death and recovery at any time t measured from admission to the hospital, conditional on an event occurring at time t, are proportional, would be to use the formula:

              CFR = deaths / (deaths + recovered)

              which, with the latest data available, would be equal to:

              2,859 / (2,859 + 36,636) = 7% CFR (worldwide)

              If we now exclude cases in mainland China, using current data on deaths and recovered cases, we get:

              71 / (71 + 397) = 15.2% CFR (outside of mainland China)

              The sample size above is extremely limited, but this discrepancy in mortality rates, if confirmed as the sample grows in size, could be explained with a higher case detection rate outside of China especially with respect to Wuhan, where priority had to be initially placed on severe and critical cases, given the ongoing emergency.

              Unreported cases would have the effect of decreasing the denominator and inflating the CFR above its real value. For example, assuming 10,000 total unreported cases in Wuhan and adding them back to the formula, we would get a CFR of 5.8% (quite different from the CFR of 7% based strictly on confirmed cases).

              .

              • (Score: 3, Insightful) by quietus on Friday February 28 2020, @09:30AM

                by quietus (6328) on Friday February 28 2020, @09:30AM (#964045) Journal

                No. CFR is number of deaths out of total number of infections, not out of number of recoveries. Total number of infections equals total number of recoveries (i.e. not infected anymore) + current number of infections. End result: about 2%.

                Finally: why would worldometer be any more reliable than The Lancet, or John Hopkins, the Mayo Clinic, WHO, Nature or any other medical/ scientific publication/organisation?

              • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Friday February 28 2020, @02:50PM

                by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Friday February 28 2020, @02:50PM (#964121) Journal

                Careful, comrade!

                The Ministry of Truth will not like this.

                --
                In the name of the lollipop guild, we wish to welcome you to munchkin land!
            • (Score: 2) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @08:56AM (1 child)

              by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @08:56AM (#964039)

              For the flu:

              https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html [cdc.gov]

              CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza

              • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:47PM

                by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @07:47PM (#964296)

                Mortality seems to be in the range of the 1918-1919 Spanish Influenza pandemic.

            • (Score: 2) by EETech1 on Friday February 28 2020, @09:03AM

              by EETech1 (957) on Friday February 28 2020, @09:03AM (#964040)

              How long it can survive on a surface:

              https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/coronaviruses-how-long-can-they-survive-on-surfaces#How-long-do-coronaviruses-persist? [medicalnewstoday.com]

              How long do coronaviruses persist?
              The first section of the new paper focuses on how long coronaviruses can survive on inanimate surfaces, such as tables and door handles. The authors show that, depending on the material and the conditions, human coronaviruses can remain infectious from 2 hours to 9 days.

              At temperatures of around 4°C or 39.2oF, certain versions of the coronavirus could remain viable for up to 28 days. At temperatures of 30–40°C (86–104°F), coronaviruses tended to persist for a shorter time.

              At room temperature, a coronavirus responsible for the common cold (HCoV-229E) persisted significantly longer in 50% humidity than 30% humidity. Overall, the authors conclude:

              “Human coronaviruses can remain infectious on inanimate surfaces at room temperature for up to 9 days. At a temperature of 30°C [86°F] or more, the duration of persistence is shorter. Veterinary coronaviruses have been shown to persist even longer for 28 d[ays].

    • (Score: 2) by Thexalon on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:44PM (1 child)

      by Thexalon (636) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:44PM (#963591)

      Finally, corporations (which are people too!) don't get the Coronavirus.

      Yeah, but their upper managements and boards of directors do. That's why they're all freaked out: If a few million ordinary workers die or something, no big deal, but viruses don't care about money or social status.

      --
      The only thing that stops a bad guy with a compiler is a good guy with a compiler.
      • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:55PM

        by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:55PM (#963597) Journal

        But some viruses are about morality. And about some people being lower or more dirty than everyone else.

        Until, the mayor's daughter gets diagnosed and it must be quietly hushed up.

        --
        In the name of the lollipop guild, we wish to welcome you to munchkin land!
    • (Score: 2) by cykros on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:06PM (1 child)

      by cykros (989) on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:06PM (#963629)

      A Covid19 treatment is likely to land some very hefty revenue streams for the drug manufacturer that gets it through. Revenues sometimes lead to earnings, and once in awhile, the stock market cares about those (sometimes, just the revenue alone is enough, though after the WeWork fiasco, folks are really starting to want companies to, you know, actually make money once in awhile).

      • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:14PM

        by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:14PM (#963634) Journal

        If only the companies could make money.

        And pay their taxes.

        --
        In the name of the lollipop guild, we wish to welcome you to munchkin land!
  • (Score: 4, Interesting) by fustakrakich on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:58PM (8 children)

    by fustakrakich (6150) on Thursday February 27 2020, @04:58PM (#963599) Journal

    President Pharma Boy has it all under control. Hope you can afford the stuff... [businessinsider.com]

    --
    La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
    • (Score: 0, Troll) by Ethanol-fueled on Thursday February 27 2020, @05:58PM (5 children)

      by Ethanol-fueled (2792) on Thursday February 27 2020, @05:58PM (#963628) Homepage

      Huh, it seems all the real crashing started happening after Weinstein was convicted rather than a legitimate concern for the virus. For example, those Silicon Valley (((executives))) all stepping down at once.

      CIA/Mossad's blackmail ring is being dismantled and CIA/Mossad are trying to crash the economy to punish Trump. I wouldn't be surprised if the CIA/Mossad had a part in spreading this bioweapon, as the Talmud states that it is okay to kill somebody even if one only suspects that that somebody may eventually try to kill them later. If you saw Trump's press conference, you'd see that the (((lady))) standing close to him was wearing a funeral-black dress with a coronavirus pin and smirked with the dupers-delight when he mentioned "vaccines."

      So chances are that the cure might be worse than the disease, and if they try to force the cure on everybody under threat of imprisonment, it's time to grab your supplies and bug out! Good thing the next 6 months are going to be Spring and Summer!

      • (Score: -1, Offtopic) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:21PM (3 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:21PM (#963636)

        Weinstein did nothing wrong. Those hoes wanted to be movie stars, so they slobbed the knob.

        • (Score: 1) by Ethanol-fueled on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:24PM

          by Ethanol-fueled (2792) on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:24PM (#963638) Homepage

          I totally agree but they needed a cover to execute him (or disappear him back to Israel under cover of death).

        • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:50PM (1 child)

          by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:50PM (#963649)

          Weinstein did nothing wrong.

          This is true. He and Assange et al are mere foils for our powerful friends. I'm not sure what Weinstein did to become a target. Must've been a matter of convenient timing.

          • (Score: 4, Informative) by Phoenix666 on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:40PM

            by Phoenix666 (552) on Thursday February 27 2020, @09:40PM (#963774) Journal

            Let me be the first to say it: Weinstein didn't kill himself.

            --
            Washington DC delenda est.
      • (Score: -1, Flamebait) by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @08:23PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Thursday February 27 2020, @08:23PM (#963713)
    • (Score: 2) by DannyB on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:12PM

      by DannyB (5839) Subscriber Badge on Thursday February 27 2020, @06:12PM (#963633) Journal

      The end of the world will be traced back to the Mars company introducing the blue M&M.

      --
      In the name of the lollipop guild, we wish to welcome you to munchkin land!
    • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Friday February 28 2020, @05:45AM

      by fustakrakich (6150) on Friday February 28 2020, @05:45AM (#963980) Journal

      They killed the link to that story. Apparently too embarrassing.

      Here's another link [forbes.com]

      --
      La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
  • (Score: 2) by takyon on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:29PM (1 child)

    by takyon (881) <takyonNO@SPAMsoylentnews.org> on Thursday February 27 2020, @07:29PM (#963678) Journal

    Iran's vice president for women and family affairs has contracted coronavirus, state media says [thehill.com]

    Masoumeh Ebtekar, Iran’s vice president for women and family affairs, has contracted the coronavirus, CBS reported Thursday, citing Iranian state media.

    Ebtekar, who served as an English-language spokesperson for Iran during the 1979 hostage crisis after Iranian protesters seized the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, is reportedly exhibiting only mild symptoms and has not been hospitalized. Ebtekar is the fourth Iranian senior official to contract it.

    The nation has seen one of the highest number of coronavirus cases both in the Middle East and in any country outside China, with 254 confirmed cases nationwide and at least 26 deaths. Earlier this week, Tehran announced Iraj Harirchi, the top Iranian official responsible for dealing with the virus, had also contracted it.

    --
    [SIG] 10/28/2017: Soylent Upgrade v14 [soylentnews.org]
    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @12:16AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @12:16AM (#963876)

      Fucking brainless jihadis. This dingbat should be quarantined before she infects more people, or is she counting on Mohammad filtering out the virus particles she is spreading.

  • (Score: 2, Informative) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @12:24AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @12:24AM (#963878)

    I submitted the article and I have a position at a different campus in the university system. Prior to today, there hadn't been any communication between the university administration and employees or students. That seemed to be consistent with other universities. As of today, more study abroad students are being recalled. Also, the administration is examining the possibility of moving classes online [journalstar.com] and appropriate measures to take in the residence halls. I suspect these conversations are finally starting to take place at other universities as well. While it's probably less of an issue with younger children like elementary school students, there's a distinct possibility that universities might have to limit what classes actually meet in person. On a smaller scale, faculty were encouraged to make arrangements to do coursework and complete assignments online last spring during the Nebraska flooding. It wasn't at the scale of this, but faculty were asked to accommodate students who were staying in their communities after spring break.

    It is a bit concerning about what might happen in a few weeks, during spring break. Students are going to disperse for a week. If there's community transmission elsewhere in the country, there's a distinct possibility of some students returning who have been exposed to COVID-19. There's a clear possibility emerging as to why there has been community spreading in California: proper precautions weren't taken in interacting with quarantined patients [nytimes.com] (Link to alternate source [washingtonpost.com]). In the same general region of California, there's now a UC-Davis student being quarantined [ucdavis.edu] for possible exposure to COVID-19. Because of the reported issues involving quarantine procedures, I'm just glad that nobody at Camp Ashland was actually infected [omaha.com].

    One last thing: here's a bit more information about why people are being treated in Omaha [nytimes.com] and the facilities. I didn't find that link until after submitting the story or I'd have included it in the summary.

  • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @05:57AM (1 child)

    by Anonymous Coward on Friday February 28 2020, @05:57AM (#963985)

    I was seeing on CNN (not a reliable source) that New York and various states have their own tests for the Corona Virus and that their tests are better than the tests that the CDC uses (I wouldn’t doubt it) but that what’s holding them back from using it is that they need FDA approval. Hence people that should be tested aren't being tested because the CDC can't keep up with demand.

    First of all if I were state legislators I would do it anyways and tell the federal government that it has nothing to do with trade and is none of their business. This doesn’t look like a power the constitution grants to the federal government so it should be one granted to the states.

    Secondly, the FDA really slows down progress sometimes.

    • (Score: 2) by Coward, Anonymous on Friday February 28 2020, @04:00PM

      by Coward, Anonymous (7017) on Friday February 28 2020, @04:00PM (#964145) Journal

      A real cynic might think that the current administration wants to prevent testing, because the results would make them look bad.

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