IEEE Spectrum has an interesting analysis on why this project failed.
Alphabet's Loon Failed to Bring Internet to the World -- What Went Wrong?
Loon's soaring promise to bring Internet access to the world via high-altitude balloons deflated last week, when the company announced that it will be shutting down. With the announcement, Loon became the latest in a list of tech companies that have been unable to realize the lofty goal of universal Internet access.
The company, a subsidiary of Alphabet (which also includes the subsidiary of Google), sought to bring the Internet to remote communities that were otherwise too difficult to connect.
It's not entirely surprising that Loon wasn't able to close the global connectivity gap, even though the shutdown announcement itself seemingly came out of the blue. While the company had experienced some success in early trials and initial deployments, the reality is that the inspiring mission to "connect the next (or last) billion users" touted by tech companies is more difficult than they often realize.
[...] Any network deployment is going to cost money, of course. And part of the problem with companies like Loon, according to Sonia Jorge, is that they expect unreasonable returns. Jorge is the executive director of the Alliance for Affordable Internet (A4AI), a global initiative to reduce the costs of Internet access, particularly in developing areas. In the tech industry, "very fast growth has yielded expectations of very high and very fast returns," Jorge says, but in reality, such returns are uncommon. That goes double for companies connecting poorer or more remote communities.
[...] And although tech companies like Loon may plummet because they underestimate the challenges facing them, the reality is that providing global Internet access is not impossible. According to a 2020 report from A4AI , the cost of providing affordable 4G-equivalent access to everyone over the age of 10 on the planet by 2030 is about $428 billion—about the same amount of money the world spends on soda per year.
The biggest piece of advice Jorge would give to tech companies like Loon that are looking to make a serious impact in expanding affordable access is to know what they're getting into. In other words, don't guess at how easily you'll be able to access spectrum, or deploy in an area, or anything else. Work with local partners. "Just because you're a wonderful inventor," she says, "don't think you know it all. Because you don't."
Reminds me of the saying: "If all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail!"
What is your take on this subject?
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Google Parent Alphabet to Shut Down Loon, Its Internet-Beaming Balloon Project
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Google parent Alphabet to shut down Loon, its internet-beaming balloon project:
Google parent company Alphabet said Thursday that it's shutting down Loon, a project aimed at beaming down internet connectivity from balloons floating in the stratosphere.
The project was born out of X, Alphabet's self-described moonshot factory for experimental projects, which has also developed the company's driverless car and delivery drone services. Alphabet, however, deemed Loon's business model unsustainable and said it couldn't get costs low enough to continue operation.
"The road to commercial viability has proven much longer and riskier than hoped," Astro Teller, who leads X, said in a blog post. "So we've made the difficult decision to close down Loon."
Loon, which debuted in 2013, was spun out of the X division three years ago. The project was meant to serve rural parts of the world that don't have robust broadband infrastructure, serving as flying cellular towers.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by fakefuck39 on Tuesday February 02 2021, @08:57AM (4 children)
this doesn't sound like internet for billions was the plan here. they did an easy proof of concept - a dish strapped to a cheap balloon, and communicated with it on the ground. now came time for cash from people like google. they got the cash, pocketed most of it, then spent a little of it on proving this thing doesn't work.
because let's see what it takes to make it work. balloons that are subject to unpredictable wind and weather, twisting and turning, strapped with expensive equipment that gets destroyed and constantly need replacement. and the customers who pay for that? oh, that's going to be some poor people in rural remote areas who can't get good internet.
so let's take a rural area that gets 3g right now. a rural village in ukraine. they get enough speed to watch a 720p movie. The unlimited cell plan over there for this is... about $8/month. the income of someone living there is... about $150/month. yeah, let's launch a couple of balloons of equipment for them that cost 50k each and need to be replaced every year and services 4 times a year.
so let's see what "loon" did. what super poor remote place, where people have no money, can you rip off because their government is corrupt? oh, I know, how about Kenya. Where they launched 35 of these things, just 6 months ago, and have since closed up shop.
"Executives with Loon would not reveal the costs of the Telkom contract or any financial arrangements."
well, to me it looks like google gave some fraudsters some money, they kept that money, then google robbed blind some poor people in africa to recoup their costs, and killed this project. the financial arrangements were kicking some of that money back to the corrupt officials who gave google the money.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/world/africa/google-loon-balloon-kenya.html [nytimes.com]
(Score: 2) by Tokolosh on Tuesday February 02 2021, @02:55PM (1 child)
Google spent some of their own money to give it a try. It didn't work out.
What has Ms. Jorge done?
(Score: 2) by fakefuck39 on Tuesday February 02 2021, @04:12PM
and they got a bunch of it back in kenya. i don't know any jorge, but sounds african. maybe she can tell you how much google stole from them.
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 02 2021, @06:06PM
It was a half-assed idea for peacetime use. It's way too labor intensive to maintain on the long term. This is a temporary something to throw up quickly in an emergency when regular service goes down for whatever reason. And you can provide service behind enemy lines :-)
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 5, Insightful) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Tuesday February 02 2021, @06:38PM
I'll tell you what the flaw was:
Google makes money by monetizing people's private data. They didn't want to bring the internet to poor communities: they wanted to bring ubiquitous Google surveillance to those people.
And that's where the flaw is: there's nothing to monetize out of ultra-poor people. They have no money to spend on useless shit pushed by advertisers using Google data (well, your data really) and their consumption habits, sporting habits, lifestyle choices, banking details or lack thereof, is of no interest to anybody.
So had they kept at their balloon internet project, they'd have ended up providing a real service to those community without any return - something Google clearly isn't in business to do.
So they shut it down, because it's not profitable. It's as simple as that.
(Score: 5, Insightful) by MostCynical on Tuesday February 02 2021, @09:08AM (4 children)
balloons
seriously: balloons
"I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
(Score: 2) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Tuesday February 02 2021, @06:30PM (3 children)
Balloons have been bringing you your daily weather forecast reliably for decades. Your point is...?
(Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday February 02 2021, @07:25PM (1 child)
Crazy conspiracies. Those were UFOs... weather balloons.. pfft!
La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
(Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 02 2021, @08:46PM
ufos can only tell you the weather on alpha centauri.
(Score: 2) by MostCynical on Tuesday February 02 2021, @11:50PM
yes, weather balloons are great [stratostar.com]
latency in hours or even days once the balloon pops, waiting for the next one to be launched (and hoping it floats over you, not the other way..)
"I guess once you start doubting, there's no end to it." -Batou, Ghost in the Shell: Stand Alone Complex
(Score: 3, Interesting) by bzipitidoo on Tuesday February 02 2021, @02:20PM
Unrealisitic expectations describes a lot of business plans. Can't even really call such notions plans. They didn't do the homework. Just handwaving. The lack of solid and sober steps and intermediate goals is too easily brushed aside as just the typical business risks any startup faces.
I've been in that kind of startup company. Soon, when things fail to work as hoped, the leaders resort to the unethical. Of course they keep everyone in the dark as much as posslble about the dire state of the finances. When they can't hide that any more, they make unfair requests of the employees, such as forgoing pay and continuing to work for the company, for free, promising to catch up on all the pay when they succeed, which will be real soon now, just need a little more time. This comes in that month when they couldn't make payroll, and so they are starting their begging and pleading (and, yes, even threatening) when they already owe everyone a month of pay.
They may resort to blaming all the underlings for not working hard enough. The company is failing, not because the glorious plan is actually garbage, but because all the peons, despite being deliberately kept in the dark, and told to stay in their lanes, didn't have the brains to figure out what the company really needs, and didn't go above and beyond, way, way above and beyond. And that's why the peons don't deserve to be paid anyway.
They may also hold themselves up as an example. Tell everyone how they personally have gone unpaid. Yeah, not impressed, when their living expenses are way lower than that of us peons, because they could afford to pay off their homes and cars, and are not making rent or loan payments.
One time when the boss needed a ride home because his truck was in the shop, I gave him a lift and he had the cheek to tell me I needed a new car. Soon as I started it, he asked what was that horrible rumbling noise? I told him it was normal, just the engine. He didn't think my 25 year old car with the less than perfect noise dampening of the engine was a suitable ride. I didn't say anything, but I was thinking, very loudly, how about all that back pay, so I can afford a better ride, huh, boss? No? Then I better keep what I have. At least it's paid for. In case you don't fully get the nature of that conversation, don't think for one minute that that was simply sincere concern that my car might be causing me problems. No, he wanted his employees to be massively indebted, with huge car payments and the repo man breathing down their necks, so that they had to have a job, couldn't quit. Of course that scheme doesn't work when the employer can't provide the necessary pay.
(Score: 2) by DannyB on Tuesday February 02 2021, @05:12PM (2 children)
First, I would point out Starlink.
Then I would point out that a high altitude balloon still has to get its internet from some ground station somewhere.
Maybe project Loon should try again. High altitude balloons for internet service could work in a place where internet competitors do not yet exist.
How about high altitude balloons on the moon? The moon's gravity is less, so you need less of a lighter-than-air gas to fill the balloons.
The server will be down for replacement of vacuum tubes, belts, worn parts and lubrication of gears and bearings.
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 02 2021, @06:55PM (1 child)
Reading that last sentence made me dumber...
(Score: 2, Touché) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday February 02 2021, @07:30PM
Don't worry, nobody will notice.
(Score: 2) by oumuamua on Tuesday February 02 2021, @05:28PM
Starlink has outcompeted them.
As this video shows:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FsAVrTz5LKE [youtube.com]
internet speeds are comparable and Loon requires no expensive ground receiver but my guess is the ground receiver pricing will fall with volume. The big Starlink advantage is that once deployed, they have the entire world covered and the equipment lasts 5 years compared to Loon's balloons which last under a year.