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posted by martyb on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:02AM   Printer-friendly

China is building a 2nd base for nuclear missiles, say analysts:

Analysts at the Federation of American Scientists say China is building a second field of silos for launching nuclear missiles in a development that could constitute “the most significant expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal ever”.

The United States-based researchers made the discovery after analysing commercial satellite images, and said on Monday that the field – located near the city of Hami in Xinjiang province – may eventually include about 110 silos.

The new field is about 380km (236 miles) from a base near the city of Yumen in neighbouring Gansu province, where a separate group of researchers earlier this month found construction under way on 120 missile silos.

Altogether, the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force now appears to have 250 silos under construction at Hami, Yumen, as well as at a training ground near the city of Jilantai in Inner Mongolia, wrote the FAS’s Matt Korda and Hans Kristensen.

[...] “The number of new Chinese silos under construction exceeds the number of silo-based ICBMs operated by Russia, and constitutes more than half of the size of the entire US ICBM force,” they wrote. “The Chinese missile silo program constitutes the most extensive silo construction since the US and Soviet missile silo construction during the Cold War.”

However, they stressed that it was unclear how China would operate the new silos, whether it would load all of them with missiles or use a portion as empty decoys. They also noted it was not known how many warheads each missile would carry.


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  • (Score: 2, Flamebait) by Rosco P. Coltrane on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:48AM (9 children)

    by Rosco P. Coltrane (4757) on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:48AM (#1161886)

    unclear how China would operate the new silos, whether it would load all of them with missiles or use a portion as empty decoys. They also noted it was not known how many warheads each missile would carry.

    when it's not you doing the deterrence.

    • (Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:59AM

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:59AM (#1161890)

      It's a stimulus program for military tech, like the empty cities for the construction industry.

    • (Score: 3, Interesting) by driverless on Sunday August 01 2021, @09:56AM (6 children)

      by driverless (4770) on Sunday August 01 2021, @09:56AM (#1161919)

      What they're doing is actually pretty odd, if these really are active-use silos then they've clustered them all within airburst distance of a single warhead rather than dispersing them as widely as possible. We've known about the importance of dispersal of strategic targets for eighty years but this is doing the exact opposite. It doesn't make any sense to do this, which makes me wonder what's really going on there.

      • (Score: 3, Interesting) by bradley13 on Sunday August 01 2021, @02:27PM

        by bradley13 (3053) on Sunday August 01 2021, @02:27PM (#1161961) Homepage Journal

        Sure it makes sense. If the silos would survive a near miss, then only one silo will be destroyed by an incoming missile. To take out 100 silos requires 100 missiles.

        But, and here's the point: nuclear missile are soft targets, subject to "fratricide". You can't send in 100 missiles, because the first one to detonate will destroy the other 99. Which means that your missile field is actually able to survive a first strike. That gives you a lot more strategic flexibility.

        --
        Everyone is somebody else's weirdo.
      • (Score: 3, Interesting) by tangomargarine on Sunday August 01 2021, @07:00PM

        by tangomargarine (667) on Sunday August 01 2021, @07:00PM (#1162015)

        Does it really make a different if you Launch On Warning? Unless somebody manages to completely surprise you with no reaction time, you just launch them all before it hits.

        --
        "Is that really true?" "I just spent the last hour telling you to think for yourself! Didn't you hear anything I said?"
      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @08:00PM (3 children)

        by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @08:00PM (#1162031)

        Perhaps their goal is to increase the rate at which they can launch the missiles. If they think they will launch first, this makes perfect sense.

        Sleep tight.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:25PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:25PM (#1161980)
      Looking at how unstable the USA is I'd say China should get more nukes. Not that China should use them but more to encourage the USA to not use theirs.
  • (Score: 0, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @06:27AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @06:27AM (#1161897)

    Nothing Compared to Malestrom AirForce Base (Mal-strom, "storm of evil") nice spread of tubes of death all across Central Montana. Could never figure why they were there, instead of in New York, or Los Angeles, and putting all those deer and antelope, and elk, and cattle at risk. Not their fight.

  • (Score: 1, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @10:40AM

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @10:40AM (#1161928)

    >> unclear how China would operate the new silos, whether it would load all of them with missiles or use a portion as empty decoys.

    These are actually being built by a Chinese entrepreneur for his new takeout service, FreshGan: "Fresh Gansu Cuisine... Anywhere in the World in 15 Minutes".

  • (Score: 0, Flamebait) by khallow on Sunday August 01 2021, @12:43PM (14 children)

    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 01 2021, @12:43PM (#1161946) Journal
    Looks like they're building two such bases. Unless the FAS is getting solid information from an intelligence agency, what else is the FAS missing?

    This is one of the biggest problems with an opaque government. You never know what they're doing or what the various factions are thinking. Even when you find out what they're doing, it's often years after the decisions were made. This is the heart of Kremlinology [wikipedia.org] - carefully analyzing actions today to figure out what important events happened years ago.
    • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:10PM (11 children)

      by fustakrakich (6150) on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:10PM (#1161972) Journal

      "Kremlinologists" -- That's funny stuff, like today's modern conspiracy theorist:

      ... lack of reliable information about the country forced Western analysts to "read between the lines" and to use the tiniest tidbits, such as the removal of portraits, the rearranging of chairs, positions at the reviewing stand for parades in Red Square, the choice of capital or small initial letters in phrases such as "First Secretary", the arrangement of articles on the pages of the party newspaper Pravda and other indirect signs...

      As for missile count, the story is that China still has some catching up to do.

      --
      La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
      • (Score: 3, Touché) by turgid on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:16PM (1 child)

        by turgid (4318) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:16PM (#1161974) Journal

        Did they count the tea leaves too? And see which way the stripes went on their socks and ties?

        • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @05:14AM

          by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @05:14AM (#1162141) Journal
          If those tea leaves and strips on socks were used by those elites to signal status or favor, then not only would Kremlinologists be doing that, but it would work too!

          It might sound silly, but this sort of stuff was necessary to have any understanding of what was going on in the heads of the elite of these governments.
      • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @04:44AM (8 children)

        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @04:44AM (#1162136) Journal

        "Kremlinologists" -- That's funny stuff, like today's modern conspiracy theorist:

        Except that the "conspiracy" is overt.

        • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Monday August 02 2021, @05:25PM (7 children)

          by fustakrakich (6150) on Monday August 02 2021, @05:25PM (#1162315) Journal

          Always is... "hidden in plain sight"

          So, deep down you're "QAnon", eh?

          --
          La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
          • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @09:50PM (6 children)

            by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @09:50PM (#1162448) Journal

            Always is... "hidden in plain sight"

            Where "plain sight" is a massive country that you're not allowed to poke around in.

            • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Monday August 02 2021, @09:59PM (5 children)

              by fustakrakich (6150) on Monday August 02 2021, @09:59PM (#1162454) Journal

              Yeah, so they're gonna hang the picture of Lenin just a little bit crooked to signal they're invading Poland tonight at 11pm Eastern/10pm Central, but only if the German Chancellor sits across from the Swedish Prime Minister and the waiter serves him beluga caviar from his left side

              --
              La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
              • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @10:06PM (4 children)

                by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @10:06PM (#1162458) Journal

                Yeah, so they're gonna hang the picture of Lenin just a little bit crooked to signal they're invading Poland tonight at 11pm Eastern/10pm Central, but only if the German Chancellor sits across from the Swedish Prime Minister and the waiter serves him beluga caviar from his left side

                Well, if that's how they do it, then they'll do it that way. You're missing that this sort of analysis works. In the real world, subtle status signaling was and is a common feature of authoritarian governments like the USSR or present day China. One can tell who is in favor from their public status, and that in turn can give clues about what the present day policy of the authoritarian government is.

                • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Monday August 02 2021, @10:13PM (3 children)

                  by fustakrakich (6150) on Monday August 02 2021, @10:13PM (#1162462) Journal

                  Ah, so it's just status seeking and adjusting the plumage on your hat. Only happens in "foreign" culture.

                  --
                  La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
                  • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @11:35PM (2 children)

                    by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @11:35PM (#1162499) Journal
                    So a phenomenon is ignorable, if the US does it? Notice that I used the phrase, "opaque government", not "opaque governments that aren't the US". Kremlinology gets used elsewhere too, such as interpreting company marketing.
                    • (Score: 1) by fustakrakich on Tuesday August 03 2021, @12:46AM (1 child)

                      by fustakrakich (6150) on Tuesday August 03 2021, @12:46AM (#1162525) Journal

                      Very revealing that you call it "Kremlinology"

                      --
                      La politica e i criminali sono la stessa cosa..
                      • (Score: 0, Troll) by khallow on Tuesday August 03 2021, @01:50AM

                        by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Tuesday August 03 2021, @01:50AM (#1162544) Journal

                        Very revealing that you call it "Kremlinology"

                        What's a better label to use here?

                        Kremlinology was a systematic study of the observable behavior of an otherwise black box government and culture. That's exactly the situation here with China. So why not reuse a good label again?

    • (Score: 3, Interesting) by Runaway1956 on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:09PM (1 child)

      by Runaway1956 (2926) Subscriber Badge on Sunday August 01 2021, @05:09PM (#1161992) Journal

      It would make sense to build 100 similar bases. And then to put one missile in every 20th or 50th silo. An attacker would have to target 10,000 silos if he were hoping to get all the missiles.

      • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 02 2021, @11:40PM

        by Anonymous Coward on Monday August 02 2021, @11:40PM (#1162500)

        Oh just wait for it, they'll be more silos, maybe not 50 or 100 but they'll be a few more. Meanwhile they're also building fake islands in the South China sea where real nuke warheads in subs are prowling much closer to the rest of the world.

  • (Score: 2, Interesting) by jasassin on Sunday August 01 2021, @01:06PM

    by jasassin (3566) <jasassin@gmail.com> on Sunday August 01 2021, @01:06PM (#1161951) Homepage Journal

    More nuclear missiles! There's never enough. /s

    --
    jasassin@gmail.com GPG Key ID: 0xE6462C68A9A3DB5A
  • (Score: 5, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @02:08PM (3 children)

    by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @02:08PM (#1161960)

    The people in power have been amping up cold war rhetoric for several years.
    Well you got one.

    • (Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:57PM

      by Anonymous Coward on Sunday August 01 2021, @04:57PM (#1161989)

      well, cold war is done to death. how about:
      luke warm war?
      tepid war?
      frigid war?
      honey, call the hvac guy war?

    • (Score: 1) by khallow on Monday August 02 2021, @10:03PM (1 child)

      by khallow (3766) Subscriber Badge on Monday August 02 2021, @10:03PM (#1162455) Journal

      The people in power have been amping up cold war rhetoric for several years. Well you got one.

      China isn't building this because of "rhetoric".

      • (Score: 2) by dry on Tuesday August 03 2021, @05:57AM

        by dry (223) on Tuesday August 03 2021, @05:57AM (#1162579) Journal

        They've seen the quality of the people that America elects to have their finger on the button.

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