In a report released on World Population Day, the U.N. also said global population growth fell below 1% in 2020 for the first time since 1950.
According to the latest U.N. projections, the world's population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and a peak of around 10.4 billion during the 2080s. It is forecast to remain at that level until 2100.
The report says more than half the projected increase in population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
The report, "World Population Prospects 2022," puts the world's population at 7.942 billion now and forecasts it will reach 8 billion in mid-November.
[...] "This is an occasion to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity, and marvel at advancements in health that have extended lifespans and dramatically reduced maternal and child mortality rates," [U.N. Secretary-General] Guterres said in a statement. "At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to one another."
[...] The U.N. projects that in 2050 the United States will remain the third most populous country in the world, behind India and China. Nigeria is projected to be No. 4, followed by Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Congo, Ethiopia and Bangladesh. Russia and Mexico, which are in the top 10 most populous countries in 2022, are projected to lose their ninth and 10th spots in 2050.
"The population of 61 countries or areas are projected to decrease by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050," the report says.
"In countries with at least half a million population, the largest relative reductions in population size over that period, with losses of 20% or more, are expected to take place in Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Serbia and Ukraine."
[...] Wilmoth said high life expectancy and very low levels of fertility and birth rates in European countries, Japan, North America, Australia and New Zealand are driving the tendency toward rapid population aging, and eventually potential population declines.
As a result, over the next few decades, international migration "will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries," the report said.
"By contrast, for the foreseeable future, population increase in low-income and lower-middle-income countries will continue to be driven by an excess of births over deaths," it said.
(Score: 2) by oumuamua on Friday July 15 2022, @11:43PM (2 children)
World Population Day was Jul 11 and Thanos has a greeting:
https://www.genolve.com/design/socialmedia/memes/099fe47a0c7c42b3dd28f54e3d1c3ae5 [genolve.com]
While Musk has the opposite message:
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1545046146548019201 [twitter.com]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @04:43PM (1 child)
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @06:10PM
Just add Good ones to kill the Bad ones, amirite?
(Score: 1, Interesting) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @12:36AM (8 children)
I have fond memories of college bull sessions in the early 90s about this. My room-mates were still thinking that there was a population explosion. I posited that it might merely be a "population shift" since Asian nations were industrializing and likely to develop a middle class comparable to the West's. Their reaction was considerably milder than today's treatment of climate "deniers", but nevertheless dismissed as Henney-Penny to what they perceived as an urgent problem. They may have been projecting 20 billion or more in our lifetime, I don't recall exactly.
That doesn't mean that alarmism won't be justified ever. Just that it wasn't in this case, and I had some sound theory backing my rejection of the alarmism despite some very well educated people thinking the opposite... or were they just educated enough to write books because fear sells?
Only time will tell. With a little luck, there will be 8 billion people looking to throw another alarmist on the fire during the upcoming harsh Winters.
(Score: 2, Troll) by legont on Saturday July 16 2022, @02:54AM (5 children)
This winter quite a few Europeans would wish global warming were true.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Saturday July 16 2022, @08:06AM (4 children)
The problem with "global warming" is that it's a misnomer. Or rather, only telling half the story. While generally the climate gets warmer, weather patterns also get way more erratic and chaotic, with more extreme levels. Instead of just having 2 degrees more all over, what you get is 10 degrees more in summer and 8 degrees less in winter.
(Score: 2) by crafoo on Saturday July 16 2022, @05:37PM (1 child)
[citation needed]
Complete bullshit.
(Score: 3, Informative) by Opportunist on Saturday July 16 2022, @06:52PM
Look, I don't care if you believe it. I'm going to be dead before it gets to the point where it would affect me and I don't have kids. If you want to fuck up the planet, more power to you.
Your kids will suffer. Not mine.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @06:13PM
Apparently this is too complimicated. Try saying it like "climate GOOD" or "climate BAD".
(Score: 2) by legont on Saturday July 16 2022, @11:09PM
There is only one truth in all this. WE NEED MORE ENERGY. Sorry for caps, but in the end whoever has more energy wins. Energy will save all and any problems. Any agenda - be it liberal, green, rainbow - loses because they call for less energy use. End of story.
"Wealth is the relentless enemy of understanding" - John Kenneth Galbraith.
(Score: 1) by shrewdsheep on Saturday July 16 2022, @10:57AM (1 child)
I think your room-mates were right, maybe for the wrong reasons. Even ever diminishing growth rates are now still eating into remaining resources at increasing proportions. Unfortunately points of no return have been passed, concerning global warming, water sustainability, and biodiversity. The only hope is a full roll-out of sustainable nuclear energy across the planet to keep it livable, although only in highly contained environments. This does not seem to happen though.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @06:15PM
qUIck leT's fLY to maRs!
(Score: 2) by Barenflimski on Saturday July 16 2022, @12:54AM (2 children)
So many friends!!!
(Score: 1) by Cyrix6x86 on Sunday July 17 2022, @02:18AM (1 child)
With 8 billion friends at your birthday party, at a rate of giving one high five per second continuously, it would take you 253 years to greet them all.
(Score: 2) by Barenflimski on Sunday July 17 2022, @04:00AM
That's a great point. I'm going to need a pope-mobile for that.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @01:22AM (2 children)
> more than half the projected increase in population up to 2050 will be concentrated in just eight countries: Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
Can we start air-dropping condoms now, please? These are the targets!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @02:51AM
AIDS 2.0 will do
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 17 2022, @02:50AM
Someone need to tell them about abstinence. It really works!
(Score: 2) by MIRV888 on Saturday July 16 2022, @05:18AM (2 children)
With resources being stretched thinner and thinner we are approaching the 'can't support all the humans' line. Not that we do so now.
That means war. Soon
(Score: 2) by Opportunist on Saturday July 16 2022, @08:08AM
Nah. Just a new migration period [wikipedia.org]. And guess what, it already started.
(Score: 3, Informative) by canopic jug on Saturday July 16 2022, @09:49AM
With resources being stretched thinner and thinner we are approaching the 'can't support all the humans' line. Not that we do so now.
That line was crossed many decades ago.
The annual Earth Overshoot Day [overshootday.org] (warning for electricity-guzzling javascript) is when humanity's consumption has surpassed the planet's ability to regenerate said resources. In other words, if you look at the number of people the Earth can support, then by that number the planet is very, very badly overpopulated. By their figures, it's worsening every year. Sure there are some square meters here and there without people standing on them at this moment, but that does not lessen the severity of the situation. At the end of the day, it's carrying capacity which counts and most countries have exceeded theirs by a great amount.
Money is not free speech. Elections should not be auctions.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by EJ on Saturday July 16 2022, @05:39AM (1 child)
Lake Mead is almost gone. Time will only tell what the freshwater situation becomes on other continents with even higher populations.
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Sunday July 17 2022, @02:37AM
You've got a lot of desert, oceans for most of your borders, and lots of experience with pipelines. Maybe it's time for some solar powered desalination plants.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by deimtee on Saturday July 16 2022, @11:50AM (1 child)
Technology development impacts everything. Anyone who predicts stuff 60 years out is blowing smoke up your arse,
Also, anyone who says that economic development permanently lowers population growth doesn't understand evolution.
These two factors alone mean that no-one has a clue what things will be like in 20 years. Extrapolating to 60 years is fantasy.
200 million years is actually quite a long time.
(Score: 0, Funny) by Anonymous Coward on Saturday July 16 2022, @06:35PM
And let me guess... the solution is tax cuts and less regulations for job creators? Cretin.