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An Anonymous Coward writes:
While many pundits are trying to write the prequels to Brexit and bemoaning how the "stay" position wasn't properly communicated, the banks have forged ahead to Episode V and are quite happy to predict a recession for the UK in the next quarters. From https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/usd/5095-pound-to-dollar-exchange-rate-222311:
The British people have voted to leave the European Union, and this time they will take full ownership of any negative economic consequences - there are no bankers to blame for any negative economic impacts.
Bank of America's Ralf Preusser believes the UK is headed for recession as a result of the increased uncertainty businesses now face, noting:
"Prolonged uncertainty could lead investors - including residential investors - to postpone decisions. We think a recession in the UK will ensue, which cuts our calendar year 2017 GDP growth forecast to 0.2% from 2.3%, even with the Bank of England (BoE) stimulating."
[...] Barclays have confirmed they see GDP growth falling to -0.1% in the third and fourth quarters of 2016.
The Guardian has a slightly different Star Wars analogy, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/27/britain-boris-cricket-leave-lies-referendum-promises
"The pound is stable," explained Johnson, minutes before the pound was revealed to have fallen to a 31-year low, on a morning of financial activity we'll call Episode V: The Experts Strike Back.
At the time of writing [2016-06-28 @02:45 UTC], the current exchange rate has 1 GBP worth $1.331USD. One of the first hits on a search provided this 60-day historical perspective.
(Score: 4, Insightful) by q.kontinuum on Tuesday June 28 2016, @05:43AM
Or maybe it's the different way around, and tge pound is worth less because people are investing less in GB, thus needing less of the currency. Low pound will help exports, but imports are more expensive. Exports are hurt otoh by companies moving out leaving Britain with less to export.
Registered IRC nick on chat.soylentnews.org: qkontinuum
(Score: 2, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 28 2016, @05:48AM
Bingo. Now that the UK will have less access to euro markets, there is more incentive for manufacturing to move out of the UK. Any factory that was on the margin is now looking at a future in the red. Buh-bye!
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 28 2016, @05:57AM
Except that's what already happened.
You see, businesses want to sell to the UK people. But they want to build elsewhere.
They want to sell into well off places and do their slave labor in poverty stricken places.
With the UK out of the EU they are will be free to institute trade tarrifs. This makes it more expensive to exploit poor foreign workers while selling into the better off places (and devaluing local made goods). So, it makes it cheaper to manufacture in the UK if you want to sell to the UK.
This makes it better for the UK people and brings jobs back into the nation. In the EU this can't happen because of the fucked up free trade deals, that benefit only elites and bankers.
Has it been so long that you totally forgot about how tariffs work?
(Score: 1, Insightful) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 28 2016, @06:04AM
> Except that's what already happened.
Typical black and white analysis.
It has happened to some factories and now it is going to happen to even more factories.
> This makes it better for the UK people and brings jobs back into the nation.
Only for goods consumed within the UK. Kiss all those export based jobs good-bye. And simultaneously kiss those cheap foreign goods goodbye too. Double whammy.
Maybe, if everything goes right, 20 years down the road, things will start looking up again. But betting on an outcome that requires near perfect handling of all crisis during a downturn is magical thinking.
(Score: 2) by VLM on Tuesday June 28 2016, @12:55PM
Kiss all those export based jobs good-bye.
I might have missed something in the discussion, but you are pondering a theoretical rise in the pound in which case you're correct, or the real world drop of the pound in which case you have it backwards?
(Score: 0) by Anonymous Coward on Tuesday June 28 2016, @07:19AM
They want to sell into well off places and do their slave labor in poverty stricken places.
I see... Now it makes sense. Britain is deliberately becoming poor in order to get more jobs in the future. Great idea. It's some way to go because they have to get even poorer now to make up for the disadvantage of not having direct access to the EU market, but I'm confident they will manage.
(Score: 2) by fritsd on Tuesday June 28 2016, @09:22AM
All EU member states are obliged to implement the EU Working Time Directive [wikipedia.org] in their laws.
That says that workers have a right to refuse to work more than 48 hours per week, without backlash. And some holiday decrees.
It's part of the Health and Safety laws.
Now that the UK goes out of the EU, in 2 years time or less the UK companies are no longer bound to this law.
IF the UK people vote for the Tories or the UKIP, which they most probably will.
So it is more profitable for the company owners to polish their whips and wait at most 2 years. And the coming recession might mean that they can lower the wages, as well.
The UK is out from under the yoke of the slave-driving EU! Yay! Freedom!
(that was sarcasm btw)
(Score: 2) by VLM on Tuesday June 28 2016, @01:00PM
If the majority of UK want it that way, shouldn't they have it that way?
I suspect the reverse.
There will be a lot of political "fun" over the next months ironing everything out.
Will working time be like the USA model of local building codes where in theory every dumpy municipality in the country (like 10K of them) COULD have different rules but in practice other than the finest hairs of details they're all about the same and all mostly sane, or will it be like water rights in the USA where there some geographic scientific impact but mostly a steaming pile of corruption and historical precedent (or like concealed carry state laws, which are all over the map)?