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posted by
martyb
on Sunday March 17 2019, @04:52AM
from the Economics-and-science-may-be-related-after-all dept.
from the Economics-and-science-may-be-related-after-all dept.
The Experts Keep Getting the US Economy Wrong - and of course they do: economics is a mushy, highly politicized bag of conjecture. And, even if economists could somehow collect unbiased data, process it objectively, and report their analysis without fear of being replaced if they present an unpopular result, the "hard" scientists continue to tear away at the foundations of reality with a proof that Wigner was right about his friend after all: there are irreconcilable realities at the foundations of particle physics, we're just living in a probabilistic consensus above the paradoxes. At least, for a little while.
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This is clearly another case of too many mad scientists, and not enough
hunchbacks.
(Score: 3, Insightful) by JoeMerchant on Thursday March 21 2019, @12:41PM (4 children)
You're skirting Heisenberg in all of this: _iff_ an accurate economic model were developed, proven and published, it would fundamentally change the economics which it predicts because lots of (but certainly not all) people would start acting on the accurate information which it provides.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 3, Insightful) by HiThere on Thursday March 21 2019, @05:58PM (3 children)
That's true too. But if the information were publicly available, then I think the feedback could, in principle, and within limits, be figured in. Of course there's a big difference between "in principle" and "in practice".
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Friday March 22 2019, @12:08PM (2 children)
I think one of the major impediments to accurate economic modeling is the obfuscation, secret hoarding, and distortion of the input data by those who hope to gain benefit for themselves at the expense of others.
🌻🌻 [google.com]
(Score: 2) by HiThere on Friday March 22 2019, @06:10PM (1 child)
That's a real problem, but I don't think the modeling is currently good enough that that isn't lost in the noise level.
Javascript is what you use to allow unknown third parties to run software you have no idea about on your computer.
(Score: 2) by JoeMerchant on Saturday March 23 2019, @01:05AM
"Big Data" should, soon, provide sufficient source data for accurate modeling, if anyone can manage to tap a sufficiently large, accurate, and unbiased subset of it. But, yeah, most of the big data projects I've had any contact with resemble a small group of ants who have wandered away from the nest and stepped into a firehose outlet.
🌻🌻 [google.com]