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New sunspot cycle could be one of the strongest on record, new research predicts: Scientists use an extended, 22-year solar cycle to make the forecast:

In direct contradiction to the official forecast, a team of scientists led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is predicting that the Sunspot Cycle that started this fall could be one of the strongest since record-keeping began.

In a new article published in Solar Physics, the research team predicts that Sunspot Cycle 25 will peak with a maximum sunspot number somewhere between approximately 210 and 260, which would put the new cycle in the company of the top few ever observed.

The cycle that just ended, Sunspot Cycle 24, peaked with a sunspot number of 116, and the consensus forecast from a panel of experts convened by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting that Sunspot Cycle 25 will be similarly weak. The panel predicts a peak sunspot number of 115.

If the new NCAR-led forecast is borne out, it would lend support to the research team's unorthodox theory -- detailed in a series of papers published over the last decade -- that the Sun has overlapping 22-year magnetic cycles that interact to produce the well-known, approximately 11-year sunspot cycle as a byproduct. The 22-year cycles repeat like clockwork and could be a key to finally making accurate predictions of the timing and nature of sunspot cycles, as well as many of the effects they produce, according to the study's authors.

"Scientists have struggled to predict both the length and the strength of sunspot cycles because we lack a fundamental understanding of the mechanism that drives the cycle," said NCAR Deputy Director Scott McIntosh, a solar physicist who led the study. "If our forecast proves correct, we will have evidence that our framework for understanding the Sun's internal magnetic machine is on the right path.

Journal Reference:
Scott W. McIntosh, Sandra Chapman, Robert J. Leamon, et al. Overlapping Magnetic Activity Cycles and the Sunspot Number: Forecasting Sunspot Cycle 25 Amplitude [open], Solar Physics (DOI: 10.1007/s11207-020-01723-y)

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upstart writes in with an IRC submission for aristarchus_:

U.S. physicists rally around ambitious plan to build fusion power plant:

U.S. fusion scientists, notorious for squabbling over which projects to fund with their field's limited budget, have coalesced around an audacious goal. A 10-year plan presented last week to the federal Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee is the first since the community tried to formulate such a road map in 2014 and failed spectacularly. It calls for the Department of Energy (DOE), the main sponsor of U.S. fusion research, to prepare to build a prototype power plant in the 2040s that would produce carbon-free electricity by harnessing the nuclear process that powers the Sun.

The plan formalizes a goal set out 2 years ago by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and embraced in a March report from a 15-month-long fusion community planning process. It also represents a subtle but crucial shift from the basic research that officials in DOE's Office of Science have favored. "The community urgently wants to move forward with fusion on a time scale that can impact climate change," says Troy Carter, a fusion physicist at the University of California, Los Angeles, who chaired the planning committee. "We have to get started."

An Anonymous Coward writes:

In 2018 employees of two companies, Beijing Baice Technology and Shenzhen Zhipu Technology, planted malware on devices sold by Chinese smartphone maker Gionee with the intent to activate the software to take over user phones. The malware was in the form of an SDK wrapped up in an update to Story Lock Screen, a screen-locker app that came preinstalled with Gionee devices.

Court documents say that between December 2018 to October 2019, more than 20 million Gionee devices across the world received more than 2.88 billion "pull functions" (ads), generating more than 27.85 million Chinese yuan ($4.26 million) in profit for the two companies.

The four persons received prison sentences ranging from 3 to 3.5 years and fines of 200,000 Chinese yuan ($30,500) each. Shenzhen Zhipu Technology also received a separate fine of 400,000 Chinese yuan ($61,000).

Crime pays.

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upstart writes in with an IRC submission:

Premiere security firm FireEye says it was breached by nation-state hackers:

FireEye, a $3.5 billion company that helps customers respond to some of the world's most sophisticated cyberattacks, has itself been hacked, most likely by a well-endowed nation-state that made off with "red-team" attack tools used to pierce network defenses.

The revelation, made in a press release posted after the close of stock markets on Tuesday, is a significant event. With a market capitalization of $3.5 billion and a some of the most seasoned employees in the security industry, the company's defenses are formidable. Despite this, attackers were able to burrow into FireEye's heavily fortified network using techniques no one in the company had ever seen before.

The hack also raises the specter that a group that was already capable of penetrating a company with FireEye's security prowess and resources is now in possession of proprietary attack tools, a theft that could make the hackers an even greater threat to organizations all over the world. FireEye said the stolen tools didn't included any zeroday exploits. FireEye shares fell about 7 percent in extended trading following the disclosure.

So far, the company has seen no evidence that the tools are actively being used in the wild and isn't sure if the attackers plan to use them. Such tools are used by so-called red teams, which mimic malicious hackers in training exercises that simulate real-world hack attacks. FireEye has released a trove of signatures and other countermeasures that customers can use to detect and repel the attacks in the event that the tools are used. Some researchers who reviewed the countermeasures said they appeared to show that the tools weren't particularly sensitive.

Also at www.schneier.com and www.securityweek.com

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upstart writes in with an IRC submission:

NASA selects cadre of astronauts for Artemis missions - SpaceNews:

NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine announced at the Dec. 9 meeting of the National Space Council at the Kennedy Space Center that the agency selected 18 members of its current astronaut corps for a new "Artemis Team." Those astronauts will be eligible to be assigned for future Artemis missions, starting with the Artemis 2 flight of the Orion spacecraft around the moon.

[...] The 18 astronauts — nine women and nine men — are a diverse subset of the overall NASA astronaut corps. Some have flown multiple missions and spent almost a year in space, while others are rookies yet to make their first spaceflight. Two of them, Vic Glover and Kate Rubins, are currently on the International Space Station.

[...] NASA has yet to assign crews to any Artemis missions. At a Dec. 7 media briefing to discuss a report on the science that could be done on Artemis 3, Ken Bowersox, deputy associate administrator of NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate, said the "flight specific" training for that first landing mission would start a year and a half to two years before the mission. "So, we still have a little bit of time before we get there."

[...] The astronauts who are part of the Artemis Team, such as Anne McClain, did not seem concerned about when they might go on the moon during a media availability after the council meeting. "Either I'm going to walk on the moon or one of my friends is going to walk on the moon, and both of those scenarios are beyond my wildest dreams when I was a kid," she said.

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upstart writes in with an IRC submission:

Amazon Sidewalk will be enabled by default on Echo devices:

Last year, Amazon announced Sidewalk, a shared network designed to keep your smart devices connected beyond the reach of the typical WiFi router. In order to do that, it'll utilize certain devices as "Sidewalk Bridge" connections, such as Ring cameras and Echo products. Sidewalk isn't live just yet, but the company has started informing customers last week that existing Echo devices will have this Sidewalk connectivity enabled by default. Amazon does note, however, that you can choose to opt out. And if you do so now, you can turn it off before Sidewalk goes live.

[...] These Bridge devices share a small portion of your internet bandwidth which is pooled together to provide these services to you and your neighbors."

The company has attempted to address privacy concerns by saying that all data has multiple layers of encryption and that neighbors who pool their bandwidth together can't view data from each other's devices. If that still doesn't allay your fears, you can follow the instructions above (or in the screenshotted email below) to opt out of Sidewalk altogether.

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upstart writes in with an IRC submission:

Facebook sued by FTC, states over alleged abuse of monopoly power:

The Federal Trade Commission and a coalition of more than 40 states and territories sued Facebook on Wednesday, alleging the social media giant had illegally stifled competition by snapping up rivals to protect its monopoly power in social networking.

The joint actions focus on Facebook's key acquisitions of Instagram, a photo-sharing service, and WhatsApp, an encrypted messaging app. The deals sealed Facebook's dominance in social networking, the lawsuits contend.

[...] "For nearly a decade, Facebook has used its dominance and monopoly power to crush smaller rivals and snuff out competition, all at the expense of everyday users," New York Attorney General Letitia James said in a statement. "Today, we are taking action to stand up for the millions of consumers and many small businesses that have been harmed by Facebook's illegal behavior.

Facebook's alleged monopoly has harmed consumers, resulting in fewer choices for social networking because it isn't easy for users to migrate their data to other platforms. The social media giant, which makes money from ads, has also come under fire for not doing enough to protect the privacy of its 2.7 billion monthly users.

The FTC complaint, filed in a federal court, calls for Facebook to divest Instagram and WhatsApp. It also seeks to have future Facebook acquisitions subject to approval before they are completed.

Facebook didn't immediately comment on the lawsuits.

The state lawsuit, filed by 46 state attorneys general and Guam and the District of Columbia[*], comes as lawmakers and regulators scrutinize the the power tech giants wield. In addition to Wednesday's actions, the DOJ's antitrust division has been talking to developers about their interactions with Oculus, the virtual reality headset maker Facebook owns, Bloomberg reported last week.

[...] Facebook has said the company's investment in Instagram and WhatsApp helped fuel the growth of both. The social network has noted that regulators reviewed the deals around the time of the transactions and didn't find a reason to stop them from moving forward.

Facebook has also said social media is a competitive space, citing rivals such as short-form video app TikTok, short-messaging site Twitter and Google-owned video platform YouTube.

Here's a link to the lawsuit filed by the FTC (PDF).

The lawsuit brought by the states (PDF) has participants from 46 states, Washington DC, and one territory (Guam):

*SPOILER* (click to show) *SPOILER* (click to hide)

Plaintiff States are Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, the territory of Guam, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.

Not participating in the state lawsuit are: Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, South Dakota.

Also at Ars Technica.

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aristarchus writes:

Not breaking news, but a bit of intellectual history is always a pleasant distraction: the BBC on the House of Wisdom, and the introduction of Arabic numberals to Europe.

How modern mathematics emerged from a lost Islamic library:

The House of Wisdom sounds a bit like make believe: no trace remains of this ancient library, destroyed in the 13th Century, so we cannot be sure exactly where it was located or what it looked like.

But this prestigious academy was in fact a major intellectual powerhouse in Baghdad during the Islamic Golden Age, and the birthplace of mathematical concepts as transformative as the common zero and our modern-day "Arabic" numerals.

Founded as a private collection for caliph Harun Al-Rashid in the late 8th Century then converted to a public academy some 30 years later, the House of Wisdom appears to have pulled scientists from all over the world towards Baghdad, drawn as they were by the city's vibrant intellectual curiosity and freedom of expression (Muslim, Jewish and Christian scholars were all allowed to study there).

An archive as formidable in size as the present-day British Library in London or the Bibliothèque Nationale of Paris, the House of Wisdom eventually became an unrivalled centre for the study of humanities and sciences, including mathematics, astronomy, medicine, chemistry, geography, philosophy, literature and the arts – as well as some more dubious subjects such as alchemy and astrology.

And, of course, centres of higher learning are commonly attacked by barbarians, so ‎ بيت الحكمة shared the fate of the Library of Alexandria, Taxila, and Nalanda:

upstart writes in with an IRC submission for aristarchus_:

Bees Paint Animal Poo on Their Homes to Repel Giant Hornets:

Insects don't come much cuter than the humble honey bee. Those fetching stripes, the "waggle" dance they do to tell each other where they've found nom-noms, that thing where they smear buffalo crap all over their hives.

Excuse me—the more scientific term is dung. But whatever you call it, the fact remains that the Asian honey bee species Apis cerana flies around collecting bird and water buffalo poo not with its hind legs, like it does with pollen, but with its mouth. Back at the colony, it applies the dung as "spots" around the entrance to the hive. That might seem like bad housekeeping, but scientists just showed that there's a brilliant method to this scatological madness: Heavily spotted colonies repel the bees' archenemy, the giant hornet Vespa soror, a close cousin of the infamous Vespamandarina or Asian giant hornet (colloquially dubbed the "murder hornet") that's invaded the US.

If you knew what Vespa soror was capable of, you might not be so quick to judge these bees. At nearly an inch and a half long, the hornet wields massive mandibles that quickly guillotine Asian honey bees, which are about a quarter of its size. When one of them finds a nest, it slices up any workers that mount a defense and releases pheromones that tag the colony for its compatriots to find. Soon, reinforcements swoop in, the formidable air force gnawing at the small opening of the nest to fit their outsized bodies through.

upstart writes in with an IRC submission for Runaway1956:

Roman subjects paid emperor piles of silver to leave them alone, inscription reveals:

Nicopolis ad Istrum was founded by the Roman Emperor Trajan at the beginning of the second century. It quickly grew to be a thriving metropolis, populated by artisans and full of sculpture and ornate architecture; the city even minted its own coins, according to the UNESCO World Heritage Centre.

But the city's inhabitants may have found themselves in a potentially dangerous predicament when Emperor Commodus was assassinated in A.D. 192. Five men vied for the vacancy; the city likely threw its support behind one of the losers and had to prove to the new Emperor Severus that they could be trusted.

"That's why they had probably decided to write a letter to the emperor, begging him for mercy, and bringing him the sum of 700,000 denarii (Roman silver coins) as a gift for their loyalty," Chakarov explained. "The recently restored monument is actually an answer of the Emperor Septimius Severus and his son Caracalla to the citizens of Nicopolis ad Istrum. They describe their victories and state that they receive[d] this gift by people who had taken 'the right side.'"

Because the emperor's response was so important to the town, they carved his words into a limestone monument standing about 10 feet (3 meters) tall and 3 feet (1 m) wide, and weighing about 2 tons (2 metric tons), [archaeologist Kalin] Chakarov said.

[...] Emperor Severus was clearly pleased with the citizens' gesture, praising the townsfolk for their "zeal" and declaring "You have shown thereby that you are men of good will and loyalty and are anxious to have the better standing in our judgment of you."

More details and pictures can be found at Archaeology in Bulgaria.

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upstart writes in with an IRC submission for c0lo:

Russian 'doomsday' plane's radio equipment stolen by thieves:

Reports say unknown thieves broke into the Ilyushin Il-80 plane at an airfield in the southern region of Rostov.

It is unclear when the incident took place, but 39 units of equipment and five radio boards were taken.

[...] Military experts say the aircraft is one of four Il-80s designed to be used as airborne command posts for Russian officials, including the president, in the event of a nuclear conflict. Interfax news agency describes them as among Russia's most classified aircraft.

[...] Interfax said the Ilyushin Il-80 aircraft had been undergoing scheduled repairs since the beginning of 2019.

All equipment had been intact at the last inspection on 26 November, according to broadcaster Ren-TV, which first reported the break-in. Investigators took fingerprints and shoeprints from inside the aircraft, Ren-TV added.

[...] In the event of a nuclear war, the Russian president would board the aircraft, where they could order the launch of intercontinental ballistic missiles and make other strategic decisions.

With no external windows except in the cockpit, the aircraft are designed to have some protection from the effects of a nuclear blast.

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MostCynical writes:

The Sydney Morning Herald reports that the biggest overhaul of Australia's national security laws in four decades will see ASIO (Australian Security Intelligence Organisation — the nation's domestic intelligence agency) given powers to spy on Australians when they return from overseas and who had been working for a foreign power.

Intelligence review recommends biggest overhaul of national security laws since 1980s:

A 1600-page review conducted by former ASIO head Dennis Richardson has recommended the government establish a single Act to govern the use of electronic surveillance powers, requiring the repealing and rewriting of nearly 1000 pages of existing law. The government has accepted 199 of the review's 203 recommendations either in full or "in principle".

At present, foreign intelligence agencies such as the Australian Secret Intelligence Service and the Australian Signals Directorate can spy on Australians suspected of working for a foreign power while they are overseas, but ASIO cannot continue that covert activity once they are back in Australia.

After the changes to the law, ASIO's director-general will be able to seek a warrant from from the Attorney-General to allow ASIO to collect intelligence on Australians linked to a foreign power once they have returned home.

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Freeman writes:

Cyberpunk 2077 could trigger seizures in photosensitive players [Updated]:

Epileptic gamers who are sensitive to flashing lights and strobing effects may need to take special care when playing Cyberpunk 2077 after its release later this week.

Game Informer Associate Editor Liana Ruppert wrote yesterday about her experience with a grand mal seizure while playing a pre-release version of the game. The seizure was triggered by the game's short introductory cutscene for the "braindance" interface. That scene features a device flashing bright, screen-filling red and white lights at the player in an increasing cadence before sending them into a virtual world to explore another character's memories.
[...]
Update 12:56pm EST: CD Projekt Red does include a seizure warning in Cyberpunk 2077's End User License Agreement, telling players the game "may contain flashing lights and images, which may induce epileptic seizures." No similar warning appears on screen at any point during the game.

Update 3pm EST: CD Projekt Red has since directly responded to Game Informer's report in the form of a Twitter post: "We're working on adding a separate warning in the game, aside from the one that exists in the EULA. Regarding a more permanent solution, Dev team is currently exploring that and will be implementing it as soon as possible."

TimeShift also had a nice sequence near the end of the game with lots of flashing lightning arcs in a very dark scene. It's not a new concept or problem. It just affects such a small percentage of people, let alone players, that there's not been a good solution to the problem. Other than including a warning. A prominent notice is desirable for games that have especially troublesome scenes.

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2020-12-09 23:23:24 UTC: Launch went smoothly as did ascent to altitude and leanover to "bellyflop" orientation. Was able to right itself back to vertical but had too much speed at time of reaching earth. Got big boom on impact. SN9 has been waiting patiently in the wings (as well as SN10 through SN15, in different degrees of completion). Which one will be next and how soon will it be? Can't wait to find out! --martyb

2020-12-09 21:25:12 UTC: Tentative T-0 now at 4:40 PM CST / 2240 UTC.

2020-12-09 21:03:13 UTC at T-02:06: "Clock paused. Standing by for new T-0."

2020-12-09 20:44:45 UTC: SpaceX has put up a new live feed for their SN8 (Serial Number 8) Starship test flight. The feed is currently active; launch is expected in the next few minutes. --martyb

Original story follows.

Freeman writes:

Tesla plans to raise another $5 billion as value soars above $600 billion:

Tesla is planning to raise another $5 billion from Wall Street, the company announced in a Tuesday morning filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. It will be the company's third round of fundraising this year and will bring its 2020 fundraising to $12 billion.

It's a good time for Tesla to raise money because Tesla's stock price hit a record high of $640 on Tuesday—a more than seven-fold increase since the start of 2020. Tesla's market capitalization is now around $600 billion, which means that Tesla's existing shareholders will give up less than 1 percent of their stake from the stock sale.

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